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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Monday August 6

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Seattle Mariners are facing a LHP on road (Martin Perez TEX who has faced 220 batters). On FanDuel the Mariners are currently putting up 2.17 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP on road and Martin Perez is currently allowing 139% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.01 (2.17 x 139%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Mariners LHP on road Martin Perez TEX 220 2.17 x 139% 3.01 +0.84 1.66 x 139% 2.32 +0.65
Cardinals LHP on road Wei-Yin Chen MIA 367 2.43 x 121% 2.95 +0.52 1.83 x 119% 2.18 +0.35
Cubs RHP on road Jakob Junis KCR 509 2.25 x 116% 2.61 +0.36 1.71 x 116% 1.98 +0.27
Rangers LHP at home Wade LeBlanc SEA 439 2.56 x 100% 2.55 +0.00 1.92 x 101% 1.95 +0.03
Yankees RHP on road Dylan Covey CHW 331 2.15 x 117% 2.52 +0.37 1.63 x 115% 1.87 +0.24
White Sox RHP at home Lance Lynn NYY 486 2.19 x 107% 2.35 +0.16 1.68 x 106% 1.78 +0.10
Mets RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 346 1.78 x 125% 2.23 +0.45 1.37 x 124% 1.70 +0.33
Indians RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 560 2.53 x 88% 2.23 -0.30 1.90 x 88% 1.68 -0.22
Rockies RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 288 2.37 x 91% 2.15 -0.21 1.80 x 93% 1.67 -0.13
Phillies RHP on road Zack Godley ARI 549 2.03 x 102% 2.07 +0.04 1.55 x 101% 1.56 +0.01
Royals LHP at home Cole Hamels CHC 523 1.80 x 113% 2.03 +0.23 1.41 x 112% 1.58 +0.16
Diamondbacks RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 492 2.11 x 98% 2.07 -0.05 1.60 x 97% 1.55 -0.05
Astros RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 273 2.40 x 84% 2.01 -0.39 1.80 x 85% 1.54 -0.27
Tigers RHP on road Nick Tropeano LAA 300 1.67 x 119% 1.99 +0.32 1.30 x 118% 1.53 +0.23
Marlins RHP at home Luke Weaver STL 504 1.86 x 104% 1.94 +0.08 1.44 x 105% 1.51 +0.07
Pirates LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 556 2.12 x 86% 1.83 -0.29 1.62 x 88% 1.42 -0.19
Giants RHP at home Charlie Morton HOU 517 2.17 x 83% 1.79 -0.38 1.65 x 83% 1.37 -0.28
Reds RHP on road Noah Syndergaard NYM 342 2.06 x 84% 1.73 -0.33 1.58 x 87% 1.38 -0.20
Twins RHP on road Trevor Bauer CLE 635 2.09 x 75% 1.56 -0.53 1.58 x 76% 1.20 -0.39
Angels LHP at home Matt Boyd DET 487 1.63 x 93% 1.52 -0.11 1.26 x 92% 1.16 -0.10

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Sunday August 5

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Chicago Cubs are facing a LHP at home (Clayton Richard SDP who has faced 586 batters). On FanDuel the Cubs are currently putting up 2.54 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Clayton Richard is currently allowing 107% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.54 x 107%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.119 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Cubs LHP at home Clayton Richard SDP 586 2.54 x 107% 2.70 +0.17 1.91 x 105% 2.00 +0.10
Royals RHP on road Ervin Santana MIN 47 1.96 x 134% 2.63 +0.67 1.51 x 134% 2.03 +0.52
Phillies LHP at home Wei-Yin Chen MIA 367 2.20 x 121% 2.67 +0.46 1.65 x 119% 1.96 +0.32
Nationals RHP at home Luis Castillo CIN 492 2.31 x 111% 2.57 +0.25 1.75 x 110% 1.93 +0.18
Angels RHP on road Shane Bieber CLE 222 2.23 x 111% 2.47 +0.24 1.70 x 113% 1.91 +0.21
Red Sox RHP at home Masahiro Tanaka NYY 393 2.55 x 97% 2.48 -0.07 1.93 x 97% 1.88 -0.06
Yankees LHP on road David Price BOS 507 2.39 x 101% 2.41 +0.01 1.82 x 101% 1.84 +0.02
Braves TBD on road TBD/Bullpen NYM – 2.38 x 100% 2.38 +0.00 1.82 x 100% 1.82 +0.00
Brewers RHP at home Jon Gray COL 491 2.21 x 107% 2.35 +0.15 1.68 x 106% 1.78 +0.10
Orioles LHP on road Martin Perez TEX 220 1.63 x 139% 2.25 +0.63 1.28 x 139% 1.78 +0.50
Rangers RHP at home Yefry Ramirez BAL 143 2.27 x 102% 2.32 +0.05 1.70 x 101% 1.72 +0.01
Mariners RHP at home Sam Gaviglio TOR 320 2.01 x 111% 2.24 +0.23 1.56 x 111% 1.73 +0.17
Blue Jays RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 563 2.14 x 104% 2.23 +0.09 1.62 x 106% 1.72 +0.09
Indians LHP at home Tyler Skaggs LAA 472 2.44 x 90% 2.19 -0.25 1.85 x 91% 1.68 -0.16
Diamondbacks LHP at home Derek Holland SFG 475 2.14 x 101% 2.17 +0.03 1.64 x 101% 1.65 +0.01
Rays RHP at home James Shields CHW 615 2.04 x 106% 2.17 +0.13 1.57 x 104% 1.63 +0.07
Athletics RHP at home Francisco Liriano DET 365 2.00 x 106% 2.13 +0.13 1.52 x 105% 1.59 +0.07
Reds RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 551 2.10 x 100% 2.10 +0.00 1.60 x 100% 1.61 +0.00
Astros RHP on road Walker Buehler LAD 278 2.40 x 87% 2.09 -0.31 1.81 x 88% 1.59 -0.22
Giants LHP on road Robbie Ray ARI 285 1.84 x 113% 2.09 +0.24 1.42 x 111% 1.58 +0.15
Cardinals RHP on road Trevor Williams PIT 465 2.12 x 97% 2.05 -0.07 1.61 x 96% 1.55 -0.06
White Sox TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.00 x 100% 2.00 +0.00 1.54 x 100% 1.54 +0.00
Twins LHP at home Danny Duffy KCR 586 1.88 x 104% 1.95 +0.07 1.45 x 104% 1.51 +0.06
Pirates RHP at home Jack Flaherty STL 373 2.15 x 91% 1.95 -0.20 1.64 x 90% 1.48 -0.16
Mets RHP at home Julio Teheran ATL 484 1.79 x 107% 1.92 +0.13 1.37 x 105% 1.44 +0.06
Dodgers RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 554 2.35 x 76% 1.79 -0.56 1.78 x 76% 1.35 -0.43
Padres LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 526 1.86 x 94% 1.74 -0.12 1.44 x 94% 1.35 -0.08
Tigers RHP on road Trevor Cahill OAK 274 1.72 x 89% 1.52 -0.20 1.33 x 89% 1.18 -0.15
Marlins RHP on road Aaron Nola PHI 552 1.93 x 68% 1.31 -0.63 1.50 x 69% 1.04 -0.46
Rockies LHP on road Wade Miley MIL 119 2.08 x 61% 1.27 -0.81 1.59 x 62% 0.99 -0.60

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Monday July 30

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a LHP at home (Martin Perez TEX who has faced 196 batters). On FanDuel the Diamondbacks are currently putting up 2.18 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Martin Perez is currently allowing 140% more PPA than the MLB average (2.115 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.05 (2.18 x 140%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.115 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.613
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Diamondbacks LHP at home Martin Perez TEX 196 2.18 x 140% 3.05 +0.87 1.66 x 141% 2.34 +0.68
Twins RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 195 2.34 x 113% 2.65 +0.31 1.77 x 116% 2.05 +0.28
Braves LHP at home Wei-Yin Chen MIA 345 2.03 x 118% 2.39 +0.36 1.55 x 116% 1.80 +0.25
Indians RHP on road Ervin Santana MIN 23 2.07 x 109% 2.26 +0.19 1.58 x 111% 1.74 +0.17
Padres LHP at home Derek Holland SFG 453 2.24 x 101% 2.28 +0.03 1.70 x 101% 1.71 +0.02
Astros LHP on road James Paxton SEA 481 2.43 x 91% 2.22 -0.21 1.84 x 92% 1.69 -0.15
Athletics RHP at home Marco Estrada TOR 377 1.93 x 115% 2.22 +0.29 1.47 x 114% 1.68 +0.21
Giants LHP on road Eric Lauer SDP 376 1.77 x 119% 2.11 +0.34 1.37 x 120% 1.64 +0.27
Blue Jays RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 142 2.18 x 97% 2.10 -0.07 1.65 x 96% 1.58 -0.07
Marlins RHP on road Julio Teheran ATL 461 1.94 x 107% 2.08 +0.14 1.50 x 104% 1.57 +0.07
Rangers LHP on road Robbie Ray ARI 263 1.77 x 113% 2.01 +0.23 1.37 x 111% 1.53 +0.16
Brewers RHP on road Kenta Maeda LAD 391 2.07 x 90% 1.87 -0.21 1.60 x 90% 1.44 -0.16
Phillies LHP on road David Price BOS 475 1.81 x 103% 1.86 +0.06 1.38 x 103% 1.43 +0.04
Dodgers RHP at home Freddy Peralta MIL 172 2.22 x 86% 1.91 -0.31 1.69 x 82% 1.38 -0.31
Cardinals LHP at home Tyler Anderson COL 494 1.88 x 96% 1.81 -0.07 1.44 x 96% 1.39 -0.05
Rockies RHP on road Carlos Martinez STL 426 2.06 x 88% 1.81 -0.25 1.56 x 87% 1.36 -0.20
Red Sox RHP at home Aaron Nola PHI 523 2.55 x 69% 1.76 -0.80 1.94 x 70% 1.36 -0.58
Mariners RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 527 2.05 x 77% 1.58 -0.47 1.58 x 77% 1.22 -0.36