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Denver Broncos Team Report

August 19, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Certainly not the consensus choice, but our pick for top wide receiver in fantasy football this upcoming season, Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas.

Certainly not the consensus choice, but our pick for top wide receiver in fantasy football this upcoming season, Denver Broncos Demaryius Thomas.

QB Peyton Manning

At age 36 coming off multiple neck surgeries, Manning threw for 4,659 yards with 37 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. As an even healthier 37 year-old, he reached career highs and set NFL records with 5,477 passing yards and 55 touchdowns passes while reducing his interception count to 10. At 38, forced to play a full quarter of the season (for the mathematically challenged that translates into four games) with a quad injury that severely limited his throwing motion, Manning threw for 4,727 yards with 39 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions.

In 2015, the question for fantasy owners is whether Manning is closer to the quarterback that averaged 26.7 PPG over his first 12 games last season or the one who averaged just 13.7 PPG over his final four games? Let’s look outside the numbers for a minute. Offensive coordinator Adam Gase is replaced by head coach Gary Kubiak, who will handle play calling duties. That should translate into a more balanced run-pass ratio. Julius Thomas and Wes Welker are gone in exchange for Owen Daniels and Cody Latimer. That’s a downgrade, although not as significant as it first seems since the Broncos will be utilizing more two tight end sets, meaning Latimer won’t be relied upon as much as Welker was. And, hey, Welker was a shell of his former self last season (there’s a reason that he is currently without a team). And left tackle Ryan Clady will miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Although Manning’s supporting cast is not as stellar as it was during his superlative 2013 season, it seems foolhardy to bet against his impressive string of solid performances as his career begins to wind down. And with an ADP in the middle of the 4th round, he rates as a solid bargain with fantasy owners perhaps too focused on his injury-induced poor performance to end 2014.

RB C.J. Anderson

Buried on the depth chart behind Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman and in a battle with Juwan Thompson to win the 3rd running back role entering training camp last season, Anderson was a surprise fantasy superstar in 2014, gaining 849 rushing yards, 324 receiving yards and scoring 10 total touchdowns. Better yet, he was an absolute beast from Week 10 until the end of the season, hitting double digit fantasy points in eight of nine games (including the playoffs), and scoring 9.6 points in the game he failed to hit double digits. While new head coach Gary Kubiak brings a different offensive system to the Broncos in 2015, the question is how Anderson will acclimate to the new system, not what his role will be in it. There is little doubt that he will open the season as a starter and Kubiak has a history of using a workhorse running back to handle rushing duties. And with Anderson having piled up 1,166 total yards and 10 touchdowns in his final nine games last season, we have little doubt that he can handle such a role. Anderson rates as a mid-tier RB1 in 2015 as a player who could emerge as a top-three fantasy option, but one who also carries some risk given his short history of solid productivity.

RB Montee Ball

Since being taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft, the Broncos have clearly done everything in their power to afford Montee Ball the opportunity emerge as an elite running back. To no avail. Shortly after Ball’s selection in the draft, Denver parted ways with incumbent starter Willis McGahee, only to watch Knowshon Moreno take over as the team’s starter and post the best year of his career. That performance wasn’t good enough to earn a new contract so Moreno left for Miami leaving Ball once again atop the depth chart. This time, he struggled out of the gate, gaining just 172 rushing yards on 55 carries in four games (to be fair, two of those games were against the Seahawks and Cardinals) before suffering a groin injury that kept him out until Week 11 at which point he was placed on season ending injured reserve. Heading into 2015, the Broncos are no longer willing to simply hand the starting job over to Ball. He will open the season behind C.J. Anderson, who enjoyed a stellar campaign in 2014, and there are no indications that Ball rates as anything more than a backup. Since new head coach Gary Kubiak generally employs a workhorse back, Ball rates as no more than an Anderson handcuff provided he wins that role over Ronnie Hillman.

RB Ronnie Hillman

After two largely disappointing seasons after being taken in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft, Hillman was enjoying the finest year of his career before suffering a foot injury that caused him to miss six games from Week 11 to Week 16. Subbing in for an injured Montee Ball, Hillman amassed 347 rushing yards, 74 receiving yards and two touchdowns during a four week stretch from Week 5 to Week 9. Entering 2015, Hillman will compete with Ball and Juwan Thompson for the backup role behind C.J. Anderson. Despite his solid production last season, we expect Ball to emerge as the winner of that competition, leaving Hillman fighting for table scraps as a change of pace, occasional receiving threat. All that being said, he remains worthy of a late round flyer given Ball’s struggles thus far in his career and the fact that Anderson, although hugely productive last season, lacks a lengthy proven record as a starter.

WR Demaryius Thomas

Over the past three years, Thomas has topped 1,400 receiving yards with double-digit touchdowns and he enjoyed the finest season of his six-year career in 2014, reaching career highs in receptions with 111 and yards with 1,619 while scoring 11 touchdowns. With 470 targets, 297 receptions, 4,483 yards and 35 touchdowns over the past three seasons, you might think he would be the consensus top fantasy wide receiver entering 2015. However, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant and Julio Jones are all going ahead of him based on current ADP. While Peyton Manning is another year older and carries additional risk with each passing year, Thomas should be in line for a major number of targets in 2015 due to the departures of Julius Thomas and Wes Welker. In addition, while the touchdown production of some players fluctuates, that isn’t the case with Thomas, who seems like a sure fire bet for double-digit touchdowns for the fourth consecutive year. And with all of the targets, we see another 1,600-yard season on tap as well. You see where this is headed, right? Thomas rates as our top ranked fantasy wide receiver in 2015.

WR Emmanuel Sanders

Signed by the Broncos prior to last season after four largely disappointing seasons in Pittsburgh, Sanders enjoyed a breakout season during his first year in Denver, reaching career highs across the board with 141 targets, 101 receptions, 1,404 yards and nine touchdowns. The question for 2015 is – can he repeat that performance in a new offensive system designed by head coach Gary Kubiak? We think not. While Sanders’ solid production last season wasn’t a huge surprise given his increased role due to injuries to Wes Welker and Julius Thomas (both since departed) and talent level, he isn’t expected to approach his targets count of 141 from a year ago with the Broncos employing a more conservative, run based approach. And even if the Broncos had retained their coaching staff from a year ago, we still would have been predicting a decline in his touchdown production. Consider Sanders a mid-tier WR2 with upside.

WR Cody Latimer

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, Latimer’s 2014 season was basically a redshirt year as he rarely saw the field and caught just two passes for 23 yards. The 6’2″, 215 pound Indiana product wasn’t expected to contribute much playing behind Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker but by all accounts, his rookie season was a major disappointment with Latimer failing to learn the team’s playbook, a major faux pas when playing with a perfectionist such as Peyton Manning. In 2015, Latimer figures to take Welker’s spot in the receiver rotation but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a big leap in his fantasy appeal. With new head coach Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are expected to lean more heavily on their rushing attack and to go heavy on two tight end formations. That doesn’t bode well for Latimer’s playing time as he enters his second season in the league. Barring injury to Thomas or Sanders, Latimer has little appeal in redraft formats. He rates as a lower end prospect in dynasty formats despite his considerable skills since Manning may not be around by the time Latimer earns significant playing time.

TE Owen Daniels

Signed off the scrap prior to last season after a disappointing, injury-plagued final season in 2013 with the Texans, Daniels resurrected his career in Baltimore, catching 48 passes for 527 yards and four touchdowns as he subbed in for an injured Dennis Pitta. After following his former head coach Gary Kubiak from Houston to Baltimore, Daniels followed Kubiak once again for the 2015 season, this time to Denver. On the surface, that sounds like a scenario to upgrade the fantasy prospects of the 32-year old tight end but Denver features one of the league’s top red zone threats in Demaryius Thomas and Daniels is likely to share the tight end duties with Virgil Green. He rates as a mid-tier TE2 and a player who will likely boom or bust from week to week.

Also see: Denver Broncos IDP Team Report · Kansas City Chiefs Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Super-Flex with IDP Dynasty Draft Recap

July 9, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

In a new startup dynasty fantasy football draft for a league with a super-flex (flex QB) position, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck is about as no-brainer as it gets for pick 1.01.

In a new startup dynasty fantasy football draft for a league with a super-flex (flex QB) position, Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck is about as no-brainer as it gets for pick 1.01.

Playing fantasy football has taught me what I really like and don’t like in terms of different league formats. In joining a new startup dynasty league this summer, I found exactly what I wanted. The league uses performance plus point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, includes individual defensive players (IDP) and has a super-flex starting position. That means I can start a QB/RB/WR/TE in that roster spot, in addition to another flex starting position which is the more common RB/WR/TE.

Strategizing prior to the draft, although I am not required to start 2 QB, I approached it as a 2 QB league since quarterbacks score the most points. The position could dry up quickly if I don’t put appropriate emphasis on acquiring two starters.

Wide receivers have more value in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues because they typically have longer fantasy-productive careers than running backs. However, the way football is trending in the NFL and college, the wide receiver position is extremely deep. I don’t want to wait too long to draft running backs.

