The NFL offseason opened with a bang as the Detroit Lions found a trade partner for their disgruntled long-time quarterback, Matthew Stafford.

With Stafford expressing his desire for a trade to the team’s management, the expectation was the team would likely not receive a fair market value offer. The 32-year old Stafford has two years remaining on his contract at a reasonable cost of $43-million.

Bounty In Return

Instead of sending Stafford packing at a discount, new general manager (and former Los Angeles Rams Director of College Scouting) Brad Holmes, leveraged his ties to the Rams front office. He sent Stafford west to L.A. for 1^st round picks in 2022 and 2023, a 2021 3^rd round pick, and current Rams quarterback Jared Goff. Goff was the 1^st overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Given the significant return to the Lions, the Rams not only paid the Lions to get Stafford, but they also paid the Lions to take on Goff’s contract. It contains $43-million of guaranteed payments over the next two years. Since Goff’s contract does not contain offset provisions, the Rams would not receive salary cap relief by releasing him if he signed with another team.

By trading Goff, Los Angeles incurs a dead cap charge of $22.2-million for the remaining unamortized portion of his signing bonus. They shed his 2021 payouts of $27.8-million but take on Stafford’s 2021 salary of $20-million. The net impact for Los Angeles is an additional $8-million of cap charges.

That is a significant amount for a team that enters the offseason over the cap with some key issues to address. The Rams do not have an impact edge rusher under contract for 2021, and Pro Bowl safety John Johnson enters unrestricted free agency.

Stafford Versus Goff

Head coach Sean McVay and GM Les Snead failed to endorse Goff as the team’s starter for 2021 in recent press conferences. There seemed little chance that he would return as the unquestioned starting quarterback.

However, the team shocked the league by acquiring Stafford for a substantial amount of draft capital. A questionable move by a team that has failed to draft in the first round since acquiring Goff in 2016.

In Stafford, the Rams are acquiring a 32-year old gunslinger with a career record of 74-90-1 with three playoff appearances, zero playoff wins. The Rams view him as a superior quarterback to Goff due to his accuracy, deep ball skills, ability to move in the pocket to extend plays, and ball protection.

When it comes to evaluating the trade, Stafford’s proponents point to a lack of talent on defense and in the running game for the Lions’ failures with him at quarterback.

His detractors would suggest that he has failed to elevate those around him. He has had plenty of talent to work with, from Calvin Johnson to Golden Tate in his prime, as well as Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones over the last several years. Stafford never won a division title and has 10 career wins against teams that finished the season with a winning record.

There is scant evidence to suggest that Stafford has a far better chance to take the Rams back to the Super Bowl and win it than Goff would have, who led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018, losing 13-3 to the New England Patriots.

While Goff regressed over the last two seasons, mainly due to his propensity for turnovers. However, after a disastrous rookie season, he led the Rams to playoff appearances in three of the last four seasons, reaching the Super Bowl once. Goff has the highest winning percentage of any starting quarterback not named Tom Brady over the timeframe.

Bottom Line

Ultimately, the Rams paid a steep price for a quarterback they expect will lead them back to the Super Bowl, even though he failed to win a single playoff game during his 12-year career.

It is difficult to commend the Rams on this trade after they:

• Gave up two 1^st round picks, two 2^nd round picks, and two 3^rd round picks to move up 15 picks in the 1^st round to draft Goff.
• Overpaid Goff on a four year, $134-million extension just 17 months ago despite having two seasons left on his rookie contract.
• Overpaid to acquire Stafford while losing $8-million in 2021 cap space which likely,
• forces them to sign him to a lucrative extension.

The trade can only be graded as a win for the Rams if Stafford leads them to a Super Bowl Championship. Their chances might be better today, but they are not improved enough for the price paid.

For Detroit, Holmes starts his tenure with a huge win, netting two 1^st round picks, a 3^rd round pick, and a 26-year old former 1^st overall selection in the draft.

While Goff comes with $43-million in guarantees, he is only owed $104-million over the next four years. That is an acceptable sum for the veteran quarterback if he reverts to his 2017-2018 form. With four 1^st round picks in the 2022 and 2023 drafts, Holmes has plenty of ammunition to draft a rookie if Goff does not revive his career in Detroit.

Better yet, Holmes managed to extract such a large return despite a lack of negotiating leverage. Not only should Detroit Lions fans be excited by this trade, but they should also be excited about Holmes, who appears to be more than capable to turn around this struggling franchise.

