DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

Manuel Margot Has Trea Turner Potential

March 23, 2018 By Giles Clasen Leave a Comment

Trea Turner Lite? Giles Clasen thinks we’ve got exactly that in San Diego Padres CF Manuel Margot, which could be a huge bargain for a 12th round draft pick.

Fantasy baseball is all about predicting the future. But this isn’t a game for psychics. Our game is about using past numbers and thoughtful analysis to try and predict future success.

I rely on projections this time of year, such as Steamer and ZiPS, but these resources don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes we have to look beyond projections and use our gut a bit to find the next breakout player.

This year my gut is telling me Manuel Margot will be a Top 25 fantasy player. He has the potential to be Trea Turner Lite.

Manuel Margot

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2016 37 4 0 3 2 .243 .243 .405 $0
2017 487 53 13 39 17 .263 .313 .409 -$1
2018 (Steamer) 552 70 14 55 21 .259 .308 .402 $5
2018 (Zeile) 545 71 13 54 21 .266 .316 .413 $3
2018 (ZiPS) 539 65 12 51 20 .267 .315 .412 $0

I don’t say this flippantly. Trea Turner is one of the best players in fantasy and could top the ESPN player rater if he stays healthy. Justifiably, Turner is being drafted in the first round. So finding a player who can give you similar numbers in the twelfth round is extremely valuable.

When comparing Turner and Margot, I do recognize Turner hit the major leagues running, quite literally. In his first 73 games Turner hit 13 home runs, stole 33 bases and hit .342. Turner demanded our attention.

Turner followed up those gaudy 2016 numbers by swiping 46 bases in 95 games last year, while giving you double digit home runs and a solid average.

Trea Turner

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2015 40 5 1 1 2 .225 .295 .325 $0
2016 307 53 13 40 33 .342 .370 .567 $10
2017 412 75 11 45 46 .284 .338 .451 $14
2018 (Steamer) 567 94 16 65 49 .296 .345 .462 $28
2018 (Zeile) 559 94 16 65 49 .293 .342 .462 $32
2018 (ZiPS) 514 78 14 62 45 .280 .330 .444 $21

Margot is a year younger than Turner and has taken a bit more time to reach his potential. Positively speaking, Margot still has a lot of room to grow. He had a solid rookie season last year, but few would say that Margot’s numbers suggest he can hold a bat to Turner. However…

The first thing to note is Margot’s speed. The guy is fast. Statcast measured Margot as the 10th fastest guy in baseball, a hair faster than Turner. Sure, stealing a base requires more skill than just speed, but Margot, in theory, has the raw ability to take a base whenever he wants to.

Margot also plays for the San Diego Padres. This may not seem like a good thing, but trust me, it is. Manager Andy Green lets his players run, which is a rare thing these days.

In 2017 the Padres were in the top third of teams for attempted steals. That is valuable, because more and more teams are holding back their players. Margot should be given the opportunity to run if he wants to. All of this suggests Margot will have 30 or more steals in 2018. Last year only 6 players stole 30 bases.

I believe Margot has the ability to hit for power as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Margot hit 20 home runs this year. Margot showed a fair amount of improvement last year from the first half of the season to the second. His slugging went from .392 to .424 while slightly decreasing his strike out rate.

These numbers are slightly behind Turner’s, but if Margot can stretch his second half over the whole season, or continue to improve slightly, Margot could hit a few more over the fence than Turner in 2018.

In addition, Margot is hitting leadoff for an improved Padres team so his counting stats could also jump some from last year.

In 2017 we all watched Elvis Andrus go from being drafted outside the Top 200 to finishing a Top 20 payer. I believe Margot can accomplish the same thing.

At this time next year we won’t be talking about Margot as a regression candidate but as a player who finally arrived. Not quite Trea Turner, but not far off.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy Now Available for 2018

January 31, 2018 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

baseball field

Wow, has it really been a whole year since my last fantasy baseball post, “Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy 2017 Released”? Looks like it, and I am going to try to take some steps to improve in that respect, but first and foremost, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy is in fact ready for 2018.

As in prior years, Draft Buddy is FREE for you to download, use and update all the way through the start of the MLB season. New members need only register an account, check you want Draft Buddy and proceed to download. Existing members who had access to the 2017 version, that access should expire automatically, but you can renew by going to your member page, clicking Add/Renew Subscription, renewing (again – for free), and you are all set.

Draft Buddy once again includes fantasy baseball projections from Steamer (via Fangraphs) and Zeile (FantasyPros), plus ADP from National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Depth charts are updated by one of our own, member krby13. We should be able to add ZiPS projections plus ADP from FantasyPros once those are available. Thanks to all of these people and organizations for their contributions to Draft Buddy.

Last Player Picked is also updated for Steamer and Zeile projections as of today. There is a tentative update schedule on the Draft Buddy download page, I am still tinkering with our online cheatsheets to improve those, and go take the mock draft simulator for a spin. And away we go! Bring on fantasy baseball season!

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy, Last Player Picked

Draft Buddy 2.0 New Feature Top Available Players By Stat Plus ZiPS Projections, Update

March 4, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

New feature in Draft Buddy displays Top 25 players by projected stats for the traditional 5x5 roto categories. It updates as your draft progresses.

New feature in Draft Buddy displays Top 25 players by projected stats for the traditional 5×5 roto categories. It updates as your draft progresses.

It was a tough week to get things published on the website!

Early in the week I was working on sister website MyOfficePool.ca to get its annual March Madness Survivor Pools up and running. Then by the time that happened I was keen to roll out a new feature for the fantasy baseball version of Draft Buddy in addition to a full projections update. The ZiPS projections showed up too, and I also sandwiched in a Toronto Raptors game with the family, a 104-94 win over the Utah Jazz.

I’m sure you are most keen to hear about the new feature. It is a brand new tab in Draft Buddy displaying the Top 25 available players projected at each of the traditional 5×5 roto categories. It constantly updates as you track your draft in Draft Buddy, so if you are looking for stolen bases, check this tab. Looking for a late round middle reliever to help deflate your ERA and WHIP? Check this tab.

Mucho props to member Matt Cramer for suggesting this feature, and even constructing one himself that worked great after we discussed some ideas on how to create it. I took Matt’s work, made some modifications and voilà, new feature. The tab only appears for roto leagues, but if you guys in points leagues feel it would be useful for you too then let me know. You will need to download the new version 2.0 to take advantage of this feature.

I can see expanding on this in the future, such as adding Draft Player buttons and highlighting different positions. Past midnight last night I had to call it for now. It was excitement enough to reduce the number of Excel formulas necessary to pull off the updated rankings trick to about a third from what I originally envisioned.

The week would not be complete with a proper projections update, and we can even do one better than that. The ZiPS projections are now available, courtesy of Dan Szymborski. Thanks Dan! ZiPS are found in the third yellow section scrolling right on the hitters data and pitchers data tabs in Draft Buddy, plus you can use them with Last Player Picked and our Player Comparison online tool.

Last but certainly not least, Steamer-Fangraphs and Zeile projections are updated, plus ADP from FantasyPros and NFBC, and our depth charts thanks to member Kevin Baker (plus Mark I haven’t forgotten about your offer to help).

You can still use Draft Buddy 1.0 and get the update if you like, or download 2.0 and everything is already updated as of today in that new file. So who is drafting this weekend? Thanks and good luck!

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy, Last Player Picked

  • 1
  • 2
  • Next Page »
  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats

Copyright © 2020 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy