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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Friday June 29

June 29, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Stack #1
Astros
·
Stack #2
Angels
·
Stack #3
Pirates

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Houston Astros are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.48 FanDuel and 1.87 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Wilmer Font TBR and he is currently allowing 135% more ppa in FanDuel and 135% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.094 on FanDuel and 1.598 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.48 x 135% in FanDuel and 1.87 x 135% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.094 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack HOU RHP on road 2.48 Wilmer Font TBR 135% 3.36
Stack LAA RHP on road 2.28 David Hess BAL 122% 2.78
Stack PIT LHP on road 2.28 Eric Lauer SDP 118% 2.69
Stack ARI LHP at home 2.37 Andrew Suarez SFG 109% 2.58
Stack LAD LHP at home 2.18 Tyler Anderson COL 113% 2.48
— — — — — — —
Avoid SFG LHP on road 1.89 Patrick Corbin ARI 82% 1.55
Avoid OAK RHP at home 1.88 Trevor Bauer CLE 77% 1.45
Avoid MIA RHP at home 1.83 Jacob deGrom NYM 65% 1.19

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.598 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa
Stack HOU RHP on road 1.87 Wilmer Font TBR 135% 2.52
Stack LAA RHP on road 1.74 David Hess BAL 121% 2.10
Stack PIT LHP on road 1.72 Eric Lauer SDP 119% 2.04
Stack ARI LHP at home 1.81 Andrew Suarez SFG 110% 1.99
Stack LAD LHP at home 1.65 Tyler Anderson COL 113% 1.87
— — — — — — —
Avoid SFG LHP on road 1.45 Patrick Corbin ARI 83% 1.20
Avoid OAK RHP at home 1.44 Trevor Bauer CLE 78% 1.12
Avoid MIA RHP at home 1.42 Jacob deGrom NYM 68% 0.96

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