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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

FanEx 12-Team Flex PPR Draft Recap, Rounds 6 to 12

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Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers

Can Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams do a complete 180 turn from his rookie season and outperform his average draft position? He cost an 11th round pick in the FanEx 12-team flex PPR draft.

Continuing my FanEx 12-team flex PPR draft recap, drafting a top QB in the 4th round (Aaron Rodgers) and a top TE (Greg Olsen) in the fifth is clearly going to leave your team behind (on paper) at RB and WR.

This is the time to lean on your drafting skills, stockpiling backs and receivers who represent good value. Running back is tougher than wide receiver because the guys with a clearly defined role of significant carries are long gone, but I still won’t pass on a receiver I feel could really outperform his draft position to reach for a running back.

Rounds 6 to 12

6.05 RB Dion Lewis, TEN

Dion Lewis should have a decent role with the Titans. I like Derrick Henry a fair bit but the way things appear to be shaking out in terms of touches, these two should be closer together on draft boards. They want to spread out the offense which would seem to align more with Lewis’ skills. Still, Lewis has a poor injury history prior to last season. I wouldn’t be very interested in a standard league but PPR scoring boosts Lewis to an acceptable, albeit a little risky, RB2.

7.08 WR Marquise Goodwin, SF

I’ve come full circle on the Goodwin versus Pierre Garcon debate, after listening to reports out of San Francisco 49ers camp from Adam Caplan about Goodwin looking the part of a true number one wide receiver. Not that reports on Garcon are poor. I still think Garcon is a good value as a mid-round pick, but Goodwin represents excellent upside if he can build on what he and Jimmy Garoppolo started last season. The first three of the five game win streak saw Goodwin record games of 8-99, 6-106 and 10-114.

8.05 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

It isn’t ideal to have two wide receivers from the same team but Sanders seems very undervalued as the 38th WR off the board after finishing WR6, WR19 and WR20 from 2014-2016. Even if we throw out 2014, Peyton Manning’s next to final season, we can similarly discount last season’s nightmare at quarterback for the Broncos. The addition of Courtland Sutton is a plus for Sanders allowing him to work out of the slot position more. I should try to work a trade involving Thomas to diversify a bit, or maybe draft Case Keenum and hope to catch lightning in a bottle with the trio.

10.05 RB Chris Thompson, WAS

Noting again my ninth round pick was gone in the trade for Bell, I did think a player like Ty Montgomery could make it here but my fellow owners are doing a pretty good job grabbing running backs. My concern with Thompson is his return from a broken leg and how quickly he can get back up to speed. He was great last season prior to injury, and having a rookie in front of him and not much else on the depth chart should give him sufficient opportunity to get on the field and contribute.

Update: Derrius Guice tore his ACL in the Washington Redskins preseason opener. This doesn’t necessarily mean more touches for Thompson, as he may not be able to handle that, but felt it was worth mentioning that news broke after I drafted Thompson and wrote this blurb.

11.08 WR Mike Williams, LAC

My running back depth is thin but I can’t help myself taking a fifth wide receiver, another player I think is capable of outperforming his draft position. His rookie season was a write-off, but he has first round pedigree, checks in nicely as a big target for Philip Rivers at 6’4″, 220 lbs., and I want a piece of this Chargers offense. Williams ADP is rising slightly with reports of him being a big red zone target since Hunter Henry is out of the picture and Antonio Gates isn’t signed yet.

12.05 RB Aaron Jones, GB

I don’t love Aaron Jones, or the Packers running game as a whole. I do think Ty Montgomery is the best value pick of the group for PPR drafts based on ADP. However, there isn’t normally this much separation in fantasy drafts between Jones, Montgomery (drafted 9.03) and Jamaal Williams (drafted 7.10). Jones was the most effective of the Packers backs last season, even though Williams was the late season starter. Williams should get first shot again due to Jones’ upcoming two-game suspension, but I do expect Jones to take over starter duties, and at this cheap price at my weakest position, definitely worth a shot here.

Rosters and Draft Board

So there you have it, my roster through 12 rounds (11 picks). This is pretty common how I would construct a team in a 12-team flex PPR draft – strong at wide receiver, top tight end and weaker at running back. I am okay with this because running back is often the position that can be acquired off the waiver wire early in the season thanks to the high turnover at the position, and it is more matchup dependent.

The less than usual thing is having the consensus number one quarterback, so running back is even weaker than normal. An alternative to this team might look something like Alex Collins or Jay Ajayi instead of Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo or Matt Ryan instead of Chris Thompson. Dion Lewis is still there but as an RB3. That roster is possibly even preferable – lots of love for Jimmy G this season – but as mentioned in part 1, not necessarily doable in many local leagues because quarterbacks are drafted earlier than this league.

Click the screenshots from Draft Buddy for all team rosters and rank of players drafted by position.

FanEx 12-Team Flex PPR Draft Recap, Rounds 1 to 5

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Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Le’Veon Bell is betting on himself again this season, and I am along for the ride, trading up and taking him 1.04 in the FanEx fantasy football experts league draft.

