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Fantasy Baseball Projections Update + Improved Player Stats and News

January 18, 2019 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

The 2019 fantasy baseball version of Draft Buddy is updated for Steamer projections, NFBC ADP and depth charts. Plus, the Zeile projections from FantasyPros are now available and added to Draft Buddy. Note, I filtered the NFBC ADP from December 1, 2018 to give us a good number of drafts without being too stale.

If you already downloaded the 2019 version since it was released in December, then you can keep your current download and update the data. To get both sets of projections, then follow the steps in this new demo video:

Updating is particularly helpful if you are in the middle of a draft and want to save the draft picks already input in Draft Buddy. Or if you are in a keeper league and you’ve already input the kept players.

To make sure that data is saved, then uncheck the “Reset keepers” and “Reset draft order and picks” options found in the upper-left of the action tab PRIOR to updating projections.

Last Player Picked, the online auction calculator, is also updated for the Steamer and Zeile projections.

Fantasy Stats Research Tool

Our fantasy baseball player stats are improved, and I hope you like the changes. First, we have a lot more data as I pulled in all regular season game stats going back to 2010 for all players. Now you can filter our player stats for any date range in a season, to find out things like, RBI leaders from March 29, 2018 (Opening Day last year) through April 30:

The game stats are also improved in layout, now showing the visiting team and home team stats separately, side-by-side (on wider screens). That was bugging me from the prior version.

Other improvements I would like to see are dollar values and other fantasy point system scoring options to accompany the stats tables. This is a complicated issue.

The game log stats should make their way to the player pages eventually. I am also continuing to develop improvements to the stats (and the whole site) for smaller, mobile screens, since none of us can stay off our phones these days.

Player News Research Tool

We have a new fantasy baseball news tool. You may not have known there was an old one. The old one grabbed fantasy headlines from RotoWorld to include on the player pages, and we pushed those to Draft Buddy. The news updates in Draft Buddy are found on the far right side of the hitters data and pitchers data tabs.

The new tool tracks articles and posts from a lot more websites, including local and national news sources, team blogs, official team sites, and fantasy resources. Where possible, the tool tags all players mentioned in the article or post. I am still making some adjustments to refine the tagging by teams, players and keywords, like “prospect”, “contract”, etc. Here is recent news in which Mookie Betts is tagged:

Okay, that is it for today. If you want to contribute your fantasy baseball knowledge to the cause, then please let me know.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy, Last Player Picked

Manuel Margot Has Trea Turner Potential

March 23, 2018 By Giles Clasen Leave a Comment

Trea Turner Lite? Giles Clasen thinks we’ve got exactly that in San Diego Padres CF Manuel Margot, which could be a huge bargain for a 12th round draft pick.

Fantasy baseball is all about predicting the future. But this isn’t a game for psychics. Our game is about using past numbers and thoughtful analysis to try and predict future success.

I rely on projections this time of year, such as Steamer and ZiPS, but these resources don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes we have to look beyond projections and use our gut a bit to find the next breakout player.

This year my gut is telling me Manuel Margot will be a Top 25 fantasy player. He has the potential to be Trea Turner Lite.

Manuel Margot

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2016 37 4 0 3 2 .243 .243 .405 $0
2017 487 53 13 39 17 .263 .313 .409 -$1
2018 (Steamer) 552 70 14 55 21 .259 .308 .402 $5
2018 (Zeile) 545 71 13 54 21 .266 .316 .413 $3
2018 (ZiPS) 539 65 12 51 20 .267 .315 .412 $0

I don’t say this flippantly. Trea Turner is one of the best players in fantasy and could top the ESPN player rater if he stays healthy. Justifiably, Turner is being drafted in the first round. So finding a player who can give you similar numbers in the twelfth round is extremely valuable.

When comparing Turner and Margot, I do recognize Turner hit the major leagues running, quite literally. In his first 73 games Turner hit 13 home runs, stole 33 bases and hit .342. Turner demanded our attention.

Turner followed up those gaudy 2016 numbers by swiping 46 bases in 95 games last year, while giving you double digit home runs and a solid average.

Trea Turner

Season AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG 5X5
2015 40 5 1 1 2 .225 .295 .325 $0
2016 307 53 13 40 33 .342 .370 .567 $10
2017 412 75 11 45 46 .284 .338 .451 $14
2018 (Steamer) 567 94 16 65 49 .296 .345 .462 $28
2018 (Zeile) 559 94 16 65 49 .293 .342 .462 $32
2018 (ZiPS) 514 78 14 62 45 .280 .330 .444 $21

Margot is a year younger than Turner and has taken a bit more time to reach his potential. Positively speaking, Margot still has a lot of room to grow. He had a solid rookie season last year, but few would say that Margot’s numbers suggest he can hold a bat to Turner. However…

The first thing to note is Margot’s speed. The guy is fast. Statcast measured Margot as the 10th fastest guy in baseball, a hair faster than Turner. Sure, stealing a base requires more skill than just speed, but Margot, in theory, has the raw ability to take a base whenever he wants to.

Margot also plays for the San Diego Padres. This may not seem like a good thing, but trust me, it is. Manager Andy Green lets his players run, which is a rare thing these days.

In 2017 the Padres were in the top third of teams for attempted steals. That is valuable, because more and more teams are holding back their players. Margot should be given the opportunity to run if he wants to. All of this suggests Margot will have 30 or more steals in 2018. Last year only 6 players stole 30 bases.

I believe Margot has the ability to hit for power as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Margot hit 20 home runs this year. Margot showed a fair amount of improvement last year from the first half of the season to the second. His slugging went from .392 to .424 while slightly decreasing his strike out rate.

These numbers are slightly behind Turner’s, but if Margot can stretch his second half over the whole season, or continue to improve slightly, Margot could hit a few more over the fence than Turner in 2018.

In addition, Margot is hitting leadoff for an improved Padres team so his counting stats could also jump some from last year.

In 2017 we all watched Elvis Andrus go from being drafted outside the Top 200 to finishing a Top 20 payer. I believe Margot can accomplish the same thing.

At this time next year we won’t be talking about Margot as a regression candidate but as a player who finally arrived. Not quite Trea Turner, but not far off.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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