My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Drew Hutchison TEX who has faced 110 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Drew Hutchison is currently allowing 133% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.38 (2.55 x 133%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
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RHP at home | Drew Hutchison TEX | 110 | 2.55 x 133% | 3.38 | +0.83 | 1.91 x 131% | 2.50 | +0.58 |
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RHP on road | Walker Lockett SDP | 56 | 1.99 x 151% | 3.00 | +1.01 | 1.52 x 147% | 2.24 | +0.72 |
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RHP on road | Yefry Ramirez BAL | 158 | 2.38 x 115% | 2.74 | +0.36 | 1.80 x 112% | 2.03 | +0.22 |
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LHP at home | Robbie Ray ARI | 308 | 2.28 x 112% | 2.56 | +0.28 | 1.71 x 110% | 1.89 | +0.18 |
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LHP on road | Matt Harvey CIN | 451 | 2.18 x 115% | 2.51 | +0.33 | 1.65 x 115% | 1.90 | +0.24 |
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LHP on road | Danny Duffy KCR | 612 | 2.35 x 106% | 2.48 | +0.14 | 1.76 x 106% | 1.86 | +0.10 |
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RHP on road | Dan Straily MIA | 401 | 2.25 x 110% | 2.48 | +0.22 | 1.70 x 108% | 1.83 | +0.13 |
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RHP on road | Julio Teheran ATL | 508 | 2.07 x 108% | 2.23 | +0.16 | 1.60 x 105% | 1.68 | +0.08 |
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RHP on road | James Shields CHW | 642 | 2.09 x 107% | 2.23 | +0.14 | 1.59 x 104% | 1.66 | +0.07 |
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RHP on road | Sam Gaviglio TOR | 347 | 1.96 x 112% | 2.19 | +0.23 | 1.51 x 112% | 1.68 | +0.17 |
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RHP at home | Tanner Roark WSN | 578 | 2.25 x 98% | 2.20 | -0.05 | 1.70 x 98% | 1.67 | -0.03 |
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RHP on road | Francisco Liriano DET | 387 | 2.06 x 106% | 2.18 | +0.12 | 1.56 x 104% | 1.63 | +0.07 |
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TBD at home | TBD/Bullpen TBR | – | 2.16 x 100% | 2.16 | +0.00 | 1.63 x 100% | 1.63 | +0.00 |
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LHP on road | Tyler Skaggs LAA | 472 | 2.37 x 90% | 2.12 | -0.24 | 1.79 x 91% | 1.64 | -0.16 |
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LHP at home | Wade LeBlanc SEA | 460 | 2.14 x 97% | 2.08 | -0.07 | 1.64 x 98% | 1.61 | -0.03 |
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TBD on road | TBD/Bullpen SFG | – | 2.10 x 100% | 2.10 | +0.00 | 1.60 x 100% | 1.60 | +0.00 |
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LHP at home | David Price BOS | 533 | 2.10 x 99% | 2.07 | -0.02 | 1.62 x 99% | 1.61 | -0.01 |
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RHP at home | Trevor Williams PIT | 489 | 2.13 x 97% | 2.06 | -0.06 | 1.62 x 97% | 1.57 | -0.05 |
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RHP at home | Walker Buehler LAD | 301 | 2.32 x 89% | 2.05 | -0.26 | 1.77 x 89% | 1.58 | -0.19 |
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RHP on road | Lance Lynn NYY | 511 | 1.99 x 103% | 2.05 | +0.06 | 1.52 x 102% | 1.54 | +0.03 |
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RHP at home | Edwin Jackson OAK | 189 | 2.39 x 85% | 2.04 | -0.35 | 1.80 x 86% | 1.54 | -0.26 |
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RHP at home | Corey Oswalt NYM | 134 | 1.83 x 106% | 1.94 | +0.11 | 1.42 x 104% | 1.48 | +0.06 |
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LHP on road | Jon Lester CHC | 549 | 1.99 x 98% | 1.94 | -0.05 | 1.51 x 98% | 1.48 | -0.03 |
|
TBD on road | TBD (Game 2) | – | 1.85 x 100% | 1.85 | +0.00 | 1.42 x 100% | 1.42 | +0.00 |
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RHP at home | Kyle Gibson MIN | 584 | 1.99 x 92% | 1.83 | -0.16 | 1.53 x 92% | 1.40 | -0.13 |
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RHP on road | Charlie Morton HOU | 543 | 2.17 x 82% | 1.77 | -0.40 | 1.66 x 82% | 1.36 | -0.30 |
|
TBD at home | TBD (Game 2) | – | 1.62 x 100% | 1.62 | +0.00 | 1.28 x 100% | 1.28 | +0.00 |
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LHP on road | Kyle Freeland COL | 582 | 1.94 x 84% | 1.62 | -0.31 | 1.47 x 86% | 1.25 | -0.21 |
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RHP at home | Jack Flaherty STL | 395 | 1.86 x 87% | 1.62 | -0.23 | 1.43 x 87% | 1.25 | -0.18 |
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RHP at home | Trevor Bauer CLE | 659 | 2.12 x 73% | 1.56 | -0.56 | 1.63 x 74% | 1.21 | -0.42 |
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LHP at home | Wade Miley MIL | 143 | 2.10 x 70% | 1.48 | -0.62 | 1.60 x 71% | 1.13 | -0.46 |
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RHP at home | Aaron Nola PHI | 580 | 1.86 x 68% | 1.27 | -0.59 | 1.43 x 70% | 1.00 | -0.42 |
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