Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.
Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.
Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.
When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through Round 10 | 57% | 56% | 57% | 73% | 4.50 |
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through Round 10 | 32% | 48% | 35% | 3.75 | 4.75 |
With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.
As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…
Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney
Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quintana | 13% | 0% | 12% | -1.25 | -2.00 |
| Heaney | 11% | 0% | 12% | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| Porcello | 15% | 0% | 12% | -2.50 | -1.00 |
Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Pitching Total | 32% | 48% | 35% | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Heaney | 11% | 0% | 12% | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| New Pitching Total | 43% | 48% | 47% | 2.75 | 4.25 |
Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado
David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).
Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Pitching Total | 43% | 48% | 47% | 2.75 | 4.25 |
| Alvarado | 3% | 29% | 5% | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| New Pitching Total | 46% | 77% | 52% | 3.25 | 4.00 |
Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer
I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.
Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:
- Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
- Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 57% | 56% | 57% | 73% | 4.50 |
| Hosmer | 7% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 0.50 |
| New Batting Total | 64% | 64% | 65% | 77% | 5.00 |
If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.
With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.
Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling
This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).
Special thanks to Nick Pollack aka @PitcherList for joining me on Benched with Bubba EP 149 to talk a ton of #FantasyBaseball Starting Pitchers outside the Top 25 & much morehttps://t.co/RpF7MQX3Pg
— KC Bubba (@bdentrek) March 1, 2019
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Pitching Total | 46% | 77% | 52% | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| Stripling | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| New Pitching Total | 54% | 77% | 60% | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.
Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler
Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.
He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 64% | 64% | 65% | 77% | 5.00 |
| Kepler | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% | -1.00 |
| New Batting Total | 72% | 71% | 72% | 81% | 4.00 |
Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller
I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Pitching Total | 54% | 77% | 60% | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Miller | 4% | 13% | 6% | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| New Pitching Total | 58% | 90% | 66% | 4.25 | 4.50 |
Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo
It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 72% | 71% | 72% | 81% | 4.00 |
| Castillo | 5% | 4% | 5% | 1% | -0.25 |
| New Batting Total | 77% | 75% | 77% | 82% | 3.75 |
Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco
Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seager (drafted 16.05) | 8% | 7% | 8% | 1% | -1.50 |
| Franco | 8% | 6% | 7% | 1% | -0.25 |
Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 77% | 75% | 77% | 82% | 3.75 |
| Franco | 8% | 6% | 7% | 1% | -0.25 |
| New Batting Total | 85% | 81% | 84% | 83% | 3.50 |
Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera
I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.
Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 85% | 81% | 84% | 83% | 3.50 |
| Herrera | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 0.00 |
| New Batting Total | 91% | 87% | 91% | 89% | 3.50 |
Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis
Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Pitching Total | 58% | 90% | 66% | 4.25 | 4.50 |
| Junis | 11% | 0% | 11% | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| New Pitching Total | 69% | 90% | 77% | 2.25 | 3.50 |
Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun
My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prev. Batting Total | 91% | 87% | 91% | 89% | 3.50 |
| Calhoun | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | -1.75 |
| New Batting Total | 97% | 94% | 98% | 93% | 1.75 |
Here are the rest of my picks:
- Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
- Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
- Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
- Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
- Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
- Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
- Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
- Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
- Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.
Closing Thoughts
Here are my starting bats:
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C – Wellington Castillo | 5% | 4% | 5% | 1% | -0.25 |
| C – Tyler Flowers | 3% | 4% | 4% | 0% | -0.50 |
| 1B – Freddie Freeman | 9% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 3.50 |
| 2B – Brian Dozier | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | -1.50 |
| 3B – Maikel Franco | 8% | 6% | 7% | 1% | -0.25 |
| SS – Xander Bogaerts | 7% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 1.75 |
| OF – Starling Marte | 6% | 8% | 7% | 24% | 1.25 |
| OF – Eddie Rosario | 9% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 1.25 |
| OF – Max Kepler | 8% | 7% | 7% | 4% | -1.00 |
| OF – Odubel Herrera | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 0.00 |
| OF – Kole Calhoun | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | -1.75 |
| MI – Tim Anderson | 6% | 7% | 6% | 18% | -0.75 |
| CI – Matt Olson | 11% | 8% | 9% | 1% | -1.00 |
| UT – Eric Hosmer | 7% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 0.50 |
| Starters Total | 100% | 98% | 102% | 93% | 1.25 |
I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:
| Name | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 6% | 7% | 6% | 0.02 |
| Starlin Castro | 2B | 5% | 6% | 6% | 0.04 |
| Zack Cozart | 3B | 5% | 6% | 5% | 0.01 |
With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale | 16% | 0% | 17% | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Charlie Morton | 13% | 0% | 12% | 0.00 | -0.50 |
| Andrew Heaney | 11% | 0% | 12% | -1.00 | -0.50 |
| Ross Stripling | 8% | 0% | 8% | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Kenley Jansen | 3% | 48% | 6% | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Jose Alvarado | 3% | 29% | 5% | 0.50 | -0.25 |
| Andrew Miller | 4% | 13% | 6% | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Core Pitching Total | 58% | 90% | 66% | 4.25 | 4.50 |
And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:
| Name | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Junis | 11% | 0% | 11% | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| Zach Eflin | 12% | 0% | 9% | -1.75 | -1.00 |
| Trevor Cahill | 8% | 0% | 8% | -1.25 | -2.00 |
| Robbie Erlin | 6% | 0% | 6% | -1.50 | -0.75 |
| Ryan Brasier | 3% | 18% | 4% | 0.00 | 0.00 |
If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.
Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!