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QB Frenzy in FFPC Best Ball Superflex Draft

July 31, 2018 By Mike 5 Comments

FFPC Best Ball Superflex Draft Board

Joining a new fantasy football best ball superflex draft at FFPC, with the first overall pick I took Todd Gurley. Quarterbacks went early and often through the first six rounds.

Last week after my Fighting Chance best ball superflex draft wrapped up (the one with the crazy scoring), I tweeted I planned to join a couple more leagues to keep me actively drafting into August. I joined a unique format best ball + March Madness knockout tournament league. That draft starts this morning.

I also joined a best ball draft over at FFPC, same format as their main event, except it is superflex. Superflex (hyphen super-flex or no hypen?) means that one of the available flex spots can be used for a quarterback, not only the traditional RB, WR or TE. Since quarterbacks typically score more fantasy points than the other positions, and perhaps are less volatile, every team normally attempts to fill their superflex spot with a QB, starting two each week.

One key rule of FFPC format leagues is they are start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and 2 Flex spots. In this case, as mentioned, one flex spot is superflex. The other key rule of note is in the scoring. All positions are 1 point-per-reception (PPR) except TE is 1.5 PPR, really driving up the value of the tight end position. It is not uncommon to see TE fly off the board in FFPC drafts.

Now certainly, quarterbacks will go at a premium in this particular league thanks to the superflex, but wow, I did not expect it to be this QB-heavy through the first six rounds. I (luckily?) drew the number one overall pick. Here is a draft recap of my picks and the QB frenzy that ensued.

Superflex Best Ball Draft Recap

Round 1

With the number one overall pick in the draft, I followed my own advice, and drafted Todd Gurley. Two quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, were selected with the 7th and 10th overall picks, respectively. That is not unexpected in a superflex draft. Now I have the long wait, 22 picks, until my next turn.

Round 2

Deshaun Watson, Tom Brady and Cam Newton drafted 2.02 through 2.04. It not a big surprise these guys were taken, but the guy with Wilson took Brady. He is doubling up at QB. That is a little unusual. Note Team 12 didn’t take a QB at all, instead opting for Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr., a fantastic start.

Wait, we are only at the 2.04 pick at this point. One would normally expect at least one of the usual top six to seven QB by ADP to get back to the Round 2-3 turn so I at least have the option to take a top tier QB. Teams with the 3rd and 2nd overall picks took Drew Brees and Carson Wentz at 2.10 and 2.11. That is seven quarterbacks drafted in the first 23 picks.

Now I have a pair of picks. As we know, QB scoring is high relative to RB and WR, but the differential in fantasy points from one to another through the next dozen or so quarterbacks, give or take, is negligible. Most experienced fantasy players know that and prefer to wait to draft a QB. There are some exceptional players available to me, so I take a player I never expected I could add here in an FFPC draft, Rob Gronkowski.

Round 3

Following up Gronk, I am still left to choose between Davante Adams and Michael Thomas, WR5 and WR6 on my board. I add Adams, giving me the #1 RB, #1 TE (in a TE premium league) and #5 WR. Another long wait.

Michael Thomas went right after me, a great pick for the team with the second overall pick. Immediately after, three more QB are picked – Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger and Matthew Stafford. Team 3 has now doubled up at QB, same as Team 10 earlier. No other QB taken but it is still a little surprising to see great players like Christian McCaffrey and A.J. Green fall to the back half of the third round.

Round 4

Team 12 did not take a QB again, showing that owner and I come from the same school of thought on QB value. Even in a superflex you don’t want to overpay for a QB. The majority of them still score very close to one another over the course of the season. I usually try to get a top QB at an acceptable value, and then a second QB in the bottom half of the middle or lower tier of starters, again, providing acceptable value.

This is where things really go haywire. From picks 4.02 to 4.11 (10 picks), seven of the selections were quarterbacks. At this point only two teams – me and Team 12 – do not own a QB. Five teams have a pair of QB, and one – Team 3 – has three. Three, really? I begin to wonder if these guys realize that only one of the flex spots can be a QB, not both.

I am pretty much forced to take a QB with this pick. This is one of those picks that turns your stomach a bit, but between Alex Smith and Dak Prescott, I opt for Smith. They were the top two choices based on job security, and I tapped Smith over Dak due to better supporting cast and more belief in Jay Gruden’s Redskins offense than the Cowboys.

