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Buy and Sell Advice for Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Justin Verlander

April 2, 2018 By Giles Clasen 1 Comment

Byron Buxton

It is early but Giles advice is sell Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. He will not get enough plate appearances batting in the bottom of the order to make the fantasy impact expected of a Top 75 draft pick.

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Toronto is paying more to players sitting in the hospital or on the bench than some smaller market clubs are paying their entire team. This has created some interesting fantasy options, if you navigate it correctly. Troy Tulowitzki is on the 60-day DL and Josh Donaldson can’t throw a ball due to the ominous sounding injury – dead arm.

Your reminder: This corner belongs to @BringerOfRain20. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/YBDiNWfElN

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 29, 2018

Dead arm is a shoulder ailment usually associated with pitchers not fielders. This injury has been nagging Donaldson throughout spring training, although it really came to light Opening Day, and it is worrisome that he hasn’t been able recover.

Donaldson is a major concern because he was drafted in the third round and is already hurt. I often wish in a case like this the team would put the player on the DL and let him heal. Long term that would give you better fantasy numbers. Instead Toronto moved Donaldson to DH.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold on to Donaldson for now and hope he recovers and gives you the season you invested in. If you try and sell you are going to get pennies on the dollar. I wouldn’t look to buy either, as I don’t have faith Donaldson will rebound over the short term and I am unsure of his long term prognosis.

Yangervis Solarte, TOR

The big winner as a result of the injury troubles in Toronto is Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has always been a better real baseball player than a fantasy option, but he showed promise in San Diego in 2016 slashing .286/.341/.467.

An oblique injury in 2017 sidelined him for a month and slowed his growth. Solarte also struggled to get the ball over the fence in Petco Park, one of the worst batters parks out there. I was intrigued when the Blue Jays gave up two valuable prospects to acquire Solarte. With all the injuries Solarte will likely bat cleanup and offers multi-position flexibility.

Rogers Centre isn’t known as a great home run park but will be a big step up from Petco. Solarte hit his first home run on Saturday and already drove in a couple of RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
He is 76 percent owned in CBS leagues, but I imagine his owners don’t know what they have. Look to add him for the short term, especially if you need to replace Ian Kinsler or haven’t yet found a viable spot holder for Daniel Murphy.

Byron Buxton, MIN

Byron Buxton is batting 8th right now, and that should worry all Buxton owners. He is batting far lower in the order than any other batter with a Top 75 average draft position. If Buxton doesn’t move up in the order soon then you overpaid for him.

The only way a player can hit home runs, steal bases and drive in runs is to get up to bat. That is opportunity, and opportunity is very valuable for fantasy baseball success.

Guys who bat at the bottom of the order lose plate appearances. Joe Douglas at RotoGraphs calculated that each drop in the order costs a player 14 PA over a season. To realize how much it hurts a player, understand that a player batting eighth loses at least 100 plate appearances during the season when compared to the heart of the lineup.

So Buxton faces a greater uphill battle to fantasy superstardom than just stealing bases and hitting home runs. The only way Buxton moves up in the lineup is to cut his K-rate and increase his on-base percentage

He isn’t off to a great start, striking out 4 times in his first 11 trips to the plate. I think Buxton can do enough to jump Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar in the order, but it is a stretch to assume Buxton will take over leadoff duties this year, an ideal position for someone with Buxton’s speed.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I would look to sell any shares you have while the optimists look past the looming troubles. If you’re lucky you may be able to trade Buxton for Tommy Pham or Whit Merrifield. Both have lower ceilings than Buxton, but are batting second and have a higher floor.

Javier Baez, CHC

The Cubs played a 17 inning game Friday night. If they do that often enough the Cubs will have enough at-bats for all their players. That is the best hope you have for getting the numbers you expected from Javier Baez. Assuming the Cubs play mostly the more traditional nine inning games then Baez faces the same dilemma as Buxton.

Playing for the Cubs is a blessing and a curse. Baez plays for a very good Cubs team and every guy in the lineup hits and gets on base. By virtue of being a Cub, Baez drove in 75 RBI and scored 75 times in 2017. Baez also showed enough power and speed to hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bags.

