Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 21)

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB20)

Jimmy Garoppolo is a full participant at the start of training camp. He only played 9 games through two seasons with the 49ers, fantasy owners are skeptical. If he is healthy enough, then draft the talent and system. Garoppolo could prove to be a bargain as a late drafted QB.

Yikes, I wrote that first note awhile ago and Garoppolo has been nothing short of terrible. Not that we want to put very much weight on the preseason but it sure doesn’t give a lot of confidence. Fantasy players are now questioning Garoppolo’s job security. This is one of my bigger preseason surprises.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 21)

Tevin Coleman (RB30), Matt Breida (RB49), Jerick McKinnon (RB59)

Jerick McKinnon came off the PUP list to join training camp… and promptly suffered some knee pain. To me, this looks like Tevin Coleman’s job to lose at this point. They can’t trust McKinnon to stay on the field.

Update: And he hasn’t stayed on the field.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 21)

Dante Pettis (WR36), Deebo Samuel (WR63), Marquise Goodwin (WR75), Jalen Hurd (WR80), Trent Taylor (WR107)

Rookie Deebo Samuel missed some offseason work with a hip injury but expects to be ready to participate in training camp. Or a groin injury? An early report indicates a tweaked groin. Any missed time is a negative to rookies to get up to speed making this noteworthy considering many expect Samuel to be a significant contributor early in his career.

Jalen Hurd, former RB turned WR and whose tail-of-the-tape is 6’4″, 230 lbs., impressed in the 49ers preseason opener. Trent Taylor is out indefinitely after requiring foot surgery. Hurd is a longer-term project given the position switch but his playing time could accelerate. Taylor was the projected starting slot receiver.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 21)

George Kittle (TE3)

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

Now somewhat cheaper on draft day due to his training camp and preseason struggles, I am still willing to draft Garoppolo as a backup with some breakout upside. I am just not seeking it out very aggressively. He showed a lot of promise prior to the knee injury, so this journeyman QB persona now he is healthy is very strange. Still putting faith in him as a talented QB and the system is proven to be very good.

It is the Tevin Coleman show at running back, mostly. I would be happy to draft Coleman around where he is going, in the RB 25 to 30 range. Again, proven system, and one Coleman knows well. Jerrick McKinnon is a non-factor at this point because he can’t stay healthy.

The only slight trepidation on Coleman is the presence of Matt Breida. Breida is a gamer, a hard worker. He isn’t any coach’s first choice for significant RB touches, but he’s also a player coaches love. When the depth chart gets thin and Breida is still standing, he gets the call and does well with it, like last season.

Breida will cap Coleman, and I don’t even mind drafting Breida mid to late rounds given it is now a short line to prime opportunity for him. I’m just not sure he will hold up if/when he gets there, so he isn’t a must-have by any stretch. More like decent RB depth when stockpiling guys because you started your draft heavy at receiver.

Dante Pettis, not unlike Garoppolo, has the fantasy community quickly turning their backs on him before the season even starts. Slated as the number one guy (even though admittedly, this is only his second season), coach Kyle Shanahan challenged Pettis to do better. Rookies Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd are outplaying him in preseason.

I still say, draft Pettis. Enjoy the discounted price from drafts back in June and July. The challenged by his coach news, it does seem like a motivational tactic by Shanahan to which fantasy players are overreacting. The number one receiver in Shanahan’s offense performs well historically, and that is still Pettis unless Samuel really beats the odds and breaks out as a rookie.

Between George Kittle, a number one receiver I believe is Pettis, Garoppolo’s struggles and all-in-all not expecting this to be a high flying offense, that doesn’t leave much for any other receiver. To that end, I am not really targeting Samuel or Jalen Hurd or Trent Taylor in drafts. Deep, flier type guys, sure. Dynasty targets, absolutely. Expected redraft contributors, not very good odds.

I didn’t even mention Marquise Goodwin, last year’s projected number one receiver. He’s never stayed healthy and seems more like a poor man’s DeSean Jackson. High yards-per-catch but not many receptions, and not enough consistency to know when to start him. Pass.

George Kittle is, or was, usually the third TE off the board. Kittle ranks number two for me, mostly because I don’t think Zach Ertz can meet expectations with more receiving options on the Eagles. So Ertz is a tier down for me, meaning Kittle is even a little more valuable – he’s in more exclusive company.

In TE premium leagues (1.5 points-per-reception versus 1 PPR or less for RB and WR) I would go as early as mid to late-2nd for Kittle. Otherwise in regular PPR leagues I kind of see how the board falls to decide if I want to pay a premium for Kittle or not. It is really nice having an advantage at this position. Kittle certainly provides that.

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Nick Foles (QB27)

Listening to Adam Caplan on SiriusXM radio this morning (Aug. 12), he’s at Jacksonville’s training camp and said the injuries are piling up, including both tackles, Marqise Lee, Dede Westbrook (groin) and rookie Josh Oliver. On the positive side, Nick Foles is showing great leadership, but this may be a run-heavy team as much out of necessity as desire.