Round 5

At this point, with the help of Draft Buddy, I can easily identify there are nine QB that I would consider acceptable QB2. They are Blake Bortles, Prescott, Case Keenum, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, Mitch Trubisky, Derek Carr and Tyrod Taylor. Jameis Winston is also still available. I have practically no interest in Winston this season, but this is good because surely someone will draft him before my list of nine is exhausted.

Also with the help of Draft Buddy, I can check each team’s roster and make and educated guess how many QB should get drafted between now and my next pick. Surely the guys who already have two QB will not draft another, leaving a maximum of six to get drafted, maybe another team adds a third QB, so seven total. Maybe I am picking between Dalton and Tannehill next round. Not ideal, but acceptable, as they won’t be remarkably different than any of the rest, depending who ultimately plays the full 16 game schedule.

Again, there are still some incredible players on the board given all of the QB picks. T.Y. Hilton is ranked my #10 WR, and seems to be edging up draft boards as positive reports continue to roll in about Andrew Luck. He is the pick edging out Jay Ajayi.

Six QB get drafted the rest of round five. Team 5 decided to take their third QB. Oh boy.

Round 6

Team 12 took their first QB in Round 5, and then second at the top of Round 6. That is my predicted max seven to be drafted in the 22 picks since my last turn. Everyone happy now? Can we get back to our regularly scheduled draft?

Would you believe four more after 6.01 took a QB? Six teams now have three QB through six rounds. Even Joe Flacco was taken at 6.11 right in front of me. That is almost a blessing, so I didn’t feel obliged to draft Joe Flacco.

At this point however, I pretty much say to heck with it. It is Alex Smith or bust at QB, so I add Demaryius Thomas as my WR3, and Evan Engram at 7.01 as my TE2. I am a little off on Engram this season but thought he was a decent value my last pick given the 1.5 PPR for TE, so excellent value this late.

Lessons Learned

FFPC Best Ball Superflex Roster

My roster through seven rounds

I don’t remember seeing this many quarterbacks drafted this early in a draft, whether it be must-start 2QB or super-flex. Something to keep in mind when reviewing recaps of fantasy football drafts involving experts is that they very often wait each other out as long as possible at the QB position. It is almost like a game of chicken – fantasy chicken? That draft strategy may not be indicative of more casual drafters you play against online or in your local fantasy league.

Another thing is drafting from the end gave me a lot less flexibility to adjust mid-draft. Even drafting 2-3 spots off either end, which is my preferred draft spot, would shorten up the turns and make it easier to predict positions drafted between my picks. Understanding the lack of flexibility, consider being less concerned with player value at each pick and more strict on roster construction under a potential worst-case scenario (i.e. all of the quarterbacks dry up).

Looking back, maybe I reach for Stafford or Philip Rivers instead of taking Adams in the 3rd, and leave the rest the same so Hilton is my WR1. I love Adams this season, but that may have resulted in the best overall team at this point given the way the rest of this draft played out.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1 Considerations

July 25, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2018 fantasy football rankings are up and here are fantasy football draft round 1 considerations. Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell is certainly in the mix for top of the first, but with some concerns.

My initial 2018 fantasy football rankings were posted last week, with a couple caveats. This morning the rankings are updated for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker, plus top 125 overall rankings.

That is a good start, but not as helpful as with some commentary to show the thought process behind them. Why are certain players higher or lower than the consensus average draft position (ADP)? Lets start with the Top 12 which is essentially my fantasy football draft round 1.

Overall
Rank Name Pos ADP1
1 RB T. Gurley, LAR RB1 1.02
2 RB E. Elliott, DAL RB2 1.03
3 RB L. Bell, PIT RB3 1.03
4 WR A. Brown, PIT WR1 1.06
5 WR D. Hopkins, HOU WR2 1.09
6 WR O. Beckham Jr., NYG WR3 1.12
7 RB D. Johnson, ARI RB4 1.04
8 RB S. Barkley, NYG ® RB5 1.06
9 WR J. Jones, ATL WR4 2.03
10 RB K. Hunt, KC RB6 1.11
11 RB D. Cook, MIN RB7 1.12
12 RB L. Fournette, JAC RB8 1.08
13 RB A. Kamara, NO RB9 1.06
14 WR D. Adams, GB WR5 2.06
15 WR M. Thomas, NO WR6 2.04
16 WR A. Green, CIN WR7 2.08
17 TE R. Gronkowski, NE TE1 2.12
18 RB M. Gordon, LAC RB10 1.10
19 WR K. Allen, LAC WR8 2.07
20 RB D. Freeman, ATL RB11 2.04
21 RB C. McCaffrey, CAR RB12 2.12
22 WR D. Baldwin, SEA WR9 3.03
23 WR T. Hilton, IND WR10 3.10
24 QB A. Rodgers, GB QB1 3.02

