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Trading Cam Newton in Dynasty Experts League

April 30, 2014 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) passes against the Miami Dolphins in Carolina's 20-16 victory at Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida. November 24, 2013; Photographer: Richard C. Lewis/Icon SMI

Who is Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton going to throw to this year to keep him amongst the top ranked players at his position? November 24, 2013; Photographer: Richard C. Lewis/Icon SMI

As I’m in the process of preparing my preliminary fantasy football projections and rankings for the upcoming NFL season (yes, still 4+ months away, but we have a schedule), I realize I am extremely low – hopefully with good reason – on Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton.

With the departure of wide receivers Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, Ted Ginn Jr. (yes, even Ginn who practically matched LaFell in fantasy points) and replacing them with Jerricho Cotchery (Steelers), Tiquan Underwood (Buccaneers) and Jason Avant (Eagles) is a highly suspect method of supporting your franchise QB. I’m not saying the first group is any sort of murderer’s row of receiving talent, but when you jettison the top three receivers – two of which were with Cam every year of his career – and replace them with career third (or lower) wide receivers, I’m a lot more pessimistic on this situation than optimistic.

Maybe Greg Olsen will have a Jimmy Graham-esque season. Okay, while I believe it is possible Olsen can still increase his numbers from 2013, even though they represented career highs in targets and catches, it would be tough to expect so much more it will radically increase Newton’s numbers.

The running game? Same old, same old, and getting older. Cam has obviously always augmented his stats with his rushing, but as we’ve seen with many a running QB in the past, rushing stats decline over time as there is perhaps less desire to run by the QB and the coach to help keep the QB on the field.

If this new look receiving corps doesn’t pan out, fantasy owners may predict Cam to run more, but really, is that going to be an easy task if and when defenses expect him to run more? That expectation is a natural consequence of Cotchery, Underwood and Avant struggling, matched up against the opposition’s top corners, something they’ve never really had to do before for an extended time.

These red flags directed towards Cam’s 2014 season may prove a short-term problem, and we are talking dynasty here, so why am I hot to tot to trade him away? My reasoning is that generally if a player is due for a down season, that will negatively impact their value going into the following season. That seems reasonable. It would have to be an exceptionally special player to expect a down year, and ride out the down in anticipation of a big rebound the following year(s).

Normally we would only expect a big down year for an injured or recovering player, and it becomes difficult trading away an injured player for decent value because, well, he’s injured. Cam is not injured. Technically, that is not correct. He’s in a walking boot recovering from ankle surgery. In this case it is not an injury the fantasy community is overly concerned about at this time.

Anyway, my point being that while we’ve seen some downgrade of Cam Newton for the receiver turnover, I don’t believe the fantasy community has adequately downgraded Cam Newton enough for what lies ahead. If you own him, then I suggest trying to trade him.

Two years ago I joined the Dynasty Experts League, and inherited Cam Newton. I posted on the board he is available to see what interest there is out there for his services. Negotiations started almost immediately with two teams.

Team A
Offer Received From Team A
Give: Cam Newton
Get: Rookie Pick 2014 1.03

Counter-proposal
Give: Newton + Rueben Randle
Get: Jarrett Boykin + Ladarius Green + 2014 1.02

Counter-offer Received
Give: Newton + 2014 3.07
Get: Boykin + 1.02

Team B
Proposal To Team B
Give: Cam Newton
Get: DeAndre Hopkins + Rookie Pick 2014 1.01

Response (discussion, not an official offer)
Give: Newton + Mid-round pick or quality defensive player
Get: Markus Wheaton or Marques Colston (type) + 2014 1.01

Counter-proposal
Give: Newton + 2014 4.07
Get: Terrance Williams + 2014 1.01

Counter-offer Received
Give: Newton + 2014 3.07 or Tyrann Mathieu or Jerod Mayo
Get: Markus Wheaton + 2014 1.01

Counter-proposal and Accepted
Give: Newton + 2014 4.07
Get: Wheaton + 2014 1.01
 

There you have it, I ultimately made a deal trading Cam Newton plus a mid-round pick in exchange for the 1.01 pick in the rookie draft and Markus Wheaton. I originally wanted to improve at WR in this deal, and I’ll concern myself with bolstering my now very risky looking quarterback situation (Brian Hoyer, Matt Schaub) at a later time.

