DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Scott Fish Bowl SFB8 Fantasy Football Draft Preparation

By Leave a Comment

Scott Fish Bowl
The Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8) draft kicked off Monday at 11:00am Eastern, and I am in the Norm Peterson league of the Cheers / Seinfeld conference.

Never heard of the Scott Fish Bowl? It is one of the most fun fantasy football expert leagues (and in this case expert + fan competition) to participate in. There is no money at stake, but this 900 person event does raise considerable funds for charity through FantasyCares.net. It is an awesome event for the fantasy football community.

Unique League Rules

This is a large overall competition but it is broken down into 12-team leagues. Focusing on the individual league aspect, here are some key rules to give you some context to the draft results:

  • Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex spots, maximum 1 Flex a QB
  • 22 roster spots so it is a fairly deep league, especially considering no K or DEF
  • QB scoring 6 points per TD, -4 point per INT – very punitive
  • reception scoring 0.5 points all positions, except 1.0 points for TE
  • first down scoring 0.5 points per rushing or receiving, except 1.0 points for TE

Pretty unique, isn’t it? So we can start 2 QB but the interceptions are killers. It is a lot of weekly starters. TE are added value with the double points for receptions and first downs relative to RB and WR. And, points for first downs!

First Down Scoring

Preparing for the first down stat scoring, which is not a very common fantasy points category, took some thought. I considered pulling 2017 player stats for first downs from my database and inputting them into Draft Buddy, but that wouldn’t be exceptionally helpful. Historical stats will match to players from last year, but not match to projections for the upcoming season which is what I use to help generate my cheatsheets.

Instead, I reviewed the first down stats to get a sense how impactful this category is on the scoring. It is fairly significant, mostly because it contributes primarily to RB, WR and TE scoring, but not QB unless they run a lot. Note, no points for a passing first down.

Sometimes you to use a little ingenuity to get your custom cheatsheet and draft tool (Draft Buddy) to give you the best results. In this case, I goosed up the reception points to account for receiving first downs, and gave some points for rushing attempts to account for rushing first downs.

For example, my analysis suggested a relationship of WR receiving first downs about 70% of reception totals, so I added 0.35 points per reception (to the existing 0.5). That is 0.5 per first down x 70% = 0.35. I did similar for the first down scoring for each type and position.

D-I-Y Average Draft Position Data

I have the 12th pick in the draft. Buddy Jim Day, a.k.a. @Fantasytaz, organized some pre-SFB8 draftmasters drafts to allow players some practice drafting, from which I compiled ADP you can find in the tweet below, and Google Sheets document.

In my practice draft I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, but as SFB8 got closer there seemed to be some buzz as to the QB values going up. Everyone wants to start two QB, and no one wants to be left with sketchy QB options as likely to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns each week. So, I was hopeful to get Rodgers again in my real draft, and he is the only QB I would consider at that spot.

Custom Cheatsheets

With the rules and scoring input, plus ADP, Draft Buddy kicked out custom cheatsheets for me. Presented below are the Top 12 at each position. These are based on the default projections in Draft Buddy, from FF Today, so I won’t necessarily draft exactly as shown on the cheatsheets.

In fact, I would not normally do that anyway, because I look at each draft as sort of a living, evolving experience, where opinions and strategies change as it progresses. Perhaps more on that another time. I will get into more specifics about some of my decisions made through the draft, but if you want a sneak peek at my picks, currently through four rounds, you can review the draft report.

I will post my copy of Draft Buddy for this draft to our download page for our Draft Buddy members to review if interested.

Draft Buddy Fantasy Football Projections Update

By Leave a Comment

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson goes 1.02 in a new draftmasters draft I am participating in to practice for the upcoming Scott Fish Bowl. I have the 12th pick so there was no threat of DJ falling to me.

I sent a members newsletter yesterday, so in the interest of getting some new info to you folks, here is a quick hit post about the latest with respect to fantasy football Draft Buddy.

Projections Update

We did an update of the FF Today projections, depth charts and ADP in Draft Buddy dated today, June 28. As of now we are on a regular weekly update schedule, Thursdays through to and including Thursday August 30, plus one more after Labor Day weekend on September 3. As usual, we also do unscheduled updates as needed for significant player news (injury, suspension, etc.) that doesn’t fall nicely into the regular schedule.

Rankings Update

Last year saw the addition of a new feature for Draft Buddy in early August – alternate player rankings. These rankings import directly to the cheatsheets, as opposed to having custom cheatsheets created using the projections and scoring rules in Draft Buddy.

There are three sets of player rankings – FF Today, Dynasty League Football and Draft Buddy. My Draft Buddy rankings are not ready yet, which I explained in the member newsletter. The FFT and DLF rankings are usually updated at the same time as the projections, or the next day.

YouTube Videos

There are three new YouTube videos demonstrating Draft Buddy to start the year. One, a quick rules and scoring setup you can find in our initial kickoff post for the 2018 season. Two, a demo of MFL integration in my FanEx FAD Draft Recap, Part 2.

