Bargains and busts in redraft leagues are inevitable. Every year the hype train barrels down the tracks for certain players that end up being huge busts. Conversely, every year there are diamonds in the rough or values that are too good to pass on. The 2020 season is no different.

In the last of a four-part series (see: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receiver), we examine one of each bargains and busts at tight end. All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Tight End

The tight end group, similar to that of the running back position, is thin. If you don’t snag Travis Kelce or George Kittle in the first few rounds, do not fret. You can still find a more than a competent tight end in the later rounds. Players at the position that can be had in round three or later include Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, or Hunter Henry.

TE Bargain: Jared Cook (TE 11, ADP 113.8)

For redraft bargains and busts tight end we start with our bargain. Likely because of his age, Jared Cook is often overlooked in fantasy circles. It is easy to forget he was the TE1 from Week 10 onward last season. A healthy Drew Brees makes all the difference in the world.

A Look at the Numbers

Using the player stats available here at Draft Buddy, we can see the veteran tight end outpaced the “big three” of Kelce, Kittle, and Zach Ertz once his competent quarterback returned. Not to knock Teddy Bridgewater, but he is no Brees. Meanwhile, the other tight ends had a full allotment of games with their starting signal-caller.

Those are some pretty impressive numbers from a 33-year-old vet. Granted, Cook played more games than the others, but you cannot discount the fact that he was efficient once the offense got their leader back.

Been There, Done That

The journeyman has a TE1 finish in each of the last three seasons after being miscast in Tennessee and used sparingly with the Rams. Injuries derailed his short time with the Green Bay Packers. When used correctly by both the Raiders and the Saints, the star has shone. Looking at the yearly player data app via Dynasty League Football, we see how it has shaken out over the course of his career.

There is no reason to believe a healthy Brees and a healthy Cook cannot recreate the fantasy magic enjoyed from Week 10 on in 2019.

In Good Hands

The news was not all bad without Brees at the helm. As mentioned, Bridgewater was a serviceable backup and Jameis Winston is in town now if anything were to happen to the former Chargers quarterback. In four games without his main guy, Cook still posted TE1 numbers, albeit not as pretty. At this position, it is hard to be too particular.

Using the newly revamped splits app over at DLF, we see the biggest drop off was in yards per target. That should not be an issue in 2020 if Winston is forced into action. This is just a little added security blanket added to your value pick. You can certainly do worse than Cook in the 10th round of your redraft league.

TE Bust: Tyler Higbee (TE 8, ADP 88.4)

The redraft bargains and busts tight end continues with our bust. There is a ton of hype around Tyler Higbee after the historic finish to 2019. The question is will he be able to repeat or sustain that pace? The Rams will likely run more 12 personnel this season leading people to believe the answer is yes. The contract extension also screams buy. So why the reservations?

Small Sample Size

As mentioned above, the end of the season was historical for Higbee. The veteran tight end went over 84 yards in four straight games. This helped account for 107.2 of his season total 160.4 PPR points. That is where the concern starts to creep in. This also coincided with Gerald Everett missing time.

Going back to the well with the DLF splits app, we see that Higbee was still on a 16 game pace to be a TE1, but was THE TE1 when Everett was out. Even when his injured counterpart returned, Everett only played 4 snaps over the final two games of the season while “active.”

Out of Nowhere

While it was certainly fun to watch, especially for those who rostered him and likely won championships because of it, only four times prior in 63 games did Higbee produce a TE1 finish. The weekly position finish chart from DLF shows just how bad it really had been up until the end of last season.

Tight ends do historically take the longest to develop at the NFL level and maybe this was the beginning of a great career for the Western Kentucky grad. It would be great to see. It is just hard to buy at this price with the risk associated with it.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading to those of you that have followed this redraft bargains and busts series. The hope is this breakdown helps steer you towards some value during your upcoming draft. You may not have the chance to grab a stud early, but you can still find a TE1 a little later. Just try to avoid the land mines, as you would at any position.

As mentioned in the open, the position is scarce. We can wait until rounds nine or ten and still find a serviceable TE1. Feel free to leave comments below and I will respond as soon as possible.

Thank you for reading. You can find some of my other work and thoughts on Twitter @FFJeffSmith and at Dynasty League Football.