I believe I’ve potentially improved a lot at WR as the 1.01 is likely to be used on Sammy Watkins. Markus Wheaton is an interesting prospect entering his second year, because he did virtually nothing last season catching only 6 passes for 64 yards, but he was highly touted and has a nice opportunity with the Pittsburgh Steelers since Emmanuel Sanders left town to join the Denver Broncos. I’ll be a bit on pins and needles hoping the Steelers don’t use a high pick on a WR in the upcoming NFL Draft.

All in all, I’m happy with this deal getting the coveted 1.01 pick even at the expense of a 24-year old starting QB in Cam Newton. We’ll see if I’m accurate predicting a down year for him in 2014.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Baseball Journal—Trade Offer for David Price

April 29, 2010 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

I’ve been spending all of my FBJ (that’s Fantasy Baseball Journal) time on my 15-team, 5X5 mixed weekly transaction league so far, but I received a trade in the 13-team, 6X6 mixed daily transaction league I need to breakdown and decide what to do with.

The trade offer came from Eno over at Fantasy Lounge and FanGraphs, who from what I can tell lives and breathes fantasy baseball, so although his team is off to a rough start in this league, I need to be on my toes with this one. The offer is:

I Give I Get
SP David Price SP Mat Latos
SP Brad Penny

Eno’s note to me accompanying the trade is, “Facing a roster crunch with Lilly coming back.” Right, but I think I am too since I dropped Aaron Harang to pull Brian Fuentes off of the DL. I still have George Sherrill, who I’d be happy to drop but I still need someone to help me with Holds.

I spoke with Rick before about David Price, in which I indicated I thought he was a good upside pick for this season, and Rick still felt (more or less) he was a year away. His reasoning was that sometimes a pitcher in Price’s position will come in, do well early until hitters figure him out a little. That leads to a downtick adjustment period, after which the guy either has it, or he doesn’t.

I more or less agree with that, not only with pitchers, but young players in lots of sports. It is probably more pronounced in baseball though where the man-vs.-man, pitcher-vs.-hitter battle prevents players from, using a hockey phrase, “being a passenger”, essentially going along for the ride allowing team mates to compensate and cover up the player’s deficiencies.

In baseball, the pitcher and hitter are on an island. Players can adjust facing a particular individual, and performances are more easily identifiable as the individual player is doing well or struggling.

So, while I do agree with Rick that Price could be in line for a correction—a.k.a., he’s currently overvalued for fantasy—is now the time to give him up? It is still early, and because it is early and he hasn’t really proven anything so far in his career to support this production, people can and will target him from you using otherwise middle level veteran players, also known as players without a lot of pizzazz.

How do they justify that? Well, what has he proven to justify more in a trade? What indeed.

It is a tough spot to be in. You can’t sell him for what you think is appropriate value, but at the same time, you think he will probably lose value if you hold him.

Ultimately, after getting Rick’s second opinion, I decided to hang on to Price. He’s been really hot, and unless you are blown away with an offer, I don’t want to sell him and watch him continue down the same path of dominance all the while expecting him to maybe fall off a bit… sometime… maybe.

I guess the old adage applies here too. If you are giving up the best single player in the deal, then you are probably on the wrong end of the deal. It happens a lot that you just can’t get enough in return to justify trading away a player with premium qualities.

Quality over quantity will get you closer to winning a fantasy championship many more times than not.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Eagles Trade Donovan McNabb to Washington Redskins—Fantasy Impact

April 5, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment

With new head coach Mike Shanahan at the controls, the Washington Redskins and their flamboyant owner Daniel Snyder promised the team’s fans that the days of wild free agent spending and veteran acquisitions were over.

The new vision died a quick death with the team’s decision yesterday to trade for the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb. In order to acquire, the 33 year old quarterback, the Redskins shipped their 2010 second round pick (37th overall) and a conditional pick in 2011 that will be either their third or fourth round pick.

While the price is reasonable, the vision of the Redskins turning to the draft to reverse the team’s sagging fortunes over the past few years seems over. In that regard, the new administration is following the same philosophy as previous regimes did in Washington under Snyder – eschewing developing young players in favour of playing aging veterans in the hopes of a quick fix.

The Redskins have a solid defense, one that is perhaps worthy of contending for a championship. However, the offense is not yet ready to lead the team to a division title and it’s difficult to envision McNabb as the final piece of the puzzle that pushes them over the top in 2010. In fact, they will need to push the right buttons in free agency and the draft just to have a chance to make the playoffs in 2011.

