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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Report

July 20, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Expect some rough spots for Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston. He is a rookie after all. But, there will also likely be some shining moments in the upcoming 2015 season, too.

Expect some rough spots for Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston. He is a rookie after all. But, there will also likely be some shining moments in the upcoming 2015 season, too.

QB Jameis Winston

The Bucs hope to have solved their quarterback issues with the selection of Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston with the 1st pick in this year’s NFL Draft. While that may be the case, we’re pretty certain that Winston isn’t going to solve the quarterback issues on your fantasy team. Winston’s pedigree suggests that he will have a long and productive professional career provided he can remain free of the off the field issues that plagued his college career. With a pair of solid receiving options at wide receiver as well as potential breakout options at running back and tight end, the Buccaneers offense should be much improved from its poor showing a year ago. However, the team’s offensive line remains a question mark and given the plethora of solid fantasy options at quarterback, it just doesn’t make sense to reach for Winston in your fantasy draft. He rates as a low end QB2 in redraft formats and a mid-tier dynasty prospect.

RB Doug Martin

After bursting onto the scene as a rookie in 2012 with 1,454 rushing yards, 472 receiving yards and 12 total touchdowns, Martin has suffered through a pair of injury plagued and unproductive seasons. After missing 10 games in 2013 and averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, he wasn’t much better last season, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry in 11 games while gaining 494 yards. As a receiver, Martin has also seen his production diminished, catching just 13 passes last year (a far cry from his career high 49 in 2012), as he lost playing time on passing downs to Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims. With the Bucs failing to pick up his 5th year option, Martin is entering the final year of his rookie contract and there are no guarantees the team will afford him an opportunity to earn a long term extension in 2015. With Charles Sims drafted in 2013 by the team’s new management regime, they have no ties to Martin and the expectation is that the two will battle in the preseason for a starting role. While Martin may win that role, we expect the team to use a timeshare at the position, making Martin a somewhat risky low end RB3 with little upside given the Bucs expected struggles on offense and shoddy offensive line.

RB Charles Sims

After the Bucs selected Charles Sims in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, they sent a pile of signals that they planned on giving him a solid chance to unseat Doug Martin as the team’s starter or at worst hand him a big role as the team’s main backup. Unfortunately, Sims suffered an ankle injury that caused him to miss the first nine weeks of the season. From that point on, Sims was abysmal, averaging 2.8 yards per carry on 66 carries and finding the end zone just once. At 6’0” and 214 pounds and possessing good but not great speed (4.48 40 time), Sims has physical attributes that suggest his ceiling is as a mid-tier starting running back. Heading into this season, Sims will battle Martin for the starting role. Given Martin’s contract status (final year of his rookie deal) and lack of success over the past two years, Sims will be given every opportunity to take over in the starting lineup. However, even if that happens, his ceiling is fairly low given the Bucs will be starting a rookie quarterback and their issues along the offensive line. Consider Sims a mid-tier RB4 with more upside than some of the running backs available at that spot in your draft.

RB Mike James

Two years into his career, James has been the victim of his own misfortune or injuries in consecutive seasons. As a rookie 6th round pick in 2013, James entered the season as Doug Martin’s backup but after joining the starting lineup in midseason when Martin was placed on injured reserve, he suffered a broken ankle in Week 10. That led to the drafting of Charles Sims in 2014 but James once again couldn’t take advantage of a Sims injury and Martin’s ineffectiveness, eventually falling to 4th on the depth chart behind Martin, Sims and Bobby Rainey. A powerful runner, James upside is to beat out Rainey and emerge as the Bucs short yardage runner.

RB Bobby Rainey

After emerging as the Bucs leading rusher in 2013 as injuries to Doug Martin and Mike James allowed him to take over as the team’s starter over the final seven games of the season, Rainey fell to 3rd on the depth chart last season behind Martin and rookie 3rd round pick Charles Sims. The truth is that Rainey is little more than a fill in at running back, lacking size, speed and agility. More quick than fast, Rainey’s best hope for playing time is in a pass receiving role (33 receptions for 315 yards and a touchdown on just 45 targets last season), but the Bucs seem determined to hand that role over to Sims. Barring a Martin trade (not as remote a possibility as you might think), Rainey has no fantasy value in 2015.

WR Mike Evans

If there is one Buc to have on your fantasy squad in 2015, that players is wide receiver Mike Evans. Taken with the 7th overall selection in last year’s NFL Draft, Evans burst onto the scene catching 68 of his 123 targets for 1,051 yards and a whopping 12 touchdowns. That was especially impressive given the state of the team’s quarterback play in 2014. At 6’4” and 231 pounds with great leaping ability, Evans is an excellent option in the red zone and he also possesses solid deep speed as evidenced by his 15.5 average yards per reception. In 2015, there is only one risk that Evans brings to the table – the team will be starting a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston. However, since we don’t expect Winston to perform any worse than last year’s tandem of Mike Glennon and Josh McCown, look for Evans to catch more passes for more yards in 2015 although we can’t predict that he will match last year’s touchdown count. We rate Evans as a lower tier WR1 who should emerge as a top five wide receiver over the next couple of years.

WR Vincent Jackson

After posting a career year with the Bucs in 2012 with 1,384 yards and eight touchdowns, Jackson has seen his receiving yards and touchdowns drop in each of the last two seasons. With the team’s struggles at quarterback in 2014, Vjax finished the season with 70 receptions, 1,002 yards and just two touchdowns. At 32 years of age, it is fair to ask just how much Jackson has left to offer as a starting wide receiver, and whether he will remain a top 35 fantasy wide receiver with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston leading the Bucs offense and 2nd year wide receiver Mike Evans emerging as the team’s top receiving threat. On the other hand, Vjax’s decline in fantasy appeal last season had more to do with his lack of touchdowns that his receiving yards. Given Evans emergence, Vjax’s age and Winston’s expected struggles, we view Jackson as an upper tier WR4 who could surprise in 2015.

WR Kenny Bell

Taken in the 5th round of this year’s draft, Bell joins a Bucs squad that features a pair of solid starting wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson but has struggled to get production from its backups and slot options in recent years. At 6’1” and 195 pounds, Bell has decent size and he ran a 4.42 40 at the combine, traits that make him a potential replacement for the 32-year old Jackson at some point. As a rookie, he will battle Louis Murphy to be the team’s 3rd receiver and main option out of the slot. Since Murphy performed well in that role last season, Bell has his work cut out for him in terms of securing meaningful playing time as a rookie. While we like him as a mid to lower tier dynasty prospect, Bell has little value in redraft formats.

WR Louis Murphy

The Bucs have gotten precious little production out of their backup wide receivers over the last several years but Murphy emerged to be a solid performer given his limited opportunities last season, catching 31 of his 56 targets for 380 yards and a pair of touchdowns despite appearing in just 11 games. His reward was the Bucs drafting Kenny Bell in the 5th round of this year’s draft. Since Tampa Bay is clearly a team that is building for the future, it won’t be a surprise if Murphy loses playing time to the rookie at some point during the 2015 season despite his solid performance last year.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s draft, Seferian-Jenkins endured a difficult rookie season similar to what most tight ends suffer through. Competing with Brandon Myers and Luke Stocker for playing time before a back injury ended his season in Week 12, Seferian-Jenkins totaled just 21 receptions on his 38 targets for 221 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Oddly enough, he is getting a fair amount of love from the fantasy community heading into 2015. However, Myers and Stocker are still on the roster and former Buc Tim Wright was claimed off waivers and could steal looks in the passing game. With a pair of big wide receivers in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Seferian-Jenkins isn’t likely to see a ton of opportunities in the red zone. While we’re fine grabbing Seferian-Jenkins as a mid to lower tier TE2, we can’t endorse him as your starting tight end.

Also see: Tampa Bay Buccaneers IDP Team Report · Carolina Panthers Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

NFL Preseason Week 4 Projections and Rankings Update, Team Notes

August 30, 2014 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Buffalo Bills

Rookie WR Sammy Watkins reinjured his ribs and left the Bills Week 4 preseason game. He had trouble with his ribs before, so this is certainly concerning. As for the state of the whole Bills offense after a 23-0 drubbing by the Detroit Lions, it looks like I’m whoring myself out to cheer for another team again this season. Please leave suggestions in the comments.

In all seriousness about my allegiance to the Bills, props to P Brian Moorman for his open letter to the Buffalo fan base after his release.

Hey, the Bills could bring in free agent QB Kyle Orton. I’ll drink to that!

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton said he has no doubt he will play in the Panthers Week 1 game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite his fractured ribs. Play and play like Cam Newton are two different things. Here is hoping he doesn’t get a painful welcome to the season greeting from Lavonte David or Mark Barron.

Someone set me straight, I actually think Jonathan Stewart is worthy of a last round pick on hopes (prayers?) he can stay healthy to start the season and impress. Then trade him.