Foles is probably undervalued as an NFL quarterback and slightly undervalued for fantasy. Currently drafted outside the starters and backups in a 12-team league, he could finish inside the Top 24 playing all 16 games but that still doesn’t make him worth drafting. There is next to no upside here.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Leonard Fournette (RB14), Ryquell Armstead (RB66), Alfred Blue (RB81)

Leonard Fournette might be the least talked about top running back in fantasy football this year. Seeing very little Fournette discussion for a guy this talented and in line for such a high percentage of snaps. People assume he is destined to get injured or assume he will fly off the handle like last year and get suspended. Neither is a bad assumption.

That said, he is still drafted RB14 on average. He went RB16 or 32nd overall in my FanEx draft that started last week. The names around him are not bad names – Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs. The reward could be exceptional, but there is certainly significant downside risk, too.

Rookie Ryquell Armstead is showing well and cheap in drafts because it isn’t clear he is the primary backup with veteran Alfred Blue in the picture. Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio considered Armstead landing in Jacksonville a good fit. To quote the RSP:

A big, fast, and physical athlete, Armstead is starter-caliber gap runner and a UDFA-caliber receiver and zone runner.

So, Armstead can’t catch. And Blue can’t catch. Is Benny Cunningham still there? He can catch but fourth in the pecking order at this point doesn’t bode well.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Dede Westbrook (WR42), Marqise Lee (WR59), D.J. Chark (WR93), Keelan Cole (WR98), Chris Conley (WR119)

Whether Marqise Lee can return to health for training camp and the start of the season remains to be seen. If he does, then it will be tough for Terrelle Pryor to make the team. In early July, ESPN’s Michael DiRocco indicates the top 5 spots are, “pretty much settled.” Those spots go to Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, D.J. Chark, Chris Conley – noted as the best receiver in OTAs – and Lee.

Now training camp is underway it appears Lee is in tough to earn significant playing time. Could he go on regular season PUP and miss the first six weeks? It is possible, making him an avoid even late in best ball drafts.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Josh Oliver (TE39), Geoff Swaim (TE47)

Geoff Swaim is the starting tight end. Oliver a raw rookie. Foles should certainly value the tight end given his NFL career, which might lead one to believe there is some value here. Not sure these guys are up for it though.

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

Not drafting Foles unless it is a superflex league as a third. Maybe late in a non–superflex best ball if it is poignant to draft a third QB based on your first two.

This shouldn’t need a lot of explaining. The Jaguars are not going to air it out. It is not in their DNA and for good reason. They won’t be successful with it anyway. Fournette is a very good pass catcher, but the tight end position is very weak and there just isn’t enough depth or quality at wide receiver for Foles to put up good numbers with any consistency.

Now what to do with Leonard Fournette? This is a player I am struggling to figure out as much as any Top 100 player for fantasy this season. The talent is excellent and there is no one remotely competing for touches on this team. If Fournette can stay healthy, then he would be in line for Saquon Barkley-Christian McCaffrey level volume.

Still, he isn’t super-cheap to draft as a mid-3rd round pick. I’ll admit, I’ve been avoiding him to this point given the risk of injury. Injured in college. Injured both NFL seasons. It seems inevitable with the guy. And drafting Armstead or Blue does not appear to insure against the potential missed weeks very well.

Right now I’ve got Fournette ranked below Freeman, Henry, Jacobs, Montgomery and ahead of Aaron Jones. I am going to move him above Henry and Jacobs. Freeman stays a notch ahead due to being in a better overall offense.

I want Fournette at just the right price to justify the risk he represents. Start 1 RB-1 WR or pair of WR early, plus indifferent for your next WR you can wait to the 4th there, Fournette is a calculated risk that could set you up for huge success.

At WR, Dede Westbrook comes at a nice price in the 40s at wide receiver. I’ve got him ranked 34th as of typing this. He’s drafted around guys who are number twos in offenses that throw the ball a lot more. So will Foles lock on to Westbrook for enough volume to push him into the Top 30? It wouldn’t surprise me if someone like D.J. Chark earns more targets than expected, but odds are in Westbrook’s favor to be the primary well ahead of his teammates.

Marqise Lee doesn’t look like he’ll be a factor at all to start the season – hard pass. Keelan Cole I liked last year but… meh, seems like a forgotten man. And Chris Conley – on the field for over 75% of the snaps in the Kansas City Chiefs offense last year… and mustered 32 catches at only 10 yards per catch. No thanks.

So draft Westbrook at his ADP or a bit earlier, he’s a WR4 with nice upside for more. Take a flier on Chark late if you have no other Jags’ exposure and really want some (i.e. weigh your other options). Pass on the rest.

Keep the Jacksonville tight ends on waivers.

Quarterback

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Jameis Winston (QB11)

This was a rollercoaster ride last season. It was frustrating because the team quarterback position output by the Bucs was exceptional. They ranked 2nd in fantasy points scored, about halfway between the points scored by the Kansas City Chiefs (1st) and Atlanta Falcons (3rd). Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick split snaps in each of Weeks 4, 8 and 11.

Bruce Arians comes to town as a hired gun offensive guru, and Fitzpatrick is out of the picture. That doesn’t necessarily mean it is a clear path to fantasy gold drafting Winston. Footballguys’ Jason Wood wrote an interesting piece on 5 coaching misconceptions. One throws considerable skepticism on Arian’s supposed offensive genius.