The trade increases the likelihood of the team using the fourth overall selection in the draft to plug the hole that was created at left tackle with Chris Samuels’ retirement. It also increases the chances of incumbent starting quarterback Jason Campbell being moved before the draft, possibly to the quarterback needy Buffalo Bills.

The move is a bold one for an Eagles front office known for its conservative player personnel moves.

McNabb has been to the Super Bowl, five NFC Championship games, six Pro Bowls and holds almost all of the franchise’s career records. In trading him to a division rival, the team is signalling that they are confident that Kevin Kolb is ready to lead the franchise and that McNabb’s presence in Washington won’t push the Redskins into Super Bowl contender status.

The Eagles brain trust has a history of solid personnel moves so the odds of them being right on Kolb seem likely. However, that doesn’t lessen the shock that they were willing to trade a player of McNabb’s stature in order to clear a spot for him in the starting line-up.


Fantasy Impact

While McNabb was my fifth ranked fantasy quarterback a month ago, his fantasy stock plummets with a move to Washington. In Philadelphia, he would have been surrounded by outstanding young talent at the skill positions in wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant as well as tight end Brent Celek and second-year running back LeSean McCoy, and protected by a solid offensive line.

While Redskins tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis are arguably only a notch below Celek, their wide receivers are no match for the Eagles threesome. In addition, their offensive line is in shambles and they have an aging group of running backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker that are well past their best before date.

McNabb becomes my 15th ranked fantasy quarterback and barring a breakout campaign from either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, it’s difficult to conclude that he has much upside from here. His risk factor also increases considering he is an aging quarterback playing behind a leaky offensive line and he has managed to stay healthy for a full season only four times in his 11 year career.

Of the Redskins wide receivers, Santana Moss figures to benefit the most but he will be 31 on opening day and has topped 1,000 yards once in the last four seasons. Plus, his small stature reduces his usefulness in the red zone.

He moves from WR5 status to being a WR4 in 10 team leagues and a marginal starter in 12 team leagues. I have him ranked 35th overall at wide receiver.

The odds of Thomas and Kelly breaking out in their third year in the league increases but predicting that is a stretch. They move from being waiver wire candidates in most leagues to potentially being worth a spot at the end of your fantasy bench depending on their play in the preseason. Keep your eye on this position battle during training camp.

Given Celek’s production over the past couple of years and Shanahan’s frequent use of the tight end position, Cooley and Davis figure to benefit from McNabb’s arrival but splitting the production is never a recipe for fantasy success at tight end.

As for the Redskins running backs, it’s best to avoid them altogether.

With the Eagles, Kolb obviously benefits the most from this move. He played reasonably well in a pair of starts last year against New Orleans and Kansas City, topping 300 yards in each game and throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed almost 65% of his passes in those games, displaying solid accuracy. Of course, the Saints were playing soft coverage because they had a big lead for most of the game and the Chiefs secondary was amongst the worst in the league.

Nonetheless, Kolb hasn’t played enough in the league to provide an accurate gauge of his fantasy prospects for the 2010 season. Fantasy owners are left to decide whether or not they trust the Eagles front office in installing him as the team’s starting quarterback on a roster that has the ability to challenge for the division title next season.

He will benefit from a solid supporting cast but young quarterbacks can be expected to throw more interceptions than veterans so expect a few more picks from Kolb than McNabb has thrown in recent seasons. Kolb figures to pass for between 3,500 and 3,800 yards with 20 plus touchdowns.

He becomes my 12th ranked fantasy quarterback but with upside and is an excellent option in dynasty leagues. Move him a couple of notches lower in leagues that penalize interceptions.

At wide receiver, Jackson, Maclin and Avant figure to move down slightly but not significantly. Jackson moves from sixth to eighth in the wide receiver rankings while Maclin moves from 25th to 30th. Avant remains worthy of owning in deep leagues and is a solid waiver wire candidate in shallower leagues if Jackson or Maclin is injured.

It’s worth noting that Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in Kolb’s two starts last season so there is plenty of reason for optimism with regards to his fantasy prospects.

However, in moving him from my second ranked tight end to fourth, I’m choosing to ignore that rather important statistic in putting Celek behind Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark. He remains an excellent player to own in dynasty leagues and could benefit from this move but he slides as his projected number of touchdowns is reduced with Kolb at the controls.

The Eagles running back tandem of McCoy and Mike Bell doesn’t see a material change in their fantasy prospects as a result of this trade.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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