1 Fantasy Football Calculator (12 team)

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 1-6

1. RB Todd Gurley, LAR

I have five players in my Tier 1 running backs, adding Saquon Barkley to that group this morning. We know based on history at least one, probably two and possibly more will disappoint the high expectations that come with the fortune of having a Top 4 (or Top 1 or Top 2 or Top 3 or Top 5, depending on the year) draft pick. For me, I tend to rank that top group not so much on floor, ceiling, talent, etc., although that all comes into play, but rather which player is the least likely to disappoint. That is the guy I want with my top pick. That player is Todd Gurley. There are fewer red flags with Gurley compared the each of the next four running backs, which is why he is generally considered the consensus number one overall pick this fantasy draft season.

2. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

Elliott has slightly more red flags than Gurley, but I would argue less than Le’Veon Bell, slotting him in the number two spot for me. The Dallas Cowboys are not expected to be a top offense this season given the ultra-thin receiving corps, although coupled with Dak Prescott they should be able to show enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. The offensive line is still a huge strength, and Elliott the best pure runner in the league with a team committed to giving him a heavy workload. Even a dishonest defense is going to get exhausted trying to tackle this guy in the second half of games.

3. RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

Bell is absolute money for fantasy owners finishing in the RB2-RB4 range since his sophomore season (points-per-game in 2015 due to playing in only 6 games). That is performance scoring, no points-per-reception (PPR), in which he creates even more distance from his peers averaging 80 catches the past two seasons. Too bad that hasn’t translated into a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which leads us into yet another season in which Bell is skipping all of training camp. I respect his bet on himself mentality playing on the one-year franchise tag, but missed camp worries me he is more likely to get injured early in the season.

Also, “everyone” apparently hated now departed offensive coordinator Todd Haley. I’m sure Haley had a personality that rubbed Ben Roethlisberger and a whole bunch of people the wrong way but lets face facts – the guy knows offense and deserves a good deal of credit for the Steelers offensive juggernaut in recent seasons. Now Haley is gone and that worries me the potential negative impact on the whole offense of which Bell is the main beneficiary. Note these worries are not enough to push Bell far down the board, but based on risk, I am more comfortable with Gurley or Elliott than Bell.

4. WR Antonio Brown, PIT

Fantasy football drafts are back sliding into running back heavy affairs, and many will see the top five or six picks all take a RB before the first wide receiver is off the board. That is a mistake in leagues with three or more WR relative to two RB starters, and especially in PPR leagues.

No one would really bat an eyelash if Antonio Brown was drafted number one overall each of the past 4-5 seasons, and you know the guy who drafted him was certainly happy with the results. Wide receivers are safer picks than running backs. Antonio Brown is matchup proof. Taking Brown is a very positive use of draft capital.

The comments on Haley, above, don’t necessarily apply the same here. If the offense keeps chugging along as in the past, great, and great for Brown owners. If the offense stutters at all, the answer will be to throw to Brown. Brown is a worthy Top 4 pick and if you are skittish on any of the running backs, feel free to push him up to as high as number one on your board.

5. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

It appears I am higher on Deshaun Watson than most people, as I see repeatedly how fantasy experts state Watson is greatly overvalued. Sure, there is hype based on a small sample from last season and he is returning from a major injury. These are very logical conclusions to avoid Watson where he is typically getting drafted. At what point however do we sit back and say, “the guy is just that good”?

I do not say this lightly, but I think there is something to the thought we are witnessing a generational talent at the quarterback position. Health reports on his rehab are very good, so my concern there is mitigated. To watch him set the league on fire this season, wait until this time next year and declare Watson is in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers, doesn’t show fantasy experts are willing to stick their neck out very far, so I will. He has the ability of finishing QB2+. If I can get Watson around QB4 or later, then I absolutely will draft him.

