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Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC East

June 19, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB in 2014. Can he continue the trend?

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Buffalo Bills

Matt Cassel is so average to below average, but we just don’t see E.J. Manuel being good enough to take the job away from him, unless it is due to injury. Rex Ryan is setting high expectations early in Buffalo, so backing the veteran is the smart move.
LeSean McCoy’s points per game were the lowest of his career in 2014 since his rookie season. He had his second most rushing attempts at 312 (vs. 314 in 2013), but he was far less effective than usual with them, and his targets dropped by about 30 off his norm. Here is hoping the Bills ratchet up his role in the passing game. We’ve got 300 carries, 70 targets. Tough to pull his yards per carry higher than 4.2 but that will clearly make a huge difference how much fantasy bang for you buck you get. At any rate, the coaching staff appears very likely to marginalize the remaining backs on the roster. McCoy or bust.
Sammy Watkins might hit 1,000 yards, who knows what Percy Harvin is going to bring to the table and Robert Woods appears settled as a ho-hum third receiver. As long as the defense performs as Ryan would like, no reason for the passing game to open it up even if they were capable with Cassel or Manuel at the helm. As an aside, if Watkins doesn’t crack 1,000 with some vigor then dynasty owners who picked him last season are going to sour on him.
The last time the Bills had an exceptionally fantasy relevant tight end? I don’t know, Jay Riemersma? Pete Metzelaars? Maybe best to just go with never, but they aggressively signed Charles Clay which is weird. I’m intrigued and hopeful, but not overly optimistic.

Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons to the point he completed over 66% of his passes and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB last season. And now departed Mike Wallace probably wasn’t the easiest WR to play with. We see the upward trend continuing for Tanny, and who doesn’t love a projection with their QB throwing 600 passes?
Lamar Miller doesn’t wow us but he gets the job done, and doesn’t seem to have an immediate threat to his primary rushing role from rookie Jay Ajayi. Not many backs get this percentage of the workload, and by many accounts the team is improved, especially on defense. There is room for upside in these numbers.
The Dolphins can’t afford a sophomore slump from Jarvis Landry. There is dissenting opinion on how good Kenny Stills really is, coming from the Saints and perhaps being a product of the system and QB Drew Brees. I still thought he looked pretty good. Rookie DeVante Parker is currently out due to foot surgery. Jordan Cameron hasn’t been a pillar of health. While we believe the receiving corps is improved overall, there is definitely some risk here.

New England Patriots

How many games will Tom Brady ultimately be suspended? We have to assume four at this point pending the outcome of the appeal, so roughly a 25% decline across the board is factored into his projections.
As good as LeGarette Blount has looked at times (mostly versus the Indianapolis Colts), I have a hard time believing Bill Belichick is going to give him enough carries to be a reliable fantasy starter week in and week out. Certainly much harder to support the guys behind him on the depth chart though. Oh, and Blount misses Week 1.
Each of the main receivers have enough of an NFL career to reference, and not much changing around them, to anticipate major changes in their output. Rob Gronkowski is the lead dog. Julian Edelman the underneath high catch, low TD guy. Dave opened my eyes Brandon LaFell was more effective last season than I thought. Danny Amendola never saw the inside of a trainer’s room he didn’t like.

New York Jets

There should be some good battles between the Jets and Bills this season as they somewhat mirror one another right now. Strong defense, improved at the offensive skill positions, and haven’t a clue what they are going to get from their quarterback. In the Jets case, looks like the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick sits and Geno Smith gets another chance to make a good impression.
We currently have Fitzpatrick projected like the more regular starter. It is anybody’s guess how long the leash will be on Smith, assuming he starts Week 1. Maybe best to split the attempts about 50-50 for the season at this point, but certainly, no recommendation to draft either one.
It would be nice to see the old Stevan Ridley from 2012 who scored 12 touchdowns, but it doesn’t seem in the cards. The Chris Johnson experiment is one and done, and likely his career. Chris Ivory is the probable starter. He was two shy of 200 carries last season, the first 16-game season of his NFL career. Not a confident projection but tough to allocate more carries elsewhere given Ivory’s projected role.
Can Brandon Marshall motivate Geno Smith to force feed him the ball like Jay Cutler? Maybe. That could get him to 1,000 yards but a painfully low yards per catch, and touchdowns will be tough to come by. If its bad for Marshall, its likely worse for Eric Decker, even though he’s had a year with Smith. Devin Smith is a burner. Jace Amaro showed some promise but there is such a logjam at tight end after the top guys, no need to reach for him.
Overall, not a bad group of skill players, but Marshall is on the downside, a decent committee but no world beaters at running back, and we don’t think Smith or Fitzpatrick are capable of elevating these guys for a prolonged period.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