The annual FanEx draft is underway! This is my fourth year in this fantasy football experts league, and (toot, toot) I am the defending champion of the American Conference. Reviewing my FanEx history, I have back-to-back-to-back 8-6 regular season records, two playoff appearances and a championship.

This is a tough league format because only four teams make the playoffs, playing Weeks 15-16, instead of the more common six teams (of 12) playing Weeks 14-16. The three division winners make the playoffs and smartly – and fortunately – the wild card team is the highest scoring team regardless of record. That is how I qualified last year. A look at the final regular season standings shows I scored the second most points in the league. Look at the points allowed – over 300 points against higher than a few teams! A little amazing I managed an 8-6 record.

The format is pretty common flex lineup and point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. This is a 12-team league, starting lineup 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 1 Flex RB/WR/TE. Scoring 4 points per passing TD, 6 for rushing/receiving TD, 1 per 20 passing yards, 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, and 1 PPR all positions. Randomly assigned the eighth pick in the draft, here is how the 2018 draft is going so far.

Rounds 1 to 5

1.04 RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

I have some concerns with Bell discussed in my first round pick considerations, but not enough concern to pull Bell out of the Top 3. For a more elaborate explanation of potential concerns about Bell, check out Doug Orth’s PPR Big Board, in which he ranked Bell outside his Top 10. Although Doug admits he would still draft him at least once this season. Maybe this is my once.

At any rate, I didn’t even have the fourth overall pick, but rather, the eighth. The 1.04 pick holder, Ian Allan, must also have some reservations, and offered to trade his 1.04 and 20th round pick for my 1.08 and 9th round pick. While I was perfectly fine to sit at eight (Hopkins or Odell?), I also thought, why not make the trade with Bell still on the board? Bell is betting on himself once again for a monster year to earn a big contract. I will take a shot betting on him, too.

2.05 WR Davante Adams, GB

Davante Adams and Michael Thomas seem joined at the hip this fantasy draft season. In my FFPC superflex draft I grabbed Adams at 3.01 and Thomas was taken right after. In this one, Alan Satterlee drafted Thomas right before my pick allowing me to increase my investment in Adams.

There are still many exceptional players available at this spot. The next six picks in order: Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green. Now who wouldn’t be happy with pretty much any of those guys at this point in time? The short story for me on Adams though is I believe the probability of him scoring double digit touchdowns is higher than almost any other receiver. Only two wide outs did it last season, him being one, with Aaron Rodgers only playing six games. A healthy Rodgers and departed Jordy Nelson, the stars are aligning for a potential special year for Adams.

3.08 WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN

To take a running back at this pick feels like I am reaching a little, although I am coming around on Miami Dolphins Kenyan Drake. As a value drafter, I like to take some chances to see if particular players get passed and make it to my next pick. Drake did not make it, getting drafted 4.01.

While the current tier of available wide receivers is of fair depth, including Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald and Allen Robinson, it seems to me Thomas stands out with a better combination of more skill and less risk than the other three (apologies Larry). Reports from Denver Broncos camp is Case Keenum is doing well connecting with Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. There are a bunch of targets in Denver to be spread around to not that many players, something called, “a narrow tree,” on Sirius XM fantasy radio recently. Good phrase.

4.05 QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

This one is a bit tough, and one reason these fantasy football experts leagues are not always the best guide to most fantasy football players local leagues. I know most of the guys I am drafting against will wait, wait and wait at quarterback. As of writing this the draft is in the 11th round. Here is the pick distribution of the quarterback position by round through ten:

RoundNumber of QB Drafted
1-30
42
51
61
70
82
94
106

It is a huge waiting game. The consensus top guy though – Rodgers, obviously – should he fall past the third round? I considered him last time and he is still hanging around because everyone is sucking up RB, WR and the top TE. I wait at QB myself more often than not, but staying flexible, is this a fair value to add Rodgers, accepting I will be a little weaker at RB and WR? Yes, I think so.

5.08 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

The drafting of Rodgers motivated a couple owners to nab their starting quarterback, but not enough and not enough higher ADP tight ends like Evan Engram went between my fourth and fifth picks to allow a running back to fall to my liking. Thought I had an outside shot at Jay Ajayi, and more likely Lamar Miller, but neither made it.

Regardless of how David Njoku and Nick Vannett did last night, the tight end position is still thin overall, and in a PPR draft especially, I like the advantage of a reliable tight end. Engram is usually the next tight end off the board in drafts but I am more partial to Greg Olsen. Engram is very talented and young, but the new competition for targets on the Giants has me leery he can repeat or improve on last season. Olsen is old reliable for Cam Newton, and the two picked up where they left off when Olsen returned from injury. His final four games, including the Wild Card game, saw targets of 12, 6, 9 and 12.

Continued rounds 6 to 12, including screenshots of all team rosters and position rankings through 12 rounds.