Oh, my bad, this is supposed to be about DeAndre Hopkins. He will be the primary beneficiary and contributor to Watson’s success. Hopkins is 26 years old and primed to make last season and his 2015 stat line the norm. Anyone else tired of hearing the word regression from fantasy football experts?

Lets call this for what it is. Hopkins is super-talented. He is on a very good team. He will be showered with targets. Again, wide receivers are safer than running backs, putting Nuk in my Top 5.

6. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

Similar in concept to my reasons for Le’Veon Bell ranking behind Gurley and Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr. is not less talented or less capable of finishing WR1 than Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. However, he is a more risky proposition to get there than the other two.

We sometimes forget in our fantasy football analysis that these players are not robots, they are people. And people – particularly professional football players – do stupid things. Brown and Hopkins have shown less evidence of doing stupid things that could impact their on-field performance than someone like, say, Beckham. Its a character thing.

What Beckham accomplished in his first three seasons in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous, and then he got injured last season. I have no trouble drafting Beckham (hey, we are only half way through the first round here), but I feel safer with the other two wideouts. Based on fantasy football drafts so far, with their RB-heavy focus, there is a good chance you end up with Beckham using these rankings but drafting as late as eighth to tenth overall.

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 7-12

I am getting a little long with the commentary so time to shorten things up a bit. Anyone who emails me Draft Buddy tech support questions, or questions about their fantasy league, can usually expect a fairly detailed response. Maybe I need to do more fantasy football advice on Twitter to learn to give more concise answers.

7. RB David Johnson, ARI

David Johnson is squarely in the Tier 1 RB group by most rankings sets, often as high as RB2. The Arizona Cardinals are not expected to be very good though, am I right? For supporting cast we aren’t even positive if or how long Sam Bradford will start ahead of rookie QB Josh Rosen. They’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and … a whole lot of wishful thinking at receiver. Offensive guru coach Bruce Arians is gone. This team is rebuilding. Sure, a lot of volume for David Johnson and his talent puts him in the conversation but I don’t love the idea of using my first round pick on a RB for a team I expect is more likely to struggle than not. For the third time, wide receivers are safer.

8. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

We have no NFL history with Barkley which will lead some to say hey, no way am I taking a rookie with my first round pick. I like to have an open mind and try to never say never. Maybe Barkley is the next great thing at RB. Enough smart people who did the necessary scouting and research are singing his praises, and we have come a long way scouting football talent since Ki-Jana Carter, or the 2005 NFL Draft with running backs picks 2nd, 4th and 5th overall (and each of those guys were decent for stretches). Sure, the New York Giants are, like the Cardinals, not a good team. Unlike the Cardinals, there is a decent offensive supporting cast in place to contribute to Barkley’s success.

9. WR Julio Jones, ATL

Not reporting to Atlanta Falcons training camp due to a contract dispute does not make me particularly enamored with Julio Jones right now, so this ranking may drop. The sides each seem pretty stuck in that no new contract will be forthcoming prior to this season. More touchdowns would also be nice. On the plus side, Jones is sliding into the second round. He’s going to play, he might have a chip on his shoulder and I’m sure Matt Ryan has no issue helping Jones pad his stats as much as possible. A 1,400 yard floor and potential for 100 catches, I do feel better with him on my squad than the next group of riskier running backs.

10. RB Kareem Hunt, KC

If you drafted Hunt late last year, congrats. He was one of the stories of the NFL and particularly fantasy football in 2017 as an unheralded prospect, flung into action due to an injury to incumbent Spencer Ware. Great offense (although first year starting quarterback) and projected high workload make Hunt the expected man again for 2018. He did fade through the middle of last season but does contribute in the passing game. This is neither an aggressively positive or overly negative outlook for Hunt.

11. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN

A player that really impressed me last season was Dalvin Cook. Knee injury in Week 4! Bah! What a disappointment. Knee injuries are not the same concern coming back from them as they used to be, especially when they are early in the season. We will want to keep close tabs on reports about Cook through training camp. Skill-wise and playing on a top defensive minded team, this is perhaps a bit high from consensus but a decent ranking for Cook and his upside. Really, the players ranked in this range and through the next six or so picks are all somewhat interchangeable. Pick the guy you like, and Cook is one I do like.

12. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC

Fournette is very similar to me as Cook. Talented running back, playing on a team with a strong defense, he should be in many games with what the daily fantasy guys call a positive game script. Fournette only played in 13 games last year, finished RB8, and more than 15 points better than RB9. In most leagues drafting end of the first round you will want a RB with one of your first two picks, and Fournette is a good foundation for your team.

Other Considerations

RB Alvin Kamara, NO

This will be the player most will say is mistakenly missing from my Top 12. No doubt Kamara was superb last season, but a player who excels that much in a timeshare is typically a player I will fade the following season when expectations thrust him into the first round.

WR Davante Adams, GB and WR Michael Thomas, NO

I absolutely love Davante Adams this year as the trending up and go-to guy for Aaron Rodgers. He can certainly return first round value. Michael Thomas is great too, and I am not writing off Drew Brees yet as some are. My late first round drafts will usually lean to a balanced approach, taking 1 RB and 1 WR, so drafting any combination of Hunt/Cook/Fournette/Kamara and Jones/Adams/Thomas/A.J. Green is an ideal start.

TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Gronk is a difference maker. With Julian Edelman out to start the season, and Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis gone from the New England Patriots, a healthy Gronk could be exceptional. Perhaps this is one of the few ways to get value from your late first round pick. In a league giving extra value to the TE position, I would give high consideration to Gronk. In other leagues I wouldn’t begrudge you taking him this high either.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Most fantasy experts will tell you absolutely do not draft Aaron Rodgers with your first round pick. I am not going to do that. That applies to most of their (the experts’) leagues. Lets not worry about their leagues and lets worry about your league. Your league you may very well provide a big advantage owning the consensus number one quarterback.

Without diving too deep into this subject, even if the format and scoring is the same as expert leagues, in more casual leagues QB tend to get drafted earlier, and top RB and WR are more likely to fall deeper in the draft. And it can be more difficult to trade in your local league. So, considering Rodgers is a difference maker at a position potentially valued very highly in your league, if that costs you a first round pick, so be it.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Draft Buddy Fantasy Football Projections Update

June 28, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson goes 1.02 in a new draftmasters draft I am participating in to practice for the upcoming Scott Fish Bowl. I have the 12th pick so there was no threat of DJ falling to me.

I sent a members newsletter yesterday, so in the interest of getting some new info to you folks, here is a quick hit post about the latest with respect to fantasy football Draft Buddy.

Projections Update

We did an update of the FF Today projections, depth charts and ADP in Draft Buddy dated today, June 28. As of now we are on a regular weekly update schedule, Thursdays through to and including Thursday August 30, plus one more after Labor Day weekend on September 3. As usual, we also do unscheduled updates as needed for significant player news (injury, suspension, etc.) that doesn’t fall nicely into the regular schedule.

Rankings Update

Last year saw the addition of a new feature for Draft Buddy in early August – alternate player rankings. These rankings import directly to the cheatsheets, as opposed to having custom cheatsheets created using the projections and scoring rules in Draft Buddy.

There are three sets of player rankings – FF Today, Dynasty League Football and Draft Buddy. My Draft Buddy rankings are not ready yet, which I explained in the member newsletter. The FFT and DLF rankings are usually updated at the same time as the projections, or the next day.

YouTube Videos

There are three new YouTube videos demonstrating Draft Buddy to start the year. One, a quick rules and scoring setup you can find in our initial kickoff post for the 2018 season. Two, a demo of MFL integration in my FanEx FAD Draft Recap, Part 2.

Considering we just did a projections update, here is a great spot for the third one. Here is how to do an update and refresh your cheatsheets in Draft Buddy:

Scott Fish Bowl Draftmasters Draft

I added a page to the website with information about fantasy football experts leagues that I participate in, including the pro-am event Scott Fish Bowl (SFB8). Division assignments are out and the draft for that is coming up soon, July 9. I am in the Cheers – Norm Peterson division and have the 12th pick in the draft.

Thanks for buddy Jim Day, better known as Fantasytaz in the fantasy football community, I am going to get some practice in an SFB8 format draftmasters draft from the 12 spot. The draft just opened and started today with the usual suspects, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott 1-2-3 to start. It is pick 1.08 right now so I am waiting, but you can follow along the draft report, and I will let you know how it goes.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

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