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New England Patriots Team Report

June 17, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Last season New England Patriots QB Tom Brady was a fantasy dud for the first four weeks before catching fire. This season, we know he's posting a goose egg to start (pending appeal). If and when to draft him is the question.

Last season New England Patriots QB Tom Brady was a fantasy dud for the first four weeks before catching fire the final twelve. This season, we know he’s posting a goose egg to start (pending appeal). If and when to draft him is the question.

QB Tom Brady

If it weren’t for his four game suspension (pending appeal) to open the season, we might be discussing the merits of Brady as a top five fantasy quarterback. However, his role in Deflategate ensures that discussion doesn’t need to take place. After incurring a rough patch to open the season with just 791 yards and four touchdown passes in his first four games, Brady caught fire, throwing for 3,318 yards and 29 touchdowns in his final 12 games (he threw just 16 passes in Week 17). With all of his key weapons returning other than pass catching running back Shane Vereen, Brady should rank as a mid to upper tier QB1 next season on a points-per-game basis. The issue is when do you draft him? With a Week 4 bye, Brady won’t be available to start for your fantasy team until Week 6 and if he has a slow start, your fantasy squad could be facing an uphill battle to secure a playoff spot. That means the safest strategy is drafting Brady as well as an upper tier QB2 unless Jimmy Garoppolo has an impressive preseason. Unless Brady comes at a bargain, we suggest looking elsewhere.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Taken in the 2nd round of the 2014 NFL Draft, Garoppolo played reasonably well in what was mostly mop up duty as a rookie, completing 19 of 27 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. With Tom Brady suspended to open the season, Garoppolo will be the Patriots starting quarterback for the first four games of the season (pending Brady’s appeal). While offseason reports indicate that Garoppolo performed well in OTA’s, the truth is that we have very little to go on in predicting how well he will perform when under center on opening day. Potential Brady owners should monitor Garoppolo’s progress in the preseason to determine if he is worth counting on until Brady returns to the line-up.

RB LeGarrette Blount

After flaming out at midseason in Pittsburgh, Blount rejoined the Patriots and led their rushing attack over the final five games of the regular season and during New England’s three playoff games. In those eight contests, he totaled 470 rushing yards with six touchdowns. With Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley having left via free agency, Blount is penciled in as the team’s opening day starter except he’s going to miss that one as a result of a one-game suspension. Of course, when it comes to Blount, nothing is ever cast in stone. However, while there are plenty of bodies competing for touches in the Patriots backfield, Blount rates as the team’s most proven commodity ahead of Jonas Gray, James White and Brandon Bolden. Consider him a mid-tier RB3 in standard s scoring leagues and a high end RB4 in PPR formats.

RB Jonas Gray

After rushing for 201 yards and four touchdowns during the Patriots Week 11 blowout win over the Colts, Gray showed up late for practice, earning him a spot on the inactive list the following week and just three carries in the team’s next two games. Outside of an 11 carry game in Week 15, Gray never returned to head coach Bill Belichick’s good graces but he returns in 2015 in the hopes of earning a roster spot. While the Patriots hardly feature a stacked depth chart at running back, we don’t like Gray’s chances of carving out a meaningful role next season. He is only marginally talented and is worth a late round flier only if he impresses during the preseason.

RB James White

Taken in the 4th round of the 2014 NFL Draft, White failed to impress as a rookie, earning just 14 touches during the season. He will fight for touches with LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and Brandon Bolden in 2015. Whispers out of New England are that the team views White as the most likely candidate to replace the departed Shane Vereen as the team’s pass catching option out of the backfield. If he wins that role, he has potential as a flex option in PPR formats.

RB Brandon Bolden

After a pair of middling performances in 2012 and 2013, Bolden returned to irrelevance last season, rushing the ball just 28 times for 89 yards and a touchdown. He is back in 2015 competing for a roster spot and he has a chance to carve out a role given the respectable skills he has shown as a pass catcher out of the backfield (21 receptions for 152 yards in 2013).

RB Dion Lewis and RB Travaris Cadet

These two smurfs will fight with James White for the opportunity to replace Shane Vereen as the Patriots main threat catching passes out of the backfield. A bust for the Eagles after being taken in the 5th round of the 2011 NFL Draft, Lewis hasn’t touched the ball in a regular season game in two years. After a solid season catching 38 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown, Cadet wasn’t tendered by the Saints even though they released Pierre Thomas in the offseason just one year after trading Darren Sproles. Monitor their progress in the preseason and draft accordingly.

WR Julian Edelman

It is time to believe, folks. After catching 197 of his 285 targets for 2,028 yards and ten touchdowns over the past two seasons, it is well past time to anoint Edelman as not only the Patriots leading wide receiver but also as one of the league’s premier slot receivers. While a concussion cost him two games and the opportunity to top 1,000 receiving for the second consecutive season, Edelman should be considered a rock solid mid-tier WR2 in standard scoring formats and an upper tier WR2 in PPR formats. Tom Brady’s four game suspension to open the season is a mild cause for concern but we think Jimmy Garoppolo will look Edelman’s way plenty early in the season. More quick than fast and lacking size, Edelman is never going to produce a ton of touchdowns but he always seems to come at a bargain. Don’t overlook Edelman for the third season in a row.

WR Brandon LaFell

Proving once again that he is smarter than the rest of the league, Bill Belichick signed LaFell to a three-year, $9-million contract with a $3-million signing bonus prior to the 2014 season. Although LaFell’s signing was largely criticized considering his four mostly forgettable seasons in Carolina, he proved to be a free agent gem for the Patriots, finishing the season with career-highs in receptions (74), yards (953) and touchdowns (seven). While those numbers likely represent his ceiling, we don’t see why he can’t approach that production once gain in 2015 even taking into account quarterback Tom Brady’s four game suspension to open the season. LaFell emerged as a red zone favorite as the season progressed, catching all seven of his touchdowns in his final 13 games before adding a pair of touchdowns in New England’s three game playoff run to a Super Bowl Championship. We like him as a mid-tier WR3.

WR Danny Amendola

Two seasons into a five-year, $28.5-million contract that included $10-million in guarantees and paved the road for Wes Welker‘s exit, Amendola has done little to suggest that he will emerge as a consistent receiving threat for the Patriots. A solid receiver out of the slot when healthy for the Rams, he has been unable to get on the same page as quarterback Tom Brady and there is no reason to suggest that he will reclaim the slot receiving role that he lost to Julian Edelman. Barring an Edelman injury, Amendola isn’t worth owning.

WR Aaron Dobson and WR Brian Tyms

While it’s always fun to get excited about deep threats in offenses that rank amongst the league best, we’re hedging our bets on these two burners entering the 2015 season. After a somewhat encouraging rookie season after being taken in the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Dobson found himself in the doghouse for most of last season and he will be in a fight to retain his roster spot. Tyms flashed some playmaking ability last season but failed to earn a consistent role. Not helping matters for these two is that quarterback Tom Brady appears to have lost his deep ball accuracy as well as his willingness to take shots down the field. These two should only appear on fantasy rosters in deep leagues.

TE Rob Gronkowski

While injuries have interrupted Gronkowski’s stay as the league’s premier fantasy tight end, that issue won’t prevent him from being the consensus top pick in this year’s fantasy drafts. With Gronk coming off an 82 reception, 1,124 yard, 12 touchdown season and Jimmy Graham now plying his trade in Seattle’s heavily run based offseason, there won’t be any debate regarding which of the two talented tight ends should come off the fantasy board first. Tom Brady’s four game suspension (pending appeal) is a minor red flag as is Gronkowski’s injury history but he is a game breaking player who is remarkably consistent (nine or more fantasy points in 12 of 15 games last season) whose ability to find the end zone is not in doubt (55 touchdowns in 65 games). The only issue is where to take him and we don’t have any problem with him coming off the board in the mid to late portion of the 1st round.

Also see: New England Patriots IDP Team Report | Philadelphia Eagles

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 9, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) dunks the ball after a go ahead score during game action at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. The Panthers win it in the final seconds 17-13 over the Saints, entering the playoffs. December 22, 2013; Photographer: Jim Dedmon/Icon Sportswire

Jimmy Graham dunked the goal posts 16 times last season and outscored the next best fantasy TE by 54.5 points. The Saints have until July 15 to work out a contract extension or risk Graham holding out under the franchise tag. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB D. Brees
1 · 3rd
445-650-5,050 38 TD 15 INT
25-55 2 TD
–
422.0
RB P. Thomas
4 · 23rd –
150-680 4 TD
75-500 3 TD
160.0
RB M. Ingram
6 · 33rd –
125-570 4 TD
12-90 0 TD
90.0
RB K. Robinson
8 · 55th –
90-380 2 TD
6-35 0 TD
53.5
WR K. Stills
6 · 32nd – –
62-925 7 TD
134.5
WR M. Colston
7 · 38th – –
75-915 6 TD
127.5
WR B. Cooks
NR – –
55-675 4 TD
91.5
WR J. Morgan
NR – –
10-150 1 TD
21.0
WR N. Toon
NR – –
15-175 0 TD
17.5
TE J. Graham
1 · 1st – –
95-1,175 12 TD
189.5
TE B. Watson
NR – –
20-245 3 TD
42.5