Did you know that in 14 NFL seasons as a play-caller, Arians has only fielded three top-10 offenses? … Arians coached five years in Arizona and has as many bottom-third offenses (2-2014 and 2017) as he did top-10 offenses (2-2015 and 2016). His teams averaged 14th in yards and 15th in points in Arizona. Not bad, but hardly something that screams transformational.

Wood goes on to discuss that when Arians’ offenses excelled, it was coupled with an excellent defensive unit. That seems unlikely to be the case in Tampa, especially in Year 1 of his tenure.

Running Back

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Ronald Jones (RB42), Peyton Barber (RB47), Bruce Anderson (RB76)

Peyton Barber or Ronald Jones, it is pretty unclear which RB, if any, will be the primary ball carrier for this offense. Both underwhelmed considerably last season. Barber was the first rusher in the past five years to record over 250 touches (234 carries, 20 catches) but failed to surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage (871 rushing, 92 receiving). Jones has the higher pedigree as a high 2018 second round draft pick.

In early-July, Greg Auman of The Athletic says it is, “very likely,” that Barber leads the team in rushing.

Some consideration that Jones could receive more targets as Winston appears committed to checking the ball down more than forcing a play that isn’t there.

Wide Receiver

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

Mike Evans (WR9), Chris Godwin (WR19), Justin Watson (WR107), Breshad Perriman (WR112)

Rookie Scott Miller is a name to know in a relatively thin WR depth chart. Veteran Breshad Perriman missed some spring practice due to injury.

Justin Watson is manning the slot position early in training camp… and watching film of Larry Fitzgerald. That bodes well. I am certainly not saying Watson is the next Fitzgerald but, when Bruce Arians went to Arizona he wanted Fitzgerald to play a role similar to Hines Ward from Arians’ days in Pittsburgh. Obviously, both players flourished in this offense.

Tight End

2018 Stats

2019 Players (MFL ADP, Aug 7)

O.J. Howard (TE4), Cameron Brate (TE29)

Fantasy players seem pretty high on O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate appears to be an afterthought if not forgotten completely.

Draft Strategy

a.k.a., what are we doing with these guys?

Last year I was pretty keen to draft the Tampa quarterbacks. This team has great offensive weapons. At the time, a still young and developing Winston faced a four-game suspension, so he was available at a good discount.

Covering that four games didn’t appear difficult either with gunslinger Ryan Fitzpatrick the set starter and drafted extremely late if at all. The final update of Draft Buddy last season shows Winston with an ADP of the 13th round and Fitzpatrick undrafted.

It didn’t work out quite as well as hoped, but all-in-all, pretty good for bargain shopping quarterbacks. Fitz helped win Weeks 1-3 even though Week 4 was a complete dud.

This year, Winston is on average the 11th QB off the board. While it doesn’t seem exceptionally expensive, quarterbacks often drafted after Winston include a laundry list of, “sure, I’ll take that guy.” Names like Jared Goff, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins. Some of these I like more than Winston – Goff, Jackson. Some less – Brees, Cousins.

The point is, why would I take Winston and the risk of Winston continuing to be the bonehead he’s shown at times, over these other guys? And I’m not, and neither should you.

Similarly but more to the point with the running backs, how poorly is Ronald Jones showing in training camp that Peyton Barber continues to be in the conversation of starter? There is nothing special about Barber. I can only surmise then, that there is not much special about Jones, either.

According to FantasyPros ADP, Jones is the 41st RB off the board and Barber is right behind him at 42nd. See, no one knows. If I had to take one, then take a shot on the younger guy Jones and hope last year was a severe case of being overwhelmed as a rookie.

More than likely, I am boosting my WR corps at this point of the draft instead of drafting either one of these guys. Don’t need the headache figuring out who to start, or patience, in this case, waiting for one to get injured so the other can, maybe, exceed expectations.

Wide receivers, now we are talking. Love Mike Evans. I admit I do shy away from him a little bit because of the other options for the premium pick. A RB could make more sense since the top guys at RB dry up quicker. Plus, Evans’ running mate Godwin is very good and seems to be a better red-zone target. Between Evans and, say, Amari Cooper, Cooper might have a cleaner path to being an Alpha receiver.

Speaking of Chris Godwin, he gets drafted right around the D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Calvin Ridley group of young, next generation emerging receivers. Ideally, I will draft two of these players as I very much like the cost-risk-reward they represent. Very often, Godwin is one I end up with, which further supports passing on Evans earlier. Don’t need two receivers from the same team competing for targets. It is better to diversify.

Re-reading my notes from above (I am writing these team reports over a long span of days) reminded me of Justin Watson. I haven’t drafted him or seen him drafted even in deep bestball drafts. Let’s keep him in mind as a potential early season waiver add.

I am off on O.J. Howard. I’m surprised where he is getting drafted given the poor track record of tight end usage by Bruce Arians. Sure, Howard is probably a better player than Arians’ had in the past, but there are two very good receivers on this team. Let someone else draft Howard and hope it all works out.