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Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers—Can’t Match 2014 Class But Amari Cooper, Kevin White Headline Nice Potential

May 13, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Regardless of the first running backs getting drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft this year since 2012, many changes in the game in recent years have driven home the fact the NFL is a passing league.

As more college talent continues to flow towards developing the passing game, and NFL passing stats increase, the wide receiver position is deep for fantasy football players. As Dave opined in his early WR rankings however, 1,000 yard receivers are nice, but the touchdown scorers are the ones ultimately making a difference to your fantasy team.

In 2014, we saw, undoubtedly, the best rookie wide receiver class ever. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin made regular appearances on fantasy highlight reels, while Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry all made names for themselves.

Thus, the overvaluing of rookie wide receivers has begun – which by the way could help you capitalize on trading for an elite veteran receiver that can help you win now. Unfortunately, this year, I do not believe as many rookie wide receivers will make as big of an immediate impact as in 2014.

There is always potential though, and here are my post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers:

1. Amari Cooper, Raiders

Arguably the best wide receiver in the 2015 NFL Draft, Amari Cooper was selected by the Oakland Raiders 4th overall. Oakland has been a wasteland for fantasy players over the past few years, however, they now may have some draftable talent. Quarterback Derek Carr finished 2014, his rookie season, with the seventh-most passing attempts in the NFL. With the departure of James Jones, Cooper should be Carr’s top target from Day One. With many fantasy owners shying away from Oakland players, Cooper could be a steal come draft day, especially in PPR leagues, where a 100-catch season is possible.

2. Kevin White, Bears

There have been dark clouds following the Chicago Bears this offseason. It is obvious the Bears’ defense needs improvement, but new General Manager Ryan Pace decided to make a splash on draft day adding Kevin White to an already strong set of skilled offensive players. The departure of Brandon Marshall leaves no doubt Alshon Jeffery is quarterback Jay Cutler’s top receiving target. The Bears still have a tremendous dual-threat running back in Matt Forte, plus tight end Martellus Bennett (admittedly, rumored to be on the trading block). Each of these players should continue to demand high targets from Cutler. However, White, who offers a great mix of size (6’ 2.5”), speed (4.35 40-yard dash) and strength, should slide into the number two wide receiver position ahead of recently acquired Eddie Royal and add a spark for this offense that struggled in 2014. White could shine early given the attention opposing defenses need to give his new teammates.

3. Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Nelson Agholor may have landed in one of the best situations for a wide receiver with the Philadelphia Eagles and Head Coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Agholor should easily slide into the number two role and give sophomore Jordan Matthews some tough competition for targets. The quarterback situation is a bit murky between oft-injured Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez (and Tim Tebow?). Bradford should win the starting gig. The top receiver in Philadelphia the past two seasons has put up terrific fantasy numbers:

In 2013, DeSean Jackson totaled 82 receptions, 1,332 receiving yards and nine touchdowns
In 2014, Jeremy Maclin totaled 85 receptions, 1,318 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns

Whoever wins the top spot in Philadelphia should have a great season. Come draft day, Agholor’s price will not nearly be as steep as the likes of Cooper and White.

4. Breshad Perriman, Ravens

It is very difficult to rank Breshad Perriman due to criticisms of him being “an unfinished product” and “still raw”. However, the upside and opportunity, in my opinion, outweigh the criticisms. Baltimore is looking for a stand-out receiver and Perriman might just be that guy. Over the past three seasons, the top fantasy scoring wide receiver on the Ravens averaged 64 receptions on 128 targets, 1,016 yards, and six touchdowns. Those are not fantasy WR1 numbers. There isn’t a ton of immediate upside here, but learning from veteran Steve Smith and with a quality quarterback in Joe Flacco, Perriman can develop into that WR1 role and perhaps do more with it than his predecessors. For leagues starting three wide receivers, Perriman is worth grabbing given his opportunity to produce, especially for his draft price.

5. DeVante Parker, Dolphins

NFL Draft expert Mel Kiper said DeVante Parker to the Miami Dolphins was the “best first round pick” of the NFL Draft. Parker offers a nice target for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. However, Parker joins a suddenly crowded Dolphins offense. Tannehill has second year Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and recently signed veteran Greg Jennings at wide receiver, plus tight end Jordan Cameron. On top of those receiver options, running back Lamar Miller proved himself capable last year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and may earn more carries this season. Parker is likely a year away from a truly significant fantasy impact, but with some injury-prone players, Parker may get the opportunity to prove he belongs on the field.

6. Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Tennessee Titans are in the early stages of a complete rebuild. Already young on offense to begin with, after drafting anticipated franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota, running back David Cobb and wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, this team will undoubtedly go through some growing pains. Green-Beckham has been compared to Brandon Marshall. Hopefully that comparison translates to only on-field production as opposed to off-field distractions. He will compete against Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright as the top receiver for the Titans. Though the immediate returns might be small due to some struggles while they develop, stashing Green-Beckham could be worth the wait.

7. Jaelen Strong, Texans

Jaelen Strong will join the Houston Texans who were looking to bulk up their receiving corps. Head coach Bill O’Brien seems to be building an offense that can offer scheme flexibility for the wide receivers. 2014 breakout sensation DeAndre Hopkins will move up into the number one gig with the departure of Andre Johnson. Strong will compete with Cecil Shorts for targets opposite Hopkins. The only negative is the lack of a quality quarterback, with Brian Hoyer currently ahead of Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage on the depth chart. I expect the Texans to draft a quarterback in the near future (2016). Until then, Strong will gain NFL experience and could be a sleeper option come draft day.

8. Devin Funchess, Panthers

Devin Funchess joins 2014 rookie standout Kelvin Benjamin, and not much else at wide receiver, for the Carolina Panthers. Some are calling them the Twin Towers in Carolina due to their big, tall physique. Quarterback Cam Newton loves his high arching throws, so Funchess provides Newton with another red zone target to go up and get the ball. Carolina isn’t known for their passing game, but continuing to add skill at the receiver position could indicate some change in philosophy for the Panthers.

9. Phillip Dorsett, Colts

To the untrained eye, Phillip Dorsett being drafted by the Indianapolis Colts raises many questions since the Colts have so many receiving options already. However, T.Y. Hilton, who is in a contract year, may walk away in free agency next year, so with Dorsett being compared physically to Hilton, consider the pick an insurance policy. With the offseason addition of Andre Johnson, and sophomore Donte Moncrief, Dorsett may not see the field very often this year. However, having one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Andrew Luck significantly helps a young receiver’s stock. Fantasy owners will want a piece of this offense for years to come. Stash Dorsett and be patient.

10. Devin Smith, Jets

Devin Smith is one of the best vertical threats drafted this year. Smith joins a receiving corps in New York of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and tight end Jace Amaro. Unfortunately, besides being a deep threat, Smith does not provide much else, which is not good since quarterbacks Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick already have problems throwing the deep ball. It may be a year or two until Smith can become fantasy relevant.

Best of the Rest

Chris Conley, Chiefs

Talk about a great player but in the wrong situation. Chris Conley has great speed and explosion, but unfortunately his quarterback Alex Smith does not throw the ball down the field. Conley will slide into the number two receiver position after Jeremy Maclin, but that doesn’t mean much if his quarterback cannot/will not throw the ball deep. The wide receivers for the Kansas City Chiefs were abysmal last year, so it is extremely difficult to expect much from Conley even in the WR2 spot.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks are still looking for a player to replace Golden Tate and they are hoping Tyler Lockett will be that guy. Seattle did themselves and quarterback Russell Wilson a huge favor by acquiring elite tight end Jimmy Graham during free agency. With defenses focusing on Graham, speedy receivers like Lockett should find some deep ball opportunities from Wilson.

Top 2015 Rookies Series

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Defensive Players

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 27, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) on the sidelines during the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. The Steelers defeated the Lions 37-27. November 17, 2013; Photographer: Justin Berl/Icon Sportswire

There are many worthy suitors, but can any of them unseat Lord Megatron – Calvin Johnson – as lead dog amongst a talented and deep group of wide receivers for fantasy football? Photo: Icon Sportswire

As the NFL has become more of a passing league, fantasy owners are increasingly tempted to turn the fate of their team’s success over to the wide receiver position with many owners using 1st and 2nd round picks on the position.

That doesn’t seem like a crazy proposition when you review last year’s fantasy rankings at the position and see that six players had more than 200 points (standard scoring, no points-per-reception).

Where that theory falls down is when you review this year’s ADP and take note of the running backs available in Rounds 3 and 4. At that point in the draft, the availability of running backs with strong upside potential is nearly extinct with Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore and Bishop Sankey going in those rounds.

And, if you were unlucky enough to get saddled with the 12th pick in a 12-team league and used your first two picks on wide receivers, you are likely looking at a duo that includes some combination of Jennings, Gerhart, Mathews and Gore.

If that doesn’t sound like a championship winning depth chart at running back, it’s because it’s not, particularly in leagues with no points for receptions. In PPR leagues, you can tend to find some serviceable running backs that are big contributors in their team’s passing game.

While there are those that advocate using both of your first two picks at the wide receiver position, and to a degree punting the RB position, we don’t subscribe to that theory. In fact, the increased production at WR should actually help devalue it.

Last season, 23 wide receivers topped 1,000 receiving yards and 30 scored more than 120 fantasy points. Based on the current ADP, this year’s 30th ranked wide receiver (currently Marques Colston, a perennial 1,000 yard receiver) is being taken with the 2nd pick in the 7th round, 72nd overall. Needless to say but necessary to point out, that is tremendous value.

Tier 1
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
1	Calvin Johnson	DET	9	1.05
2	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	4	1.08
3	Dez Bryant	DAL	11	1.11
4	A.J. Green	CIN	4	2.01
5	Brandon Marshall	CHI	9	2.03
6	Julio Jones	ATL	9	2.05

Last year, there were six 200 point wide receivers and we have six players ranked in our top tier, with Josh Gordon the only top player from last year not in the upper tier. You could certainly make the argument this should be split into two tiers with Johnson and Thomas having the upper tier all to themselves. Having any of these players on your roster should yield fruit but since they are going within the first 17 overall picks, they come at a huge cost. Nonetheless, we won’t argue with acquiring any one of them as long as you come away with a running back in the first two rounds.

Mike’s Take: For positions where I need multiple starters – RB and WR – I like to tag one of each early in the draft. This keeps things flexible later on, to support acquiring players who inexplicably drop in the draft and represent really strong value. This may also explain why I rarely draft a QB or TE in the first round, as I always feel I’m playing catch up at RB or WR. Anyway, for these Tier 1 WR in particular, you pretty much can’t go wrong. All are exceptional talents. If I start RB and get Marshall or Jones in the second round, I’m ecstatic.

Tier 2
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
7	Jordy Nelson	GB	9	2.09
8	Antonio Brown	PIT	12	2.11
9	Vincent Jackson	TB	7	3.10
10	Keenan Allen	SD	10	3.08
11	Michael Floyd	ARI	4	5.03
12	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	9	3.01

The second tier of wide receivers consists of six talented receivers, all supported by solid quarterbacks other than perhaps Jackson. This group is dominated by big receivers who are solid red zone threats with Brown and Allen coming up the rear in that analysis. Of this group, Nelson has the most upside and Floyd is easily checking in as the value option due to his ridiculously low ADP. As with Tier 1, you should feel very comfortable with any of these options.

Mike’s Take: Its clear we really liked Michael Floyd from the get-go this season as we had him ranked high early. His ADP has risen over the summer but he is still undervalued in many drafts. If you can get him as your WR2, that’s great. It is a pretty fine line between these guys and the tier above them. There is just a little more risk with this group preventing them from being considered elite level fantasy stars at the position, but it wouldn’t surprise if any finished as Top 3 WR by season’s end.

Tier 3
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
13	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	4	6.07
14	Victor Cruz	NYG	8	4.03
15	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	4	4.06
16	Randall Cobb	GB	9	3.03
17	Michael Crabtree	SF	8	4.12

In Tier 3, there is a clear delineation between the risk/reward variable from this tier and Tier 2. This tier is dominated by talented wide receivers with either injury or age concerns other than Sanders who is with a new team, albeit with a great quarterback, and perhaps Cruz, who failed to top 1,000 yards last season. Cobb is a major risk at his current ADP. However, since the discrepancy between running back quality from the 3rd to 4th rounds is greater than the discrepancy between wide receivers in those rounds, you can’t argue that any of these wide receivers are being overvalued outside of Cobb.

Mike’s Take: After Wes Welker’s injury, and Sanders’ impressive preseason, it felt like the right move to swap the two of them in the rankings. Should two WR from the same team be ranked so high together as we have Demaryius Thomas and Sanders? Marshall and Jeffery think it is okay. Sanders should be a strong target in your drafts at this point. Don’t take him where we have him ranked. Like Floyd, you can usually draft him later and reap the benefits as a result. I’m not that excited by the other receivers in this tier, except Crabtree is intriguing if not for the competition for catches on the 49ers unless they really open up the offense.

Tier 4
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
18	Pierre Garcon	WAS	10	4.04
19	DeSean Jackson	WAS	10	5.04
20	Roddy White	ATL	9	4.04
21	Kendall Wright	TEN	9	8.01
22	Cordarrelle Patterson	MIN	10	4.09
23	Percy Harvin	SEA	4	5.06

Tier 4 features more talented wide receivers but the risk profiles increase as we move to the higher tiers. The Redskins duo has a quarterback who is prone to putting himself in harm’s way. Wright is a poor option in the red zone, Patterson is largely unproven and Harvin has missed 22 regular season games over the last two years and plays in a run based offense. Given these factors, this tier is all about value. And the value picks here are definitely White and Wright.

Mike’s Take: In a recent draft I got Julio Jones in the early second round, and then was struggling later as Roddy White represented amazing value falling in the draft, but I couldn’t pull the trigger to have two Falcon wideouts on one roster. Wright scored 2 TD last year. That has to go up, right – Wright? Patterson is the ultimate boom-bust pick. We had him higher earlier but reeled it in a bit. I’d be comfortable with drafting him about this spot. Harvin I have little interest in, and if one of the Redskins pair go crazy this season, I guess I’m fine letting someone else be right, than risk drafting either one and being wrong.

Tier 5
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
24	Marques Colston	NO	6	6.12
25	Andre Johnson	HOU	10	4.10
26	Julian Edelman	NE	10	6.07
27	Torrey Smith	BAL	11	6.01
28	Mike Wallace	MIA	5	7.02
29	Wes Welker	DEN	4	4.07

Johnson is aging, moping due to his dismal QB situation, and sliding down boards. I’m still not biting. Colston on the other hand continues to be in a great situation and represents solid value where he is getting drafted. Wallace is as inconsistent as they come and Edelman benefitted last season from injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. Outside of Colston, if there’s a player to grab here, it is Smith who rates as the most likely to emerge as a high end WR2 even if he isn’t a great value with an ADP of 6.03.

Mike’s Take: I’m more bullish on Edelman than Dave, but for +1 PPR leagues only. He should give solid returns there, but falls down significantly in non-PPR leagues. Smith I like okay but he always seems to be over-drafted each year. Colston should give us what we normally expect, which may prove to be a decent return this year as he slides down rankings with fantasy players passing on him for youthful upside.

Tier 6
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
30	Golden Tate	DET	9	7.06
31	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	7	6.04
32	Kelvin Benjamin ®	CAR	12	8.09
33	Sammy Watkins ®	BUF	9	7.08
34	Terrance Williams	DAL	11	7.12

If there is a wide receiver tier to avoid, this is it as there isn’t much value to be had here. It will be no surprise if Tate bombs after signing a lucrative contact with Detroit. Maclin has talent but not a 1,000 yard receiving season to his credit. Watkins is a big risk unless E.J. Manuel starts showing something. Benjamin is a fast riser after an impressive preseason, but now Cam Newton is banged up it could put the brakes on the Benjamin for ROY train. Williams might be the safest of the lot here. We’ll take him with a late 7th round pick, but second year player, new starter and third receiving option (or forth, behind DeMarco Murray) on the Cowboys is a bit of a roll of the dice week to week.

Mike’s Take: This is a, “if they fall far enough, I’ll take them”, category. Jump on Benjamin if he drops to his ADP as that is rising quickly, but more than likely I’m looking at other positions around the time these guys are getting drafted.

Tier 7
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
35	Cecil Shorts	JAC	11	11.12
36	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	10	10.08
37	Anquan Boldin	SF	8	11.02
38	Hakeem Nicks	IND	10	10.02
39	Kenny Stills	NO	6	11.07
40	T.Y. Hilton	IND	10	5.08
41	Eric Decker	NYJ	11	8.09
42	Dwayne Bowe	KC	6	9.08
43	Doug Baldwin	SEA	4	–
44	Mike Evans ®	TB	7	10.05
45	Justin Hunter	TEN	9	10.06

Cecil Shorts in the 11th round? Sign me up. Tier 7 features a plethora of wide receivers capable of big years (as in 1,000 yards and six touchdowns) but who we would all make us mildly surprised if they managed to pull off that feat. That means we need to dig a little deeper here to find the value. As in, who figures to get the most targets, who has competition for those targets, who plays with a solid quarterback and who plays in an offense that should score lots of points. Let’s go with Hopkins and Bowe as the players to nab here. And if I can get Nicks at the top of the 10th round or Hilton with a late pick in the 5th round, Nicks is clearly the value option. The balance of this tier should be avoided based on their ADP.

Mike’s Take: So Dave likes Shorts, Hopkins and Bowe. Think I prefer Nicks, Stills (depending on severity of his quad injury) and Hunter, not necessarily in that order. That kind of describes this tier. Everyone is going to have a different opinion on who they prefer from a group of wideouts at this stage of the draft. We’ve tried to balance risk and reward in differentiating between our Tiers 6 through 10.

Tier 8
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
46	Rueben Randle	NYG	8	9.06
47	Brandin Cooks ®	NO	6	6.09
48	Greg Jennings	MIN	10	13.03
49	Riley Cooper	PHI	7	9.05
50	Tavon Austin	STL	4	9.12
51	Markus Wheaton	PIT	12	12.01
52	Jordan Matthews ®	PHI	7	11.10

This is where the risk-reward starts to tilt heavily to the risk side. Where does opportunity reside in this Tier? Randle has decent talent but struggled with mental lapses last season. However, if he can hold off Odell Beckham, Jr., he has an opportunity to put together a solid season and is far and away the team’s best target in the red zone. In Philadelphia, we expect the impressive rookie Matthews to siphon enough targets away from Riley Cooper to render both of them essentially irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Pittsburgh’s Markus Wheaton boasts impressive credentials but backed up with little production, making him a boom or bust proposition in 2014. He is worth a flier and definitely worth a mid-12th round draft pick.

Tier 9
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
53	Steve Smith	BAL	11	12.07
54	Kenny Britt	STL	4	11.08
55	Reggie Wayne	IND	10	7.09
56	Danny Amendola	NE	10	10.09
57	James Jones	OAK	5	14.03
58	Andrew Hawkins	CLE	4	–
59	Mohamed Sanu	CIN	4	–
60	Jarrett Boykin	GB	9	11.12

Tier 10
Rank	Player	Team	Bye	ADP
61	Jerricho Cotchery	CAR	12	–
62	Rod Streater	OAK	5	–
63	Brian Hartline	MIA	5	14.01
64	Odell Beckham Jr. ®	NYG	8	–
65	Jerrel Jernigan	NYG	8	–
66	Steve Johnson	SF	8	–
67	Marvin Jones	CIN	4	13.08

Once bitten, twice shy. Or is that constantly bitten and should know better but can’t resist? Reports out of St. Louis indicate that Britt is having an outstanding camp but his history of off the field issues and lack of productivity mean you should only grab him very late, which is where he is being drafted. Wayne is ridiculously overvalued at the moment and Amendola is hardly worthy of a selection in the 10th round. Hawkins is an intriguing PPR prospect given the current state of the Browns wide receivers and how Streater’s ADP is so far below James Jones’ is definitely interesting.

Fantasy Football Rankings—Wide Receivers, Updated

May 13, 2010 By Dave 2 Comments

Here’s the final instalment of this round of my updated fantasy football player rankings. With the quarterbacks, running backs and tight ends already covered, this time we look at the wide receiver position.

There are some significant movements in the rankings. In the top 20, we see Larry Fitzgerald now cracking the top five, Brandon Marshall dropping out of the top ten, DeSean Jackson barely holding on to his ranking in the top ten and Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes seeing significant movement due to Holmes’ trade to the Jets.

Lower in the rankings, Wes Welker drops due to injury concerns, Mike Wallace has his fantasy value solidified, Santana Moss moves way up and Jerricho Cotchery and Roy Williams see their fantasy values plummet.

The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:

Brandon Marshall traded to the Miami Dolphins,
Santonio Holmes moving to the Jets,
Donovan McNabb traded to the Washington Redskins,
Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension, and
Jason Campbell traded to the Oakland Raiders.

The only potential major issues to be resolved before training camp are where Terrell Owens lands and if Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson is suspended.

Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.

1. (1) Andre Johnson, HOU

Has topped 1,500 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two seasons. He’s the consensus number one wide receiver for fantasy purposes and I fully expect every ranking to have him here. If not, find a ranking by a sane person.

2. (2) Randy Moss, NE

Wes Welker figures to miss at least a portion of the season so Moss will get plenty of targets and he’s still a threat in the red zone and on deep plays. Unless he pouts, Moss is pretty much guaranteed production.

3. (3) Roddy White, ATL

Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense should improve on a somewhat disappointing 2009 season and White figures to benefit.

4. (4) Miles Austin, DAL

You could make the case that the presence of first round pick Dez White will cut into Austin’s production but Roy Williams figures to lose out from that more than Austin. Bit of a risk because 2009 was a breakout season but he’s obviously Tony Romo’s go to guy in a solid offense.

5. (11) Larry Fitzgerald, ARI

Moves up six spots but still a risk with Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson atop the depth chart at quarterback. Fitz benefits from others moving down.

6. (8) Calvin Johnson, DET

The Lions offense should be more explosive with the addition of running back Jahvid Best and Johnson figures to benefit in the touchdown department. In fact, the Lions offense could surprise in 2010 so Johnson should be considered a bit of a buy low option.

7. (9) Greg Jennings, GB

Dropped to four touchdowns after scoring 21 during the 2007 and 2008 seasons but expect a rebound in 2010.

8. (10) Marques Colston, NO

Mike Bell is gone so maybe the Saints will pass it even more in 2010. Either way, Colston looks like a sure bet to finish in the top ten.

9. (7) Vincent Jackson, SD

If healthy, he’s pretty much guaranteed production. However, monitor his situation since he could be suspended for one or two games due to his off the field troubles.

10. (6) DeSean Jackson, PHI

Plenty of big plays but moves down a bit with the trade of Donovan McNabb. I like Kevin Kolb but expect a slight drop-off from what McNabb would have accomplished this year in Philly.

11. (12) Reggie Wayne, IND

Really slumped during the last seven games of 2009 with 385 yards and two touchdowns which may be a signal that he’s slowing down a bit. The emergence of Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie coupled with the return of Anthony Gonzalez figures to impact his production as well.

12. (5) Brandon Marshall, DEN

Simply put, the Dolphins offense runs the ball too much and Chad Henne is too green to put a Dolphins receiver, even one as talented as Marshall, in the top ten. Sometimes, it’s that simple.

13. (13) Sidney Rice, MIN

Bit of a risk due to his breakout performance in 2009 but one I’m willing to take at this point, especially with expectations of Favre returning in 2010.

14. (16) Anquan Boldin, BAL

If he’s healthy, chalk him up for 8-10 touchdowns and over 1,000 yards. Don’t believe the hype that he produced in Arizona only because he had Fitzgerald opposite him.

15. (15) Hakeem Nicks, NYG

Younger version of Boldin, he had 115 fantasy points on only 74 targets, ranking him fifth in fantasy points per target in the league last season (minimum 45 targets), showing how explosive he is. The Giants are sure to have him more involved in 2010.

16. (17) Chad Ochocinco, CIN

A year older but Antonio Bryant won’t cut into his production and they didn’t add anything in the draft that would reduce his role.

17. (20) Steve Smith, NYG

Two Giants in the top 17. Yikes!

18. (18) Michael Crabtree, SF

No change for Crabtree but less risk and more upside potential with the addition of two offensive lineman being taken in the first round.

19. (22) Steve Smith, CAR

Up three spots but a bit more risk if rookie Jimmy Clausen takes over for Matt Moore midseason.

20. (26) Hines Ward, PIT

Loses with the Roethlisberger suspension but gains targets with Holmes departing for the Jets.

21. (21) Percy Harvin, MIN

More convinced than ever that he’s the real deal. Upside at this point but hard to have him higher in the rankings.

22. (19) Mike Sims-Walker, JAC

Talented player who lacks consistency. However, little risk given he’s clearly the top wide receiver in Jacksonville.

23. (23) Dwayne Bowe, KC

Needs to get it together and stay out of Todd Haley’s doghouse. Next screw up could cost him a 16 game suspension.

24. (24) Donald Driver, GB

Only had 185 yards and no touchdowns during the last four regular season games of 2009 so there are some signs he’s slowing down. However, that risk is offset due to his prominence in Green Bay’s solid offense.

25. (28) Mike Wallace, PIT

I liked him before the Holmes trade and I love him now, even with the Roethlisberger suspension. Wallace has an explosive rookie year with 756 yards and six touchdowns, and certainly made the Steelers’ decision to turf Holmes much easier.

26. (38) Braylon Edwards, NYJ

Why is he up 12 spots even with the Holmes addition? I guess I figure the Jets offense will be more explosive in 2010 and he will benefit in the touchdown department. I still have him projected for under 1,000 yards however.

27. (33) Robert Meachem, NO

Has all the tools and major upside playing in the Saints offense. Look for an increased role for Meachem at the expense of Devery Henderson. Recent toe surgery increases Meachem’s risk.

28. (29) Kenny Britt, TEN

Coming off a nice rookie season with over 700 yards and three touchdowns, but with reports that he was so out of shape that the Titans refused to let him practice, apparently it’s gone to his head. Add a risk factor to this second year player.

29. (34) Malcom Floyd, SD

Another case of a player benefiting from an addition on offense, in this case rookie running back Ryan Mathews. The Chargers love tall, physical receivers and that description fits Floyd.

30. (25) Jeremy Maclin, PHI

I like Maclin and think he will be a star but he moves down with Kolb taking over at quarterback.

31. (32) Devin Aromashodu, CHI

Earl Bennett is a little slow, Johnny Knox is a little small and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz has said Devin Hester is best suited for the slot. Although head coach Love Smith disputed Martz’ version of where Hester will line up, Martz is nothing if not stubborn. Add it all up and Aromashodu is the guy I’m gambling on to benefit from Martz’ presence in Chicago.

32. (31) Steve Breaston, ARI

Moves into the starting line-up with Boldin’s departure but I expect Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet to get more red zone looks which limits his upside.

33. (27) Wes Welker, NE

It now appears that Welker will miss time in 2010 so he’s moving down, but watch for rehab updates and don’t wait too long to grab him, especially in PPR leagues.

34. (36) Mario Manningham, NYG

If Steve Smith is the real deal (more likely than not), then Manningham has limited upside given Hakeem Nicks is all but guaranteed a starting spot. He is definitely worth taking a flier on though.

35. (35) Nate Burleson, DET

36. (51) Santana Moss, WAS

Moves up a whopping 15 spots courtesy of the Redskins acquisition of Donovan McNabb and rookie offensive tackle Trent Williams.

37. (39) Pierre Garcon, IND

Coming off a solid season but he and Peyton Manning were clearly not always on the same page, hence his completion rate of 51% as opposed to Manning’s overall rate of 68.8%. The Colts prefer reliability and Anthony Gonzalez may bring more of it which would limit Garcon’s upside unless he hits the playbook hard.

38. (41) Derrick Mason, BAL

Up a little but there’s no reason to think he will reprise his role from previous seasons because he and Boldin are similar players, only Boldin is bigger, stronger and faster.

39. (14) Santonio Holmes, PIT

Most significant drop in the rankings due to his trade to the Jets and subsequent four-game suspension. Buy low and hope he contributes heavily over 12 games.

40. (43) Anthony Gonzalez, IND

I like his game but Garcon deserves playing time outside and Collie deserves playing time in the slot. However, he’s a solid option for Manning who has caught 71.8% of the passes thrown his way during his first three years in the league.

41. (40) Lee Evans, BUF

No upgrade at quarterback so no upgrade for Evans.

42. (44) Devery Henderson, NO

What you see is what you get. In six years, the highest fantasy points per game he earned is 8.0. There’s no reason for him to surpass that in 2010.

43. (45) Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE

He was productive as a rookie and has some upside but only a little upside given the Browns quarterback situation and anaemic passing attack.

44. (37) T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA

Down seven spots due to rookie Golden Tate’s presence in the line-up.

45. (46) Chris Chambers, KC

46. (NR) Golden Tate, SEA

Our first rookie wide receiver, Tate has a solid opportunity to get playing time in Seattle. If only the quarterback situation were more stable.

47. (42) Earl Bennett, CHI

Definitely not the prototypical wide receiver for a Martz offense given his lack of speed.

48. (49) Chaz Schilens,OAK

On the plus side, the Raiders figure to be better at quarterback with Jason Campbell and he is Oakland’s best receiver. On the minus side, he recently had follow up surgery on his left foot which he broke last August.

49. (50) Early Doucet, ARI

Doucet looks the part but has been inconsistent in Arizona. However, he has ability and could surprise. Doucet represents solid sleeper material.

50. (NR) Dez Bryant, DAL

Cowboys rookie has Pro Bowl potential but giving up his lunch during his first OTA was not encouraging. If he can beat out Roy Williams, he moves way up.

51. (57) Eddie Royal, DEN

What a fantasy roller coaster of an offseason for Royal. Huge fantasy disappointment in 2009 kept him down in the rankings, the Brandon Marshall trade moved him back into the low 30’s and the acquisitions of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker in the draft leave him at 51, up six spots.

52. (30) Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ

Solid player but way down due to the Holmes trade.

53. (52) Kevin Walter, HOU

Could benefit if Owen Daniels is slow to recover from a torn ACL.

54. (47) Antonio Bryant, CIN

Bryant is mercurial, the Bengals don’t throw it a lot and they have a pile of wide receivers.

55. (NR) Demaryius Thomas, DEN

Head coach Josh McDaniels clearly has no use for any player he didn’t bring in so Thomas figures to get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, he might be catching (or trying to catch) passes from Tim Tebow by mid-season.

56. (54) Devin Thomas, WAS

It’s nice that Donovan McNabb is in town but not so nice that the Redskins are loading up on journeyman retread wide receivers. Not a sign of confidence in Thomas and fellow third year wideout Malcolm Kelly.

57. (48) Donnie Avery, STL

Avery here is proof that love is not always blind. Hence, this Rams fan puts the first Rams wide receiver in the rankings way down at 57.

58. (55) Josh Morgan, SF

Look for Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis to get most of the targets in 2010.

59. (NR) Arrelious Benn, TB

Guaranteed a spot on opening day, but also guaranteed to be average with Josh Freeman at quarterback. Check back in 2011.

60. (59) Jacoby Jones, HOU

Texans head coach Gary Kubiak says he loves Jones’ potential. If that’s the case, why did they sign Kevin Walter to a lucrative long-term contract?

61. (70) Malcolm Kelly, WAS

Why is he up nine spots? Good question.

62. (60) Jason Avant, PHI

Has improved in each of his four years in the league but unlikely to supplant Jackson or Maclin.

63. (62) Johnny Knox, CHI

Monitor him to see if he cracks the starting line-up.

64. (63) Bernard Berrian, MIN

I don’t like him, never have and Rice and Harvin are too good not to get the targets.

65. (64) Devin Hester, CHI

Upon further reflection, Hester really didn’t show much last year and now he has to learn the Martz offense.

66. (NR) Greg Camarillo, MIA

Probably the best option on the outside opposite Marshall.

67. (68) Laurent Robinson, STL

Was pretty good for two games last year before getting hurt.

68. (65) James Jones, GB

Looks like he’s solidified his spot ahead of Jordy Nelson.

69. (56) Roy Williams, DAL

Here’s the thing—when you catch 44.2% of the passes thrown your way, your team may use its first round pick on a wide receiver to replace you and then your fantasy value plummets, even if you were considered top 20 fantasy material a year ago.

70. (67) Brandon Gibson, STL

I like his game. Gibson showed some potential as a possession receiver and rookie quarterback Sam Bradford is going to need a security blanket. Maybe he surprises in PPR leagues.

The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:

NR (53) Davone Bess, MIA
NR (58) Mike Thomas, JAC
NR (61) Deion Branch, SEA
NR (66) Nate Washington, TEN
NR (69) Patrick Crayton, DAL

More Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends