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Buy and Sell Advice for Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Justin Verlander

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Byron Buxton

It is early but Giles advice is sell Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. He will not get enough plate appearances batting in the bottom of the order to make the fantasy impact expected of a Top 75 draft pick.

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Toronto is paying more to players sitting in the hospital or on the bench than some smaller market clubs are paying their entire team. This has created some interesting fantasy options, if you navigate it correctly. Troy Tulowitzki is on the 60-day DL and Josh Donaldson can’t throw a ball due to the ominous sounding injury – dead arm.

Dead arm is a shoulder ailment usually associated with pitchers not fielders. This injury has been nagging Donaldson throughout spring training, although it really came to light Opening Day, and it is worrisome that he hasn’t been able recover.

Donaldson is a major concern because he was drafted in the third round and is already hurt. I often wish in a case like this the team would put the player on the DL and let him heal. Long term that would give you better fantasy numbers. Instead Toronto moved Donaldson to DH.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold on to Donaldson for now and hope he recovers and gives you the season you invested in. If you try and sell you are going to get pennies on the dollar. I wouldn’t look to buy either, as I don’t have faith Donaldson will rebound over the short term and I am unsure of his long term prognosis.

Yangervis Solarte, TOR

The big winner as a result of the injury troubles in Toronto is Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has always been a better real baseball player than a fantasy option, but he showed promise in San Diego in 2016 slashing .286/.341/.467.

An oblique injury in 2017 sidelined him for a month and slowed his growth. Solarte also struggled to get the ball over the fence in Petco Park, one of the worst batters parks out there. I was intrigued when the Blue Jays gave up two valuable prospects to acquire Solarte. With all the injuries Solarte will likely bat cleanup and offers multi-position flexibility.

Rogers Centre isn’t known as a great home run park but will be a big step up from Petco. Solarte hit his first home run on Saturday and already drove in a couple of RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
He is 76 percent owned in CBS leagues, but I imagine his owners don’t know what they have. Look to add him for the short term, especially if you need to replace Ian Kinsler or haven’t yet found a viable spot holder for Daniel Murphy.

Byron Buxton, MIN

Byron Buxton is batting 8th right now, and that should worry all Buxton owners. He is batting far lower in the order than any other batter with a Top 75 average draft position. If Buxton doesn’t move up in the order soon then you overpaid for him.

The only way a player can hit home runs, steal bases and drive in runs is to get up to bat. That is opportunity, and opportunity is very valuable for fantasy baseball success.

Guys who bat at the bottom of the order lose plate appearances. Joe Douglas at RotoGraphs calculated that each drop in the order costs a player 14 PA over a season. To realize how much it hurts a player, understand that a player batting eighth loses at least 100 plate appearances during the season when compared to the heart of the lineup.

So Buxton faces a greater uphill battle to fantasy superstardom than just stealing bases and hitting home runs. The only way Buxton moves up in the lineup is to cut his K-rate and increase his on-base percentage

He isn’t off to a great start, striking out 4 times in his first 11 trips to the plate. I think Buxton can do enough to jump Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar in the order, but it is a stretch to assume Buxton will take over leadoff duties this year, an ideal position for someone with Buxton’s speed.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I would look to sell any shares you have while the optimists look past the looming troubles. If you’re lucky you may be able to trade Buxton for Tommy Pham or Whit Merrifield. Both have lower ceilings than Buxton, but are batting second and have a higher floor.

Javier Baez, CHC

The Cubs played a 17 inning game Friday night. If they do that often enough the Cubs will have enough at-bats for all their players. That is the best hope you have for getting the numbers you expected from Javier Baez. Assuming the Cubs play mostly the more traditional nine inning games then Baez faces the same dilemma as Buxton.

Playing for the Cubs is a blessing and a curse. Baez plays for a very good Cubs team and every guy in the lineup hits and gets on base. By virtue of being a Cub, Baez drove in 75 RBI and scored 75 times in 2017. Baez also showed enough power and speed to hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bags.

However, I am not sure if Baez can repeat those numbers. The biggest problem Baez faces is plate appearances. The Cubs have too many players deserving of every day at-bats. Joe Maddon did a great job utilizing each player last year, but finding AB for Baez, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward isn’t easy.

Happ offers the most potential and will see the most playing time. This really hurts Baez in fantasy, because he loses 20 or more starts this year. He sat on Saturday so Zobrist could get a day at second base. This will be a regular occurrence all season.

Baez further hurts himself with a 28 percent strikeout rate and .276 OBP. On Opening Day Maddon slotted Baez in as the 8th batter and that isn’t likely to change unless he can get on base more regularly. As noted with Buxton, the lower a player bats in the order the fewer PA they receive over a season.

When you combine the position competition with his low place in the order, Baez becomes a guy you don’t want on your team. It isn’t difficult imagining Baez only getting 500 AB. If this happens he could score 15 fewer runs and drive in 15 fewer RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
Baez has strong name recognition and looked good last year, so it isn’t too late to trade him away. It may be a reach, but I would offer Baez for Rich Hill or Trevor Bauer and then pick up the earlier mentioned Solarte or Tim Anderson off the waiver wire to fill your middle infield position. Anderson is off to a quick start and only 50 percent owned in CBS leagues at the time of writing this.

Justin Verlander, HOU

Justin Verlander had a good start on Opening Day. He didn’t allow any runs through six innings of work, while striking out five in a respectable 90 pitches. Several analysts had Verlander slotted as a bust this year. Both SI and Rotoballer cited Verlander’s 2017 xFIP as an omen of things to come. However, recall there was a night and day difference in Verlander’s stats between his Detroit and Houston games last year.

In 2017, Verlander’s first half xFIP was an unattractive 5.03, but his second half dropped to 3.28. Few pitchers improve as the season rolls along, so Verlander’s numbers are notable. Verlander talked often about Houston’s advanced analytics helping him improve, and Houston’s brain trust was hard at work when they used that wild shift against Joey Gallo.

I think we may see Verlander’s best season since 2011. Verlander wasn’t perfect in his first start, but with Houston’s talent backing him up in the field and driving in runs at the plate we may see Verlander’s first 20 win season in 7 years. That will be accompanied with the usual strike outs and a sub-3.50 ERA.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
His price may be higher now than draft day, but if you are looking to trade for an ace then Verlander could still have the lowest price out there. If you own him then hold tight. You can sleep well knowing you acquired a 35-year-old starting pitcher who looks more robot than man these days.

Fantasy Baseball 2013 Consensus Top Prospects

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One of my favorite tasks prepping for the upcoming fantasy baseball season is compiling my consensus top prospects list, a ranking of the next best players in baseball. This is the fourth year publishing the list. Feel free to go back and check the top prospects from 2010, 2011 and 2012, and you’ll quickly see what a major impact these players have on the fantasy baseball landscape today. The top of this list are the guys you want to build your deep keeper and dynasty league fantasy baseball teams around for years to come.

This year I used 14 publicly available “top 100” prospect lists to form the basis of my list, although there were changes to the lists included in the consensus from last year. Players had to be named on at least seven of the lists to make the final cut. Players were given 100 points for a 1st place listing, 99 points for second, 98 for third and on and on down to 1 point for a selection as number 100.

Each list that formed the consensus is identified in the key below. Each player’s score for that list is indicated and their average is listed last. Scores are based on the number of lists they appear. I realize this simple system has the potential to skew the results of those picked on fewer lists, but overall it provides a good snapshot of the guys you should target for your rosters.

 

Player
 BA BP CBS DL KL MLB PP 361 SC SB S2S TBH TDG TPA AVG
1. SS Jurickson Profar, TEX
 100 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 99.9
2. RHP Dylan Bundy, BAL
 99 97 96 97 98 99 99 98 100 98 99 99 97 99 98.2
3. OF Oscar Taveras, STL
 98 99 95 99 99 98 98 99 98 97 93 97 99 97 97.6
4. OF Wil Myers, TB
 97 94 100 98 97 97 96 97 95 99 97 98 96 98 97.1
5. RHP Gerrit Cole, PIT
 94 98 92 95 93 92 97 96 97 96 92 94 93 95 94.6
6. RHP Taijuan Walker, SEA
 83 92 81 91 92 96 88 91 96 95 94 93 90 87 90.6
7. SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS
 93 89 89 96 96 81 95 90 74 89 91 96 95 86 90
8. RHP Zack Wheeler, NYM
 90 96 91 87 88 93 89 93 84 84 96 79 94 91 89.6
9. RHP Jose Fernandez, MIA
 96 95 84 93 85 94 93 92 80 87 95 80 87 94 89.6
10. RHP Shelby Miller, STL
 95 85 98 94 80 76 90 95 83 86 84 89 92 96 88.8
11. 3B Miguel Sano, MIN
 92 80 90 86 90 89 92 85 85 90 98 84 83 92 88.3
12. C Travis d’Arnaud, NYM
 78 86 97 85 87 95 80 88 93 92 86 85 91 76 87.1
13. RHP Jameson Taillon, PIT
 82 90 80 88 81 86 87 89 94 93 79 91 86 85 86.5
14. RHP Trevor Bauer, CLE
 87 77 85 90 76 84 94 78 86 91 88 95 80 84 85.4
15. LHP Tyler Skaggs, ARI
 89 84 77 83 89 91 86 84 88 83 85 86 78 90 85.2
16. SS Billy Hamilton, CIN
 81 87 94 81 71 90 75 94 75 94 77 90 98 80 84.8
17. OF Christian Yelich, MIA
 86 78 82 82 95 88 83 83 87 85 82 82 76 73 83
18. SS Javier Baez, CHC
 85 81 88 89 70 85 81 79 79 73 90 81 84 77 81.6
19. C Mike Zunino, SEA
 84 68 93 92 86 78 85 80 71 74 81 67 75 74 79.1
20. 3B Nick Castellanos, DET
 80 64 72 79 63 80 79 87 92 80 87 78 88 75 78.9
21. RHP Archie Bradley, ARI
 76 70 63 73 72 77 77 82 91 76 89 72 72 83 76.6
22. OF Jonathan Singleton, HOU
 74 76 66 80 69 74 72 74 73 72 75 70 85 78 74.1
23. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
 91 93 58 76 79 82 91 81 48 53 60 52 81 88 73.8
24. 3B Anthony Rendon, WAS
 71 66 62 65 84 73 82 86 64 77 73 68 89 70 73.6
25. 3B Mike Olt, TEX
 79 71 71 72 30 79 67 75 89 81 78 83 79 69 73.1
26. LHP Danny Hultzen, SEA
 72 51 74 71 35 83 69 64 90 88 83 92 71 79 73
27. SS Carlos Correa, HOU
 88 75 0 78 77 71 84 77 77 79 62 74 82 93 72.6
28. SS Francisco Lindor, CLE
 73 91 0 61 94 87 78 57 82 78 80 76 41 81 69.9
29. RHP Kevin Gausman, BAL
 75 88 61 77 75 64 74 55 59 71 47 69 50 82 67.6
30. RHP Carlos Martinez, STL
 63 58 64 62 62 68 68 70 63 75 57 87 69 60 66.1
31. OF Jorge Soler, CHC
 67 65 68 69 59 59 62 45 34 69 67 56 74 62 61.1
32. OF Jackie Bradley, BOS
 70 74 83 57 61 69 60 72 53 58 59 28 37 66 60.5
33. RHP Julio Teheran, ATL
 57 49 76 38 73 70 66 43 69 82 31 88 38 65 60.4
