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Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4 + Pick Up Matthew Boyd

April 11, 2019 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd says, “yeah baby, made the first edition of Straight Cheese in 2019.”*

* Not an actual quote from Matthew Boyd

Welcome back to another year of Straight Cheese! This is my weekly column where I suggest starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor for the upcoming week. For the most part, I try and suggest players with low ownership. This week we are looking at streaming starting pitchers week 4.

Identifying Weak Hitting Lineups

I like to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak lineups and conversely, for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

With it being so early in the season not enough data has accumulated to look exclusively at 2019 stats. A solution is to look back at 2018 and these first few weeks of 2019 to get an idea of teams to pick on. Here are the bottom third teams in each stat from 2018 along with their current 2019 numbers.

All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday morning, April 11.

wOBA 2018 2019 ISO 2018 2019 K% 2018 2019
Marlins 0.289 (30th) 0.277 (24th) Marlins 0.119 (30th) 0.132 (25th) White Sox 26.3% (30th) 26.1% (25th)
Giants 0.290 (29th) 0.257 (30th) Giants 0.129 (29th) 0.115 (29th) Padres 25.1% (29th) 22.9% (16th)
Padres 0.294 (28th) 0.309 (18th) Tigers 0.138 (28th) 0.112 (30th) Phillies 24.8% (28th) 21.5% (10th)
Tigers 0.295 (27th) 0.268 (27th) Padres 0.145 (27th) 0.178 (13th) Rangers 24.1% (27th) 27.6% (28th)
Orioles 0.299 (26th) 0.295 (22nd) Royals 0.146 (26th) 0.156 (18th) Giants 24.0% (26th) 25.0% (20th)
Royals 0.303 (25th) 0.296 (21st) Reds 0.148 (25th) 0.177 (15th) Diamondbacks 23.7% (25th) 21.9% (11th)
White Sox 0.304 (24th) 0.304 (19th) Rays 0.148 (24th) 0.146 (20th) Brewers 23.5% (24th) 22.8% (15th)
Mets 0.305 (23rd) 0.345 (10th) Orioles 0.152 (23rd) 0.146 (21st) Orioles 23.4% (23rd) 22.6% (14th)
Diamondbacks 0.306 (22nd) 0.352 (6th) Cubs 0.152 (22nd) 0.190 (10th) Blue Jays 22.8% (22nd) 28.0% (29th)
Phillies 0.307 (21st) 0.341 (12th) Pirates 0.154 (21st) 0.135 (24th) Marlins 22.8% (21st) 24.7% (19th)

Here are the teams still in bottom third in all three stats: San Francisco Giants. The Miami Marlins are really close. So, I’m going to start with these two teams to pick on by identifying starting pitchers facing the Giants and Marlins next week. Next week’s schedules:

  • Giants: Washington Nationals (away) and Pittsburgh Pirates (away)
  • Marlins: Chicago Cubs (home) and Washington Nationals (home)

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4

RHP Anibal Sanchez, WAS
Owned Y20%/E12% · at Miami Marlins – Friday, April 19th

Marlins are posting a 0.284 wOBA (21st), 0.116 ISO (27th) and 31.8 K% (29th) at home versus RHP so far in 2019. Now that is only 49 plate appearances, but rest assured they were just as bad last season when facing RHP at home: 0.290 wOBA (30th), 0.106 ISO (30th) and only striking out 21.0% of the time (13th). They are ripe to be taken advantage of.

Sanchez should do just that. His numbers aren’t great after two starts (both against a very dangerous Phillies lineup): 6.52 era, 4.83 xFIP, 1.76 whip, 20.0 K% in 9.2 innings. He’s coming off a brilliant year with Atlanta and matchups don’t get any better then this.

RHP Trevor Williams, PIT
Owned Y46%/E40% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Friday, April 19th

Giants are currently posting a 0.283 wOBA (20th), 0.171 ISO (13th) and 23.7 K% (19th) when facing RHP on the road. Last season, in the same split, they put up a 0.287 wOBA (28th), 0.130 ISO (29th) and 26.3 K% (30th). I don’t need to tell you that their numbers are better this season than last. But… can you trust them? They didn’t really improve their lineup in the off season (and, Kevin Pillar isn’t the answer, either).