Bargains and busts in redraft leagues are inevitable. Every year the hype train barrels down the tracks for certain players that end up being huge busts. Conversely, every year there are diamonds in the rough or values that are too good to pass on. The 2020 season is no different.

In part three of a four-part series (see: quarterbacks, running backs), we examine one of each bargains and busts at wide receiver. All ADP is courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator.

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver crop is the deepest of them all. If you don’t snag a Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, or Julio Jones, do not fret. You can still find a more than competent WR1 in later rounds. Players at the position that can be had in round three or later include Mike Evans, DJ Moore, and even Amari Cooper.

WR Bargain: Tyler Lockett (WR 21, ADP 50.5)

For redraft bargains and busts wide receiver we start with our bargain. Let’s examine a wideout that is rarely discussed as someone with WR1 potential despite having flashed the upside to do so the past couple of seasons. Getting a potential WR1 in the fifth round is straight stealing.

Derailed by Injury

Before suffering a gruesome injury in Week 10 against the San Francisco 49ers, Tyler Lockett was the WR5 in PPR formats. Granted he played one more game than most but was still 10 points clear of the others behind him. Those players include Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Kenny Golladay.

Even with a slow second half of the season, the young wideout managed a WR13 finish on the season. Not too shabby for someone currently being drafted 21st overall at the position.

More With Less

The Kansas State Grad saw a career-high 110 targets last season, up 40 from the 70 he received in 2018. While there was a steep decline in production on a per touch basis (likely due to injury), the former Wildcat still did better than the aforementioned Kupp and Amari Cooper.

You see the potential exists with the 3.05 points per opportunity recorded in 2018. That season Lockett recorded an insane 81.4% catch rate. That number was nearly as impressive last year at 74.5%. These are the type of upside players we covet in the middle rounds of drafts.

College Pedigree

While in Manhattan, Kansas, the 5’10”, 182-pound versatile receiver hauled in 11 touchdowns each of his last two seasons on campus. This includes a nice total of 1,532 yards over 13 games during his senior campaign.

While Lockett will be 28 when the season starts, we do not need concern ourselves with age in redraft. He has steadily improved every year in the league and has a solid rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson. The arrival of DK Metcalf can only help but draw some of the better defenders away from him, thus providing Lockett with better opportunities. Do not shy away at the current price.

WR Bust: Kenny Golladay (WR 7, ADP 25.7)

The redraft bargains and busts wide receiver continues with our bust. There is a lot of buzz around what Kenny Golladay will be able to do with a healthy Matthew Stafford. It is certainly understandable. Stafford has not been healthy for two straight seasons, playing 2018 with a bad back and missing most of 2019 with a similar issue.

More Consistent Options

While the upside is legit, the consistency is lacking over those being drafted behind the young wideout. These players include Allen Robinson and Mike Evans. In half of his 42 games played, Golladay finished as a WR3 or worse.

Looking at this data, one has to wonder how the Northern Illinois grad is being drafted ahead of Evans, who is clearly more reliable. The emergence of Chris Godwin has certainly scared some people off, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers receiver has gone over 1,000 receiving yards all six seasons in the league.

The Stafford Narrative

What evidence do we have that Stafford will approach close to 16 games played this season? Backs are a tricky injury to deal with and typically never fully heal, especially taking hit after hit from 250-plus pound defensive players. While splits merely paint a small portion of the picture, the data suggests there really is not much difference for Golladay with or without the Georgia Bulldog at the helm.

You can see here that in the 33 games played with the former overall number one pick leading the offense, Golladay is actually a little worse, coming in at WR24 versus WR20 without. The numbers are down in targets, yardage, and touchdowns. That is a lot of guesswork for someone going seventh overall at the position.

Repeat Performance?

It is not all doom and gloom in the Motor City. Golladay did finish as the WR8 in 2019. Could this have been a product of being on a team that was behind often and throwing late? Also, the addition of D’Andre Swift may reek of a potential change in offensive philosophy.

Head coach Matt Patricia is a Bill Belichick disciple. While Julian Edelman has thrived as a WR1 in that type offense, the molds are completely different. Speaking of coaches, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell does not have a great history of producing WR1 sans Doug Baldwin’s mini-run from 2015 to 2017.