34. OF George Springer, HOU
 64 46 69 60 58 44 58 52 76 52 74 49 66 61 59.2
35. RHP Matt Barnes, BOS
 61 63 60 56 22 63 70 40 70 55 71 55 65 64 58.2
36. 3B Addison Russell, OAK
 53 79 0 70 91 53 71 62 61 56 55 41 67 56 58.2
37. OF Bubba Starling, KC
 66 52 0 44 56 75 52 36 66 68 76 75 55 68 56.4
38. OF Albert Almora, CHC
 68 83 0 54 68 62 65 65 65 57 56 33 30 67 55.2
39. RHP Kyle Zimmer, KC
 77 60 0 34 74 67 73 53 68 64 18 37 54 89 54.9
40. C Gary Sanchez, NYY
 44 54 0 68 83 65 54 67 72 34 68 66 46 41 54.4
41. OF Mason Williams, NYY
 69 50 0 40 66 60 56 76 58 62 50 51 49 71 54.1
42. RHP Aaron Sanchez, TOR
 36 69 0 66 82 66 76 38 52 49 70 0 62 55 51.5
43. RHP Noah Syndergaard, NYM
 47 73 0 74 4 72 40 46 55 54 63 59 45 57 49.2
44. SS Alen Hanson, PIT
 40 35 65 63 67 47 32 73 47 31 36 25 63 31 46.8
45. 3B Jedd Gyorko, SD
 30 17 86 49 31 51 50 42 50 65 26 57 60 33 46.2
46. RHP Trevor Rosenthal, STL
 62 56 70 75 43 58 64 26 32 29 33 0 47 43 45.6
47. 3B Nolan Arenado, COL
 49 44 67 10 0 39 55 7 67 70 46 64 58 58 45.3
48. RHP Chris Archer, TB
 65 72 59 43 48 55 47 0 42 66 21 20 59 36 45.2
49. OF David Dahl, COL
 48 61 0 59 64 43 42 71 41 42 23 18 53 52 44.1
50. RHP Taylor Guerrieri, TB
 39 53 0 67 54 57 49 63 30 7 72 19 43 17 40.7
51. OF Oswaldo Arcia, MIN
 60 41 56 51 42 8 46 49 9 51 8 39 64 46 40.7
52. RHP Robert Stephenson, CIN
 45 23 0 84 53 50 48 37 60 38 42 0 28 59 40.5
53. RHP Jake Odorizzi, TB
 9 18 0 36 33 56 53 60 56 59 69 71 27 18 40.4
54. OF Jake Marisnick, MIA
 37 30 0 0 19 31 30 66 81 60 45 54 42 42 38.4
55. 3B Kaleb Cowart, LAA
 41 59 0 0 78 34 35 56 45 50 51 4 51 14 37
56. LHP Max Fried, SD
 55 40 0 64 50 48 45 30 33 26 11 0 61 49 36.6
57. OF Brian Goodwin, WAS
 31 27 0 27 57 49 41 59 27 20 61 0 68 40 36.2
58. RHP Alex Meyer, MIN
 42 13 0 35 40 61 43 35 40 40 53 40 29 13 34.6
59. OF Gregory Polanco, PIT
 50 57 0 55 46 36 23 69 0 0 17 23 56 53 33.5
60. RHP Casey Kelly, SD
 56 24 0 48 41 32 39 0 26 61 34 0 70 37 33.4
61. 2B Kolten Wong, STL
 17 11 73 29 5 22 61 41 44 43 35 42 33 3 32.8
62. OF Rymer Liriano, SD
 0 62 0 0 47 46 0 68 57 0 65 35 73 0 32.4
63. SS Nick Franklin, SEA
 22 29 0 46 32 54 57 4 54 67 7 58 23 0 32.4
64. 3B Tyler Austin, NYY
 24 0 0 39 49 26 13 47 39 33 20 65 57 28 31.4
65. SS Trevor Story, COL
 5 67 0 25 16 2 44 54 18 23 41 61 48 26 30.7
66. RHP Kyle Gibson, MIN
 33 37 53 0 60 52 59 13 0 22 37 27 21 11 30.4
67. C Austin Hedges, SD
 43 82 0 58 65 28 34 14 0 0 52 13 0 27 29.7
68. OF Aaron Hicks, MIN
 29 55 75 11 52 3 28 16 24 39 27 7 31 5 28.7
69. LHP Justin Nicolino, MIA
 15 28 0 47 39 29 21 0 62 46 12 50 12 32 28.1
70. OF Yasiel Puig, LAD
 54 22 0 42 0 25 51 34 10 44 32 5 39 29 27.6
71. LHP James Paxton, SEA
 14 9 0 45 0 40 20 61 19 3 64 43 36 24 27
72. OF Adam Eaton, ARI
 28 0 87 18 10 4 27 58 0 45 0 8 34 45 26
73. RHP Allen Webster, BOS
 52 32 0 14 38 30 37 44 0 18 15 0 32 48 25.7
74. RHP Kyle Crick, SF
 35 36 0 53 25 15 24 27 43 27 10 0 13 47 25.4
75. RHP Wily Peralta, MIL
 32 33 57 0 28 37 0 0 28 47 0 53 35 0 25
76. LHP Tony Cingrani, CIN
 19 10 54 0 3 35 8 11 37 48 38 45 10 25 24.5
77. RHP Lucas Giolito, WAS
 34 31 0 31 24 27 38 5 0 24 3 0 40 72 23.5
78. 2B Delino DeShields Jr., HOU
 2 0 0 33 18 0 12 51 23 2 66 0 77 16 21.4
79. RHP Daniel Straily, OAK
 0 16 78 16 0 0 0 24 35 37 29 47 9 0 20.8
80. SS Hak-Ju Lee, TB
 11 26 0 0 23 45 5 0 78 63 9 10 0 20 20.7
81. LHP Jesse Biddle, PHI
 12 34 0 52 6 41 11 50 13 5 44 0 0 19 20.5
82. LHP Martin Perez, TEX
 20 42 0 26 8 6 19 1 46 0 22 63 1 38 19.9
83. OF Courtney Hawkins, CHW
 46 0 0 0 27 33 33 29 4 0 49 0 0 44 18.9
84. RHP Yordano Ventura, KC
 16 39 0 2 0 42 22 0 15 6 28 21 15 51 18.4
85. RHP Luis Heredia, PIT
 23 48 0 5 17 0 25 0 31 11 24 0 18 54 18.3
86. RHP Michael Wacha, STL
 25 45 0 41 0 18 63 23 7 15 0 0 0 12 17.8
87. 3B Matt Davidson, ARI
 13 12 0 13 26 24 9 20 51 10 0 26 26 7 16.9
88. OF Slade Heathcott, NYY
 38 0 0 0 44 0 31 48 21 0 0 0 0 50 16.6
89. RHP Zach Lee, LAD
 0 14 0 0 34 23 0 0 49 30 58 1 0 0 14.9
90. LHP Andrew Heaney, MIA
 58 0 0 0 0 20 29 15 0 0 0 0 0 63 13.2
91. RHP Clayton Blackburn, SF
 0 6 0 50 21 0 0 39 38 0 30 0 0 0 13.1
92. OF Michael Choice, OAK
 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 28 48 48 6 6 13.1
93. SS Jonathan Schoop, BAL
 0 21 0 0 51 0 0 17 0 0 0 60 20 0 12.1
94. RHP Bruce Rondon, DET
 6 0 79 0 0 9 4 31 5 21 0 0 0 0 11.1
95. RHP Arodys Vizcaino, CHC
 18 47 0 0 37 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 39 10.6
96. OF Avisail Garcia, DET
 27 0 0 21 0 0 15 0 2 9 0 38 0 30 10.1
97. RHP Cody Buckel, TEX
 0 0 0 30 11 14 17 0 0 0 5 62 0 0 9.9
98. RHP A.J. Cole, WAS
 0 0 0 0 12 10 0 8 1 41 6 44 3 0 8.9
99. RHP Daniel Corcino, CIN
 7 0 0 6 29 0 10 0 20 4 0 46 0 0 8.7
100. RHP J.R. Graham, ATL
 8 38 0 0 7 0 2 18 14 25 0 0 0 10 8.7
101. RHP Jarred Cosart, HOU
 0 0 0 3 15 12 16 0 16 0 43 0 7 0 8
102. SS Dorssys Paulino, CLE
 0 5 0 0 45 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 17 23 7.1
103. OF Marcell Ozuna, MIA
 26 0 0 0 0 0 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 2 4.6
104. 3B Joey Gallo, TEX
 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 13 29 0 0 4.1
105. OF Leonys Martin , TEX
 4 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 35 0 9 0 0 3.9