My plan was to target a top tier quarterback in round one, wide receiver in round two, and then go best player available in rounds three and four.

1.01 QB Andrew Luck, Colts

What a way to start, with the first overall pick in a startup dynasty league. Since this is, in my mind, a 2 QB league, my decision was between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, arguably the two best quarterbacks in the game currently. I decided to go with the youth of Luck since this is a dynasty league. He is only getting better and is not yet close to his peak. Note, Rodgers fell to pick 1.05.

2.07 WR Randall Cobb, Packers

I was part of the first trade of the league. During pick 2.04 selection, I traded my 2.10 and 3.01 draft picks for picks 2.07 and 3.04, moving up three slots in the draft. I had a tough decision between wide receivers Randall Cobb and Alshon Jeffery. I took Cobb. He is six months younger than Jeffery, but has one more year in the NFL than Jeffery. Cobb had more fantasy points in 2014. With the new head coach John Fox in Chicago, I am not exactly sure how the offense will look in 2015, but I do know how the offense runs in Green Bay. Finally, the tipping point was Cobb has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, who I have a TON more confidence in than Jay Cutler and whoever the future is in Chicago.

3.04 WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears

Well, forget all those negative comments I just made towards Alshon, I was surprised he fell to me at 3.04. I gladly took him. Jeffery is the new number one wide receiver in Chicago. With the additions of rookie Kevin White and free agent Eddie Royal, Jeffery should not be swamped with double coverage every play. The last two seasons, playing alongside Brandon Marshall (now with the New York Jets), Jeffery was able to finish as the ninth ranked wide receiver in 2013 and 12th ranked WR in 2014. I’m excited to see what he can do with new offensive coordinator Adam Gase who joins the Bears from the Denver Broncos.

4.10 RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers

The second rookie running back taken in the 2015 NFL Draft, Melvin Gordon landed in a great situation. If you read my Top 10 Rookie Running Backs, you know I am very high on Gordon, so much so that I like him more than rookie Todd Gurley due to his torn ACL history (even though he seems to be recovering well). Gordon will be a great two-down back that can move the chains. His only competition is on third down where veteran Danny Woodhead will steal some production. Gordon has a bright future ahead of him, I am glad he is on my team.

5.01 RB Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

After taking a rookie as my first running back on my team, I had a very difficult decision on my hands between veteran running backs Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch and youngster Carlos Hyde. Since I already own Jeffery, I did not want a RB/WR combo from the same NFL team on my team, which nixed Forte. Hyde showed some bursts of success in 2014, however, the San Francisco team is a lot different this year. Hyde is more “boom or bust.” So, I’ll take a top five consistent running back in Lynch. Yes, he is approaching 30 years old, but he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down. Of the only five running backs to finish in the Top 12 running backs EACH of the last three years, Lynch finished with the second best yards-per-carry (YPC) at 4.64. I have a great core of youth so far; I figured I could afford an aged veteran who still produces week in and week out.

6.10 RB Alfred Morris, Redskins

My MFL10 draft recap already indicated I am all-in on Alfred Morris this year. Morris is in the last year of his rookie contract, so he will try to make a statement for either the Washington Redskins to resign him or for another team to pay him some big money. Also, the Redskins brought in a possible threat to Morris’ job in Matt Jones. I feel Jones will only push Morris to be more successful. Just like Lynch, Morris finished with a solid 4.52 YPC among an exclusive group of running backs who ranked in the Top 12 at their position each of the last three years.

7.01 QB Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater had the most successful rookie season of the rookie quarterbacks in 2014. He now has running back Adrian Peterson returning, the burner Mike Wallace at wide receiver, and sleeper receiver Charles Johnson to threaten defenses. Bridgewater is young and shows a TON of potential, I love him as my second quarterback as I expect him to crack the Top 12 quarterbacks this year, and his youth makes him a high value dynasty asset.

8.10 WR Jarvis Landry, Dolphins

Of the strong performances by rookie wide receivers in 2014, not many people recognize what Jarvis Landry accomplished. He had a great season in his own right. Landry caught 84 of 112 targets thrown his way, which makes for a 75% catch rate. Landry is a PPR machine. With the departure of Mike Wallace, and additions of receiver Kenny Stills and tight end Jordan Cameron, everything is set up for Landry to build on his strong rookie year as an also-ascending Ryan Tannehill’s number one receiving option.

9.01 WR Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Playing alongside arguably the best fantasy wide receiver in Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant proved he is here to stay in the NFL. Bryant is the definition of “deep ball threat”, tracking 549 yards on only 26 receptions last season for a ridiculously good 21.1 yards per reception. The expectation is that he beats out Markus Wheaton for the starting job opposite Brown in 2015, resulting in more snaps and more opportunity. Bryant appears committed to his craft, even taking mixed martial arts training in the offseason to help with his hand work fighting off defenders. Bryant rounds out a corps of great young wide receivers on my team that I am extremely happy with.

10.10 LB Jamie Collins, Patriots
11.01 LB Alec Ogletree, Rams

Finally paying some attention to the IDP side of my roster, my first two linebackers finished just inside the Top 10 linebackers in 2014. Jamie Collins finished ninth and Alec Ogletree, tenth. Collins plays on a team with a strong offense. He relies more on big plays which he definitely showed a knack for last season, plus was no slouch in the tackle department once he earned significant playing time. Ogletree plays on a team with an offense that struggles, providing solid tackle opportunity for him. Plus he plays three downs due to his solid pass coverage skills. He led the league in passes defensed amongst LB last season with 12. Both players are only in entering their third year in the league.

At this point in the draft, in a 10-team league with 35-man rosters, I wanted to trade up to help acquire more quality defensive players of my choosing at the expense of some slightly later round picks. While I can wait at defensive back, the defensive line will get thin on quality rather quickly, and it is always good to stockpile linebackers, another thinning position in recent years with more 3-4 defensive formations and increased passing offenses. I successfully traded up to picks 11.03 and 11.05, while moving out of the 12th, 13th and 14th rounds completely.

11.03 LB Telvin Smith, Jaguars

Telvin Smith was quite a surprise for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014 as he emerged as a three-down linebacker by the end of the year. Smith had a phenomenal second half of the 2014 season. After starting with only 20 solo tackles through eight games, he finished with 52 solo tackles over the last eight games, three games of which were in double digits. He finished with a total of 104 tackles (72 solo) despite playing fewer than 75% of the available defensive snaps. Smith is going to become an elite linebacker in 2015 and is a great addition to round out my amazing linebacker corps.

11.05 DE Chandler Jones, Patriots
15.03 DE Ezekiel Ansah, Lions

My next two picks consisted of young and productive defensive ends. Chandler Jones ranks among the top five defensive ends in the game. Although he was injured part of the 2014 season, he had an unspecified surgery this offseason (hopefully to fix the 2014 injury) and is expected to be ready for the start of training camp. Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah is entering his third year for the Detroit Lions. He increased his stats from 2013 to 2014, and I expect another increase in 2015. After the J.J. Watt DL tier, there is the reliable 10 sack, not shy tacklers DL tier, who we can trust to start every week for fantasy regardless of matchup. Jones and Ansah fall in that tier, which if you don’t pay a fair price for these players can leave you scrambling and frustrated at the position.

16.06 DB Landon Collins, Giants
16.10 LB Stephone Anthony, Saints

Two rookie selections here, but they are not classified as “rookie fever,” at least not in my book. Landon Collins plays the safety position, but he likes to play in the defensive “box” which means his opportunity to rack up tackles is extremely high. Stephone Anthony should start for the New Orleans Saints Day 1 as they do not have any competition ahead of him. He is great against the run, a great athlete, and a great tackler.

17.10 TE Dwayne Allen, Colts

I selected Tyler Eifert at 17.01 however, right after I did, an owner contacted me asking me what I wanted for Eifert. After reviewing the available tight ends, I agreed to trade Eifert, pick 22.10 and pick 29.01 for picks 17.10, 20.03 and 25.08.

I love the Andrew Luck to Dwayne Allen connection. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Indianapolis, so Allen might not see as many targets as he did in 2014, but he is a big touchdown-target for Luck.

19.01 RB Matt Jones, Redskins
20.03 RB Joique Bell, Lions
21.01 WR Kendall Wright, Titans

Rookie Matt Jones is backing up my Alfred Morris pick. With Morris in a contract year, Jones might be in line to take over for Morris next year. Early reports suggest Jones may steal some looks from Morris in 2015, thus, I have this backfield locked up from other owners. As of right now, Joique Bell is the number one rusher for the Lions. He adds more depth to my running back position and his value was too good to pass up in the 20th round. A new offense and a new quarterback mean a possible resurgence in the career of Kendall Wright. I would not be surprised if he leads the Titans receivers this year.

