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Join Draft Buddy 13-Run Baseball Pool

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13-run baseball pool

This is mostly right. Thrills of baseball. No skill required. And for up to 30 players. It’s the return of our (now annual) 13-run baseball pool!

Our 13-run baseball pool is back! Pick a team, sit back and cheer (or jeer). That is all there is to it. The first person whose team scores 14 different run totals from 0-13 starting MLB Opening Day on March 28 is the winner.

Last year we ran this two times over the MLB season. The inaugural pool started May 1, with member brentnap winning the American League side thanks to the Cleveland Indians. Yours truly won the National League side thanks to the Milwaukee Brewers. It finished July 8, which I am told is fairly quick for 13-run baseball pool standards.

The second pool started July 1. We crowned member MabeRuth the NL winner with, again, the Brew Crew. In the AL, no team got to 14 check marks and it ended in a four-way tie for first.

Join 2019 13-Run Baseball Pool

To join our 2019 version, simply comment below stating the team you want to select. No one can have the same team, so check the available teams and comments before posting. That is all there is to it, and I will update the table.

Last year we ran separate AL and NL contests, but we will for now limit to one team per member. The only other rule I think worth mentioning is we will start counting stats on March 28, and not include the games played in Japan on March 20 and 21. Sorry Athletics and Mariners, backers.

I am taking the Colorado Rockies this year. Good luck!

American League

Team012345678910111213Count
BAL000000000000000
BOS (mikeadamson)000000000000000
CLE000000000000000
CWS000000000000000
DET000000000000000
HOU (Mastrana)000000000000000
KC000000000000000
LAA000000000000000
MIN000000000000000
NYY (enid666)000000000000000
OAK (Robert)000000000000000
SEA000000000000000
TB000000000000000
TEX000000000000000
TOR000000000000000

National League

Team012345678910111213Count
ARI000000000000000
ATL (kopasetic)000000000000000
CHC (krby13)000000000000000
CIN (Andy L.)000000000000000
COL (Mike)000000000000000
LAD000000000000000
MIA000000000000000
MIL000000000000000
NYM (Exspell)000000000000000
PHI (wallyworld)000000000000000
PIT (straw801)000000000000000
SD000000000000000
SF000000000000000
STL (Steve P.)000000000000000
WAS000000000000000

H2H Points Fantasy Baseball League (Ongoing) Draft Recap

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Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees

The Draft Buddy members head-to-head points fantasy baseball league draft is underway. Continuing from my draft prep post, we can call this continuing draft prep, since it is a slow draft, or draft recap, or a bit of both.

We started Monday morning with a 6-hour timer, but frankly, other than one longer stoppage, it hasn’t been very slow. Tuesday morning now and we are through pick 4.08 in this 12-team H2H points fantasy baseball draft. I am drafting from the 12th spot so a long wait for me after each pair of picks.

I am going to use the same format as the prior post, so keep checking back in for ongoing updates.

H2H Points Fantasy Baseball

Tuesday, 8:50am

As mentioned, this is a fantasy points league. This is an important distinction from a roto league, and most fantasy baseball analysis that is based on standard 5X5 roto, or category scoring. In this league, ratios are (mostly) meaningless. Of course if a player earns exceptionally poor ratios then they are going to be riding the pine or off their Major League Baseball team roster eventually, but there is no direct impact on fantasy league scoring.

Fantrax points fantasy baseball scoringWe are doing this league on Fantrax and using their default scoring. You can review 2018 season player stats with Fantrax scoring. The top hitter who hit under 30 HR in this scoring is Trea Turner, checking in at #13 with his 19 HR and 43 SB.

Bah! Live blog format doesn’t work well with constant distractions! Off to take my daughter and her friend to a swimming course they are taking while on spring break. Back in an hour with some actual draft pick updates…

Import Draft Results From Fantrax

Tuesday, 10:20am

As I was saying, knowing the impact of the scoring system (plus number of teams, lineup requirements, etc.) is crucial to properly value players for your draft. That is where Draft Buddy helps immensely. With baseball in particular, there are a much wider range of league types than most fantasy football leagues, and points versus roto is a great example.

Before we get to the draft picks, I cooked up a new video demonstrating the Fantrax integration features in Draft Buddy. These allow you to import team names, keepers and most importantly, draft results. This makes tracking your draft so much easier and faster. Love this feature.

If you already use fantasy football Draft Buddy and draft on MyFantasyLeague.com, then you know what a benefit this is. The Fantrax integration for baseball works very much the same.

Round 1

Tuesday, 11:40am

Lets get to some draft picks or I will never get caught up. We are now into the middle of Round 5 as of writing this, but lets take a look a round at a time. The draft started with, no surprise, Mike Trout going number one overall. My projections score him 40 points higher than Mookie Betts, who went number two overall.

points fantasy baseball league round 1

As shown back in the prior draft prep post, starting pitchers accounted for half of the Top 12 in my overall rankings output from Draft Buddy, including spots two, three and four. So I really was wondering when the first pitcher would get drafted. I didn’t really expect second overall, but maybe three. Max Scherzer lasted to pick six, which to me, ends up being a really good value for Kerry.

Jacob deGrom went immediately after Scherzer. I thought our own @Roto_Chris (articles, Twitter) might take a starting pitcher, as we discussed the pitcher-heavy valuations for this draft and he continued to jibe me about starting the draft with two pitchers. He went Bryce Harper though, whose ADP is 16th overall currently, so a sign the fantasy points favoring power hitters are impacting the draft.

Ronald Acuna is surprisingly absent from our first round. Don’t see that very often. I did end up taking a starting pitcher in Chris Sale. There were good choices with only Scherzer and deGrom drafted at SP ahead of Sale, but I still have him a notch ahead of Corey Kluber and Justin Verlander.

Round 2

Wednesday, 2:45pm

Now having fallen way behind, lets streamline some pick recap and comments. Drafting on the end, I am first up in the even rounds. A second starting pitcher right out of the gate is tempting. I think it is more doable when you already have a big bat you can count on. In a recent 12-team NFBC draft, the number one team took Trout, and then came back with Kluber and Verlander.

That seemed to set him up very nicely the rest of the draft, but he had Trout of course. I don’t have that luxury of course, and with 14 starting hitters versus 9 starting pitchers (who don’t play “everyday”, obviously), really have to lean hitter here I think.

I should note here too I expect this draft to follow average draft position pretty well, even though this is a points league, and ADP is predominantly roto. Starting pitchers are going earlier and earlier in drafts this year, so it may be difficult to tell if they go high here is it because of the scoring, or because that is the norm. I don’t however think every owner will adjust enough to the format, so there should still be good pitching choices in the third and fourth rounds.

Points fantasy baseball league round 2

Hitter it is, I take Giancarlo Stanton. Our Draft Buddy projections are very bullish on Stanton. Keep in mind our projections are based on Steamer, but with our own playing time adjustments. The combination of the two equals lots of home runs, which translates to lots of points in this league. Thankfully, no negative points for strikeouts.

Acuna finally gets drafted, third pick of the second round. His owner is very happy, and why not. He was the 73rd ranked hitter last year in this scoring, in 111 games. The same output playing 150 games puts him at 627 fantasy points, good for 11th last season. He is appropriately valued falling into the second round, given the scoring, but even as a second year player perhaps a safer bet than someone like Stanton, or Harper, who rely more heavily on the long ball.

To sum up the rest of the second round, the pitchers went! Five to be exact from 2.05 to 2.12 – Verlander, Kluber, Aaron Nola, Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell. So that is even a bit earlier than I expected. Maybe I was naive and it was to be expected since everyone has knowledge of and access to the same fantasy baseball draft tool.

I am a bit surprised Aaron Judge didn’t got a bit higher, and really surprised Francisco Lindor fell into the third round. Interesting enough, I mentioned earlier the NFBC draft where Team 1 when Trout-SP-SP, and the same thing happened here.

Round 3

Wednesday, 4:10pm

This round had the makings of continuing to be heavy at starting pitcher with Carlos Carrasco taken off the top. It ended up as only a trickle though with Noah Syndergaard taken at 3.09 and Trevor Bauer 3.11. Wait until the fourth round.

This is the round where we clean up some very good hitters who often make their way into the top two rounds of drafts, but slipped down into the third. Examples using ADP from FantasyPros:

  • Javier Baez – ADP 16, drafted 27
  • Francisco Lindor – ADP 6 (this seems a tad high), drafted 28
  • Manny Machado – ADP 13, drafted 31
  • Andrew Benintendi – ADP 29, drafted 36

Through three rounds we have two teams with two pitchers. Not only team 1, but team 7 did the reverse of team 1, starting deGrom-Kluber, and getting Machado in the third. Seven other teams have one pitcher, leaving three with none.

Something I am starting to come around on at this point in terms of strategy is, do I attempt to draft and start 9 starting pitchers and no relievers? There is no distinction between SP and RP for this league, and it is a points league with Innings Pitched, Wins and Quality Starts scored relatively high, while Saves are modestly rewarded.

Starters will normally only play once a week, of course, while a reliever could see action three times. Here are the top 34 pitchers from last year in this scoring. I picked 34 because I wanted to capture Kenley Jansen in the table. The last column is fantasy points per game.

Name Pos FPts PPG
1. Max Scherzer, WAS SP 603.7 18.3
2. Edwin Diaz, SEA RP 560.3 7.7
3. Justin Verlander, HOU SP 559.0 16.4
4. Blake Snell, TB SP 548.7 17.7
5. Gerrit Cole, HOU SP 537.3 16.8
6. Corey Kluber, CLE SP 533.0 16.2
7. Aaron Nola, PHI SP 520.3 15.8
8. Blake Treinen, OAK RP 519.3 7.6
9. Jacob deGrom, NYM SP 500.0 15.6
10. Luis Severino, NYY SP 489.3 15.3
11. Craig Kimbrel, BOS RP 478.3 7.6
12. Carlos Carrasco, CLE SP|RP 471.0 14.7
13. Chris Sale, BOS SP 458.0 17.0
14. Patrick Corbin, ARI SP 451.0 13.7
15. Trevor Bauer, CLE SP|RP 450.3 16.1
16. Kyle Freeland, COL SP 446.3 13.5
17. Charlie Morton, HOU SP 445.0 14.8
Name Pos FPts PPG
18. Miles Mikolas, STL SP 443.7 13.9
19. J.A. Happ, TOR SP 438.7 14.2
20. Mike Clevinger, CLE SP 430.0 13.4
21. German Marquez, COL SP 429.0 13.0
22. Zack Greinke, ARI SP 427.7 13.0
23. Felipe Vazquez, PIT RP 427.0 6.1
24. Rick Porcello, BOS SP 425.3 12.9
25. Wade Davis, COL RP 414.3 6.0
26. Jon Lester, CHC SP 413.7 12.9
27. David Price, BOS SP 408.0 13.6
28. Mike Foltynewicz, ATL SP 407.0 13.1
29. Jameson Taillon, PIT SP 392.0 12.3
30. Aroldis Chapman, NYY RP 384.3 7.0
31. Jhoulys Chacin, MIL SP 383.7 11.0
32. James Paxton, SEA SP 381.3 13.6
33. Kenley Jansen, LAD RP 380.7 5.5
34. Zack Wheeler, NYM SP 379.3 13.1

I haven’t got a definitive answer yet, as it will depend to a degree how the draft goes, but I think it is valid to fade relievers hard to punting them completely.

Download Draft Buddy for Full Draft

Monday March 18

The draft wrapped last Friday, so we started and finished the slow draft from Monday to Friday with no weekend overlap, which is great. Nice pace gentlemen! I got sidetracked into programming and other work so I wasn’t able to keep going with the detailed draft recap.

I uploaded a copy of my completed Draft Buddy for this draft for your review. Find it under Additional Files on the Draft Buddy download page.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

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Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Through Round 1057%56%57%73%4.50
NameWSVKERAWHIP
Through Round 1032%48%35%3.754.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Quintana13%0%12%-1.25-2.00
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Porcello15%0%12%-2.50-1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total32%48%35%3.754.75
Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
New Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total43%48%47%2.754.25
Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
New Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total57%56%57%73%4.50
Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
New Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total46%77%52%3.254.00
Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
New Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total64%64%65%77%5.00
Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
New Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total54%77%60%3.504.00
Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
New Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total72%71%72%81%4.00
Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
New Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Seager (drafted 16.05)8%7%8%1%-1.50
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total77%75%77%82%3.75
Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
New Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total85%81%84%83%3.50
Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
New Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Prev. Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50
Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
New Pitching Total69%90%77%2.253.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Prev. Batting Total91%87%91%89%3.50
Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
New Batting Total97%94%98%93%1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
C – Wellington Castillo5%4%5%1%-0.25
C – Tyler Flowers3%4%4%0%-0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman9%9%10%6%3.50
2B – Brian Dozier9%8%8%9%-1.50
3B – Maikel Franco8%6%7%1%-0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts7%8%9%8%1.75
OF – Starling Marte6%8%7%24%1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario9%8%8%7%1.25
OF – Max Kepler8%7%7%4%-1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera6%6%7%6%0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun6%7%7%4%-1.75
MI – Tim Anderson6%7%6%18%-0.75
CI – Matt Olson11%8%9%1%-1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer7%8%8%4%0.50
Starters Total100%98%102%93%1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

NameHRRRBISBAVG
Jeimer Candelario3B6%7%6%0.02
Starlin Castro2B5%6%6%0.04
Zack Cozart3B5%6%5%0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Chris Sale16%0%17%3.004.00
Charlie Morton13%0%12%0.00-0.50
Andrew Heaney11%0%12%-1.00-0.50
Ross Stripling8%0%8%0.250.00
Kenley Jansen3%48%6%0.751.25
Jose Alvarado3%29%5%0.50-0.25
Andrew Miller4%13%6%0.750.50
Core Pitching Total58%90%66%4.254.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

NameWSVKERAWHIP
Jake Junis11%0%11%-2.00-1.00
Zach Eflin12%0%9%-1.75-1.00
Trevor Cahill8%0%8%-1.25-2.00
Robbie Erlin6%0%6%-1.50-0.75
Ryan Brasier3%18%4%0.000.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

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