DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Saturday August 11

August 11, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Drew Hutchison TEX who has faced 110 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Drew Hutchison is currently allowing 133% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.38 (2.55 x 133%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees RHP at home Drew Hutchison TEX 110 2.55 x 133% 3.38 +0.83 1.91 x 131% 2.50 +0.58
Phillies RHP on road Walker Lockett SDP 56 1.99 x 151% 3.00 +1.01 1.52 x 147% 2.24 +0.72
Red Sox RHP on road Yefry Ramirez BAL 158 2.38 x 115% 2.74 +0.36 1.80 x 112% 2.03 +0.22
Reds LHP at home Robbie Ray ARI 308 2.28 x 112% 2.56 +0.28 1.71 x 110% 1.89 +0.18
Diamondbacks LHP on road Matt Harvey CIN 451 2.18 x 115% 2.51 +0.33 1.65 x 115% 1.90 +0.24
Cardinals LHP on road Danny Duffy KCR 612 2.35 x 106% 2.48 +0.14 1.76 x 106% 1.86 +0.10
Mets RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 401 2.25 x 110% 2.48 +0.22 1.70 x 108% 1.83 +0.13
Brewers RHP on road Julio Teheran ATL 508 2.07 x 108% 2.23 +0.16 1.60 x 105% 1.68 +0.08
Indians RHP on road James Shields CHW 642 2.09 x 107% 2.23 +0.14 1.59 x 104% 1.66 +0.07
Rays RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 347 1.96 x 112% 2.19 +0.23 1.51 x 112% 1.68 +0.17
Cubs RHP at home Tanner Roark WSN 578 2.25 x 98% 2.20 -0.05 1.70 x 98% 1.67 -0.03
Twins RHP on road Francisco Liriano DET 387 2.06 x 106% 2.18 +0.12 1.56 x 104% 1.63 +0.07
Blue Jays TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.16 x 100% 2.16 +0.00 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00
Athletics LHP on road Tyler Skaggs LAA 472 2.37 x 90% 2.12 -0.24 1.79 x 91% 1.64 -0.16
Astros LHP at home Wade LeBlanc SEA 460 2.14 x 97% 2.08 -0.07 1.64 x 98% 1.61 -0.03
Pirates TBD on road TBD/Bullpen SFG – 2.10 x 100% 2.10 +0.00 1.60 x 100% 1.60 +0.00
Orioles LHP at home David Price BOS 533 2.10 x 99% 2.07 -0.02 1.62 x 99% 1.61 -0.01
Giants RHP at home Trevor Williams PIT 489 2.13 x 97% 2.06 -0.06 1.62 x 97% 1.57 -0.05
Rockies RHP at home Walker Buehler LAD 301 2.32 x 89% 2.05 -0.26 1.77 x 89% 1.58 -0.19
Rangers RHP on road Lance Lynn NYY 511 1.99 x 103% 2.05 +0.06 1.52 x 102% 1.54 +0.03
Angels RHP at home Edwin Jackson OAK 189 2.39 x 85% 2.04 -0.35 1.80 x 86% 1.54 -0.26
Marlins RHP at home Corey Oswalt NYM 134 1.83 x 106% 1.94 +0.11 1.42 x 104% 1.48 +0.06
Nationals LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 549 1.99 x 98% 1.94 -0.05 1.51 x 98% 1.48 -0.03
Red Sox TBD on road TBD (Game 2) – 1.85 x 100% 1.85 +0.00 1.42 x 100% 1.42 +0.00
Tigers RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 584 1.99 x 92% 1.83 -0.16 1.53 x 92% 1.40 -0.13
Mariners RHP on road Charlie Morton HOU 543 2.17 x 82% 1.77 -0.40 1.66 x 82% 1.36 -0.30
Orioles TBD at home TBD (Game 2) – 1.62 x 100% 1.62 +0.00 1.28 x 100% 1.28 +0.00
Dodgers LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 582 1.94 x 84% 1.62 -0.31 1.47 x 86% 1.25 -0.21
Royals RHP at home Jack Flaherty STL 395 1.86 x 87% 1.62 -0.23 1.43 x 87% 1.25 -0.18
White Sox RHP at home Trevor Bauer CLE 659 2.12 x 73% 1.56 -0.56 1.63 x 74% 1.21 -0.42
Braves LHP at home Wade Miley MIL 143 2.10 x 70% 1.48 -0.62 1.60 x 71% 1.13 -0.46
Padres RHP at home Aaron Nola PHI 580 1.86 x 68% 1.27 -0.59 1.43 x 70% 1.00 -0.42

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats

Copyright © 2020 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy