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Pre-NFL Draft 2015 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings—Demaryius and Dez Elite Red Zone Options

May 1, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Whether you have number 88 for the Denver Broncos or the Dallas Cowboys - Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant - you are setting your fantasy football team up for success. No question they are elite wide receivers.

Whether you have number 88 for the Denver Broncos or the Dallas Cowboys – Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant – you are setting your fantasy football team up for success. No question they are elite wide receivers.

With the NFL having morphed into a passing league over the past several seasons, the league is now littered with pass catchers capable of reaching the 1,000 yard plateau.

While that may sound like the beginning of an argument to hold off on drafting the position early in your fantasy draft, that isn’t the case. Not all 1,000 yard receivers are created equal, with the most important distinction being those that are solid red zone options for their teams together with the quality of the offense they play in.

For instance, Dez Bryant led the league in receiving touchdowns last year with 16 as the Cowboys main threat in the red zone while Julian Edelman found the end zone just four times despite catching 92 balls for 972 yards.

This year, there are between eight and 10 players that should be considered elite fantasy options at wide receiver, and it would behoove owners to do what they can to ensure they have at least one of them on their rosters.

Here are our initial 2015 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for redraft leagues, before the NFL Draft.

1. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

Over the last three years, Thomas has averaged 1,494 yards and 11.7 touchdowns per season. The unproven Cody Latimer takes over for Wes Welker and the team’s other threat in the red zone, tight end Julius Thomas, is no longer in Denver. Expect more opportunities in the red zone for Thomas in 2015.

2. Dez Bryant, Cowboys

The Cowboys superstar has averaged 1,312 yards and 13.7 touchdowns over the past three years. With DeMarco Murray having left town and Jason Witten another year older, Bryant has to see his target count of 136 from a year ago increase.

3. Antonio Brown, Steelers

Brown isn’t the biggest or the fastest receiver in the league but he just might be the most productive. At least he has been over the last two years, accumulating 239 receptions for 3,197 yards and 21 touchdowns over that span. With the development of Martavis Bryant, his target total could take a bit of a hit next season but that’s a minor red flag.

4. A.J. Green, Bengals

Some nagging injuries and a concussion caused Green to put up career worst numbers in 2014 but a bounce back season seems in order for the smooth striding 26-year old Georgia product. Look for another 1,300 yard, double digit touchdown season, and over 160 targets given the massive talent difference between Green and the next talented receiver on the team.

5. Julio Jones, Falcons

Jones is clearly a wonderful talent coming off a monster season with career highs in receptions (104) and yards (1,593), plus six touchdowns. However, it’s hard to move him any higher considering he has found the end zone just eight times in his last 20 games.

6. Calvin Johnson, Lions

Seriously? Calvin at number six? C’mon, man! Let’s face it. People get old, folks. Johnson didn’t look as explosive last season as he did in previous years. Golden Tate deserves some touches, Eric Ebron should add something at tight end. Add it up and this is where Calvin landed. Sorry.

7. Jordy Nelson, Packers

While Nelson had the finest year of his career last season with 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns, it seems likely that the Packers spread the wealth around a little more in the passing game in 2015 with second-year player Davante Adams getting a bigger piece of the pie.

8. Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

The catch, 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games, the charisma, the swagger. What more can you say? This guy has perennial Pro Bowler written all over him.

9. Alshon Jeffery, Bears

High floor, high ceiling. With Brandon Marshall having been shipped to the Jets, Jeffery is all but guaranteed to reach a new career high in targets in 2015 as the focal point of the Bears passing attack. If quarterback Jay Cutler doesn’t implode, Jeffery should approach 1,300 receiving yards and double digit touchdowns.

10. Randall Cobb, Packers

Buyer beware. I am always more down on Randall Cobb than just about everyone else. And 2015 won’t be any different. From here, the perspective is of a player that probably can’t repeat his 12 touchdown count from a year ago and one unlikely to play 16 games with heavy usage.

11. T.Y. Hilton, Colts

While Hilton is a Smurf, he is also a speed merchant who just might improve upon his 82 reception, 1,345 yard, seven touchdown stat line in the coming season playing opposite Andre Johnson. Johnson’s presence should open things up for Hilton, if only slightly, and a double digit touchdown season could be in order in the Colts high powered offense.

12. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

This dude is the real deal. Despite shoddy quarterback play, he posted 68 receptions for 1,051 yards and 12 touchdowns as a rookie. Evans was clearly the Bucs top pass catching threat and he would be a half dozen spots higher if he were catching passes from a top 10 quarterback.

13. Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos

His production from a year ago (101 receptions, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns) says that he should be ranked much higher than we have him. But who do you move him ahead of? This dude has fantasy bargain written all over him in 2015.

14. Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers

Speaking frankly, there has to be some concern as to Benjamin’s upside. He caught a woeful 50.3% of his targets last season although he did top 1,000 receiving yards with nine touchdowns. And it’s those touchdowns that get him to this spot in the rankings. He is a candidate to move down depending on how the draft unfolds.

15. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

Andre Johnson is gone so Hopkins takes over as the Texans leading wide receiver. Oh wait, that happened last season when he produced 1,210 yards and six touchdowns on just 127 targets. We’d have him higher if not for the quarterback issues we expect him to face in 2015.

16. Jordan Matthews, Eagles

While I doubt Matthews will ever be considered an elite receiver, he is the leading receiving option on a solid Eagles offense with (apparently) a new quarterback in Sam Bradford who loves to throw the short and intermediate stuff. Expect 1,000 yards and between seven and nine touchdowns from Matthews in 2015.

17. DeSean Jackson, Redskins

While Djax wasn’t nearly as productive in his first season in Washington as he was in 2013 with the Eagles, he still managed to approach 1,200 receiving yards with six touchdowns despite the Redskins major issues at quarterback. That production is likely his floor in 2015.

18. Sammy Watkins, Bills

It is doubtful that Watkins will ever produce enough to justify the bounty the Bills paid to get him but he did enough last year to warrant mid-tier WR2 status in 2015. And, yes, there is always the chance he busts out despite the woeful quarterback play we expect in Buffalo.

19. Brandin Cooks, New Orleans

Jimmy Graham left town as did Kenny Stills and Marques Colston isn’t too far off from being sent to the scrap heap. Cooks has plenty of playmaking ability and we expect Saints head coach Sean Payton to force feed him the ball in 2015.

20. Brandon Marshall, Bears

This is the point where the question marks start getting pretty plentiful and where Marshall’s slide ends. We expect Ryan Fitzpatrck to start and feed him plenty of targets this season.

21. Keenan Allen, Chargers

While Allen was a bit of a bust last season, we expect him to approach his 1,046 yard, eight touchdown production as a rookie. Antonio Gates is a year older, Eddie Royal is no longer a Charger and hopefully Allen will remain injury free. He should rate as a bargain on draft day.

22. Golden Tate, Lions

Tate was a revelation during his first year in Detroit, reaching career highs in receptions with 99 and yards with 1,331. However, he was aided by injuries to Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush along with the slow development of tight end Eric Ebron. It’s a rock solid bet that he won’t approach the 143 targets he had last season unless Johnson is injured once again in 2015.

23. Julian Edelman, Patriots

If the last two years are the sample size we’re using, then Edelman should be good for close to 100 receptions and 1,000 yards and four to six touchdowns next season. Far more valuable in PPR, Edelman nonetheless rates as a mid to upper tier WR3 in standard scoring 12 team leagues.

24. Andre Johnson, Colts

Johnson departs the Texans for greener pastures in Indianapolis catching passes from Andrew Luck. Ignoring injury shortened seasons, Johnson last year failed to top 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his rookie season. He would rank a lot lower if not for his touchdown potential as a Colt. This is a player in decline who will turn 34 years of age before opening day.

25. Jeremy Maclin, Chiefs

It’s hard to put Maclin this low coming off his career year last season with 86 receptions for 1,329 yards and 10 touchdowns (all career highs). Yes, folks, the Alex Smith factor is that strong.

26. Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Despite not seeing the field for the first six games of the season, Bryant still managed to finish his rookie season with 26 receptions for 549 yards and eight touchdowns. This guy is a play making machine and should easily shove Markus Wheaton aside as a starter in 2015. He has big upside but is bound to be an inconsistent fantasy option next season.

27. Victor Cruz, Giants

A torn patellar tendon ended his season early last year and Cruz will return to the Giants as the number two option behind Odell Beckham Jr. He should come as a bargain in this year’s drafts.

28. Mike Wallace, Vikings

With Adrian Peterson setting the table in the play option game, maybe Wallace puts together a big season in 2015. Then again, maybe not.

29. Allen Robinson, Jaguars

Without question Robinson is the type of player teams will never be satisfied with as their leading wide receiver. However, he was still solid as a rookie in a pathetic Jaguars offense last season, catching 48 passes for 548 yards and a pair of scores in 10 games before suffering a season-ending broken foot.

30. Michael Floyd, Cardinals

Floyd’s talent level gets him the final spot in the rankings because his production last year sure wasn’t the reason. If the light comes on, look out.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers

May 22, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers: Aggies wide receiver Mike Evans (13) reacts to reception during a game in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. November 23, 2013; Photographer: John Korduner/Icon SMI

At 6’5”, Evans will be a red zone nightmare and it will give him the opportunity to reach double digit touchdowns right out of the gate. November 23, 2013; Photographer: John Korduner/Icon SMI

Pro scouts touted the 2014 NFL Draft as the draft of the Wide Receiver, showcasing the deepest talent at the position in years. For fantasy football purposes, it used to be the case we never really expected very much from receivers in their rookie years. When Anquan Boldin or Marques Colston produced big fantasy points as NFL rookies, it was a surprise.

+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+-------+
| Name            | Year | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts  |
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+-------+
| Anquan Boldin   | 2003 | 101 | 1377 |    8 | 189.7 |
| Michael Clayton | 2004 |  80 | 1193 |    7 | 164.3 |
| Mike Williams   | 2010 |  64 |  955 |   11 | 161.5 |
| A.J. Green      | 2011 |  65 | 1057 |    7 | 153.0 |
| Keenan Allen    | 2013 |  71 | 1046 |    8 | 152.6 |
| Marques Colston | 2006 |  70 | 1038 |    8 | 151.8 |
| Julio Jones     | 2011 |  54 |  959 |    8 | 149.5 |
| Lee Evans       | 2004 |  48 |  843 |    9 | 146.8 |
| Eddie Royal     | 2008 |  91 |  980 |    5 | 138.9 |
| T.Y. Hilton     | 2012 |  50 |  861 |    7 | 131.0 |
+-----------------+------+-----+------+------+-------+
 Top 10 fantasy performances by wide receivers in 
 their rookie season since 2000 (rushing included, 
 special teams excluded from fantasy points).

More recently however, a combination of rookies being more prepared entering the NFL, coaches throwing them into the fire, and the NFL becoming a pass happy league, today’s rookies have a greater opportunity to put up Boldin or Colston-like first year numbers. Last year, Keenan Allen posted a 71-1,046-8 stat line, good for the fifth best fantasy point output by a rookie WR since 2000, narrowly missing out surpassing A.J. Green‘s points from 2011 (Allen topped Green in PPR scoring).

Now we more or less expect at least one rookie WR to make a significant fantasy impact. The difficulty is figuring out the player most likely to do it. Here are my post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers.

1. Mike Evans, TB

Mike Evans landed into one of the best situations a rookie could land when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers drafted him with the 7th overall pick. Evans will play opposite Vincent Jackson, allowing him to go up against their opponent’s number two defensive back. At 6’5”, Evans will be a red zone nightmare and it will give him the opportunity to reach double digit touchdowns right out of the gate.

2. Brandin Cooks, NO

New Orleans Saints traded up to grab Brandin Cooks at the 20th overall pick. Cooks is now on a team that was second in the league in receiving touchdowns, yards, and receptions. It’s safe to say that his chances for producing right away are very high. Cooks provides speed and elusiveness, but can be considered a volume receiver as well, which is backed up by his 226 catches at Oregon State. The Saints lost Darren Sproles and Lance Moore this offseason. Cooks should be given ample opportunity to help make up for that lost production.

3. Sammy Watkins, BUF

As the top wide receiver taken in the 2014 NFL Draft, 4th overall by the Buffalo Bills, Sammy Watkins will slide into the starting lineup right away without any competition. Watkins caught a bunch of passes behind the line of scrimmage at Clemson. He isn’t restricted to a short game though, as his speed and precise route running make him a dangerous downfield option. Watkins can be a jack-of-all trades receiver, but his success will hinge greatly on the development of second year quarterback E.J. Manuel. Manuel was a mixed bag of good and bad play last season, amidst sitting out injured more than once. It is difficult to be bullish on Manuel at this point, resulting in a more conservative ranking of Watkins than most fantasy pundits.

4. Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

Odell Beckham Jr. was considered one of the most surprising picks of the draft when he was taken 12th overall by the New York Giants. This offseason, the Giants lost veteran wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, but weren’t in as desperate need of a wide receiver (Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Jerrel Jernigan and Mario Manningham) as some teams. They saw value and the potential for instant production with Beckham. While many expected Randle to make a bigger contribution to this offense this year, drafting Beckham might indicate the Giants don’t have much faith in Randle. Even though Beckham is under 6 feet tall, he possesses the speed (4.43 40-yard dash) and vertical (38.5 inches) to make noise at the pro-level.

5. Cody Latimer, DEN

Denver Broncos said goodbye to WR Eric Decker this offseason. Even though the Broncos filled that hole signing free agent Emmanuel Sanders, it didn’t prevent them from also drafting Cody Latimer, primarily with a longer term outlook. Peyton Manning loves to spread the ball around, and in doing so he helped four different receivers (including TE Julius Thomas) make a significant fantasy impact last season. Recall there were times he even made Andre Caldwell look like a Pro Bowler. Latimer will likely start fourth on the wide receiver depth chart, but given his talent (4.39 40-yard dash plus 39 inch vertical) and situation, all it would take is one injury to a veteran in front of him or poor showing by Sanders and Latimer becomes a very valuable fantasy producer as early as this season.

6. Jordan Matthews, PHI

When it comes to fantasy production, there may not be a better offense to be a part of than the Philadelphia Eagles. With the departure of DeSean Jackson, Matthews figures to step into the primary slot role as early as Week 1. Expect Chip Kelly to have a field day utilizing Matthews’ skills. We saw what this offense did in its first year. Now, with arguably the best dual threat running back in LeSean McCoy, the addition of Darren Sproles from the New Orleans Saints, return of Jeremy Maclin and development of Zach Ertz, Matthews will be an afterthought for opposing defenders, which could lead to some big weeks.

7. Marqise Lee, JAC

Jacksonville Jaguars certainly went out of their way to provide Blake Bortles with several game changing playmakers. A lot of teams were hesitant to pull the trigger on Marqise Lee because his 2013 college campaign was average and his performance at the NFL Combine was subpar. Listening to his interviews, this guy sounds determined to prove that he is more than worth the early second round draft pick the Jaguars spent on him. Given the shallow depth chart in Jacksonville, Lee should have an opportunity to contribute immediately.

8. Kelvin Benjamin, CAR

When a team’s leading receivers are Jerricho Cotchery, Tiquan Underwood and Jason Avant, one can’t help but imagine this a great situation for a rookie to land, if for no other reason than the possibility for 70+ receptions because those other guys won’t do it. Benjamin will step into a significant role in the Carolina Panthers’ offense from day one. Although they are not a passing team, Cam Newton could still lock on to Benjamin which could make him one of the best rookie wide receivers this year.

9. Davante Adams, GB

Green Bay Packers are known for producing receiving talent from within their organization. Over the years, we’ve seen many wide receivers develop thanks in large part to consistent top QB play spanning Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Davante Adams was a surprise pick for the Packers considering they need a lot of defensive help, but when Adams was still on the board in the late second round, the Packers saw an opportunity to develop another young wide receiver. He might not be a very productive out of the gate, but Randall Cobb missed 10 games last season and Jarrett Boykin lacks pedigree as an undrafted free agent, indicating the opportunity for Adams might be closer than many think.

10. Jarvis Landry, MIA

Jarvis Landry might not possess any special traits, but he is one of the better fits in the draft taken 63rd overall by the Miami Dolphins. When Landry proves himself above the mediocre Dolphins wide receivers found below Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline on the depth chart, he will instantly become a favorite target for QB Ryan Tannehill on third downs because of his reliable hands and toughness. He’s also one who’s not afraid to work the middle of the field. Landry will certainly be most attractive in PPR formats.

More Guys To Monitor:

Martavis Bryant, PIT
Martavis Bryant has the size and skill set to fill the red zone void that was lost with the departure of Jerricho Cotchery, who was the teams primary red zone target in 2013, catching 10 touchdowns on only 46 receptions.

Paul Richardson, SEA
Paul Richardson possesses elite speed to blow past any defense. With opposing defenses selling out to stop the run and contain Percy Harvin, Russell Wilson should be able to pick his spots for some long ball success to Richardson.

Donte Moncrief, IND
Donte Moncrief goes to an Indianapolis Colts team with a pretty full depth chart at wide receiver, but has a great opportunity to learn from veteran Reggie Wayne.

Also see: Top 5 Rookie QB | Top 10 Rookie RB | Top 5 Rookie TE | Top 10 Rookie IDP
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Spreadsheet to Help Create Your Own Fantasy Football Projections

April 25, 2014 By Draft Buddy 2 Comments

For those fantasy football prognosticators in the house, the ones who dive right into the detail and do their own player projections each year – or are thinking about doing it – I have something for you. I created an Excel spreadsheet that should help create, edit and organize your projections.

It is no Draft Buddy, but still a pretty neat little tool in my humble opinion. At a minimum, it includes NFL player stats for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends for each of the past five years, 2009-2013. Simply for review purposes it has a lot of utility right there.

Lets start with a download and then I will walk you through it.

» Download Here

You do need Microsoft Excel, and I created it in “newer” versions of Excel (not that new, since Excel 2007), which is why it has the .xlsm extension on it. It does include macros, so you need to enable macros on opening. If you have Mac Excel 2008, there is no macro support, so the macros will not work.

When you open it, you’ll see six tabs as follows:

  1. Projections Input Tab
  2. playerProj
  3. QB
  4. RB
  5. WR
  6. TE

 
Projections Input Tab

screenshot1

screenshot2

This tab has two parts really. The bottom section which includes the yellow boxes is where you input your projections. Only change the yellow highlighted boxes to avoid changing a formula. To change teams, select the red highlighted cell in the upper-right and a drop-down should appear where you can switch the team. It should then automatically update the players based on our depth charts.

Below the input section there are two buttons: (1) Clear Input Tab Projections and (2) Copy Projections To Position Tabs. I hope those are self-explanatory, but the first one basically just clears your work space to start from nil values. The second copies your projections to the subsequent tabs, and then automatically sorts the QB, RB, WR and TE tabs by fantasy points from highest to lowest, so you can see how your projections by team work out on a by position basis.

Now, the upper part of this tab. This is part of the beauty of this spreadsheet to help you create reasonable projections. Scroll all the way to the top. Here are the historical stats for the team selected, showing stats by player and totals for each of the past five seasons. There are also some summary calculations and the sum of your projections down below to check if you are projecting in a reasonable range.

The buttons across the top are to show or hide each of the positions, to keep this section clean and focussed. It may not show all players as I had to make it even across all teams, but it should by fairly deep and I believe the team totals are accurate.

This may involve some up and down scrolling but you could perhaps even split the window between top and bottom if you find that helpful.

 
playerProj Tab

This tab is really an in-between tab to store your projections from the input tab, and feed the projections to the positions tabs. You really should not make any changes to this tab, but I left it open so you can quickly review your projections by team without having to pull them in one at a time back on the input tab, if desired.

 
QB, RB, WR, TE Tabs

screenshot3

screenshot4

Similarly, I do not recommend making any changes to this tab. It is filled with formulas that will break the spreadsheet if you mess with them. However, this is the view we ultimately want to see, which is projections by position, and fantasy points calculated, sorted from highest to lowest.

The macros should do this sorting for you automatically each time you click the Copy Projections to Position Tabs button back on the original input tab. When you first open the spreadsheet you will see there are only a few players on these tabs because I only input some test projections for a few teams, the Cardinals, Bills and Panthers.

 
I hope find this spreadsheet incredibly helpful in your pursuit of creating your own player projections to dominate your fantasy football league this season. Post comments if you have any questions or feedback.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

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