New York Jets Team Report

June 18, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

New offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a history with veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, so the J-E-T-S again turn to Geno Smith as their starter, but for how long is the question.

QB Geno Smith

A 2nd round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Smith has apparently been handed the Jets starting quarterback position once again in 2015. Let’s recap. As a rookie, Smith was handed the starting job when Mark Sanchez suffered a season-ending injury after the coaching staff played him with 3rd stringers in an exhibition game. Last season, management brought in Michael Vick to fill out the depth chart but ended up handing the starting job over to Smith sans competition. This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick was acquired to replace Vick but offensive coordinator Chan Gailey stated that Smith would open the season as the team’s starter only to have head coach Todd Bowles rebut him by making it clear there would be a quarterback competition. Here’s what you need to know. With 34 interceptions and seven lost fumbles in two seasons, Smith isn’t going to hold Fitzpatrick off for long. And even if he does, you have better options as a QB2 for your fantasy squad.

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Entering his 11th year in the league, Fitzpatrick is the quintessential journeyman. Good enough to stick around on some team’s roster. Never good enough to lead a winning team. In 2015, he figures to enter training camp behind Geno Smith on the Jets quarterback depth chart but an ascension to the starting position seems almost inevitable given Smith’s inability to avoid turning the ball over. However, since Fitzpatrick failed to rate as a solid fantasy quarterback when new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was the Buffalo Bills head coach, we don’t see him suddenly becoming better now as a 32-year old veteran.

QB Bryce Petty

Geno Smith isn’t the answer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been the answer either. Petty likely redshirts as a rookie in 2015 with a chance to start next season but it won’t be a surprise if he starts a few games at the end of the season if the Jets are no longer in playoff contention.

RB Chris Ivory

Chris Ivory might just be his own worst enemy. After five years in the league, he has played in 16 games just once (ironically enough in 2014) as his physical rushing style leaves him susceptible to injuries. Splitting time with Chris Johnson last season, Ivory rushing for 820 yards with a career-high six touchdowns and had a career year as a receiver with 18 receptions for 123 yards and a score. And therein lies part of the issue with Ivory. He doesn’t see the field on passing downs and doesn’t get to play much when the Jets are behind. With Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy having joined the team in the offseason, Ivory’s production last season likely represents his upside in 2015. In fact, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he has a more marginal role with either Ridley or Stacy taking away some early down work. We rate Ivory as a mid to lower tier RB3 with little upside and one who carries some risk due to his increased competition and injury history.

RB Stevan Ridley

If he were fully healthy, Ridley would rate as the Jets most talented running back. However, he may not even make the team after signing a one-year make it contract after suffering a torn ACL during Week 6 of last season. In order to regain fantasy relevance, Ridley will need to earn a starting role ahead of incumbent starter Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell and former St. Louis Ram Zac Stacy. Ridley’s career year came in 2012 when he rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 touchdowns in a strong New England Patriots offense. In New York, touchdown opportunities don’t figure to be as plentiful and as a back who struggles as a receiver (just 23 career receptions in four years), Ridley’s upside is as a mid to lower tier RB3. Monitor Ridley’s progress (offseason reports had his availability for the opening of training camp in doubt) and draft accordingly.

