trea turner Archives | DraftBuddy.com

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

March 3, 2019 By Chris Spencer 2 Comments

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

I pick from the 10th slot. You can follow along checking the online draft board.
I set up Draft Buddy choosing the ATC projections. Ariel Cohen’s approach is the way I would compile average projections if I did them.
I refer to my Target Percentages philosophy / method in this draft recap.

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Sale	16%	0%	17%	3.00	4.00
deGrom	16%	0%	17%	3.25	2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name	G	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
w/o Harper (prorated)	151	99	17	69	39	0.267
ATC Projection	151	98	19	73	43	0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Stanton	14%	9%	11%	3%	0.25
Freeman	9%	9%	10%	6%	3.50
Goldschmidt	11%	9%	10%	7%	2.00
Machado	12%	8%	10%	8%	1.75
Blackmon	9%	10%	7%	7%	2.75
Benintendi	6%	9%	8%	15%	1.75
Merrifield	4%	8%	7%	27%	1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
K.Davis	14%	9%	11%	1%	-1.25
Rizzo	10%	8%	10%	4%	1.25
Bellinger	11%	8%	9%	9%	0.00
Hoskins	13%	9%	10%	3%	-0.50
Marte	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Rendon	9%	8%	9%	3%	2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP)	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Marte (37)	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Villar (82)	5%	6%	5%	31%	-0.25
M.Smith (99)	2%	7%	4%	30%	0.75
D.Gordon (109)	1%	7%	4%	28%	1.00
Hamilton (164)	1%	6%	3%	29%	-1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Freeman	9%	9%	10%	6%	3.50
Marte	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
Batting Total	15%	17%	17%	30%	4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	15%	17%	17%	30%	4.75
Bogaerts	7%	8%	9%	8%	1.75
New Batting Total	22%	25%	26%	38%	6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Sale	16%	0%	17%	3.00	4.00
Jansen	3%	48%	6%	0.75	1.25
Pitching Total	19%	48%	23%	3.75	5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	22%	25%	26%	38%	6.50
Rosario	9%	8%	8%	7%	1.25
New Batting Total	31%	33%	34%	45%	7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Previous Pitching Total	19%	48%	23%	3.75	5.25
Morton	13%	0%	12%	0.00	-0.50
New Pitching Total	32%	48%	35%	3.75	4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	31%	33%	34%	45%	7.75
Olson	11%	8%	9%	1%	-1.00
New Batting Total	42%	41%	43%	46%	6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	42%	41%	43%	46%	6.75
Dozier	9%	8%	8%	9%	-1.50
New Batting Total	51%	49%	51%	55%	5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Previous Batting Total	51%	49%	51%	55%	5.25
Anderson	6%	7%	6%	18%	-0.75
New Batting Total	57%	56%	57%	73%	4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

July 10, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez is absolutely raking. A bit of a health risk and new team deflated his value back in March, but now Andy has him comfortably inside the first round of his re-do fantasy baseball mock draft.

With the All-Star break here, fantasy baseball owners have a moment to catch their breath. For me, it’s a chance to look back and wonder what it would be like to start over (if only).

Needless to say and as usual, there are some surprises through the first half of the season. With the magic of my time machine, I’m able to go back and redraft my fantasy baseball teams.

Reviewing Average Draft Position data from the beginning of the year, I decide whether or not each player is worthy of another pick this time around, and if not who I would draft instead. This is a 12-team standard 5×5 roto league using a snake style draft.

I will start with Round 1 and in a second article run through Round 2. Here we go!

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 1

1. Mike Trout Preseason ADP #1, Mike Trout

What can you say about Mike Trout that hasn’t already been said? Last year he finished 4th in MVP voting, his worst since 2012. He’s already a 2x MVP and a seven time all-star. His offensive numbers this year are slightly ahead of his MVP years. He’s still running and even more staggering, he’s getting walked more than he’s striking out (79 walks to 78 strikeouts as of July 10). To have that much power and still take that many walks brings flashbacks to Barry Bonds. He is on the trajectory to be Bonds’ equal if not pass him. Trout is still, no doubt, the unanimous number one pick overall.

2. Mookie Betts Preseason ADP #2, Jose Altuve

I really went back and forth with this between Altuve and Betts. I ultimately went with Betts for one reason – power. Betts has 22 home runs to Altuve’s nine and scored 11 more runs. The difference between the two in RBI and batting average is negligible.

Betts is the second best fantasy outfielder in the game. Altuve is the best fantasy option at second base. In the end, I leaned to the power from Betts with everything else almost being a wash. You can’t really go wrong with either player.

3. Jose Altuve Preseason ADP #3, Nolan Arenado

As mentioned above, I think it’s a true toss-up between Betts and Altuve for the second best offensive player in the game right now. Altuve is going to score runs, hit for average and steal bases. Arenado will definitely hit for more power and will drive in more runs but I still can’t get the “Coors factor” out of my head. Playing 81 games in Denver is definitely an asset to Arenado and I don’t think the Rockies lineup is as deep as the Astros. To me, this was why I’d take Altuve over Arenado the second time around.

4. Nolan Arenado Preseason ADP #4, Trea Turner

Like Betts and Altuve, I really struggled to pick Arenado over Manny Machado. Their stats are almost identical.

Name	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS
Arenado	321	58	98	22	63	2	.305	.391
Machado	346	44	107	21	60	6	.309	.382

The key difference is runs. Arenado plays for a team currently winning ball games. Machado simply doesn’t have much of anything on the Baltimore Orioles to help him, especially in the runs category. Neither one of them are going to steal bases. The one factor you could figure in is position. Machado has both third and shortstop eligibility while Arenado would only have third. Otherwise, it’s a toss-up.

5. Manny Machado Preseason ADP #5, Clayton Kershaw

It wasn’t the year to pay up for baseball’s consensus top pitcher with back issues limiting him to 69 innings to date. Kershaw is an easy exclude from my re-do first round.

Even though Machado has third base and shortstop eligibility, I still drafted Arenado ahead of him. That said, I love Machado’s passion for the game and the numbers he puts up are fantastic. His team, quite frankly, stinks. The very real possibility still exists that Machado will get traded to a contending team, where he’d have protection around him and pushing his fantasy value higher. Right now, he’s the only threat in the Orioles lineup and the league knows it.

6. Jose Ramirez Preseason ADP #6, Bryce Harper

Ah, Mr. Harper. At the beginning of the season I wrote Harper isn’t worthy of a first round pick and I’ve turned out to be right. Insert pat on the back here. Harper started out on fire but has cooled considerably since May and finds not only himself, by the Washington Nationals in a tailspin.

Enter Jose Ramirez who has been as consistent as he was last year. He isn’t flashy but can flat out hit. His 24 home runs are fourth in MLB and he’s driven in 59 runs. The thing that makes Ramirez appealing is the fact he gets to pad his stats against the worst division in baseball – the AL Central. Facing the “staffs” of the Twins, Tigers, White Sox and Royals is like an all-state varsity player facing a JV squad.

7. J.D. Martinez Preseason ADP #7, Paul Goldschmidt

Although Goldy has been hitting the cover off the ball the past couple of weeks, Martinez is exactly what the Boston Red Sox needed. He leads the majors in home runs with 28 and RBI with 77. Oh, and he’s also hitting a solid .331. Playing DH primarily allows Martinez to stay healthy, which was a concern when he hit the free agent market this past off season. You know with the lineup Boston can run out there, as long as he stays healthy, he’s going to continue to put up huge numbers and I think may be a Top 12-15 player overall next year.

8. Francisco Lindor Preseason ADP #8, Giancarlo Stanton

The hype before the season was Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton possibly hitting 100 home runs combined. There is no doubt that Stanton has held up his end of the power but its feast or famine with him. He’s struck out 122 times and to put that in perspective, the league leader is Yoan Moncada with 126.

We’ve talked the left side of the infield most of this early draft but arguably the best shortstop out there may indeed by Francisco Lindor. He checks all the boxes as far as offense goes: runs, avg, rbi, home runs, and stolen bases. As with Jose Ramirez, he plays the horrible AL Central. The Indians are going to continue to run away with the division and Lindor will definitely get his.

9. Luis Severino Preseason ADP #9, Charlie Blackmon

Blackmon signed a big contract extension with the Colorado Rockies in the off-season. His numbers aren’t bad but not near what they had been the past couple of years. At the beginning of the year, you’d definitely take Blackmon but not now.

Severino has been the best pitcher in the American League and if it weren’t for Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball this year. He’s fourth in the majors with 123.1 innings, first in wins, seventh in strikeouts, and tied for third in WAR with 5.1. With the Yankees offense and the bullpen behind him (Robertson, Greene and Chapman) he is going to win his fair share of games. I have to admit, I had deGrom down but the fact that the Mets stink and the Yankees don’t made me pick Severino.

10. Max Scherzer Preseason ADP #10, Mookie Betts

I have already moved Betts up to number two in this fantasy baseball mock draft, so I’ll go ahead and focus on why Mad Max would be the 10th overall pick. He simply is doing Max things again this year. His record is 11-5 and he leads the league in innings pitched (127.2) and strikeouts (177). He also is sporting a 2.33 ERA. He has about 13 starts left which will possibly allow him to reach 300 strikeouts.

I had Scherzer rated ahead of Kershaw, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber at the beginning of the year and if it weren’t for Severino’s wins, he’d be a pick ahead of where he is now.

11. Aaron Judge Preseason ADP #11, Max Scherzer

We’re getting down to the end of the first round and looking at it from a fantasy standpoint, you have to start asking yourself what your strategy is. Is it hitter/hitter, pitcher/hitter, or pitcher/pitcher? With Sale, Kluber and Justin Verlander all still available, I think you need to go with a hitter and that hitter is Aaron Judge.

I thought Judge would take a step back after his break out season last year but that hasn’t been the case. He’s hit 25 home runs, driven in 60 and putting up a solid .281 batting average. He’s also nabbed six bags. Not bad for a power hitter of Judge’s capability. To get Judge with the 11th pick and able to get a stud starting pitcher is the best case at this point.

12. Corey Kluber Preseason ADP #12, Chris Sale

Please understand that this was honestly a coin flip. Sale has established himself as one of the top five pitchers in the game. He’s on pace for over 200+ strikeouts again this year and will undoubtedly get 15-18 wins.

The turning point for me though taking Kluber over Sale is two-fold. One, the Indians’ AL Central division is terrible and Kluber can add to his dominance facing those horrible teams. Sale gets to face the Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, but he also has to face the New York Yankees, a minus in Sale’s column.

Two, Kluber is a control freak. He’s walked only 15 hitters this season. Sale has allowed twice as many, which is still good, but, twice as many. In the AL Central a few extra base runners is not a big deal. In the AL East, it could be the difference between a win and a loss.

So there you have it. The pre-All Star Game “do over” fantasy baseball draft. Undoubtedly, there will be some disagreement but that is completely fine. Make your case in the comments. Next time, round two.

Extra Innings

I really thought that the Minnesota Twins had a shot to be in the Wild Card mix this year. Boy was I wrong. I drank the Kool-Aid and now have a tummy ache because of it. I’m a sucker for a feel good story though so if the Twins aren’t going to make it, I’d like to see the Seattle Mariners finally get back to the playoffs.

Not since 2001 have the M’s played post-season baseball, and they’ve had really good talent in the organization but hasn’t got them over the hump; namely King Felix.

Felix Hernandez has given everything he possibly can/could to the M’s and hasn’t sniffed the post-season. He’s finally in a position where there is some light at the end of the tunnel. General Manager Jerry DiPoto has master minded trade after trade trying to give the Emerald City another shot at playoff redemption. Good luck to the M’s and King Felix. Hopefully this is your year.

Manuel Margot Has Trea Turner Potential

March 23, 2018 By Giles Clasen Leave a Comment

Trea Turner Lite? Giles Clasen thinks we’ve got exactly that in San Diego Padres CF Manuel Margot, which could be a huge bargain for a 12th round draft pick.

Fantasy baseball is all about predicting the future. But this isn’t a game for psychics. Our game is about using past numbers and thoughtful analysis to try and predict future success.

I rely on projections this time of year, such as Steamer and ZiPS, but these resources don’t tell the whole story. Sometimes we have to look beyond projections and use our gut a bit to find the next breakout player.

This year my gut is telling me Manuel Margot will be a Top 25 fantasy player. He has the potential to be Trea Turner Lite.

Manuel Margot

Season	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	5X5
2016	37	4	0	3	2	.243	.243	.405	$0
2017	487	53	13	39	17	.263	.313	.409	-$1
2018 (Steamer)	552	70	14	55	21	.259	.308	.402	$5
2018 (Zeile)	545	71	13	54	21	.266	.316	.413	$3
2018 (ZiPS)	539	65	12	51	20	.267	.315	.412	$0

I don’t say this flippantly. Trea Turner is one of the best players in fantasy and could top the ESPN player rater if he stays healthy. Justifiably, Turner is being drafted in the first round. So finding a player who can give you similar numbers in the twelfth round is extremely valuable.

When comparing Turner and Margot, I do recognize Turner hit the major leagues running, quite literally. In his first 73 games Turner hit 13 home runs, stole 33 bases and hit .342. Turner demanded our attention.

Turner followed up those gaudy 2016 numbers by swiping 46 bases in 95 games last year, while giving you double digit home runs and a solid average.

Trea Turner

Season	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	5X5
2015	40	5	1	1	2	.225	.295	.325	$0
2016	307	53	13	40	33	.342	.370	.567	$10
2017	412	75	11	45	46	.284	.338	.451	$14
2018 (Steamer)	567	94	16	65	49	.296	.345	.462	$28
2018 (Zeile)	559	94	16	65	49	.293	.342	.462	$32
2018 (ZiPS)	514	78	14	62	45	.280	.330	.444	$21

Margot is a year younger than Turner and has taken a bit more time to reach his potential. Positively speaking, Margot still has a lot of room to grow. He had a solid rookie season last year, but few would say that Margot’s numbers suggest he can hold a bat to Turner. However…

The first thing to note is Margot’s speed. The guy is fast. Statcast measured Margot as the 10th fastest guy in baseball, a hair faster than Turner. Sure, stealing a base requires more skill than just speed, but Margot, in theory, has the raw ability to take a base whenever he wants to.

Margot also plays for the San Diego Padres. This may not seem like a good thing, but trust me, it is. Manager Andy Green lets his players run, which is a rare thing these days.

In 2017 the Padres were in the top third of teams for attempted steals. That is valuable, because more and more teams are holding back their players. Margot should be given the opportunity to run if he wants to. All of this suggests Margot will have 30 or more steals in 2018. Last year only 6 players stole 30 bases.

I believe Margot has the ability to hit for power as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Margot hit 20 home runs this year. Margot showed a fair amount of improvement last year from the first half of the season to the second. His slugging went from .392 to .424 while slightly decreasing his strike out rate.

These numbers are slightly behind Turner’s, but if Margot can stretch his second half over the whole season, or continue to improve slightly, Margot could hit a few more over the fence than Turner in 2018.

In addition, Margot is hitting leadoff for an improved Padres team so his counting stats could also jump some from last year.

In 2017 we all watched Elvis Andrus go from being drafted outside the Top 200 to finishing a Top 20 payer. I believe Margot can accomplish the same thing.

At this time next year we won’t be talking about Margot as a regression candidate but as a player who finally arrived. Not quite Trea Turner, but not far off.