Bargains and busts in redraft leagues are inevitable. Every year the hype train barrels down the tracks for certain players that end up being huge busts. Conversely, every year there are diamonds in the rough or values that are too good to pass on. The 2020 season is no different.

In the last of a four-part series (see: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receiver), we examine one of each bargains and busts at tight end. All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Tight End

The tight end group, similar to that of the running back position, is thin. If you don’t snag Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the first few rounds, do not fret. You can still find a more than a competent tight end in the later rounds. Players at the position that can be had in round three or later include Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, or Hunter Henry.

TE Bargain: Jared Cook (TE 11, ADP 113.8)

For redraft bargains and busts tight end we start with our bargain. Likely because of his age, Jared Cook is often overlooked in fantasy circles. It is easy to forget he was the TE1 from Week 10 onward last season. A healthy Drew Brees makes all the difference in the world.

A Look at the Numbers

Using the player stats available here at Draft Buddy, we can see the veteran tight end outpaced the “big three” of Kelce, Kittle, and Zach Ertz once his competent quarterback returned. Not to knock Teddy Bridgewater, but he is no Brees. Meanwhile, the other tight ends had a full allotment of games with their starting signal-caller.

Those are some pretty impressive numbers from a 33-year-old vet. Granted, Cook played more games than the others, but you cannot discount the fact that he was efficient once the offense got their leader back.

Been There, Done That

The journeyman has a TE1 finish in each of the last three seasons after being miscast in Tennessee and used sparingly with the Rams. Injuries derailed his short time with the Green Bay Packers. When used correctly by both the Raiders and the Saints, the star has shone. Looking at the yearly player data app via Dynasty League Football, we see how it has shaken out over the course of his career.

There is no reason to believe a healthy Brees and a healthy Cook cannot recreate the fantasy magic enjoyed from Week 10 on in 2019.

In Good Hands

The news was not all bad without Brees at the helm. As mentioned, Bridgewater was a serviceable backup and Jameis Winston is in town now if anything were to happen to the former Chargers quarterback. In four games without his main guy, Cook still posted TE1 numbers, albeit not as pretty. At this position, it is hard to be too particular.

Using the newly revamped splits app over at DLF, we see the biggest drop off was in yards per target. That should not be an issue in 2020 if Winston is forced into action. This is just a little added security blanket added to your value pick. You can certainly do worse than Cook in the 10th round of your redraft league.

TE Bust: Tyler Higbee (TE 8, ADP 88.4)

The redraft bargains and busts tight end continues with our bust. There is a ton of hype around Tyler Higbee after the historic finish to 2019. The question is will he be able to repeat or sustain that pace? The Rams will likely run more 12 personnel this season leading people to believe the answer is yes. The contract extension also screams buy. So why the reservations?

Small Sample Size

As mentioned above, the end of the season was historical for Higbee. The veteran tight end went over 84 yards in four straight games. This helped account for 107.2 of his season total 160.4 PPR points. That is where the concern starts to creep in. This also coincided with Gerald Everett missing time.

Going back to the well with the DLF splits app, we see that Higbee was still on a 16 game pace to be a TE1, but was THE TE1 when Everett was out. Even when his injured counterpart returned, Everett only played 4 snaps over the final two games of the season while “active.”

Out of Nowhere

While it was certainly fun to watch, especially for those who rostered him and likely won championships because of it, only four times prior in 63 games did Higbee produce a TE1 finish. The weekly position finish chart from DLF shows just how bad it really had been up until the end of last season.

Tight ends do historically take the longest to develop at the NFL level and maybe this was the beginning of a great career for the Western Kentucky grad. It would be great to see. It is just hard to buy at this price with the risk associated with it.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading to those of you that have followed this redraft bargains and busts series. The hope is this breakdown helps steer you towards some value during your upcoming draft. You may not have the chance to grab a stud early, but you can still find a TE1 a little later. Just try to avoid the land mines, as you would at any position.

As mentioned in the open, the position is scarce. We can wait until rounds nine or ten and still find a serviceable TE1. Feel free to leave comments below and I will respond as soon as possible.

Thank you for reading. You can find some of my other work and thoughts on Twitter @FFJeffSmith and at Dynasty League Football.

Bargains and busts in redraft leagues are inevitable. Every year the hype train barrels down the tracks for certain players that end up being huge busts. Conversely, every year there are diamonds in the rough or values that are too good to pass on. The 2020 season is no different.