The price is just too rich when there are more stable and reliable options available after the 6’4″, 214-pound receiver is coming off the board. Heck even DJ Moore has more upside. Wait for a round or two and take him and do not look back.

Conclusion

Thank you for reading part three redraft bargains and busts, wide receiver. The hope is this breakdown helps steer you towards some value during your upcoming draft. You do not have to jump on the receiver position early, you can still find a WR1 a little later. Just try to avoid the land mines, as you would at any position.

As mentioned in the open, the position is deep. We can wait until rounds four or five and still find a serviceable WR1. Tight end is up next and we will see you back here soon. Feel free to leave comments below and I will respond as soon as possible.

Thank you for reading. You can find some of my other work and thoughts on Twitter @FFJeffSmith and at Dynasty League Football.

My 2020 fantasy football rankings first hit the website back in early June after the initial release of Draft Buddy. Numerous updates later, it is past time to add player commentary to the rankings. These are my 2020 running back rankings, top 12 for redraft fantasy football leagues. Average Draft Position (ADP) data shown for FFPC as of August 25th.

2020 Running Back Rankings Tier 1

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

ADP 1.01 (1st overall; high 1 to low 2)

What a season. No one should expect a repeat, especially with so much change on the Carolina Panthers, but CMC is going number one overall in most drafts and I’ve got him number one overall. He isn’t alone in the top tier though as I take a more cerebral approach to ranking players, especially running backs, where things can change quickly. CMC is good – really good – but so are these other guys ranked next to him.

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

ADP 1.02 (2nd overall; high 1 to low 4)

Barkley started fine last season, got injured in Week 3 with a high ankle sprain and missed the next three games. Returning Week 7 it took him until Week 15 to hit 100 yards rushing. The earlier than expected return from injury was admirable, but makes it difficult to know how much the ankle or shoddy QB or OL play contributed to his down season. Barkley is supremely talented and the best bet to unseat CMC for the top ranked player in fantasy.

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

ADP 1.03 (3rd overall; high 2 to low 7)

Elliott held out for a new contract last season and signed only four days prior to the start of the season. Fantasy players were rightfully concerned about injury from his training camp absence, but he started Week 1 (played only 54% of snaps) and then didn’t miss a beat after that. The Cowboys stellar OL is starting to show some chinks in the armor but Elliott is still well positioned for another 300 carry, double-digit TD season.

4. Alvin Kamara, NO

ADP 1.04 (4th overall; high 3 to low 7)

Kamara was pretty disappointing last season as a consensus top 3-4 pick who dropped from 13 TD in 2017 and 18 in 2018 all the way down to six in 2019. His snaps, carries and receptions were consistent with prior seasons. Kamara tweeted this offseason he played most of 2019, “on 1 leg… at 75%.” I believe him, which keeps him ranked in the top tier. He is one of the league’s most dynamic running backs.

On 1 leg… At 75%.. but we back to 100 ?? https://t.co/dYMblYKNU0

— Alvin Kamara (@A_kamara6) March 10, 2020

2020 Running Back Rankings Tier 2

5. Derrick Henry, TEN

ADP 1.08 (8th overall; high 4 to low 17)

The Titans finally figured out the more Henry gets the ball the better the results. After back-to-back seasons earning 40% of team snaps, they cranked it up to 63% last year resulting in 303 attempts that turned into over 1,500 rushing yards and 16 TD. He doesn’t catch the ball much, so the Titans need to maintain positive game scripts for his success.

6. Dalvin Cook, MIN

ADP 1.06 (6th overall; high 2 to low 10)

Cook stayed healthy! Mostly. He missed two games, recording 250 carries plus 53 catches in the 14 he played. A shoulder injury knocked him out of their Week 15 game and sidelined him the next two. It looks like the Vikings eased him off Week 13 and 14 at only ~45% of the snaps. Very talented back, good situation, but higher than average injury risk keeps him out of the top tier. Cook still doesn’t have a contract extension from the Vikings. It is more punitive for players to holdout now but there is still some concern Cook tries to limit his onfield risk until this contract situation is resolved.

7. Joe Mixon, CIN

ADP 1.11 (11th overall; high 7 to low 20)

Like Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon wants a long term contract and is threatening to holdout. Fantasy players are pretty bullish on Mixon after back-to-back strong seasons on a terrible team, and optimism with a new QB and HC Zac Taylor’s anticipated Rams-esque offense. Joe Burrow is still a rookie and this is still the Bengals we are talking about. Mixon is good but I want to keep expectations in check. Mixon happens to rank this high because of a more established track record or warning bells for players ranked below him.

All-in-all this tier, as tiers should be by design, is pretty fluid. As we get closer to the season with no contract change for Mixon or Cook, I could certainly see drafting Josh Jacobs or Miles Sanders ahead on one or both potential holdouts.

8. Josh Jacobs, LV

ADP 2.03 (15th overall; high 5 to low 22)

My initial rankings did not have Jacobs in the top 12, but I’ve since come around in a big way. Jacobs’ rookie season was extremely impressive with a 4.75 yards per rush, and he finished tops in the league in missed tackles per touch. He played only 56% of snaps due to a lack of use in the passing game. More than a few news reports indicate Jacobs wants more involvement in the passing game. Why not get such a dynamic player more opportunity out in space? Jon Gruden is a smart offensive coach and should do the right thing by Jacobs. I can’t help but remember huge receiving years by Charlie Garner in Gruden’s earlier Raiders stint.

9. Miles Sanders, PHI

ADP 1.10 (10th overall; high 1 to low 19)

The Philadelphia Eagles say Miles Sanders is the guy. While I remain a bit skeptical given Doug Pederson’s history splitting up RB touches, the depth chart continues to support, “the guy” narrative more than it does not. Sanders was forced into being the guy last season when Jordan Howard went down, and by all accounts Sanders performed well on an otherwise pretty dismal offense. He exceeded 80% of the snaps in four of six games Weeks 11 through 16 (Week 17 was a blowout win). He received five or more targets every game from Week 12 through the playoffs. The offense will be better with wide receivers who can stretch the defense as opposed to the rag-tag group cobbled together last season due to injuries. That helps Sanders build off his rookie season.

10. Nick Chubb, CLE

ADP 2.07 (19th overall; high 10 to low 28)

A lot of pro-Browns propaganda, and discounting the fact Kareem Hunt was set to join the team after a 10-week suspension, pushed Chubb into the first round of drafts last year. Well, the Browns offense was a mess and Hunt did impact Chubb’s snaps late in the season, but he still finished RB6 in standard, RB8 in PPR scoring. Admittedly, he was RB13 standard, RB16 PPR from Week 11 through 17 after Hunt returned. I am following the talent with this ranking. From Matt Waldman’s 2020 Rookie Scouting Portfolio combined 2018-20 RB rankings (which is a very cool feature): “[Saquon] Barkley is the consensus top back but Chubb uses his power better, makes wiser decisions, and is not far off as an athlete. Might be the top back I’ve scouted since the combo of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch.”

11. Kenyan Drake, ARI

ADP 2.02 (14th overall; high 8 to low 19)

Fantasy owners shout a collective, “I knew it!” Drake just needed an opportunity that the Miami Dolphins never afforded him. A four TD game in Week 15 boosted his season numbers – or half a season numbers with the Cardinals – but don’t let that dissuade you from putting faith in Drake. We are expecting pretty big things from this offense and the primary RB earning 70% of the snaps is due to excel. Drake is better than the 2019 version of David Johnson, and DJ was RB10 in PPR scoring Week 1 through Week 8 last season. Recent news indicates Drake is in a walking boot at training camp, the coach deems, “precautionary”, so keep tabs on his status.

2020 Running Back Rankings Tier 3

12. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

ADP 1.07 (7th overall; high 2 to low 13)

Since Damien Williams opted-out of the 2020 NFL season, Edwards-Helaire vaulted from an overvalued 2nd round pick to now an overvalued mid-1st round pick. I certainly understand the appeal, given the offense and Andy Reid’s history of success at running back. See Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and Kareem Hunt to name a few. But, he is a rookie, and with no preseason to even get his feet wet, I have a very hard time imagining the coaches trust him to step right in and protect their $450 million dollar investment. That isn’t to say I wouldn’t take CEH in the right spot, as it is an amazing opportunity for fantasy success, but I’m more willing late first or early second now than mid-first ahead of more established veterans.