Tiers of Starting Pitching – Elite, Superstars and Studs

March 11, 2011 By Bodhizefa 10 Comments

Ladies and gentlemen, I bring you my Tiers of Starting Pitching for 2011.

This year, I’ve incorporated Defense Factors, as explained in my Team Defense Grades article, as well as Park Factors, both of which have a huge impact on pitching analysis in my opinion. The plus and minus symbols for each are from the perspective of the pitcher. A is good for the pitcher, while a is better. A is bad for the pitcher, while a is worse, and some are graded Neutral, or average. For more detail on the defense grades, check the introduction and legend in the aforementioned article.

A big thanks to FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Baseball Reference, and my old friends at Mastersball.com and RotoJunkieFix for all their help over the years in figuring things out.

I hope these rankings help you find great fantasy value drafting your starting rotation this season. Post questions and comments below, or in the forum, as I’d be happy to discuss any of the rankings.

Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

[Editor’s Note: Rankings updated March 21st.]

Tier 1: The King’s Throne

1st round talent

1. Felix Hernandez, RHP, SEA (2.27 ERA, 3.11 FIP, -0.84 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I once had a man crush on Austin Kearns, so I bought a bobblehead of him. He proceeded to suck ever since. Then I fell for Travis Hafner. He peaked soon thereafter, and then he fell off the face of the earth. I won’t be purchasing a Felix Hernandez bobblehead. You’re welcome. Long live the King.

2. Roy Halladay, RHP, PHI (2.44 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.63 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s amazing, and he’s a helluva lot of fun to own on your team, both real and fantasy. Draft and enjoy.

Tier 1.5: The Superstars

Pitchers who have Tier 1 ability but are more likely to be Tier 2

3. Tim Lincecum, RHP, SF (3.43 ERA, 3.13 FIP, +0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Right-handed pitchers are always going to find it easier to pitch in AT&T Park as it’s very difficult for left-handed hitters to hit anything over the wall in right. We miss you, Barry Bonds. In other words, even as Lincecum’s fastball has continued to decline, he’s been able to fend off a massive spike in homerun rate in part due to his home park (and in part due to the fact that he’s a fairly crafty pitcher who has continued to up his groundball rates every single year in the league). I don’t think he’s an unmitigated fantasy uber-star any longer, but he’s still an ace pitcher who you can expect to have an ERA in the high 2.00’s or low 3.00’s along with elite strikeout rates and a WHIP in the 1.10’s. I still love me some Timmah!

4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, LAD (2.91 ERA, 3.07 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
At 23, Kershaw is already one of the better pitchers in all of baseball, and there’s a chance he continues to improve in 2011. His control steadily improved over the course of last season (with the one blip being August) to where he was throwing a 4.57 K/BB in September. He has elite level talent and could eventually become the type of low-2’s ERA, 1.00’s WHIP, 230+ strikeout pitcher that dominates fantasy leagues. I don’t quite expect that from him in 2011, but what I do anticipate is for him to throw more innings this season allowing for 220+ strikeouts with his ERA maybe rising a tad due to increased homeruns given up against right-handers and the other stats staying pretty similar to 2010. He’s already an awesome hurler who could be one of the best 3 or 4 pitchers in baseball in the next year or two.

5. Cliff Lee, LHP, PHI (3.18 ERA, 2.63 FIP, +0.55 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
My favorite thing about Lee is that he seems more likely to walk across his lawn than walk a hitter these days. That’s a daily counter I’d love to see on ESPN’s ticker. Fantasy-wise, he’s a workhorse who will give you a low 3’s ERA, 180+ K’s, and an elite level WHIP to go with lots of Wins. The move to the NL full-time will serve him well. I’m a fan – big time.

Tier 2: The Superstars, Part Deux

6. CC Sabathia, LHP, NYY (3.18 ERA, 3.54 FIP, -0.36 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
New York’s park factor doesn’t really affect CC as much because being left-handed allows him to neutralize it a bit. And yes, I realize he’s trended downward peripherally the last couple of seasons, but I’m not too worried about it. Expect much more of the same with Sabathia as he puts up a FIP near 3.40 but likely outperforms it due to the good outfield defense for the Yankees. He’ll add 190+ strikeouts, a good WHIP, and a bevy of Wins. And hey, he’s slimmer this year, too, so you can even enjoy watching him more as he jiggles less on the mound!