RB Zac Stacy

In the deep flyer category, we present Zac Stacy. After his “Yikes” Twitter comment when the Rams select Todd Gurley in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft, Stacy was traded to the Jets for a 7th round pick where he will compete with Chris Ivory and Stevan Ridley for a starting role with Bilal Powell likely handling pass catching duties. After producing 973 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 250 carries in essentially 12 games as a rookie in 2013, Stacy tumbled down the depth chart last season. With the Jets coaching staff not enamored with Ivory’s skill set and Ridley coming off a torn ACL, Stacy could surprise in 2015.

RB Bilal Powell

While Powell has produced respectable numbers when called upon, the truth is that the Jets lack of backfield depth is the only reason he was re-signed to a one-year, $2-million contract in the offseason. After career highs in most offensive categories in 2013 when he accumulated 969 total yards, he was a non-factor last season playing behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. This season, he is expected to assume a pass catching role in the Jets backfield and we hold out almost no hope that he will emerge as a starter. Powell just doesn’t possess enough upside to warrant a spot on your fantasy roster.

WR Brandon Marshall

After topping 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in seven consecutive seasons, Marshal suffered through a subpar campaign in 2014 as leg and rib injuries, as well as a punctured lung, caused him to miss three games. He finished the season with 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns, his worst production since his rookie season in 2006, wearing out his welcome in Chicago along the way. The team’s new management felt it was addition by subtraction in deciding to move Marshall to the New York Jets for a 5th round pick. In Chicago, Marshall won’t have Jay Cutler force-feeding him the ball and it certainly won’t be a surprise if the Jets issues at quarterback lead to another season with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards. In just one season, Marshall moves from being a potential top 10 fantasy wide receiver to no better than a WR3 entering 2015.

WR Eric Decker

Last season, we gave you two predictions on Decker. The first was that he would be the only Jets wide receiver to have any meaningful fantasy value and the second was that his production during his first year in New York would take a deep nose dive compared to his final season in Denver. Two for two. By season’s end, Decker had accumulated respectable production, catching 74 passes for 962 yards and five touchdowns. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he wasn’t of much use to them as he produced just 531 yards and four touchdowns during the first 13 weeks of the season (he missed one of those games with an injury). He was lights out to finish the season, catching 25 passes for 431 yards and a touchdown over his final four games. By then, his fantasy owners were looking forward to 2015 or leaving him on their benches. In 2015, Decker will once again suffer through quarterback issues with Geno Smith returning and Ryan Fitzpatrick in reserve. In addition, Brandon Marshall was acquired in a trade and he figures to assume the role of the team’s number one receiver. We like Decker as an upper tier fantasy reserve with some upside.

Jeremy Kerley

While it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that the Jets will curtail Kerley’s usage as a slot receiver in order to get rookie 2nd round pick Devin Smith on the field, we don’t follow that line of thinking. First off, Smith is better suited to line up outside in order to take advantage of his speed and, second, Kerley was signed to a four-year, $16-million contract extension last season that included $5.4-million in guarantees. While we don’t expect that he will ever match his production from the 2012 season when he caught 56 passes for 827 yards, he is a decent slow receiver who should approach 80-90 targets in Chan Gailey’s spread offense. With just seven touchdowns in four seasons and lacking big play ability, Kerley doesn’t hold much fantasy appeal particularly considering the Jets issues at quarterback.

WR Devin Smith

With a pair of big wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to go along with a decent option out of the slot in Jeremy Kerley, the Jets were missing a player to take the top off of a defense and provide some big plays. Hence, the selection of Ohio State product Devin Smith in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft. Smith’s solid speed and big play ability fill an obvious need in the Jets offense but new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s affinity for short and intermediate throws don’t bode well for his target count as a rookie nor does the presence of Marshall and Decker. While we see Smith as a player with the potential to develop into a solid starting wide receiver, he will likely be relegated to a deep threat role as a rookie making him waiver wire material in redraft formats.

