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MFL10s Strategies Including Volume Value Drafting and ADP Tool

April 22, 2015 By mikemar Leave a Comment

While not a big Colin Kaepernick fan, the opportunity to draft him at 143rd overall when his ADP was 128th represented good value in that MFL10s draft.

While not a big Colin Kaepernick fan, the opportunity to draft him at 143rd overall when his ADP was 128th represented good value in that MFL10s draft.

Part I of my two-part article on MFL10s gave an overview of what these leagues are – draft-only bestball fantasy football leagues hosted by MyFantasyLeague – and roster construction – what your roster should look like after your draft. Today, in Part II, various strategies on how to pull together your winning roster.

There are many different strategies that you can explore playing MFL10s: RB early/heavy, WR early/heavy, early QB/TE, and what I use called, “Volume Value Drafting”. As with fantasy football in general, there is more than one way to do things strategy-wise, and luck plays a part. Below is a description of each strategy and how it can win and how it can lose.

Note for all strategies, picking top players that get hurt/suspended or just stink will kill any strategy, and hitting on guys like Jeremy Hill or Odell Beckham Jr. in the very late rounds of a draft last spring or summer can turn an otherwise bad strategy into a winner.

RB Early / Heavy

This strategy is to take 4 RBs in the first 5 rounds and end up with 4-5 RBs total. This can work with studs and hitting on WRs later on. You generally want to take 8 WRs to make up for the lack of top end talent. If a top RB gets hurt or vastly underperforms and your WRs can’t hold their own, you probably will be a top half of the table team, but won’t come in 1st place.

WR Early / Heavy

Punting RBs until later (maybe grabbing one RB in the first five rounds), this strategy gives you a high floor as WRs will put up a lot of PPR points. The downside to this strategy isn’t apparent until you get to your RB2-RB5 selections. Having guys like Frank Gore, Shane Vereen or Ryan Mathews as your second through fourth RBs can be a little scary, and they won’t be consistent week to week without the upside that the top RBs do. Going WR early, you need to get lucky and hit on a late RB. You increase your odds of hitting a sleeper drafting six RB in this strategy.

Early QB or TE

Taking a QB or TE early such as Rob Gronkowski, Andrew Luck, Jimmy Graham or Aaron Rodgers is a sidestep from the above two strategies. The main thing to note with this strategy is that it gives you the luxury of drafting just two QB or TE, not three, using the extra roster spot elsewhere. How beneficial this is somewhat depends on how any one particular draft plays out (i.e. what positions fall and represent the best value), which is sometimes tough to predict.

Volume Value Drafting

This is my favorite strategy, used by a number of players who draft a high volume of MFL10s. In a nutshell this strategy is, “take what the draft gives you”. Draft players that fall further than they should, and mix up similar guys to balance out your portfolio across numerous MFL10s of any one given player.

Last year I created an ADP drafting tool to help me draft in this manner, identifying the best draft values, and I have found it to be invaluable. This year the draft tool is available to the public.

This tool is generally for people that plan to do 15 or more drafts. Last year I did 40 MFL10s, winning six and finished second in ten. I am very happy with these results and got unlucky in a few, which could have pushed the 1st place finishes to as high as nine. This year my goal is to complete 70 drafts.

The thought process for Volume Value Drafting is to get guys BELOW where they normally get drafted. For example, I not a big Colin Kaepernick fan. His ADP is 128 right now, but I have 1 share at 143, so I got him a full round and a half after the average. Another example is Vincent Jackson. His ADP is 83, but I got him at 110 in one draft, over two full rounds after most people draft him.

By doing this over and over again, I have a lot of shares of players drafted after where they should be taken. Compared to a team that took players near the average, I can put together teams that shouldn’t be possible, but they are. If I don’t get a guy I really wanted in a draft, I know there will be other chances in another draft to get a player where I want them, at a discount.

Team defenses are very random and I want to get as much of a mix as possible across the league, so while I would normally not take a defense in Round 14, in order to get a few shares of the Houston Texans or Buffalo Bills, I have to draft them a bit earlier.

After Round 14 or so players can really fall in drafts. Some teams may think, “I have enough RB”, or WR, or any position, and just not draft that position at all, no matter what player is available. Drafts where a few owners think this way provide a great opportunity for drafting a team worth much more potential than what you paid for it in draft picks.

With my ADP tool you can also easily track completed drafts and look at a player you have a lot of shares in from all of your MFL10s. If there are multiple QB2s you like at roughly the same ADP, you can easily glance at what QBs you already have and mix up your shares. Percentage-wise, I currently have a high stake in Blake Bortles, so going forward I may grab Alex Smith or even Robert Griffin III for my QB2/3 to spread out the risk.

Here is hoping you take the plunge trying an MFL10. If you have any questions then look me up on Twitter @MikeMar05 as I love to discuss this format.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Draft Strategy-Advice-Tips du Jour

July 24, 2009 By Dave 2 Comments

On the heels of my draft strategy article, it seemed like a good idea to hit on a number of smaller topics to help guide you through your upcoming fantasy football draft.

1. Value Is King

The most important consideration in any fantasy draft or auction is value. Theoretically, if every player that an owner acquires outperforms their draft position or auction cost, that team will be a contender for the league title. Of course, obtaining value is easy to say and hard to do. However, there are some basic tenets that are useful in ensuring your roster is shaped by solid values.

