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Stack #2
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Stack #3
Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Houston Astros are facing a RHP on road and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.48 FanDuel and 1.87 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Wilmer Font TBR and he is currently allowing 135% more ppa in FanDuel and 135% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.094 on FanDuel and 1.598 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.48 x 135% in FanDuel and 1.87 x 135% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.094 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | HOU | RHP on road | 2.48 | Wilmer Font TBR | 135% | 3.36 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 2.28 | David Hess BAL | 122% | 2.78 |
| Stack | PIT | LHP on road | 2.28 | Eric Lauer SDP | 118% | 2.69 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP at home | 2.37 | Andrew Suarez SFG | 109% | 2.58 |
| Stack | LAD | LHP at home | 2.18 | Tyler Anderson COL | 113% | 2.48 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | SFG | LHP on road | 1.89 | Patrick Corbin ARI | 82% | 1.55 |
| Avoid | OAK | RHP at home | 1.88 | Trevor Bauer CLE | 77% | 1.45 |
| Avoid | MIA | RHP at home | 1.83 | Jacob deGrom NYM | 65% | 1.19 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.598 through yesterday
| Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stack | HOU | RHP on road | 1.87 | Wilmer Font TBR | 135% | 2.52 |
| Stack | LAA | RHP on road | 1.74 | David Hess BAL | 121% | 2.10 |
| Stack | PIT | LHP on road | 1.72 | Eric Lauer SDP | 119% | 2.04 |
| Stack | ARI | LHP at home | 1.81 | Andrew Suarez SFG | 110% | 1.99 |
| Stack | LAD | LHP at home | 1.65 | Tyler Anderson COL | 113% | 1.87 |
| — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avoid | SFG | LHP on road | 1.45 | Patrick Corbin ARI | 83% | 1.20 |
| Avoid | OAK | RHP at home | 1.44 | Trevor Bauer CLE | 78% | 1.12 |
| Avoid | MIA | RHP at home | 1.42 | Jacob deGrom NYM | 68% | 0.96 |
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