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Draft Buddy RotoBowl I – Update

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Week 5 is in the books and I’m way overdue on giving you an update on how the roto fantasy football league is going. In case you missed it back in late-July, here is the origin story, participants and league details of this unique fantasy football league format.

I’m currently sitting in 4th place overall… but in trouble.

Draft Buddy RotoBowl I Standings

Draft Buddy RotoBowl I standings through NFL Week 5.

This update is as of the end of NFL Week 5, but check the current standings to follow along at home.

Passing Stats

My options: Drew Brees, Jameis Winston

  • Passing Yards – 1666 (2nd)
  • Passing Yards per Attempt – 8.7 (2nd)
  • Passing Touchdowns – 11 (T-4th)

As Brees goes, I go. Barring injury I should stay towards the top of the passing categories. I had Brees as the 3rd best QB going into the draft behind Wilson and Brady. I ended up getting him in the 6th round as the 6th QB off the board.

Receiving Stats

My WR options: Doug Baldwin, Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Kenny Stills, Tyler Boyd, Taylor Gabriel, Allen Hurns

My TE options: Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald

  • Receptions – 146 (11th)
  • Receiving Yards – 1905 (8th)
  • Receiving Touchdowns – 14 (T-3rd)

Work to be done here. Touchdowns are more random so I shouldn’t expect to stay towards the top in that category. Getting Baldwin and Jeffery back will (hopefully) help me move up in receptions and yards. In a 15 team league you’re going to see the likes of Gabriel and Boyd contributing.

Rushing Stats

My options: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Doug Martin, D’Onta Foreman.

  • Rushing Yards – 687 (9th)
  • Average Yards per Rush – 3.7 (15th)
  • Rushing Touchdowns – 5 (T-11th)

Losing Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Hill to injury didn’t help my poor showing. Even the guys not injured are dragging me down. Henry is pulling down my yards per rush and I don’t have any other options. I missed out on Wendell Smallwood this week and took a flyer on Kapri Bibbs hoping Adrian Peterson and/or Chris Thompson can’t go this week. Unfortunately for me I can’t confuse hope for a plan. I may be forced to try and pull off a trade to land a RB worth a damn and try and improve my standing in these rushing stats.

Early Observations on the Roto Format

Too much emphasis on one QB? The perfect roto league would seem to have the ability to start more than one QB each week so that the passing stats aren’t driven predominantly by one player. In roto baseball it would be like tracking home runs and RBI hit by catchers separately from other hitters.

You still need balance. I know this in roto baseball and I thought I knew this coming into this league. I’m in a bad spot with my RB and need to adapt. Much like in roto baseball you need to aim for finishing high in each category. Not necessarily 1st in each but in the 3rd to 4th place territory.

Make sure you have your lineup in each week! Unlike the head-to-head format where you can start a player on a bye and risk just losing the week, in roto that wasted opportunity could create a gap too big to make up. Take Rushing Yards for example, I’m in 9th place: 51 yards behind 8th; 149 yards behind 7th; 283 yards behind 6th and 364 yards behind 5th… and that is with filling out my lineup each week!

Best/Worst through First 5 Weeks

CategoryBestWorst
Passing Yards464 – Week 4 / @MStepney71118 – Week 1 / @MikeKAdamson*
Passing TDs5 – Week 3 / @kingsperry370 – 10 Times
Receptions54 – Week 2 / @Razzball_MB17 – Week 5 / @Roto_Chris
Receiving Yards646 – Week 5 @MikeJAdamson172 – Week 4 / @PJHofer07
Receiving TDs7 – Week 3 / @FantasyTaz0 – 5 Times
Rushing Yards447 – Week 2 / @PJHofer0738 – Week 4 / @Razzball_MB*
Rushing TDs4 – Week 1 / @PJHofer070 – 24 Times
Turnovers0 – 16 Times5 – Week 1 / @FFzinger

*Removed @EvFWFB since he hasn’t set a lineup the past few weeks.

NFL Teams Already Tanking for the 2019 NFL Draft’s First Pick

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So early in the season, it can be a little hasty to earmark teams as almost dead certainties to finish at the bottom of the standings and go for the first overall pick in the next draft, however, early NFL 2018 results are giving strong indications as to which teams are set to battle for the top picks in the 2019 NFL Draft.

One star can’t carry the Cards

Steve Wilks, Arizona Cardinals

Source: Zesty NFL Cardinals, via Twitter

Last season, the Arizona Cardinals lost superstar running back David Johnson in week one, which pretty much gave them a pass for their lackluster offensive performances. The defense managed to hold the team together and pull them to a better-than-expected 8-8 record. This season, however, everything has fallen apart.

Due to a lack of a passing game with Sam Bradford at the helm, David Johnson has been unable to get the ball moving. The defense has also been embarrassingly bad despite being full of talented players. This may come down to head coach Steve Wilks changing from the formerly successful 3-4 alignment to a very weak-looking 4-3. There simply hasn’t been anything good for the Cardinals, which is epitomized by their tally of six total points through the first two games.

A good way to see which teams are the worst in the league is checking out the odds for them to win the Super Bowl as these effectively act as power rankings influenced by experts and the betting public. Somehow, the Arizona Cardinals aren’t the lowest-rated team in the odds, and so are considered to have a better chance of creeping up the standings than one other team.

The lowest rated team in the NFL

Buffalo Bills

Source: Trainwreck Sports, via Twitter

Despite reaching the end zone, it’s the Buffalo Bills who come in as the lowest rated team in the NFL after their shoddy performances early in the season. First came the Baltimore Ravens with their revamped passing attack. But no means is it an elite-level team of quarterback and wide receivers, but the Ravens tore apart the Bills as though they weren’t even there, winning 47-3. Then the Los Angeles Chargers came to town and, despite letting their foot off of the pedal a bit, still clocked in a 31-20 win.

The Buffalo Bills made it to the postseason in 2017, but being in a division with the New England Patriots, who are favored to win Super Bowl LIII at +650 in the American football odds, is always going to be troublesome. It’s the fact that the defense has crumbled so significantly in 2018 which has them rated lower than the Cardinals – who boast a decent defense on paper.

Defense is key to any team being strong in the NFL. Without a defense that’s sturdy against at least one of the two forms of offense, the team will just get picked apart. Last season, the Bills managed to put up decent numbers against the pass, ranking as one of the toughest teams to pass against. But now, aspects such as their coverage against play action has them ranked as one of the worst defenses in the league.

Neither the Bills nor the Cardinals look able to recover from the poor showings displayed in 2018 so far, and will most likely continue to tussle for the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. As it stands defensive end Nick Bosa, brother of the Chargers’ Joey, and defensive lineman Ed Oliver rank as the top projected picks, and we all know how much these two teams need reinforcements on defense.

Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!