7. Mat Latos, RHP, SD (2.92 ERA, 3.03 FIP, -0.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Latos is an elite pitching talent in an elite pitcher’s park with a good defense behind him. In other words, he’s an elite fantasy pitcher. It’s possible the Padres may put an innings cap on him, so don’t bid for more than 200 innings of production. He’s basically Jake Peavy 2.0, and I’m looking at Peavy’s 2005 season as my optimistic projection for Latos this season.

8. Justin Verlander, RHP, DET (3.37 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.33 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Another season with a 3.25-3.50 ERA, 1.20ish WHIP (you can go a little lower if you like here), and 215 K sounds pretty nice. Sign me up for this workhorse.

9. Jon Lester, LHP, BOS (3.25 ERA, 3.21 FIP, +0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Lester’s an ace, and he’s fun to both watch and to own. He’s already a strikeout machine, he keeps the ball in the park, and he induces groundballs at a very high clip. There’s even room for improvement in his walk rate. Bid on more of the same from him in 2011 as he showed in 2010, and there’s small hope for a high 2.00’s ERA within him.

10. Josh Johnson, RHP, FLA (2.30 ERA, 2.46 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Johnson is a certified fantasy ace at this point, but it’s tough to project him for much more than 190 innings with his injury history. Last year may also be the peak of what you could expect from him strikeout-wise, too. I lean toward him having an ERA in the very low 3.00’s, 190+ K, and a WHIP in the 1.10’s.

11. Tommy Hanson, RHP, ATL (3.33 ERA, 3.34 FIP, -0.01 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I think he finally puts it all together this year and makes a run at 190+ K with a low 3.00’s ERA and a WHIP in the low-to-mid 1.10’s. We have a fantasy ace in the making right here.

12. Jered Weaver, RHP, LAA (3.01 ERA, 3.13 FIP, -0.12 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Weaver went out and became an ace last year which was somewhat unexpected given his stagnant growth curve. Everyone will assume regression, and they’d be right, but Bourjos in the outfield for a guy like Weaver could mean a world of difference for the likes of Weaver and his flyballing ways. Even with regression in ERA, a 3.50 ERA, an excellent mid-1.10’s WHIP, and 190 K doesn’t seem out of reach.

Tier 3: The Studs

13. David Price, LHP, TB (2.72 ERA, 3.48 FIP, -0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Part of the reason David Price was able to outperform his FIP last year was because his big park and excellent defense aided him to a 1.96 ERA at home. Those factors really haven’t changed much as both project to be extremely favorable for Price in 2011. So while everyone exclaims that Price is due for a regression, note that the regression may not be as severe as everyone believes. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on Price outperforming his FIP again, although more in the -0.20 to -0.30 Differential range than the -0.76 he posted last year. There’s also still a good chance that Price continues to hone his control, too, which could help offset a probable increase in his homeruns allowed. I’ve learned to trust talent in the past when it’s borderline as to how the numbers will fall. In Price’s case, he’s plenty talented. And so is that defense. I’d go pretty strong on Price in 2011.

14. Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP, COL (2.88 ERA, 3.08 FIP, -0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Expectations have to be managed here as Ubaldo is obviously a very solid pitcher, but there’s some normalization in store for him on multiple fronts (BABIP, HR/9, and probably LOB% as well). Not to mention the fact that he’s working in an awful ballpark with what is now a mediocre to bad defense. Maybe I’m the only one who thinks Jimenez was in a little over his head last year in terms of his fantasy rate stats, but I’d rather win by being a bit too cautious with a Coors pitcher than being too cavalier. He seems likely to return to 3.25-3.50 ERA territory with low 1.20’s WHIP and 200+ K. Those are great numbers, but they’re not elite. Know the difference.

15. Chris Carpenter, RHP, STL (3.22 ERA, 3.71 FIP, -0.49 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Early injury issues this Spring remind me that Carpenter’s not getting any younger. For his career, Carpenter has been pretty much a workhorse unless he had a major injury. But I think he’s at the age where we can start to anticipate incremental drops in innings each year due to small, nagging injuries. When he’s on the field, he’s going to be vintage Carpenter, but I’d project 190 innings with anything else being extra value.