23.01 QB Andy Dalton, Bengals
24.10 WR Justin Hardy, Falcons

Andy Dalton is the third quarterback on my roster. I am very surprised he is still available in the 23rd round. I know he is either hit or miss, but with AJ Green and Jeremy Hill, the team is bound to put up some points. He’s definitely great value here, in my opinion. With Julio Jones and Roddy White demanding all the attention on the outsides, rookie slot receiver Justin Hardy should find some openings on the field in the aerial attack of the Falcons. Given the injury history of both Jones and White, Hardy may be called upon to do more sooner rather than later.

25.01 DB Barry Church, Cowboys
26.10 LB Denzel Perryman, Chargers

27.01 LB Jake Ryan, Packers
Barry Church has consistently put up big fantasy numbers for defensive backs. Yes he is up there in age, but he continues to produce. Plus, the fantasy point differential in defensive backs at this stage in the draft is minimal. To round out my great linebacker squad, I decided to take a chance on two rookies in amazing positions. Both Denzel Perryman and Jake Ryan have the opportunity to put up massive numbers for their squads this year. It will not take much for Perryman to replace a disappointing Manti Te’o and lead the Chargers the in tackles as soon as the latter half of this season. Ryan can play any linebacker position, he is very versatile and a great athlete. Ryan is a tackling machine and could start for the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.

28.10 DB Michael Griffin, Titans

A veteran defensive back that always seems to produce. Michael Griffin finished insite the Top 10 defensive backs in 2014 for fantasy points and had the third most tackles. Griffin is a suitable bye-week replacement for my team.

30.10 TE Jason Witten, Cowboys

An aged veteran who continues to be his quarterback’s safety valve, Jason Witten has not seen his last good fantasy season quite yet. With the departure of DeMarco Murray and questionable running back replacements, QB Tony Romo might return to relying on his tight end more to get him out of tough situations.

31.01 RB Mike Davis, 49ers

Carlos Hyde is next in line to take over in the 49ers backfield since veteran Frank Gore left. In my opinion, Hyde is more of a “boom or bust” type player rather than a consistent fantasy producer. The 49ers also brought in veteran Reggie Bush whose purpose will most likely be in passing downs. Mike Davis was drafted in the 2015 NFL Draft and has a nice opportunity if Hyde underwhelms.

32.10 WR Stefon Diggs, Vikings

I love pairing a quarterback with a wide receiver from the same team. Rookie Stefon Diggs is a burner who will quickly work his way up from kickoff and punt returns to catching deep balls from quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Diggs may take on the role that underwhelming Cordarrelle Patterson has yet to fill.

33.01 K Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots

Kickers are kickers, not much difference in points between them all. Gostkowski has been a rock for the New England Patriots and should continue to produce.

34.10 DB Bashaud Breeland, Redskins

An underrated defensive back, Bashaud Breeland stepped up a big way in 2014 for the Washington Redskins. He finished his rookie season with 66 total tackles, 14 pass defenses, and two interceptions. I highly expect the number one corner for the Redskins to continue to grow in 2015 as this defense could be on the field much longer than the offense.

35.01 TE Virgil Green, Broncos

With the departure of tight end Julius Thomas, Virgil Green may finally step out into the spotlight, catching passes from one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, Peyton Manning. Green has mainly been used for run blocking, but he is too athletic to keep him under the same role in 2015. He will undoubtedly see more targets, which makes him a great backup with potential to break out.

35.03 RB Danny Woodhead, Chargers

With my final pick of the draft, I was surprised to still be able to land a positive fantasy contributor in PPR scoring leagues. With my earlier pick of Melvin Gordon, I pretty much lock up the Chargers backfield with Danny Woodhead. While Gordon is not much of a pass catcher, Woodhead will step in on third downs. Reports out of minicamp are that Woodhead looks like his former self prior to a 2014 injury. I think this is a great value pick and could be a huge steal in the draft.

My team:

QB Luck, Bridgewater (Dalton)
RB Lynch, Morris, Gordon (Bell, M. Jones, M. Davis, Woodhead)
WR Cobb, Jeffery, M. Bryant, Landry (Wright, Hardy, Diggs)
TE Allen (Witten, Green)
K Gostkowski
DL Ansah, Jones
LB J. Collins, Ogletree, T. Smith (Anthony, Perryman, Ryan)
DB L. Collins, Church, Griffin (Breeland)

Overall, I think my team rounded out nicely with a mix of young talent and proven veterans. This team should be highly competitive right away, while it still has a very bright long-term outlook thanks to Luck, Bridgewater, Gordon and the receivers.

This startup dynasty draft was a ton of fun. If you aren’t already playing dynasty fantasy football, then get to it. Make sure to try different format leagues this season with a super-flex position, or IDP, to break away from the traditional start 1 QB and team defense leagues.

Filed Under: Dynasty Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

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