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Drew Brees

Ho hum. Drew Brees posted another banner season in 2013, finishing the year with 5,162 passing yards and 39 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions. He became the first quarterback to ever top 5,000 passing yards in three consecutive seasons and he has finished as the 2nd, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd and 2nd ranked fantasy quarterback during his eight year run in New Orleans. Did we mention that he has averaged 42.7 touchdown passes and 28.0 PPG over the last three years and that he even chipped in three rushing touchdowns last season? On and on it could go. With Brees, you get a quarterback pretty much guaranteed to finish as a top three fantasy quarterback and we’re not changing that narrative based on the fact that Darren Sproles and Lance Moore left town. Now, if Jimmy Graham stages a long holdout, all cards are off the table, but we don’t expect that to happen. Even with a pair of largely inexperienced players in Kenny Stills and Brandin Cooks expected to hold down the 2nd and 3rd WR roles in 2014, we still love Brees as a top three quarterback. Outside of Peyton Manning (who just has too many weapons not to be the first quarterback taken in almost all scoring formats in redraft leagues), feel free to grab Brees as the second or third quarterback off the board.

RB Pierre Thomas

When it comes to Pierre Thomas as a football player, there’s a lot to like and not a lot to love. The 8th year veteran is slightly above average running the ball and in pass protection and if there is one area that he is above average, it is as a receiver out of the backfield, having averaged 55.3 receptions per year over the last three years and posting a career high 79 receptions in 2013. With Darren Sproles taking his 71 receptions to the Philadelphia Eagles and the other running backs on the Saints roster having caught just 12 passes last season, Thomas could be a PPR demon in 2014. Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson have shown little ability catching the ball, leaving only diminutive Travaris Cadet likely to challenge Thomas for that role in 2014. Unfortunately, it seems all too likely that Thomas’ increased usage would almost certainly cost him carries as the Saints have a history of not overusing their running backs. At 29 years of age, New Orleans isn’t about to turn Thomas into a workhorse back, which limits his upside. We like him as a safe option as a mid to lower tier RB3.

RB Mark Ingram

Will Mark Ingram finally get a solid opportunity to fulfill the promise he showed when the Saints used a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft to acquire him? With Darren Sproles traded away and Pierre Thomas approaching 30, you could make the case that Ingram might get a real chance to strut his stuff in 2014. But do you really believe that he would make the most of it? That’s a lot of ifs and with Khiry Robinson having played well in limited opportunities last season and the Saints proven record of using a committee approach at running back, we don’t expect that Ingram will have a breakout season. With just 24 receptions in three years, he won’t be taking on Sproles’ pass receiving role. That will go to Thomas, who posted a career high 77 receptions last season with Sproles still around. While Ingram posted a solid 4.9 yards per carry average in 11 games (he missed five games with a toe injury), it won’t be a shock if both Thomas and Robinson see more carries than him in 2014. Having declined their option to add a year to his rookie contract, this could very well be Ingram’s swan song in New Orleans.

RB Khiry Robinson

An undrafted free agent out of West Texas A&M, Robinson had a strong training camp and essentially forced his way onto the Saints roster. At 6’0” and 220 pounds, Robinson is more bulldozer than ballerina, averaging 4.1 yards per carry and scoring once on his 54 rushing attempts in 2013. He also played well in the Saints divisional playoff game in Seattle, rushing for 57 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries against a stout Seahawks run defense. Unfortunately, he offers little as a receiver out of the backfield, failing to catch a single pass in his rookie season. With Pierre Thomas not the long term answer at 29 years of age and Mark Ingram entering the final year of his rookie contract and having failed to establish himself as a consistent rushing threat, it wouldn’t rate as a huge surprise if Robinson leads the Saints in rushing attempts in 2014. He’s definitely solid sleeper material and a player whose ADP should rise as the summer comes to a close.

WR Marques Colston

The shine started to come off the Saints Marques Colston in 2013. After finishing as the 14th, 8th, 32nd (five games missed in 2008), 12th, 18th, 10th and 11th ranked fantasy wide receiver during the first seven years of his career, he slumped to 27th last season as he failed to top 1,000 yards for the first time since his injury shortened 2008 campaign and he matched a career low with just five touchdowns. Part of the reason for his reduced production was a lingering foot injury but at 31 years of age, there are some legitimate concerns that Colston, never the fastest of wide receivers, could be on the decline. While that is almost certainly true, what is also true is that he remains the Saints leading wide receiver if not their top receiving threat due to the presence of tight end Jimmy Graham. Since neither Kenny Stills nor rookie 1st round pick Brandin Cooks is ready to assume the lead role, Colston should easily match his 110 target count from a year ago. Given that and the fact that he has averaged 7.9 touchdowns per season during his career, we like Colston as a lower tier WR3 or upper tier WR4.

WR Kenny Stills

Considered a development prospect when taken in the 5th round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Stills had a surprisingly productive rookie season, catching 32 of his 51 targets for 641 yards and five touchdowns. Possessed with outstanding speed, the 6’0”, 194 pound Stills regularly blew past opposing defensive backs on his way to posting a league high average of 20.0 yards per reception. With Lance Moore released and Darren Sproles traded, Stills will battle rookie 1st round pick Brandin Cooks to earn a larger role in his second season. He will need to improve his consistency but we like to odds of him holding Cooks off for the starting position opposite Marques Colston. Consider Stills a solid dynasty prospect and a low end WR3 or high end fantasy reserve with upside in redraft formats.

WR Brandin Cooks

Saints quarterback Drew Brees gets a shiny new toy in 2014 in the form of Brandin Cooks. Taken in the 1st round of this year’s draft, the diminutive Oregon State wide receiver should easily slide into the Saints passing arsenal and earn a decent portion of the targets left open with the departure of Darren Sproles. At 5’9”, 189 pounds, Cooks is built like Sproles and possesses the same agility and speed that allowed him to excel in the Saints offense for the past three years. While he isn’t going to be asked to run the ball out of the backfield much, Cooks shapes up as a solid option out of the slot with the ability to slide outside and blow past opposing defenders on deep patterns. There’s a lot to like when it comes to Cooks except one thing: experience. Even considering his solid skill set and opportunity to quickly earn a role in the Saints high powered offense, we don’t expect Cooks to emerge as a consistent fantasy threat due to the continued presence of Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and the still developing Kenny Stills. Grab Cooks with a late round flier in redraft formats and definitely make an effort to get him stashed on your roster in dynasty leagues.

WR Joseph Morgan

One year after looking like a potential breakout candidate at wide receiver, Morgan will have to fight tooth and nail to earn a roster spot with the Saints in 2014. Expected to provide a deep threat in the New Orleans offense after averaging a ridiculous 37.9 yards per reception in 2012, Morgan suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and watched as rookie 5th round pick Kenny Stills took over his role. If that wasn’t bad enough, the team used a 1st round pick in this year’s draft to acquire another speedster, Brandin Cooks.

WR Nick Toon

Drafted out of Wisconsin with a 4th round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Toon has done little during his first two years in the league. The 6’4”, 218 pounds, Toon missed all of his rookie season with a foot injury and appeared in eight games last season, catching four passes for 68 yards. A polished product as a route runner but lacking deep speed, Toon will have to hold off the likes of Robert Meachem and Joe Morgan to earn a roster spot in 2014. Even if he winds up on the roster on opening day, we don’t hold out much hope that he will have any fantasy value.

TE Jimmy Graham

When it comes to Jimmy Graham, you can trot out pretty much all the superlatives you want. Speed, skill, athleticism – let’s start with that and throw in consistency as well. For the second straight season Graham led all tight ends in fantasy points, topping runner up Vernon Davis by 54.5 points. He finished the season with 86 receptions (on what seems a surprisingly low 144 targets) for 1,215 yards and a career-high 16 touchdowns, topping double digit fantasy points in 12 games. With Darren Sproles having taken his talents to Philadelphia and the wide receiver position in transition and expected to lean heavily on 2nd year player Kenny Stills and rookie 1st round pick Brandin Cooks, Graham should see his targets on the rise in 2014. Given Graham’s consistent production and the clear advantage he gives fantasy owners over the next best tight end, you can justify grabbing him late in the 1st round of your fantasy draft. The only risk lies in his contract squabble with the Saints, a situation that could be rectified prior to opening day.

Also see: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
 

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