16. Dan Haren, RHP, LAA (3.91 ERA, 3.71 FIP, +0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Haren’s due for a solid bounceback season as his HR/FB normalizes. And as long as Peter Bourjos is in the outfield, the Angels profile as a plus defense. He’s one of the more durable and reliable pitchers in baseball, so while he probably won’t be able to put up low-3.00 ERA’s in the AL, I’d still anticipate mid-3.00’s with plenty of K and a good WHIP in the high 1.10’s.

17. Cole Hamels, LHP, PHI (3.06 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.61 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
Noteworthy for Hamels in 2010 was an uptick in velocity, a large increase in strikeout rate from the past couple of seasons, and the addition of a cut fastball as a new look pitch. He’s also a pitcher who has a lot of variance from his ERA to FIP. Occasionally, there are pitchers who are able to consistently out-produce their FIP’s, and Hamels has done that three out of the last four seasons. Does that mean he’ll do it again? I have no clue. But he’s a good pitcher who you can probably count on for 180 K, a WHIP in the 1.10’s, and an ERA south of 3.50. Bid on those numbers and you’re unlikely to be disappointed. And if you happen to catch him in Spring Training, look at the velo numbers on the radar gun. The closer they are to 92+ mph on the fastball, the more confident I am that he can increase the K’s and lower the ERA from that projection.

18. Francisco Liriano, LHP, MIN (3.62 ERA, 2.73 FIP, +0.89 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
The Minnesota coaches and brass obviously aren’t in love with him for some reason, but I think it’s easy to have a man crush on this guy as a fantasy owner. He has excellent component stats, his fastball is back, and it’s always more fun loving a guy who isn’t even appreciated properly by his own team. Injury caveats apply, of course, so don’t bid on much more than 190 innings worth of production. But who doesn’t want a 3.25+ ERA, 190+ K and a WHIP in the low 1.20’s?

19. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, MIL (3.84 ERA, 3.02 FIP, +0.82 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s getting better, but I wonder how much his control can continue improving. And he’s going to need it to improve with the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt and the rest of the poor defense behind him. In any case, I think he’s good for a 3.50-3.75 ERA, a 1.28-1.34 WHIP, and 200 or so strikeouts. He isn’t the most durable of pitchers, so bet on 180 innings with anything more being a bonus. He’s got upside, though, so if you’re high on him, I can understand the sentiment. But don’t forget – Yuni!

20. Matt Cain, RHP, SF (3.14 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.53 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Ability to Annoy Sabermetricians of Old:
Cain’s scare with his elbow this Spring was an especially stark shock considering how much of a workhorse he has become. Let’s hope it was just a bump in the road, but knock down inning projections slightly on him (to 205) as the Giants may want to make sure they protect their investment what with all the added playoff innings he tossed last year. As for his stats, I’d guess on an ERA in the low 3’s with the positive park and defense factors coupled with his anti-FIP x-factor ability extraordinaire.

21. Daniel Hudson, RHP, ARI (2.45 ERA, 3.38 FIP, -0.93 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Unfortunately, the sterling ERA after he was shipped to Arizona in the Edwin Jackson trade probably means he won’t be too much of a bargain on draft day. What I really like about Hudson is that he’s got a good means of attack versus lefties or righties. Against lefties, his change-up is an excellent offering, and that plus good command of his fastball allows him to overmatch left-handed hitters. And against righties, his delivery is a bit deceptive and allows him to eat them up high in the zone (as evidenced in his high Infield Flyball Rate against right-handed hitters). Overall upside if he’s healthy: 3.25 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 175 K. There’s downside in the HR/FB ratio, so his ERA could blimp upwards with some bad luck in the homerun department. Still, I like his approach and stuff (and defense) enough that I would bid fairly aggressively on him.

22. Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, HOU (3.60 ERA, 3.53 FIP, +0.07 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Wandy rate stats are pretty strong and steady. He’s an excellent bet to go for a 3.50-3.70 ERA, a mid 1.20’s WHIP and healthy amount of K (think 180+). I hate his nickname, but I love his steady fantasy product.

23. Max Scherzer, RHP, DET (3.50 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.27 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There’s some strikeout upside in his K/9. Combine that with a probable innings increase and you have a pitcher with 200+ strikeout upside. I wouldn’t project him for much better than a 3.50 ERA or high 1.20’s WHIP just yet as he learns how to sequence his pitches better, but Scherzer is a solid play this year.

24. Roy Oswalt, RHP, PHI (2.76 ERA, 3.32 FIP, -0.56 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
I expect him to veer more into the mid-3.00’s with his ERA this year with a WHIP closer to 1.20 than 1.00 and 175 K instead of 190. But he’s still a fine pitcher to own on a fantasy team, and the Phillies should provide him with a few more Wins than he’s been accustomed to in the last couple of years.

25. Chad Billingsley, RHP, LAD (3.57 ERA, 3.04 FIP, +0.53 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Lost a bit behind the Kershaw breakout was a nice improvement by Chad Billingsley. His BB/9 moved closer to 3 than 4 for the first time in his career, and his FIP dipped noticeably because of it. There’s some noise in a lot of his peripheral numbers, but the short of it is that he could probably produce a similar ERA this year compared to last year’s even while seeing an increase in his FIP to the mid-3’s. In other words, bid on repeat numbers as last year from Bills. He’s even got a bit of upside in strikeouts.

26. Shaun Marcum, RHP, MIL (3.64 ERA, 3.77 FIP, -0.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The shift to the NL should help him navigate the downgrade in defense behind him. He’s an underrated fantasy asset at this point with high-3’s ERA potential to go along with a good WHIP (low 1.20’s), 165+ K, and a healthy amount of Wins.

27. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SF (3.00 ERA, 3.68 FIP, -0.68 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He displayed great control as a rookie (2.11 BB/9), he can strike hitters out at an above average clip (6.97 K/9 last year), and he has an excellent defense helping him out. I think you can probably expect an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range, a WHIP in the high 1.10’s or low 1.20’s, and 150+ K. He’s for real, and I like him quite a bit in 2011.

28. Colby Lewis, RHP, TEX (3.72 ERA, 3.62 FIP, +0.10 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’m a fan. He’s a better pitcher than C.J. Wilson, at least in terms of fantasy potential, as he should provide more K’s and a better WHIP while posting a similar ERA. I expect some regression as his BABIP normalizes a bit, but the excellent defense in Texas will mitigate that a bit. A similar ERA with a bit of a higher WHIP (think something in the mid-to-high 1.20’s) and 180+ strikeouts sounds like a really solid investment to me.

29. Clay Buchholz, RHP, BOS (2.33 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -1.34 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
A rise in ERA due to HR/9 and BABIP regressions is a given. Still, he’s a solid bet to outperform his FIP due to the good defense in Boston, and he’s got a good enough groundball ratio to keep his HR/9 better than average. A mid-to-high 3’s ERA along with a healthy 150+ K’s is probably in order. Just be wary of those that expect even better, and allow them to overbid on him if they want.

30. Brett Anderson, LHP, OAK (2.80 ERA, 3.24 FIP, -0.44 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Anderson is still much the same in terms of how I think about him now versus last year at this time – which is to say quite positive – only now he comes with the caveat of being an injury risk. I’ve seen him fall in a number of drafts, though, so I believe there’s a great opportunity for a value buy on him in 2011. He still has very good groundball ratios and control (the 1.76 BB/9 last year was an eye-popper), and while his strikeouts dipped in 2010 in his limited time on the mound, I expect that to loft back up a bit as his stuff was never discernibly hampered by his injuries. He has a great defense behind him, and Oakland’s coliseum plays a lot bigger for southpaws than it does for righties (meaning the park is close to a + + factor for lefty pitchers). In other words, Anderson has a lot going for him, and I would have him at the top of my sleeper list this season. I could easily see Anderson out-earning a guy like Brandon Morrow, for example, despite Morrow going a couple of rounds earlier in ADP thus far into the pre-season.

Solid Gents and Upside Plays »»

Double Dipping Two-Start Pitchers, Week 9

May 31, 2010 By Rick Leave a Comment

This late in the season, it is rare to see bona fide stars sucking, but that’s what you get from Nate McLouth, Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins or Jake Peavy. All of these guys were drafted with expectations of big fantasy numbers, but all have floundered this season. These are the types of guys who are too good to suck for an entire season, so stick with them or trade for them and expect things to get a lot better very quickly. They all have way too much talent to continue down their current paths.

Now, the projected 2-start pitchers for this week. For those of you in leagues who require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week, these are guys you should strongly consider:

American League
BAL	Brian Matusz
BOS	John Lackey
CWS	Mark Buehrle
CLE	Mitch Talbot, Jake Westbrook
DET	Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman
KC	Luke Hochevar, Brian Bannister
LAA	Ervin Santana, Joel Pineiro
MIN	Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn
NYY	Andy Pettitte, Javier Vazquez
OAK	Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez
SEA	Doug Fister, Jason Vargas
TB	Matt Garza
TEX	Rich Harden
TOR	Brandon Morrow

National League
ARI	Rodrigo Lopez
ATL	Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson
CHC	Randy Wells
CIN	Bronson Arroyo
COL	Ubaldo Jimenez
FLA	Nate Robertson, Ricky Nolasco
HOU	Roy Oswalt, Brett Myers
LAD	Chad Billingsley, John Ely
MIL	Chris Narveson, David Bush
NYM	Hisanori Takahashi
PHI	Joe Blanton
PIT	Ross Ohlendorf
SD	Kevin Correia
SF	Tim Lincecum
STL	Jaime Garcia
WAS	Luis Atilano, Craig Stammen

Rick’s Picks
Five best bets for double-start pitchers this week

1. Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in baseball not named Roy Halladay. He gets the Rockies at home and the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Gotta get me a double scoop of this guy this week and hope he’s not hopped up on dope during the season.

2. Chad Billingsley gets two home games (vs ARZ, vs ATL) and has won four in a row, striking out at least five in each of those contests. Jump in and hang on for the week.

3. Justin Verlander will get two weak opponents (vs CLE, at KC) just as he’s turning around his slow start. Verlander will be big this week, so be a part of the action.

4. Roy Oswalt is trying to build his resume. By pitching his best for the next month, he is more likely to find a few suitors who are willing to meet Houston’s high price for his talents. Two home games against Washington and the Chicago Cubs will be great opportunities for you to enjoy those resume building stats.

5. Hisanori Takahashi isn’t likely to continue this torrid pace, but ride him while he’s hot. A road game in San Diego and a home game versus Florida will provide ample opportunities to keep it up.

Tiers of Starting Pitching 2010

February 23, 2010 By Bodhizefa 4 Comments

[Editor’s Note: I’m very pleased to publish this guest post from Scott Rudicil, a.k.a. Bodhizefa from various message boards in the fantasy baseball community. One of Scott’s claims to fame is his annual Tiers of Starting Pitching dissertation. This is great stuff, which I can attest to first hand since it helped me acquire Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on the cheap last year. So enjoy his 2010 version, and I hope you didn’t have any other work to do today!]

Gentlemen (and ladies, if you’re out there… yes, that includes you, Doug),

It’s a pleasure to bring you my Tiers of Starting Pitching for 2010. What I find interesting after doing this for so long is that every year I realize just how much I don’t know about the vast world of pitchers. There are plenty of analysts out there who have a much more comprehensive database, better knowledge of statistics, scout contacts in the business, and better food than microwavable Hot Pockets to fuel their mission.

But by God, those jackasses charge a lot of money, so I like to help out where I can for the majority of the crowd who frequent message boards like RotoJunkie. If I happen to unearth a gem here or there through my work, awesome. And if I happen to be totally wrong about the guy, I’m sure it was Todd Zola’s fault (way to go, Todd).

In the years since I began this pet project, we’ve seen the advent of the amazing FanGraphs. If you aren’t a regular frequenter of their site, I encourage you to dig your heels in and get a learnin’. They’re providing some cutting edge statistics for everyone for the fantastic price of free.

And as per usual, many thanks to Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, ESPN, Mastersball, RotoJunkie, Gatorade, the cookies my sister made me the other day, and my friend Rio’s mom for all the help they’ve given me in the past few weeks in writing this thing.