Considering we just did a projections update, here is a great spot for the third one. Here is how to do an update and refresh your cheatsheets in Draft Buddy:

Scott Fish Bowl Draftmasters Draft

I added a page to the website with information about fantasy football experts leagues that I participate in, including the pro-am event Scott Fish Bowl (SFB8). Division assignments are out and the draft for that is coming up soon, July 9. I am in the Cheers – Norm Peterson division and have the 12th pick in the draft.

Thanks for buddy Jim Day, better known as Fantasytaz in the fantasy football community, I am going to get some practice in an SFB8 format draftmasters draft from the 12 spot. The draft just opened and started today with the usual suspects, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott 1-2-3 to start. It is pick 1.08 right now so I am waiting, but you can follow along the draft report, and I will let you know how it goes.

Players To Avoid In The 2018 Fantasy Football Season

By Leave a Comment

Odell Beckham, New York Giants

“OBJ” by Brook Ward (CC BY-NC 2.0)

Fantasy football draft season is fast approaching, which means that it is a great time to start preparing your draft board. And while a big part of any fantasy football draft board is looking into which players you want on your team, another important component is deciding which players you want to avoid when your draft rolls around. These three players in particular should be avoided at all costs when it comes to picking your fantasy football team.

Odell Beckham Jr.

As a general rule, it is a great idea to avoid players who are coming off of catastrophic injuries. This is especially true when it comes to players who are almost sure to be drafted near the top of most fantasy football drafts. Odell Beckham Jr. falls into both of those categories, as he is recovering from a serious injury that will render him unworthy of the high draft pick that he may earn in most fantasy leagues.

Beckham is undoubtedly a talented wide receiver, but there are so many talented wide receivers that are going to come into the 2018 season healthy. The most important thing outside of production in fantasy football is the ability to stay on the field. A player can’t score fantasy points if they aren’t healthy enough to stay on the field, and concerns about Beckham reinjuring his ankles could derail even the most well put together fantasy team. While the Giants may be able to clear Beckham for minicamps, that doesn’t mean that he will be the top-tier receiver that he was before his injuries.

Add on to that the fact that the Giants might be a bad team again this coming season, and it is entirely possible that Beckham’s production suffers as a result. The Giants were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year, and were among the teams that were the least backed in the NFL by bettors. Even bettors using NFL football free bets from Oddschecker were taking their wagers elsewhere, and there aren’t many signs that the team will be better in 2018.

In fact, the team may be even worse at protecting quarterback Eli Manning than they were last year. They lost two of their only decent offensive linemen this offseason in Weston Richburg and Justin Pugh. And even with the addition of left tackle Nate Solder, the team is looking likely to have trouble giving Manning enough time to get the ball to Beckham on a regular basis.

Rob Gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots

“Talking To Gronkowski” by WBUR Boston’s NPR News Station (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

Every year, someone in your fantasy football league drafts Rob Gronkowski higher than they should. This is because he is a big name, but also because he is one of the best tight ends in the NFL when he is healthy enough to compete. But you should know before you draft your fantasy team for the 2018 season that Gronkowski is not to be trusted as a top-tier tight end.

Much like Beckham, Gronkowski’s health is a big reason as to why he should not be trusted at the tight end spot for your team. He has been hurt multiple times over the last few seasons, missing significant chunks of time with each injury that he suffers. And thanks to the Patriots’ situation in the AFC East, there isn’t always a reason for the team to bring him back during the regular season.

That situation, of course, is the fact that the Patriots have to compete with the lowly Jets, Bills, and Dolphins in the AFC East. Those three teams combined may not be able to field a team strong enough to beat the Patriots, which all but guarantees New England the ability to win the division and make the playoffs each year. As a result, the team is able to rest Gronkowski until they think he is healthy enough to contribute in the postseason, which can demolish his fantasy production every year.

Instead, you may want to look at some higher value options later in the draft. Players like Trey Burton of the Bears will be available deep into most drafts. Burton and others can make for a way more valuable play than Gronkowski.

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun Watson lit up the NFL over a short period of time before he was lost for the season due to a knee injury. This year, the Texans have to figure out a way to get Watson back on track, and shouldn’t have much trouble doing so. But as he gets used to life on the field after a knee injury, fantasy players should not buy into the hype from last season just yet.

There is no denying that Watson is a hard-working player, as evidenced by his early return from a knee injury to be a part of the Houston Texans’ offseason workouts. But all of the hard work in the world can’t prepare a player for re-adjusting to the full speed of an NFL game. As a result, expect Watson to undergo a bit of an adjustment period as he gets his legs back under him in 2018.

Instead of using a draft pick on Watson, wait to see if he is available on waivers later in the season after he has had some time to get reacclimated with playing quarterback on his surgically repaired knee. That could be the value pickup of the season if you time it correctly.