Chicago Bears

WR Santonio Holmes caught a TD and returned one punt in the Bears final preseason game, as he continues to make his case to latch on as the team’s third WR with Marquess Wilson sidelined indefinitely. I still don’t think he makes the “On The Radar” section of our rankings, but damn, who can forget that Super Bowl catch?

Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Hill got a heavy workload and looked good doing so in the Bengals last preseason game. The next day, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was released.

Cleveland Browns

Josh Gordon‘s one-year suspension was upheld on appeal. He can’t play in the CFL either, if you were concerned about that. He should have lots of time on his hands now, which can only lead to good things…

Denver Broncos

WR Wes Welker is optimistic but overall uncertain to play for Week 1 of the regular season.

Green Bay Packers

WR Jarrett Boykin received some praise from the head coach. About time? I haven’t heard anything positive all offseason and it would seem to me Boykin’s fantasy value was moving down. He stepped in admirably last year, and this would be one of the teams where their WR3 has value. Keep in mind, the Packers’ TE position is a mess. Davante Adams is still the better longer-term play over Boykin.

Miami Dolphins

I eluded to this in our recent RB Tiers + Strategy article, and I’m making a change, giving Knowshon Moreno a bigger piece of the RB pie in Miami ahead of Lamar Miller.

New England Patriots

WR Aaron Dobson saw his first game action of the preseason the other night, returning from a foot injury. The already muddled receiving corps on the Pats gets even murkier. Pick your poison between Dobson, Kenbrell Thompkins and Brandon LaFell. Or better yet, leave them be.

The Pats acquired TE Tim Wright from the Bucs along with a draft pick for Logan Mankins. Wright performed well last year on the receiver depleted Bucs as a rookie, but was lost amongst a myriad of TE options in Bucs training camp. Now he’s with the Pats, fantasy owners are getting excited. I wouldn’t get too excited, except as a potential short term option IF Rob Gronkowski can’t play Week 1. Which, is still very much a possibility, of course. We may not know for certain until about an hour before kickoff, Sunday September 7th.

Oakland Raiders

Matt Schaub has a banged up elbow. Derek Carr looked great in preseason action. QB controversy? Hey, as long as they don’t throw the kid to the wolves like the Houston Texans did with his older brother, right?

Hey look, a Denarius Moore sighting. I received a dynasty league trade offer from the Moore owner in my league the next morning.

Philadelphia Eagles

RB Chris Polk continues to sit out game action, missing the Eagles final preseason game. He would be in the handcuff discussion if anything happened to LeSean McCoy, but only if Polk himself can get healthy.

Seattle Seahawks

RB Christine Michael has a hamstring injury, missed the Seahawks final preseason game and is behind Robert Turbin on the depth chart. If looking to draft a lottery ticket in your draft at RB, then consider looking elsewhere.

St. Louis Rams

RB Benny Cunningham is getting on the fantasy radar, having outplayed Zac Stacy and rookie Tre Mason in preseason. I wouldn’t worry too much about Cunningham displacing Stacy at this point, but it is always good to know the right replacement players if the starter goes down.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rookie RB Charles Sims is expected to be placed on the NFL’s injured reserve – designated to return list, meaning he could be brought back to the active roster after about the midpoint of the season. If Doug Martin is rolling we shouldn’t be too worried about a returning Sims for redraft, but pretty clear the Bucs love the kid, so be aware.

Kickers

Could this position get more annoying for fantasy football? Matt Prater gets himself suspended for four games and now with roster cuts in full swing, some name kickers are getting the axe. Be wary of Alex Henery – Eagles, Connor Barth – Bucs, and, and … someone else I’m forgetting … have I mentioned I hate kickers?

Points are points, so you’ve got to keep tabs on them, even though we’d rather spend our time elsewhere, like playing Fantasy Throwdown, perhaps? (You can choose to remove kickers from your Throwdown challenges, by the way.)

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 10, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Doug Martin (22) of the Buccaneers runs the ball during the NFL regular season game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. October 13, 2013; Photographer: Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire

Are we still calling Doug Martin, “Muscle Hamster”? There is a lot of RB depth on the Bucs, but we expect Martin earns a solid majority of the touches to rank amongst a solid group of second tier running backs for fantasy football. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB J. McCown
7 · 25th
255-420-3,200 16 TD 13 INT
30-115 1 TD
–
241.5
QB M. Glennon
NR
50-85-600 2 TD 2 INT
0-00 0 TD
–
38.0
RB D. Martin
2 · 9th –
250-1,050 8 TD
40-350 2 TD
200.0
RB M. James
NR –
15-75 0 TD
5-25 0 TD
10.0
RB B. Rainey
NR –
10-45 0 TD
10-60 0 TD
10.5
RB C. Sims
NR –
65-280 1 TD
30-215 0 TD
55.5
WR V. Jackson
2 · 9th – –
80-1,250 8 TD
173.0
WR M. Evans
8 · 46th – –
52-800 5 TD
110.0
TE T. Wright
NR – –
32-330 1 TD
39.0
TE A. Seferian-Jenkins
NR – –
10-105 1 TD
16.5
TE B. Myers
NR – –
28-310 1 TD
37.0

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Josh McCown

Considered a career backup entering the 2013 season, a funny thing happened to the 35-year old McCown during his second season in Chicago. He established himself as a starter, signing a two-year contract in the offseason to take over the reigns in Tampa Bay. Subbing in for an injured Jay Cutler, McCown started five games for the Bears last season, winning three and nearly helping propelling the team to the playoffs. In those five starts, he threw for 1,543 yard with 11 touchdowns and just one interception, topping 300 yards three times while averaging 26.2 PPG. Of course, he had a pair of big, solid wide receivers to throw to in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery as well as a solid pass catching running back in Matt Forte. In Tampa Bay, he inherits a pair of big, not quite as solid wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and rookie 1st round pick Mike Evans as well as a pair of solid receivers in the backfield in Doug Martin and rookie 3rd round pick Charles Sims. Wait a minute. While there seem to be plenty of similarities between McCown’s supporting casts in Chicago and Tampa Bay, we aren’t buying into him as an upper tier fantasy backup. There is just too much history of subpar production, his receivers (including tight ends) were more established in Chicago and we expect the Tampa Bay offense to be more conservative under new offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford (based on Lovie Smith’s orders). If you like him, take a flier and grab him as a low end QB2.

RB Doug Martin

Martin suffered through the sophomore blues in 2014 as he struggled during the first games of the year before he suffered a torn labrum in Week 7 that ended his season. He finished the year with 456 rushing yards, 66 receiving yards and a touchdown but that was largely volume based as he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. That was a far cry form the 4.6 yards per carry average he posted as a rookie in 2013, although the Bucs offensive line wasn’t nearly as effective. Looking forward to 2014, on the plus side, we can be fairly certain that head coach Lovie Smith will ensure that offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford runs a ball control, heavily run based offense. On the other hand, the Bucs depth chart at running back has quickly evolved to one of the deepest in the league with rookie 3rd round pick Charles Sims, Mike James and Bobby Rainey behind Martin. While the Bucs have said they want to use more of a committee approach in 2014, we expect that Martin’s combination of speed, power, agility and explosiveness will result in him seeing a significant majority of the touches out of the Bucs backfield. We rate him amongst a solid group of second tier running backs.

RB Charles Sims

The Bucs surprised many by selecting West Virginia’s Charles Sims early in the 3rd round of this year’s NFL Draft. With a solid depth chart at running back (Doug Martin, Mike James and Bobby Rainey), Sims’ selection was somewhat of a luxury pick but the Bucs have sent signals that they intend to give him plenty of touches in his rookie season as Martin’s main backup. We’re just not certain that we fully buy into that notion. At 6’0” and 214 pounds, Sims has solid but not great size for the position to go along with better than average speed (4.48 40 time) and elusiveness. A solid pass catcher out of the backfield, Sims will need to learn how to run out of plays with the quarterback under center in the pros. His receiving prowess figures to earn him plenty of snaps in 2014 and that makes Sims a decent flex option in larger PPR leagues, not to mention a solid handcuff with upside if injury strikes Martin again. Dynasty leaguers should like, but not love, Sims, given Martin is entering his third year in the league.

RB Mike James

One year into his career, James has quickly found out that the NFL often stands for Not For Long. The former 6th round pick entered his rookie season in 2013 hoping to establish himself as Doug Martin’s backup and quickly found himself in the starting line up when Martin was lost for the season in Week 7. Unfortunately, James suffered a broken ankle, ending his season in Week 10, and watched helplessly as the Bucs chose Charles Sims in the 3rd round of this year’s draft and quickly signaled that he would enter the season as Martin’s main backup. That leaves James fighting for table scraps in 2014.

RB Bobby Rainey

Cast aside by the Browns part of the way through the season, Rainey took advantage of injuries to Doug Martin and Mike James to chalk up 566 rushing yards and six total touchdowns in 2013. While he may have helped some fantasy owners through injuries and bye weeks last year (especially in Weeks 11 and 14 when he topped 100 rushing yards), the diminutive Rainey doesn’t appear to have a long term future in the league as a starter or quality backup. Not that big, not that fast, not that shifty, Rainey averaged 3.8 yards per carry and 3.1 yards per reception and enters 2014 stuck behind Martin, rookie Charles Sims and James on the Bucs depth chart at running back.

WR Vincent Jackson

While the Bucs haven’t done much winning during Jackson’s two year stay in Tampa Bay, you certainly can’t lay the blame for that at his feet. In that period, he has been the team’s top receiving threat, hauling in 150 passes for 2,608 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 11 PPG despite the team’s subpar play at quarterback. In 2014, Josh McCown takes over under center to help rectify the quarterback situation but the team has also signaled that he will increase its use of the run under new offensive coordinator Jeff Telford. However, with rookie 1st round pick Mike Evans lining up opposite Jackson, little depth behind those two at wide receiver and solid yet not spectacular receiving options at tight end, we expect Jackson to replicate his 2013 production again this season. In fact, it won’t be a surprise if posts a career year in 2014 at the tender age of 31. Consider him a mid to upper tier WR1.

WR Mike Evans

With a hole at the wide receiver position opposite Vincent Jackson, the Bucs used the 7th overall pick in the draft to select Mike Evans. The 6’4”, 231 pound Texas A&M product enjoyed a productive collegiate career and was widely considered the second best receiving prospect in the draft after Clemson’s Sammy Watkins. In Tampa Bay, Evans will open the season in the starting lineup and with little receiving talent behind him, should see plenty of targets in his rookie season. While rookie receivers have generally earned their bad reputation over the past decade, it is becoming more common for them to be productive early in their careers. Given Evans solid size-speed combination, his ability in the red zone and the Bucs lack of depth at the position, we rate him as an mid-tier WR4 with huge upside. In dynasty formats, he should go off the board no later than the 3rd or 4th overall pick.

WR Chris Owusu, WR Robert Herron and WR Louis Murphy

For the last several years, the top backup receiver spot for the Bucs has been a black hole for fantasy purposes. Outside of the odd solid performance from the likes of Tiquan Underwood, Preston Parker or Dezmon Briscoe (all since departed), the team hasn’t received much production behind their starters at wide receiver. And with Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans at wide receiver, a pair of solid pass catching tight ends in Tim Wright and Brandon Myers, and solid receivers out of the backfield in Doug Martin and Charles Sims, we expect that situation won’t change much under the direction of new offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford. Barring injury, Owusu, Herron and Murphy won’t provide any fantasy value in 2014.

TE Brandon Myers

After doing little during his first three years in the league, Myers emerged as a solid receiving option in 2012 with the Oakland Raiders, proving to be steady and reliable, reaching career highs in all major categories with 79 receptions for 806 yards and four touchdowns. Unfortunately, he signed with the New York Giants prior to the 2013 season and quickly proved that much of his 2012 production was the result of circumstance. As in, when your team is consistently trailing and there are few solid options in the passing game, you will get plenty of looks. Myers saw his production plummet to 47 receptions for 522 yards and four touchdowns, as he never really jelled with quarterback Eli Manning. With a plethora of solid options at tight end, not to mention excellent receiving options in Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans and Doug Martin, don’t expect major targets or production from Myers in 2014.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins

With a veteran retread in Brandon Myers and the undersized Tim Wright atop their tight end depth chart, the Bucs used a 2nd round pick to acquire Washington’s Austin Seferian-Jenkins. At 6’6” and 262 pounds, Seferian-Jenkins possesses outstanding size to go along with above average speed. He also proved to be a solid route runner in college as well as an excellent option in the red zone (21 touchdowns in 38 games). However, look for 2014 to be a redshirt year for Seferian-Jenkins. He rates as a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats.

TE Tim Wright

Opportunity knocked for Wright in 2013 when Luke Stocker was lost for the season in September and the undrafted rookie free agent answered the bell, catching 54 of his 76 targets for 571 yards and five touchdowns. While that is clearly solid production, tight ends that measure 6’3” and 220 pounds aren’t valuable commodities in the eyes of new Bucs head coach Lovie Smith, who prefers tight ends that can block. The Bucs plan to employ plenty of two tight end sets in 2014 but there are no guarantees that Wright will earn a big role. Wright is waiver wire material in all formats.

TE Luke Stocker

Expected to take over as the Bucs starting tight end last season, Stocker, the Bucs 2011 4th round pick, played in just two games before being placed on injured reserve with a hip injury. With Tim Wright serving as a solid receiving option in 2013, Brandon Myers having been signed as a free agent and the team adding Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, Stocker’s time in Tampa could be coming to an end.

Also see: Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | New Orleans Saints
 

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