Williams is coming off two starts, both against the underperforming Reds. Through 12 innings he’s got a 2.25 era, 3.86 xFIP, 0.92 whip and a 19.6 K%. Those numbers are even better than last season’s 3.11 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP and 18.0 K% in 170.2 innings. Many were predicting Williams to regress back down to earth in 2019. It hasn’t happened yet, and the Giants don’t seem to be the team to pull him back down either.

I still need one more starting pitcher to recommend for you, my loyal readers. I always like to give you three. I’m going to look at teams still in bottom third in two of the three stats: Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are really close. Next week’s schedules:

  • Tigers: Pittsburgh (home) and White Sox (home)
  • Orioles: Boston Red Sox (away), Tampa Rays (away) and Minnesota Twins (home)
  • Royals: White Sox (away) and New York Yankees (away)
  • White Sox: Royals (home ) and Tigers (away)

RHP Yonny Chirinos, TB
Owned Y62%/E33% · vs. Baltimore Orioles – Wednesday, April 17th

Through 151 plate appearances in 2019, the Orioles are currently putting up 0.294 wOBA (18th), 0.130 ISO (22nd) and striking out 28.5% of the time (23rd) against RHP on the road. Because you want to know, last year in the same split they posted a 0.296 wOBA (24th), 0.154 ISO (21st) and struck out 26.0% of the time (28th). The Orioles are skill-challenged.

Chirinos has come out of the gate strong. Through two starts (Astros at home and Giants on the road) he has a 0.75 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 0.42 WHIP and 29.0K% in 12 innings. Last season in 89.2 innings he put up a 3.5 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP and 20.3 K%. He’s not a strikeout machine but he gets the job done and that should continue against the Orioles.

Extra Cheese

Starting this season I’ll be suggesting a two-start pitcher for the upcoming week. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen. The world is an imperfect place; screws fall out all the time.

LHP Matthew Boyd, DET
Owned Y69%/E44% · vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Tue Apr 16) & vs. Chicago White Sox (Sun Apr 21)

While the opponents offer something to take advantage of, this is more about Boyd himself. His ownership has been climbing steadily since the beginning of the season and rightfully so. He’s seems to be truly breaking out in 2019. Through three starts (17.1 innings) he has a 2.60 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP and 40.3 K%. Last season he put up a 4.39 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP and 22.4 K%. He’s worth owning in all formats at this point.

Next week he faces the Pirates who did alright facing southpaws in 2018: 0.315 wOBA (15th), 0.163 ISO (11th) and 21.2 K% (7th). So far in 2019 they aren’t faring as well: 0.269 wOBA (27th), 0.024 ISO (30th) and 22.4 K% (14th).

Next weekend he gets the White Sox who were in the bottom third of the league versus LHP: 0.306 wOBA (20th), 0.143 ISO (20th) and 27.8 K% (30th). They aren’t doing much better so far in 2019: 0.294 wOBA (22nd), 0.128 ISO (19th) and 26.9 K% (24th).

If Boyd is on your waiver wire then pick him up now and thank me later.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday August 24

August 24, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a RHP at home (Erasmo Ramirez SEA who has faced 85 batters). On FanDuel the Diamondbacks are currently putting up 2.10 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Erasmo Ramirez is currently allowing 133% more PPA than the MLB average (2.116 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.80 (2.10 x 133%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Diamondbacks RHP at home Erasmo Ramirez SEA 85 2.10 x 133% 2.80 +0.70 1.59 x 133% 2.12 +0.53
Nationals LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 272 1.98 x 142% 2.81 +0.83 1.49 x 140% 2.10 +0.60
Athletics RHP on road Jake Odorizzi MIN 571 2.43 x 109% 2.65 +0.22 1.85 x 108% 1.99 +0.14
Giants RHP at home Drew Hutchison TEX 155 2.14 x 124% 2.65 +0.51 1.63 x 122% 1.99 +0.36
Yankees RHP on road Alex Cobb BAL 579 2.14 x 118% 2.52 +0.38 1.62 x 118% 1.90 +0.29
Astros LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 583 2.52 x 99% 2.50 -0.02 1.92 x 99% 1.90 -0.02
Braves RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 450 2.15 x 113% 2.43 +0.27 1.64 x 110% 1.82 +0.17
Tigers RHP at home Reynaldo Lopez CHW 621 2.04 x 110% 2.25 +0.21 1.57 x 109% 1.71 +0.14
Mets RHP at home Jefry Rodriguez WSN 131 1.82 x 124% 2.26 +0.44 1.40 x 121% 1.69 +0.29
Mariners RHP on road Zack Godley ARI 631 2.17 x 101% 2.19 +0.02 1.67 x 100% 1.66 -0.01
Blue Jays RHP at home Jake Arrieta PHI 567 2.32 x 94% 2.19 -0.13 1.76 x 94% 1.65 -0.11
White Sox RHP on road Michael Fulmer DET 471 2.04 x 106% 2.15 +0.11 1.56 x 105% 1.63 +0.08
Cardinals RHP on road Antonio Senzatela COL 226 2.18 x 97% 2.12 -0.06 1.66 x 97% 1.61 -0.05
Dodgers LHP at home Clayton Richard SDP 661 1.94 x 108% 2.10 +0.16 1.48 x 107% 1.58 +0.10
Padres LHP on road Rich Hill LAD 388 2.01 x 98% 1.97 -0.04 1.55 x 98% 1.52 -0.03
Brewers RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 367 2.24 x 86% 1.94 -0.31 1.71 x 88% 1.51 -0.20
Red Sox TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.94 x 100% 1.94 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Twins LHP at home Sean Manaea OAK 633 2.10 x 91% 1.91 -0.18 1.61 x 92% 1.49 -0.12
Orioles LHP at home CC Sabathia NYY 517 1.96 x 94% 1.85 -0.11 1.53 x 95% 1.45 -0.08
Phillies LHP on road Ryan Borucki TOR 236 1.72 x 108% 1.85 +0.13 1.32 x 108% 1.43 +0.11
Indians RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 416 2.15 x 85% 1.83 -0.32 1.63 x 87% 1.42 -0.21
Rockies RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 629 2.29 x 77% 1.77 -0.52 1.75 x 80% 1.40 -0.35
Rays RHP at home Hector Velazquez BOS 281 2.01 x 84% 1.68 -0.33 1.54 x 88% 1.36 -0.19
Royals RHP at home Mike Clevinger CLE 646 1.88 x 90% 1.69 -0.19 1.45 x 91% 1.32 -0.13
Pirates LHP on road Wade Miley MIL 187 2.16 x 78% 1.70 -0.47 1.65 x 79% 1.30 -0.35
Angels LHP at home Dallas Keuchel HOU 681 1.77 x 92% 1.62 -0.15 1.36 x 93% 1.27 -0.09
Rangers RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 320 2.01 x 76% 1.54 -0.48 1.54 x 78% 1.20 -0.34
Marlins RHP at home Mike Foltynewicz ATL 572 1.82 x 83% 1.52 -0.30 1.42 x 84% 1.19 -0.23

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Cubs LHP at home Matt Harvey CIN 502 2.52 x 109% 2.75 +0.23 1.90 x 109% 2.07 +0.17
Reds RHP on road Alec Mills CHC 6 2.02 x 0% 0.00 -2.02 1.55 x 0% 0.00 -1.55

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Saturday August 4

August 4, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Minnesota Twins are facing a RHP at home (Burch Smith KCR who has faced 236 batters). On FanDuel the Twins are currently putting up 2.30 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Burch Smith is currently allowing 121% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.79 (2.30 x 121%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.119 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Twins RHP at home Burch Smith KCR 236 2.30 x 121% 2.79 +0.49 1.74 x 119% 2.06 +0.33
Indians RHP at home Felix Pena LAA 148 2.56 x 107% 2.73 +0.17 1.92 x 106% 2.04 +0.12
Nationals LHP at home Matt Harvey CIN 428 2.32 x 112% 2.59 +0.27 1.75 x 111% 1.95 +0.20
Rangers RHP at home Dylan Bundy BAL 488 2.27 x 113% 2.57 +0.31 1.70 x 113% 1.92 +0.22
Red Sox RHP at home Chance Adams NYY – 2.55 x 100% 2.55 +0.00 1.93 x 100% 1.93 +0.00
Cubs LHP at home Joey Lucchesi SDP 325 2.54 x 99% 2.50 -0.04 1.91 x 99% 1.88 -0.02
Mariners RHP at home Marco Estrada TOR 397 2.01 x 116% 2.34 +0.33 1.56 x 116% 1.80 +0.24
Cardinals RHP on road Ivan Nova PIT 487 2.12 x 110% 2.33 +0.22 1.61 x 112% 1.80 +0.19
Dodgers RHP at home Lance McCullers Jr. HOU 506 2.35 x 96% 2.26 -0.09 1.78 x 94% 1.68 -0.10
Astros RHP on road Kenta Maeda LAD 415 2.40 x 92% 2.22 -0.18 1.81 x 92% 1.67 -0.14
Diamondbacks LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 414 2.14 x 101% 2.16 +0.02 1.64 x 103% 1.69 +0.05
Athletics RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 297 2.00 x 109% 2.18 +0.18 1.52 x 110% 1.67 +0.15
Phillies RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 491 2.24 x 98% 2.20 -0.04 1.69 x 98% 1.66 -0.03
Yankees RHP on road Nathan Eovaldi BOS 248 2.20 x 94% 2.06 -0.14 1.67 x 95% 1.58 -0.08
Braves RHP on road Zack Wheeler NYM 508 2.23 x 91% 2.04 -0.20 1.70 x 92% 1.55 -0.14
Reds RHP on road Jeremy Hellickson WSN 297 2.10 x 95% 1.99 -0.11 1.60 x 96% 1.54 -0.06
Mets RHP at home Kevin Gausman ATL 534 1.79 x 108% 1.93 +0.14 1.37 x 110% 1.51 +0.13
Brewers LHP at home Tyler Anderson COL 518 1.99 x 96% 1.92 -0.07 1.51 x 96% 1.45 -0.05
Angels RHP on road Corey Kluber CLE 561 2.23 x 84% 1.87 -0.36 1.70 x 86% 1.46 -0.24
Marlins RHP on road Zach Eflin PHI 320 1.93 x 96% 1.85 -0.08 1.50 x 97% 1.45 -0.05
Blue Jays LHP on road James Paxton SEA 505 2.13 x 88% 1.87 -0.26 1.61 x 88% 1.42 -0.19
Pirates LHP at home Austin Gomber STL 90 2.03 x 93% 1.89 -0.14 1.55 x 90% 1.40 -0.15
Orioles LHP on road Mike Minor TEX 460 1.63 x 112% 1.83 +0.20 1.28 x 112% 1.43 +0.15
Rays LHP at home Carlos Rodon CHW 238 2.14 x 85% 1.82 -0.31 1.63 x 84% 1.37 -0.25
Padres RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 527 1.76 x 99% 1.74 -0.02 1.37 x 100% 1.37 +0.00
Royals RHP on road Jose Berrios MIN 563 1.96 x 88% 1.72 -0.24 1.51 x 88% 1.33 -0.18
Rockies RHP on road Freddy Peralta MIL 192 2.04 x 86% 1.75 -0.29 1.55 x 82% 1.27 -0.28
White Sox LHP on road Blake Snell TBR 474 2.00 x 77% 1.54 -0.46 1.54 x 77% 1.20 -0.35
Giants RHP on road Clay Buchholz ARI 206 1.87 x 81% 1.52 -0.36 1.46 x 83% 1.21 -0.25
Tigers RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 166 1.72 x 89% 1.53 -0.18 1.33 x 89% 1.18 -0.15

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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