 

Fantasy Baseball Prospect Series: P Trevor Bauer, Arizona Diamondbacks

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As we approach the mid-way point of Spring Training, let’s continue looking at the next wave of Major League Baseball, and fantasy baseball, stars. This series on prospects will cover a wide range of players as well as positions. We’ll cover sleepers and some of the more obvious stars of the future.

The next prospect in the series is other of the two big-time pitchers who just finished their college careers at UCLA. Property of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Trevor Bauer is the less heralded of the two Bruins, but the one who is more of a sure thing. Though former teammate Gerrit Cole of the Pittsburgh Pirates has the makings of a true ace, Bauer has all of the tools needed to be a front of the rotation pitcher and is more likely to approach his ceiling.

Bauer will draw comparisons to Tim Lincecum, based on physical and mechanical similarities. Like Lincecum, Bauer’s delivery and loose arm not only helps him hide the ball, but it also helps him add extra movement and explosiveness to each of his offerings. The motion is fluid, with little imminent danger to his elbow or shoulder. He has pitched a great deal as a young pitcher, which could cause concerns for his long term durability in a player not as dedicated to his fitness and workout routines as Bauer is. Bauer was entrusted with a very heavy workload at UCLA, going over 125 pitches on 10 separate occasions in his last season.

Bauer may be wired a bit differently than your average baseball player, which is not necessarily a bad thing. His dedication to his pitching and conditioning are uncommon. He majored in computer mathematics at UCLA and has been described as thinking too much, and some in the game have complained about the seeming rigidity of Bauer’s routines.

Bauer throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastball. His four-seamer can reach as high as 98 mph, but he usually works in the low-90’s where he can vary his speed and movement with better results. Bauer throws a slider and a curveball that has excellent depth, adding and subtracting speed as needed. Big league hitters will swing and miss at his curve and his changeup has definite potential.

He can throw strikes routinely but will nibble at times while looking for the strikeout. He needs to pick his spots to go for the strikeout and just let them come naturally. Bauer is at his best when he attacks the zone with all his pitches and forces batters to hit his best stuff. The funky delivery can hamper his ability to locate within the zone, so he must locate low in the zone with more consistency.

Deception and variety go a long way in college ball, but they can only take you so far in the pros. He will be an effective Major Leaguer pitcher, but he doesn’t have ace stuff. Bauer is a tremendous athlete that has constantly overcome his lack of physicality. He trains incredibly hard and truly knows what it means to compete. He will be a regular All-Star for Arizona and represents everything that a young pitcher should desire to be.

It’s possible he will break camp with the Diamondbacks, but with the team not hurting for starters just yet, he is likely return to Double-A to start the 2012 season where he will need to locate better against the advanced hitters of the Southern League. He could see the big leagues before the end of his first full season and he should be there to stay at some point in 2013. He profiles as an inning-eating, number two starter in a contending rotation.