However, I am not sure if Baez can repeat those numbers. The biggest problem Baez faces is plate appearances. The Cubs have too many players deserving of every day at-bats. Joe Maddon did a great job utilizing each player last year, but finding AB for Baez, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward isn’t easy.

Happ offers the most potential and will see the most playing time. This really hurts Baez in fantasy, because he loses 20 or more starts this year. He sat on Saturday so Zobrist could get a day at second base. This will be a regular occurrence all season.

Baez further hurts himself with a 28 percent strikeout rate and .276 OBP. On Opening Day Maddon slotted Baez in as the 8th batter and that isn’t likely to change unless he can get on base more regularly. As noted with Buxton, the lower a player bats in the order the fewer PA they receive over a season.

When you combine the position competition with his low place in the order, Baez becomes a guy you don’t want on your team. It isn’t difficult imagining Baez only getting 500 AB. If this happens he could score 15 fewer runs and drive in 15 fewer RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
Baez has strong name recognition and looked good last year, so it isn’t too late to trade him away. It may be a reach, but I would offer Baez for Rich Hill or Trevor Bauer and then pick up the earlier mentioned Solarte or Tim Anderson off the waiver wire to fill your middle infield position. Anderson is off to a quick start and only 50 percent owned in CBS leagues at the time of writing this.

Justin Verlander, HOU

Justin Verlander had a good start on Opening Day. He didn’t allow any runs through six innings of work, while striking out five in a respectable 90 pitches. Several analysts had Verlander slotted as a bust this year. Both SI and Rotoballer cited Verlander’s 2017 xFIP as an omen of things to come. However, recall there was a night and day difference in Verlander’s stats between his Detroit and Houston games last year.

In 2017, Verlander’s first half xFIP was an unattractive 5.03, but his second half dropped to 3.28. Few pitchers improve as the season rolls along, so Verlander’s numbers are notable. Verlander talked often about Houston’s advanced analytics helping him improve, and Houston’s brain trust was hard at work when they used that wild shift against Joey Gallo.

I think we may see Verlander’s best season since 2011. Verlander wasn’t perfect in his first start, but with Houston’s talent backing him up in the field and driving in runs at the plate we may see Verlander’s first 20 win season in 7 years. That will be accompanied with the usual strike outs and a sub-3.50 ERA.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
His price may be higher now than draft day, but if you are looking to trade for an ace then Verlander could still have the lowest price out there. If you own him then hold tight. You can sleep well knowing you acquired a 35-year-old starting pitcher who looks more robot than man these days.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Berkman, Tulowitzki, Justin Upton

April 15, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

It is still early in the season as teams continue to yo-yo up and down the standings in your fantasy league. Stay the course – mostly – and take note of the players who are over and underperforming expectations.

 
Stock Up

Lance Berkman, 1B/OF, STL – Berkman has found the fountain of youth in the Gateway City. Over the last dozen years, several players have come to St. Louis and find one last hurrah at the end of a strong career, such as Larry Walker, Tino Martinez, and Will Clark. Berkman is adding his name to that list for the time being, hitting .286/4HR/10RBI/5R in the last week. Ride him for now, but chasing fly balls out in right field will wear him down as the season goes on.

Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL – As long as he stays healthy, a lot is expected of Tulowitzki. His monstrous September seems to have flowed into April as he’s hit .381/3/9/5 over the last week. Little seems to be able to stop him right now. Can he stay away from the disabled list in 2011? It is still early, and I’m still concerned about his ability to avoid injury.

Prince Fielder, 1B, MIL – It looks like the big fellow is taking this contract season thing pretty seriously. Fielder has blistered .500/3/11/3 over the last week. If he keeps anything close to this up, he’ll attract a lot of attention in free agency.

Chris Young, OF, ARI – Young is hitting on all cylinders. He is typically a great source of speed and power at the cost of batting average, but that isn’t a problem for him right now. Young has hit .346/3/9/8 over the last week and seems to be primed for more of the same. He might finally have found the secret to hitting without seeing the average hanging around .250, but don’t go crazy and expect him to end up at .300.