First off, do your homework and get your cheatsheets filled out early and update often as the preseason progresses. If you follow the league throughout the year, you’re up to date on league news. If not, then get up to date. Thomas Jones was a revelation for the Jets last year but the team has lost Brett Favre and Laveranues Coles on offense. As a result, Jones is almost certainly looking at a drop in production. Second, avoid falling in love with certain players. Follow your tiers (more on that below) and don’t reach for a player. Third, try to fill out your starting line-up before moving on to filling your bench spots. After all, bench points don’t count except in leagues where they settle ties.

In one of my dynasty leagues, the owners place tremendous value on running backs so the wide receivers are great values. In three years, the only stud running back I’ve had is Joseph Addai and that is because I picked him up as a rookie.

2. Have A Flexible Strategy

Whatever your strategy is heading into your draft, you need to be prepared to alter it if the draft does not turn out as you expected. If you had anticipated getting a solid running back with the 11th pick and running backs come off the board with the first 10 picks, then it’s time to change gears. Rather than take an injury prone Brandon Jacobs or a banged up Brian Westbrook, consider taking your top rated QB or Larry Fitzgerald, the consensus top WR, before getting a running back .

In snake drafts, many owners attempt to map out their first three picks. Some follow the two-stud running back approach, while others may want a tier one player at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. In many instances, it’s possible that the draft will flow in a manner that results in an owner being able to follow their strategy. However, if that doesn’t occur, you need to be flexible and move on. It’s better to be flexible than being rigid and following a strategy that nets you Ryan Grant instead of Larry Fitzgerald just because you were set on taking running backs with your first two picks.

3. Follow Your Tiers

The concept of tiering is invaluable in a fantasy draft or auction. The concept is basically to tier (group) players at each position based on similar anticipated production. For example, in 2009 the top tier of QB consists of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. At RB, the top tier consists of Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Matt Forte.

As your draft or auction proceeds, you then have an idea of where the value lies. If the top tier of running backs is gone, it might be time to target a top tier WR or QB. Once the top tier of QB, RB and WR are exhausted, perhaps it’s time to target a top tier TE.

Essentially, an owner that drafts according to his tiers is less likely to overpay for a certain player. Plus, if the last player in a tier is available at your pick, you know to take that player.

In auction leagues, tiering can be very useful if you are aware of the status of the other team’s rosters. For instance, assume that in a 10-team league, four teams need starting QB and there are five tier three QB available. There is no need to overpay for the first three or four QB put up for auction. Wait for the other nine teams to fill out their starter position and then get one of the remaining tier two QB cheaply because the other teams are not likely to overpay for a backup QB.

Alternatively, if four teams need a starter and only three tier two QB are available, then you likely want to get the first or second player put up for auction because there will be two teams battling to get the final tier two QB, thereby driving up the auction cost.

4. Look Ahead And Anticipate The Flow Of Your Draft

In snake drafts, the flow of the draft will generally result in runs on players, roughly based on tiers to the extent owners have similar rankings. After the first QB is chosen, there is the possibility that the entire first tier of QB may go quickly after. As the group of tier one WR dwindles, there could be a run on these players.

Because of this, it’s important to spend as much of your downtime during the draft focusing on your opponents’ rosters as on your own roster. If you have an idea that there will be a run on tier one WR prior to your next pick, you can be ready to perhaps take the top TE available. Alternatively, if there are a number of tier two RB available at your pick but you anticipate there won’t be a top tier WR available with your pick next, perhaps you may want to grab the WR now.

In auction leagues, there is a definite ebb and flow that transpires during the course of the auction whether it is in dynasty or non-dynasty leagues. Generally, teams will focus the early part of the draft acquiring high priced talent thereby reducing their ability to spend later in the draft. At a certain point after teams have spent a decent amount of their auction dollars, they take a breather and it is at this point that values become available. After they re-enter the fray and complete filling out their rosters, there is another point where values become available. In 2008, this was when the likes of Thomas Jones, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels became available.

Last year, in one auction dynasty league, I nabbed Steve Smith for $46 and Brandon Marshall for $47 during a lull in the proceedings after another owner had spent $70 on Terrell Owens. In this league, $70 for Owens wasn’t a bad deal and certainly wasn’t a precedent but obviously Smith and Marshall were better values.

5. Don’t Ignore The Rap Sheet

For most of us, the cup is half full as opposed to half empty. We want to believe that player X will bust out, player Y will bounce back and player Z will stay out of trouble. In 2008, DeAngelo Williams busted out, Kurt Warner bounced back and Antonio Bryant stayed out of trouble. Unfortunately, Marshawn Lynch didn’t bust out, Roy Williams didn’t bounce back and Larry Johnson didn’t stay out of trouble.

Analyzing the common denominators of certain players who underachieve isn’t too difficult. Players with attitude and criminal issues should carry a red flag and be ranked lower than they would otherwise be. Bryant is a perfect example. He was a huge surprise as the 8th ranked fantasy WR in 2008 which would warrant him being drafted in the 3rd round in 2009. However, he lost his QB and complained about receiving the franchise tag and getting an $8-million one-year contract as opposed to a long-term extension.

There’s nothing wrong with taking players of questionable character but there are two rules when you do so. Don’t reach for these players and never have too many of them on your roster. Otherwise, you will be carrying substantial risk heading into your fantasy football season.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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