I’d also like to thank Dusty Baker for fueling the fire in my belly to start this thing way back in the day due to his handling of certain pitchers that shall remained unnamed. Dusty Baker, you can die and go to hell. (No, I don’t hold grudges.)

Lastly, I’ve included the Average Draft Position (mixed League) in parentheses for each player and occasionally commented on them. I used this instead of FIP this year because it seems more relevant to what we’re all trying to find—value. So, without further adieu…

Tier 1—Timmah’s Tier

1. Tim Lincecum, SF (ADP: 12)—He is in a class all his own. Period. The End.

Tier 2—The Superstars

2. Roy Halladay, PHI (24)—One of the best pitchers in baseball moves to the NL (iNferior League), and he can’t even get top billing? Any conspiracy theorists out there wondering if MLB mandated that Toronto send him to the NL just so Lincecum wouldn’t win his 3rd Cy in a row and subsequently bust the arbitration system all straight to hell? Yeah, me neither.

3. Zack Greinke, KC (26)—He was amazing last year, but let’s take a moment to be realistic. He plays for the Royals, who apparently think Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist are an excellent middle infield. When did Bill Bavasi become chief advisor to Dayton Moore? Considering how interested Greinke is in sabermetric statistics, I’m surprised he hasn’t pulled a Billy Cole from “The Last Boy Scout”, drawing a Colt 1911 from under his cup and shooting Betancourt through his glove, exclaiming, “Now you’ve got a real excuse, asshole!”

4. Dan Haren, ARI (42)—I wrote last year that Haren may actually be a better pitcher than his counterpart in the rotation, Brandon Webb, despite Webb always getting more press. Well, that’s not a problem any more. My only beef with Haren is that he’s simply not as good in Head-to-Head leagues since he generally sees a decline in productivity in the second half.

5. C.C. Sabathia, NYY (28)—The best part about new Yankee Stadium’s homer happiness is that it doesn’t affect Sabathia nearly as much since he’s a southpaw. Without even knowing it, the Yankees lucked into probably the best starter for their ballpark in the entirety of baseball (okay, luck and spending $160 million may not be the best bedfellows, but still, it is an entertaining thought). Sabathia’s pretty amazing—three years of 255+ innings (including playoffs), and he’s still going. Side Note: Isn’t it interesting that in almost any other sport, having a figure like Sabathia’s would instantly preclude a bevy of articles questioning his stamina and work ethic, yet in baseball, being a big fatty is often seen as a positive? I love baseball.

6. Felix Hernandez, SEA (31)—Here’s the real issue with what was Felix’s supposed coming out party. I think a decent part of his awesomeness in ’09 can actually be attributed to the super duper defense in Seattle. And I think another part of the “breakout” had to do with Felix getting lucky against left-handers with homeruns. Do I think Felix actually learned how to pitch instead of just throwing really hard? Yes, I do. So it’s the combination of the defense plus Felix’s awareness of how to pitch with that type of defense behind him that makes me recommend him highly this year. But I have my doubts as to whether he’s a full-blown, legitimate every-year-with-a-shot-of-an-under-3.00 ERA type of pitcher yet. Thus, he’s the lowest ranked of the 2nd Tier. The good news? He’ll be 24 this season, and every single year I’ve watched him he’s learned something new and has improved his game. Is the learning curve done? I’m betting no.

Tier 3—The Studs

7. Cliff Lee, SEA (54)—Lee moves to a team that arguably has the best defense in baseball and is in a park that hinders right-handed power almost to an extreme. Any regression that Lee sees in HR/FB should be easily balanced out by an outperformance of FIP due to defense and the park’s natural suppression of RH power. Also, I think he’s a bit more dependable peripherally than the next few guys (not by much, but he’s shown the most stability of this tier in my opinion).

8. Johan Santana, NYM (45)—His peripherals have gone down steadily over the years, and as much as I love him from a personal standpoint, Santana has a low probability of ever becoming vintage Santana again. So what does that leave us with? A very good pitcher who should decline slowly but steadily each year for a while. I’ll take that. Gladly, in fact. But don’t be the guy who’s trying to relive 2005 over and over and over, okay?