TE Jace Amaro

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, Amaro’s experience playing in a fast paced, quick strike offense at Texas Tech didn’t have him arrive ready to contribute in a meaningful way playing in Marty Mornhinweg’s offense. However, with Chan Gailey having replaced Mornhingweg as the Jets offensive coordinator, Amaro has the chance to improve on his modest rookie production of 38 receptions, 345 yards and a pair of touchdowns. For that to happen, he will need to relegate Jeff Cumberland to a pure backup role after splitting the pass receiving role last year (53 targets for Amaro to 47 for Cumberland). However, since Cumberland has proven to be a solid receiving option over the last three years (78 receptions for 1,004 yards and 10 touchdowns) coupled with the presence of a pair of large, red zone target eating wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, we aren’t predicting a breakout season for Amaro in 2015. He is an intriguing TE2 with upside and a decent dynasty prospect.

Also see: New York Jets IDP Team Report | Buffalo Bills

New York Jets IDP Team Report

June 18, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

2015 brings with it big changes in the Big Apple. Rex Ryan is gone as head coach of the Jets, replaced by former Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Given what Bowles was able to accomplish with the Redbirds in 2014, it will be interesting to see what he can do with all the talent he inherited on defense with Gang Green.

Defensive Linemen

There may not be a team in the NFL with a better pair of 3-4 ends than the Jets possess in Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson. Both are excellent two-way players capable of the sort of strong tackle numbers that equate to consistent fantasy production. Both have already posted top-10 fantasy seasons. In fact, Richardson and Wilkerson (in that order) were the No. 2 and No. 3, 3-4 ends in the NFL last year per Pro Football Focus, trailing only J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans.

Richardson’s top-10 season came a year ago, and the third-year pro didn’t mince words while speaking with Dom Cosentino of NJ.com. “According to Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson,” Cosentino wrote, “the NFL’s best player last season was Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson.”

I don’t know that we’d go that far, but both ends are top-15 fantasy options up front in 2015. The Jets doubled down at defensive end by adding USC lineman Leonard Williams with the No. 6 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, but with Richardson and Wilkerson in front of him Williams will be hard pressed to see enough snaps to have consistent redraft value in IDP leagues this season.

Linebackers

The fun doesn’t stop there with the Jets. In addition to a pair of potential top-10 linemen in Richardson and Wilkerson, the Jets also have a pair of IDP-relevant linebackers in Demario Davis and veteran David Harris, both of whom finished the 2014 campaign among the top 25 fantasy linebackers.

Harris, who has topped 120 tackles in each of the past three seasons, just re-upped for three more years with the team. The 31-year-old told Cosentino that he’s sold on the team’s direction under Bowles. “After hearing the plans and vision of Coach Bowles and Mike Maccagnan,” Harris said, “there was no doubt I wanted to return, help win a Super Bowl with the Green & White, and retire a Jet. Thanks to everyone in Jets Nation.”

Harris isn’t a “sexy” IDP pick, nor is he likely to improve much on last year’s 24th-place finish among linebackers. However, Harris also isn’t likely to pull the sorts of weekly disappearing acts that Davis has become notorious for in IDP circles. Both merit consideration and third fantasy linebackers, with Harris the preferable option.

Defensive Backs

Second-year pro Calvin Pryor will slide to strong safety (his natural position) in 2015, and Pryor told Cosentino he can’t wait. “I’m going to be back to my old self, doing what I do, being down in the box, and just tracking the ball down,” Pryor said. “That was music to my ears. That made my day go by better. I’m definitely enjoying it.”

The move could mean a big bump in IDP value for Pryor, provided he plays up to the potential the Jets saw when they selected the Louisville product in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. IDP owners appear to be skeptical given his modest asking price in early drafts, which could make Pryor an interesting upside pick for fantasy owners who like to wait before selecting defensive backs.

And no, you aren’t going to see me wax poetic about Darrelle Revis here. Elite cover cornerbacks almost always make for lousy IDPs. After all, if opposing quarterbacks are afraid to throw at you, then it’s rather hard to rack up stats.

Also see: New York Jets Team Report | Buffalo Bills IDP