Justin Upton, OF, ARI – Young’s teammate is also surging. Upton struggled last season due to injury but seems to be healthy hitting .409/2/5/8 with a stolen base in the last week. Look for a return to the strong season that he put up in 2009.

Matt Kemp, OF, LAD – Kemp also slumped badly in 2010 and there have been a lot of questions about his desire to always play at his best. If the last week is any indication, Kemp seems very motivated as he’s posted .524/0/3/4 with six steals.

Brian Fuentes, RP, OAK – Five saves in seven days is quite a week for a guy who was a setup guy just a few weeks ago. Fuentes also struck out six while not giving up a run during that stretch. Andrew Bailey will get the closer role back when he returns from the DL, but enjoy Fuentes for now.

 
Stock Down

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – Ramirez is still struggling. The consensus number two fantasy player has posted a .200 average with two ribbies over the last week. That is tough to swallow, but maybe his owner is getting nervous so this could be a good time to make him an offer as the cold streak will end and the real Han-Ram will emerge.

Carl Crawford, OF, BOS – Crawford is the leader of the ineptness of the Boston offense to start the season. He’s not the only Red Sox player scuffling, but has only a .111 average and two runs to show for the high expectations during the week.

Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS – Crawford’s teammate Gonzalez is hitting equally poor. Hitting .190/0/2/2 over the week is not what the Red Sox thought they would get from his bat when they traded for him over the winter. Don’t worry, because A-Gone and Crawford will both rebound in strong fashion.

Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY – Teixeira is a notoriously slow starter. He has even admitted that he doesn’t prepare during spring training as if he was trying to play his best right out of the gate. He claims that he would rather hit his peak late in the season and that he is merely building his way there. He’s obviously not wasting any energy here in April as he has only hit .111/0/0/2 during the week.

Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA – Hernandez put up a dud on Monday, giving up seven runs on 10 hits against the Toronto Blue Jays. This isn’t likely to happen again this season and expect a strong rebound in his next start coming against the Kansas City Royals. There is nothing to worry about here.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL – Jimenez gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, on Opening Day and then hit the DL. His rehab start was a good one and a return Monday is likely. His home/road splits were very dramatic last season, so look carefully at the opponent and venue for all road games that Jimenez pitches.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Second Base and Shortstop Rankings

March 8, 2011 By Rick 3 Comments

Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy BaseballWe kicked off our big rankings week yesterday with the corner infield, first and third base. Now let’s turn our attention to the typically weaker overall infield spots for fantasy output, down the middle at second base and shortstop. Of course with the likes of Hanley Ramirez and Robinson Cano, there is no saying you can’t build your team around one of these stud hitters. You’ll earn a big position advantage over your league mates if you do.

 
Tier 1

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – Han-Ram is the total fantasy package. He plays at a premium position, has power and speed, scores runs and hits for average. He’s the only player to possibly consider for the number one overall pick other than Albert Pujols.

 
Tier 2

2. Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY – Cano finally lived up to the hype that New York built for him. His breakthrough season in 2010 has put him in the top tier of fantasy second basemen. He is probably going to be available through the middle of the first round, but will get snapped up quickly after that. For a mid-to-late first round pick, you should get .320/27/97 from the keystone position for your troubles.

3. Jose Reyes, SS, NYM – Reyes will try to get back into the group of elite middle infielders after a less than Reyes-like prior two seasons. Reyes has pop in his bat and speed in his legs. Unfortunately, that speed might not be as good as it was a few years ago as Reyes missed considerable time in 2009 and 2010 with a variety of injuries, including a hamstring injury that never seemed to heal. Since this is a contract season expect big things as he auditions for other teams. Perhaps he’ll even play through nagging injuries.

4. Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX – Kinsler stumbled in 2010 as the injury bug bit two months out of his season, but this came as no surprise since he’s played more than 130 games only once in his five Major League seasons. He is always going to be a risk to miss time, but when healthy Kinsler is a fantasy stud.

5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL – Tulowitzki is my most controversial ranking this season, and it isn’t that I don’t like the guy but based on his history he appears to be an ongoing injury risk. He’s only had one 600+ at-bat season in his career. If he can stay healthy, he could be ready for elite fantasy baseball status. A .289/22/83/9 season is realistic at about 500 AB but if he can go for 600, which are very long odds, he could hit about 26 bombs and drive in around 100. A player who can do that from the ultra-thin shortstop position is a real find. Just make sure you back him up with a solid player for when the first injury hits.
 
Tier 3

6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS – Pedroia is good at a lot of things, but not great at any one particular area. If he can stay healthy this season, look for a .313/14/68/13 line with 106 runs scored in the potent Red Sox lineup.

7. Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla will struggle with the glove but not with the bat for his new team. Uggla has put up five straight seasons of 27 or more homers. This year will be no different and he’ll add close to 100 ribbies to go with it. The batting average will hurt a little but you can live with that when this kind of power comes from a second baseman that you can draft in the fourth round.

8. Chase Utley, 2B, PHI – Utley was the elite second baseman in fantasy baseball, but ongoing injury concerns drop him down the ranks. He still hits for power and average and can steal bases. He is struggling with injuries for a second consecutive season and his bothersome knee is reason to let him be someone else’s headache this year. He’s not worth the high draft pick it will cost to acquire him, so stay away.

9. Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI – Rollins is another speedy middle infielder trying to come back from an injury that derailed his 2010 season. He should make you proud with a .262/16/68/39 line, as he is playing for his next contract. You can probably get Rollins in the late third round or maybe early fourth as many have lost faith in his ability to play when dinged up.

10. Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN – Phillips seems to be showing a little age, but a .276/17/79/14 season is a positive contribution for your fantasy squad. Don’t reach too high for him as there are others who can provide similar numbers available a few rounds later.

 
Tier 4

11. Derek Jeter, SS, NYY – For all the love Yankee fans give him and all the hate showered on him by the anti-Yankee fans, this guy just keeps on plugging along. He’s 37 this season, but should still provide you with .274/12/67/18 and 102 runs scored. If he finds the newest meddling Steinbrenner to be a motivating factor, a better season is quite possible. Unfortunately, his reputation will cost you a fourth round draft pick to acquire him.

12. Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL – Weeks finally had a breakthrough season and looks to improve upon it. He will put up similar stats this season, but probably not quite as good as last season because his BABIP is a little higher than it seems he can sustain. He’s being drafted in the third round, which is a round or two above his worth, so wait him out a bit.

13. Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR – Hill is yet another middle infielder coming off an injury plagued 2010 season. He put things together in the famed, “age 27 season” in 2009, and looks to return to that glory with something around .256/31/88. Due to his porous season last year, many have lost faith in Hill and he is being drafted in the twelfth round. Grab him a round or two early and enjoy that power.

14. Howie Kendrick, 2B, LAA – Kendrick is still looking for the long-awaited break out season. This is the famed “age 27 season” for him but this won’t be the year he puts it all together. He will put a nice batting average together with some ribbies, but the power may never be more than it is. Look for a .295/11/80/16 season for a guy who can be had in the early-to-mid teens in your draft.

15. Kelly Johnson, 2B, ARI – Johnson’s power broke through in 2010 with 26 taters. That was quite a season for a guy who never showed that kind of power before. Johnson is more like a .283/18/69/11 guy. Since he’s going in rounds eight to ten on average, he might not be worth that price.

 
Tier 5

16. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE
17. Stephen Drew, SS, ARZ
18. Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS
19. Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX
20. Brian Roberts, 2B, BAL
21. Rafael Furcal, SS, LAD
22. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, 2B, MIN
23. Neil Walker, 2B, PIT
24. Chone Figgins, 2B/3B, SEA
25. Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS DET
26. Gordon Beckham, 2B, CWS
27. Ian Desmond, SS, WAS
28. Ryan Theriot, 2B/SS, STL
29. Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS
30. Omar Infante, 2B/3B, FLA
31. Orlando Hudson, 2B, SD
32. Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
33. Jason Bartlett, SS, SD

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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