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Preliminary 2016 Tight End Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 8, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Rob Gronkowski

Some small red flags and up-and-coming talent at the position might be closing the gap between Rob Gronkowski and the field, but he still stands alone in Tier 1 at TE for now.

Lets close out the week with preliminary redraft tight end tiers for the 2016 fantasy football season. This concludes our collection of offensive skill position tiers after posting quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers the prior three days.

Note again the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

We will publish detailed player projections, rankings and commentary plus updates over the next two plus months leading up to the start of the NFL regular season. Feel free to post your comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2

Coby Fleener
Greg Olsen
Jordan Reed
Travis Kelce

Tier 3

Delanie Walker
Gary Barnidge
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Tyler Eifert
Zach Ertz

Tier 4

Antonio Gates
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Benjamin Watson
Dwayne Allen
Eric Ebron
Jason Witten
Jordan Cameron
Ladarius Green
Martellus Bennett

Tier 5

Charles Clay
Clive Walford
Jacob Tamme
Kyle Rudolph
Richard Rodgers
Vance McDonald
Will Tye
Zach Miller

Tier 6

Cameron Brate
Darren Fells
Jace Amaro
Jeff Heuerman
Lance Kendricks
Ryan Griffin
Tyler Kroft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Top Rookie Tight Ends—Potential Immediate Impact from Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams

May 19, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

While we typically don't expect much fantasy production from rookie tight ends, Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams has an opportunity to make an early impact.

While we typically don’t expect much fantasy production from rookie tight ends, Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams has an opportunity to make an early impact.

When someone mentions the 2014 Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots, what immediately comes to mind? Do not say Deflategate!

As a fantasy football player the first thing I think of is Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski (Gronk) is the best tight end in the game. He is an absolute beast, worthy of a touchdown dance called the “Gronk Smash”.

Gronk is in an elite tight end tier by himself, while Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen are a tier below. Beyond those three guys, the tight end position is a bit of a toss up for fantasy production. Tight ends take more time to develop than most positions, and even a player who is very valuable to his team may spend more time blocking than catching passes.

Although history shows tight ends do not produce relevant fantasy stats their rookie year (2014 top rookie tight ends Eric Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins scored a combined 54 points in standard scoring leagues), with NFL teams and coaching staffs searching for and pushing to create the next Gronk, you never know when someone may breakout.

Here is my list of top rookie tight ends for 2015:

1. Maxx Williams, Ravens

Clearly the best tight end taken in the 2015 NFL Draft, Maxx Williams goes to the Baltimore Ravens. With Dennis Pitta coming off his second hip injury, it is very uncertain if he’ll be ready at the start of the NFL season. That being said, it was very clear the Ravens were planning on adding a tight end during the draft regardless of Pitta’s status. The Ravens like to use one tight end who plays as a threat up the seam or in the flat. New Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, during his tenure in Chicago, relied heavily on tight end Martellus Bennett, with Bennett finishing in the Top 5 tight ends in 2014. The main competition for Williams is Crockett Gillmore. Any positive showings in the passing game from Williams during mini-camp and preseason could land him a starting position. With quarterback Joe Flacco constantly looking at the tight end as a check-down option, Williams should have a bright future with the Ravens, and perhaps even make an immediate impact as a rookie.

2. Clive Walford, Raiders

Chalk up another young weapon to the Oakland Raiders. Wide receiver Amari Cooper should gobble up targets and catches from sophomore quarterback Derek Carr, however, the Raiders offer Clive Walford the opportunity to become an integral part of their offense for the next few years. Many compare Walford to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen. I believe Walford has more upside and athleticism in terms of pass catching. Mychal Rivera had a decent year in 2014 with Carr, however, there is much room for improvement at the tight end position and Walford has an opportunity to fill that void. With the Raiders still limited in offensive weapons, Walford might see a fair share of targets from Carr, making Walford a good investment for future years.

3. Jesse James, Steelers

With arguably the best fantasy wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for more weapons to help spread the defense out. Veteran Steelers tight end Heath Miller is aging quickly, so Pittsburgh invested in Jesse James in the 2015 NFL Draft. Although Miller is getting older, he still was able to produce a Top 10 fantasy performance in 2014. James still has some development to work on, but he can offer quarterback Ben Roethlisberger an additional weapon in the red zone with his large size (6’7”). James’ price in fantasy drafts is extremely cheap, so his potential to surpass Miller makes for a worthy investment in dynasty leagues.

4. Tyler Kroft, Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals are in need for a consistent, healthy tight end. The Bengals’ first “Tyler” at the position, 2013 rookie draft pick Tyler Eifert, is close to being considered a bust. His rookie season was a typical rookie tight end season with 39 receptions for 445 yards and two touchdowns. In 2014, Eifert suffered a dislocated elbow in the first game of the season and was out the remainder of the year. The Bengals haven’t seen much production from Eifert for their investment. Tyler Kroft is an all-around complete athlete who could have a better pro career than his modest college stats suggest. With the Bengals affinity to run two tight end formations, Kroft should see the field quickly with a chance to earn valuable targets in the red zone.

5. A.J. Derby, Patriots

Any tight end playing with quarterback Tom Brady and opposite Gronk has a chance for success. A.J. Derby might not see the field immediately but Gronk sees double coverage every play and the wide receivers for the New England Patriots have not been spectacular, so the opportunity for a tight end to thrive in this offense is there. Derby is a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues.

Top 2015 Rookies Series

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Defensive Players

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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