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Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, NFC East

June 23, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Sam Bradford is set up for the best season of his career. That is, if he can stay healthy, something he had trouble with playing for the St. Louis Rams.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Despite attempting 100 fewer passes in 2014 compared to 2013, Tony Romo increased his completion percentage by 6%, nearly matched his yardage, tossed three more touchdowns and one less interception. Less is more! Problem is they lost that nearly 450-touch guy, DeMarco something. We’re looking at projections much more in line with 2013.
  • Darren McFadden? Joseph Randle? A player to be named later? Pick your poison, but we do think it is McFadden to the extent he stays healthy. Yep, a pretty big IF there, but a higher profile veteran with the Arkansas connection is likely to be given the primo opportunity. The offensive line will provide a solid level of fantasy success if one does emerge as earning the bulk of the carries, either for the season or for a span of weeks in-season.
  • Romo’s pass attempts are up but numbers are similar for the receivers. In fact, the rush-pass mix is not that different from last season, with more plays overall. Think we need to ratchet down the runners a little, perhaps bump of Terrance Williams. Dez Bryant makes us slightly nervous with the contract talk impasse and talk of a holdout, but for now, have to project him as the stud he is.

New York Giants

  • A lot of talk about Eli Manning being more comfortable in the second year of Ben McAdoo’s offense and how he is going to light it up. I’m buying it. Odell Beckham Jr. from Week 1 and adding Shane Vereen helps quite a bit, too, even with Victor Cruz sidelined.
  • When he played, Rashad Jennings was decent for fantasy last season in his first season with the Giants. A sub-4.0 yards per carry and an injury history doesn’t put fantasy owners at ease he is long for the job though. Good thing he doesn’t have much competition for carries, but the Giants should use Vereen a fair bit, who likely feels he was underused in New England.
  • Beckham a sell high or setting up to be a perennial Top 5 WR? His hamstrings appear they will dictate the best answer. Our initial projections have him 7th at WR, 3-4 spots below his current ADP.
  • More was expected of Rueben Randle to this point of his career, and last year was a prime opportunity for him with Beckham out until Week 5, and Cruz out after Week 6. He disappointed. Continuing good opportunity for him starting this season. I’d draft him as a late pick with upside, but not holding out a ton of hope.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Who is going to quarterback this crew? Its Sam Bradford until we are certain he can’t. And if Bradford can stay in for 16 games, he’s in line for the best season of his career. Mark Sanchez awaits in the wings.
  • 449 touches for DeMarco Murray last season, excluding the playoffs, he can still get a heavy workload in this offense, but not that crazy. Not with Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles needing to get their touches. But that is okay, as last season was Murray’s first playing 16 games. We have him at 300 carries, 25 receptions, still worthy of a high pick.
  • We have Mathews at half the carries of Murray, and Sproles less than half of that, but Sproles dominates the pass targets. All three get drafted but Mathews and Sproles only become reliable fantasy starters if Murray misses time, or the Eagles have a game where they run roughshod over their opponent.
  • By all accounts Jordan Matthews lived up to his rookie draft hype last year with a solid season, but whether he can improve on those numbers will be challenged by the new rookie addition, Nelson Agholor. While I may pass on drafting Matthews, I have a hard time projecting him behind Agholor until we see what positions Chip Kelly settles on for each come training camp.
  • We have modest improvements for Zach Ertz in this third season. There is still upside available there if he can become a red zone threat.

Washington Redskins

  • In a surprising bit of news, head coach Jay Gruden had numerous good things to say about Robert Griffin III. It is still somewhat baffling how fast RG3 fell from rookie sensation to subpar fantasy asset. Injury and work ethic were the problems. Injury must be over by now. Work ethic? Maybe he’s getting it, keeping a lower profile, and maybe it is time to consider buying low.
  • Alfred Morris keeps on chugging along. A classic underrated RB in fantasy circles because of his lack of catches, so short of a monster 1,600-12 line (which he surpassed in 2012), he won’t earn a 1st round grade, but don’t turn your nose up at 1,100-8 in the thick of the RBBC era. Rookie Matt Jones backs him up, but not expecting Jones to unseat Morris.
  • Griffin has good receivers. Makes you think more about RG3 being a value pick, doesn’t it? I’ve traditionally considered DeSean Jackon an every other year player, but he has now strung together two consecutive good seasons. Pierre Garcon needs more targets, especially with the 11.1 yards per catch he had last season.
  • A better third receiver and/or a healthy Jordan Reed would go a long way to helping this offense. Now I’ve come full circle. RG3 has good starting receivers, but not enough pass catching skill around him to be better than a bye week filler, unless he really ramps up the rushing yards again. Not sure the Redskins will push for that.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Washington Redskins Team Report

June 11, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Washington Redskins WR Pierre Garcon dropped from a 113-1,346-5 stat line in 2013 to 68-752-3 in 2014. Huge drop. The talent is there, but will his coach feed him and can his QB get his act together?

Washington Redskins WR Pierre Garcon dropped from a 113-1,346-5 stat line in 2013 to 68-752-3 in 2014. Huge drop. The talent is there, but will his coach feed him and can his QB get his act together?

QB Robert Griffin III

During his three-year career, RGIII has had one superlative season and been a bust in the other two. In fact, his trajectory is headed down in a major way courtesy of his atrocious campaign of a year ago when he was the team’s quarterback for the majority of the snaps in just seven games, earning a demotion from head coach Jay Gruden. Did we mention he was benched for journeyman Colt McCoy? A McCoy injury resulted in Griffin being reinserted into the starting line-up but he failed to show much improvement over the season’s final three games. Injuries have robbed RGIII of his dynamic playmaking ability rushing the football and he has major work to do when it comes to reading defenses and making sound decisions in the pocket. And reading between the lines, it does not appear that Gruden is sold on his signal caller, making another mid-season benching a definite possibility. Add it all up and RGIII is a slot pull for 2015 but after two shoddy seasons, at least you can snag him for a fraction of his value from previous years.

RB Alfred Morris

The line on Morris entering the 2014 season was that he would see a decline in his usage due to head coach Jay Gruden’s preference for using a committee approach at the running back position. However, Morris only saw his touches decrease by three to 282 allowing him to once again top 1,200 total yards while making his way to the end zone eight times. He also saw his role as a pass catcher out of the backfield increase, reaching career highs with 17 receptions for 155 yards. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, Morris will once again lead the Redskins rushing attack although the team protected itself against Morris not re-signing by selecting Matt Jones in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. His presence clouds Morris’ fantasy value as does uncertainty regarding how effective the team’s offense will be. With the Washington offense operating at its peak in 2011, Morris hit pay dirt 13 times but he has just 15 touchdowns over the past two years as the team has struggled in that area. Since we expect Morris to approach 280 touches once again this season and for the offense to rank middle of the pack, he projects as a solid, high end RB2 with decent upside.

RB Matt Jones

With Alfred Morris entering the final year of his rookie contract, the Redskins used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft to add depth to the position, acquiring Florida’s Matt Jones. At 6’2″ and 231 pounds, Jones has the size required to handle heavy touches as a starter but his measurables and collegiate production don’t indicate that he has major upside as a pro. However, that was the same narrative that followed Morris to the pros when he left Florida Atlantic in 2012. Look for Jones to unseat Silas Redd and Chris Thompson to earn the backup and pass catching role behind Morris this season. While Jones doesn’t rate as a high caliber handcuff due to Morris’ ability to handle a heavy workload, he is a mid-tier dynasty prospect based on Morris’ contract situation.

WR DeSean Jackson

There are certain players that you end up holding your nose as you add them to your fantasy roster and Djax fits squarely into that group. By season’s end, he should net out at about 60 receptions for 1,000 yards and 7-8 touchdowns. However, it’s the inconsistency that always frustrates his owners and last season was no different as he accumulated 130.1 of his 152.9 (or 85%) fantasy points in eight of his 15 games. In the other seven games, he averaged 3.3 PPG. If you can live with the inconsistency, consider Djax as a mid-tier WR2.

WR Pierre Garcon

As the top dog in the Redskins passing attack in 2013, Garcon posted a career year with 113 receptions for 1,346 yards and five touchdowns. However, the addition of DeSean Jackson prior to the 2014 season put a huge dent in his production as he played second fiddle to Djax, watching his target count plummet from 184 to just 105 as he caught 68 passes for 752 yards and three touchdowns. In 2015, the Redskins have vowed to give him a larger role in the team’s passing attack but we’re not buying that will result in a return to his glory days. Barring a Djax injury, Garcon’s upside is likely 1,000 yards and 5-6 touchdowns. Thought of as a big play machine, he has topped six touchdowns just twice during his seven year career. He rates as a somewhat intriguing WR4.

WR Andre Roberts

Signed to a lucrative four year, $16-million contract after producing four reasonably solid years in Arizona, Roberts was something of a disappointment during his first year in Washington. Playing almost exclusively out of the slot, Roberts caught just 36 of his 73 targets for 453 yards and a pair of touchdowns, easily his worst production since his rookie season in 2010. His usage went down as the season progressed with Roberts seeing just 22 targets over the final seven games of the season. He also offered little as a punt and kick returner. In addition, new general manager Scott McCloughan used a 4th round pick on Jamison Crowder, a diminutive slot receiver who doubles as a punt returner. With a guaranteed salary of $2.75-million, Roberts’ roster spot is all but guaranteed. Unfortunately for him, his playing time isn’t.

WR Jamison Crowder

Drafted in the 4th round of this year’s rookie draft, Crowder will battle fellow wide receiver Andre Roberts for playing time as a slot receiver and kick returner. Since new general manager Scot McCloughan brought in Crowder and inherited Roberts, we like Crowder’s chance of winning that battle. However, with uncertainties at quarterback and a pair of solid veterans in DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in starting roles, Crowder is waiver wire material in redraft leagues. He rates as a lower tier prospect in dynasty formats.

WR Ryan Grant

The Redskins used a 5th round pick in the 2014 NFL Draft to acquire Grant. Stuck behind a slew of veteran pass catchers, Grant’s selection was questionable to begin with and, not surprisingly, he failed to produce as a rookie, catching just seven of his 15 targets for 68 yards. Given his lack of size (6’0″ and 199 pounds) and speed (4.6 40 yard time), we don’t view Grant as much of a prospect. Not helping matters is that the team’s new management regime won’t hesitate in replacing Grant with players they choose to bring in.

TE Jordan Reed

There was a time when Reed rated as a potential top five fantasy tight end. However, after just two seasons in the league, most pundits have moved that notion to the rearview mirror as a result of his inability to stay healthy with Reed missing 12 of a possible 32 games. Not helping matters is that Reed failed to get in sync with Robert Griffin III last season, catching 18 of 23 targets for 131 yards in the six games they started together. When Colt McCoy played most of the games, Reed caught 24 of his 31 targets for 242 yards in four games. While Reed still possesses more than enough talent to emerge as a difference maker at tight end, his injury history and lack of chemistry with expected starter RGIII moves him down to upper tier TE2 status. Not helping matters is that his lack of size (6’3″ and 245 pounds) make him a less than ideal red zone threat, as evidenced by his inability to score in 2014.

Also see: Washington Redskins IDP Team Report | Dallas Cowboys

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Washington Redskins IDP Team Report

June 11, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

The Washington Redskins had no shortage of problems in 2014, including a defense that checked in 20th in the National Football League. That defense remains largely unchanged this year, although there are a few players of interest to IDP owners.

Defensive Linemen

Unfortunately, those players aren’t along the defensive front, where there’s only one middling option of note for fantasy owners in IDP leagues. After posting 11 sacks two seasons ago for the Dallas Cowboys, defensive end Jason Hatcher saw that number drop by half in 2014. Hatcher told Fox Sports that he thinks a rebound is in store with Washington going to more one-gap concepts in 2015. “It’s attack. We’re not sitting back, we’re attacking,” said Hatcher.

With a shallow IDP talent pool up front any sort of bounce-back would be music to the ears of IDP owners, but we wouldn’t go shelling out significant fantasy draft capital expecting that to be the case.

Linebackers

If there was a pleasant surprise for IDP owners in the nation’s capital last year it was likely linebacker Keenan Robinson, who finally stayed relatively healthy in his second NFL season. The result was 109 total tackles and a top-20 fantasy ranking at his position over the first 13 weeks of the season.

Robinson told Stephen Czarda of the team’s website he hopes to build on last year’s numbers this season. “I’m going to get to that point where I know what’s coming beforehand so I can not only put myself in a better position to make plays, but put my team in a better position to make plays,” Robinson said. “That will come with experience.”

Robinson wasn’t an especially effective from an NFL perspective (he ranked 44th among inside linebackers at Pro Football Focus), but IDP owners don’t care about that. They care about the ample tackle opportunities that should keep Robinson in IDP LB2 territory.

Batterymate Perry Riley fared even worse, barely cracking the top 50. Riley’s numbers have now slid in three straight seasons, and while there could be some fantasy appeal to be had, Riley will have to hold off William Compton to keep his starting job first.

Defensive Backs

The Achilles tear that ended DeAngelo Hall’s season put a great deal of pressure on young cornerback Bashaud Breeland, and Breeland responded for both his NFL team and IDP owners, ranking as a top-10 cornerback in fantasy scoring over the season’s second half. There’s going to be weekly variance, but Breeland is a decent IDP DB3 and quality weekly starter in IDP leagues that require his position.

Some unwise IDP owners may be tempted to chase ghosts by rolling Hall out there one last time in 2015, but he’s 31, coming off a significant injury and there’s talk of scaling back his snaps this year. Don’t pay for the past, or you’ll mess up the present.

No, if there’s real value to be had in the D.C. defensive backfield it’s likely with the winner of the camp battle at strong safety. Whether that’s third-year pro Phillip Thomas or free-agent acquisition Jeron Johnson remains to be seen, but whoever winds up the starter could be a sneaky value play late in IDP drafts this summer.

Also see: Washington Redskins Team Report | Dallas Cowboys IDP

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

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