In part three of a four-part series (see: quarterbacks, running backs), we examine one of each bargains and busts at wide receiver. All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver crop is the deepest of them all. If you don’t snag a Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, or Julio Jones, do not fret. You can still find a more than competent WR1 in later rounds. Players at the position that can be had in round three or later include Mike Evans, DJ Moore, and even Amari Cooper.

WR Bargain: Tyler Lockett (WR 21, ADP 50.5)

For redraft bargains and busts wide receiver we start with our bargain. Let’s examine a wideout that is rarely discussed as someone with WR1 potential despite having flashed the upside to do so the past couple of seasons. Getting a potential WR1 in the fifth round is straight stealing.

Derailed by Injury

Before suffering a gruesome injury in Week 10 against the San Francisco 49ers, Tyler Lockett was the WR5 in PPR formats. Granted he played one more game than most but was still 10 points clear of the others behind him. Those players include Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Kenny Golladay.

Even with a slow second half of the season, the young wideout managed a WR13 finish on the season. Not too shabby for someone currently being drafted 21st overall at the position.

More With Less

The Kansas State Grad saw a career-high 110 targets last season, up 40 from the 70 he received in 2018. While there was a steep decline in production on a per touch basis (likely due to injury), the former Wildcat still did better than the aforementioned Kupp and Amari Cooper.

You see the potential exists with the 3.05 points per opportunity recorded in 2018. That season Lockett recorded an insane 81.4% catch rate. That number was nearly as impressive last year at 74.5%. These are the type of upside players we covet in the middle rounds of drafts.

College Pedigree

While in Manhattan, Kansas, the 5’10”, 182-pound versatile receiver hauled in 11 touchdowns each of his last two seasons on campus. This includes a nice total of 1,532 yards over 13 games during his senior campaign.

While Lockett will be 28 when the season starts, we do not need concern ourselves with age in redraft. He has steadily improved every year in the league and has a solid rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson. The arrival of DK Metcalf can only help but draw some of the better defenders away from him, thus providing Lockett with better opportunities. Do not shy away at the current price.

WR Bust: Kenny Golladay (WR 7, ADP 25.7)

The redraft bargains and busts wide receiver continues with our bust. There is a lot of buzz around what Kenny Golladay will be able to do with a healthy Matthew Stafford. It is certainly understandable. Stafford has not been healthy for two straight seasons, playing 2018 with a bad back and missing most of 2019 with a similar issue.

More Consistent Options

While the upside is legit, the consistency is lacking over those being drafted behind the young wideout. These players include Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. In half of his 42 games played, Golladay finished as a WR3 or worse.

Looking at this data, one has to wonder how the Northern Illinois grad is being drafted ahead of Evans, who is clearly more reliable. The emergence of Chris Godwin has certainly scared some people off, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver has gone over 1,000 receiving yards all six seasons in the league.

The Stafford Narrative

What evidence do we have that Stafford will approach close to 16 games played this season? Backs are a tricky injury to deal with and typically never fully heal, especially taking hit after hit from 250-plus pound defensive players. While splits merely paint a small portion of the picture, the data suggests there really is not much difference for Golladay with or without the Georgia Bulldog at the helm.

You can see here that in the 33 games played with the former overall number one pick leading the offense, Golladay is actually a little worse, coming in at WR24 versus WR20 without. The numbers are down in targets, yardage, and touchdowns. That is a lot of guesswork for someone going seventh overall at the position.

Repeat Performance?

It is not all doom and gloom in the Motor City. Golladay did finish as the WR8 in 2019. Could this have been a product of being on a team that was behind often and throwing late? Also, the addition of D’Andre Swift may reek of a potential change in offensive philosophy.

Head coach Matt Patricia is a Bill Belichick disciple. While Julian Edelman has thrived as a WR1 in that type offense, the molds are completely different. Speaking of coaches, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell does not have a great history of producing WR1 sans Doug Baldwin’s mini-run from 2015 to 2017.

The price is just too rich when there are more stable and reliable options available after the 6’4″, 214-pound receiver is coming off the board. Heck even DJ Moore has more upside. Wait for a round or two and take him and do not look back.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading part three redraft bargains and busts, wide receiver. The hope is this breakdown helps steer you towards some value during your upcoming draft. You do not have to jump on the receiver position early, you can still find a WR1 a little later. Just try to avoid the land mines, as you would at any position.

As mentioned in the open, the position is deep. We can wait until rounds four or five and still find a serviceable WR1. Tight end is up next and we will see you back here soon. Feel free to leave comments below and I will respond as soon as possible.

Thank you for reading. You can find some of my other work and thoughts on Twitter @FFJeffSmith and at Dynasty League Football.