9. Justin Verlander, DET (47)—Was he one of the best pitchers in baseball last year? Absolutely. Am I worried that his velocity spike is unsustainable? Absolutely. And to me, that’s the biggest reason for his awesomeness. His contact % went from a career rate of over 80% to a much more star-like 76%. It will also be interesting to see how two new youngsters play defense behind him (A.Jackson and S.Sizemore) as both of them are replacing above average defenders at their respective positions. Jackson in particular should be of interest to Verlander fans given his high flyball %. He’s a possible Tier 2 guy for sure, but I think there’s enough risk involved (i.e. probable regression) to where we have to knock him down slightly. A good argument could even be made that he’s better than Felix Hernandez. However, the defense and the ballpark behind him are not better than Seattle’s, and that has significance in this whole projection thing.

10. Jon Lester, BOS (59)—Look, I was dead wrong about him. How in the hell could anyone have guessed that Lester was going to see yet another spike in velocity? He was quite awesome last year, and the defense behind him is stellar in 2010. So why isn’t he a Tier 2? Much like Verlander, I’m worried that velo spike isn’t sustainable (Ervin Santana 2008 vs. 2009 comes to mind as an example). And with a bit of a drop in velo comes a drop in strikeouts and overall effectiveness. Your mileage may vary, but I can’t see ranking him above anyone on this list, especially given his divisional competition.

11. Chris Carpenter, STL (73… no, this is not his age)—He’s older than when he was a fantasy horse in the mid-2000’s, and I think it’s probable that he won’t pitch 230+ innings. Still, he’s one of the smartest pitchers in the game right now, and he’s still got the toolset to use those smarts to their fullest.

12. Josh Johnson, FLA (66)—Another guy with a velo spike, but to me, his seems a tad more sustainable. Still regress his numbers a bit, but this is the talent level he flashed in 2006 before he got hurt. I find it baffling, though, that Florida pushed him to 209 innings after a season in which he only notched barely above 100, though. Does this organization never learn from their mistakes on handling young arms? Thusly, he comes with risk, but he may be the most affordable player in this tier given the lack of press he generally receives.

13. Josh Beckett, BOS (78)—Have I mentioned yet how awesome the Red Sox defense is this year? Beltre at 3rd + Cameron in Center + Ellsbury in Left = very good for Josh Beckett.

14. Cole Hamels, PHI (102)—I’m sure most of you have read where his peripherals were almost exactly the same last year as in years prior. They would be right. Hamels’ FIP’s the last 3 years? 3.83, 3.72, and 3.72. His BABIP will regress this year, and he should be fine again. Still, after being pretty lucky in ’07 and ’08, I’d look for more of a mid-3’s ERA and 1.20ish WHIP than the lower luck-driven numbers in years past.

15. Adam Wainwright, STL (56)—Wainwright is more luck than skill, and I am aghast that he gets as much press as he does. He’s not an ace, but he constantly gets billed as one. His strikeout rate last year increased dramatically despite his contact % barely going up a percentage point. Expect that to regress to the low to mid 7’s. I anticipate an ERA closer to the mid to upper 3’s than anything in the 2’s this year.

16. Ricky Nolasco, FLA (106)—What a weird weird year for him last year. He had an almost disastrously flukey ERA while almost all his peripherals were even better than his breakout season. I’m willing to bet he’ll be on almost all my teams this year as you can net him later in the draft while stocking up on one extra solid hitter versus the rest of the guys in this tier.

17. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (96)—This guy is a bulldog. I love his charisma and attitude and demeanor on the mound. Even when he doesn’t have his control, he’s still fighting through it, trying to make adjustments. He’ll definitely give up more homers this year, but he’s got one of the best young lefty arms in baseball.

Tier 4—The Really Good Pitchers
Guys that are either injury risks or are technically #2 starters, but their teams probably call them an “ace”

18. Matt Cain, SF (92)—One of those guys who always manages to outproduce his peripherals in some way, shape or form. There are names for people like that in sabermetrics. They’re called assholes. So here’s to you, Matt Cain. You’re one heck of an asshole.

19. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU (116)—He’s good, though I was really surprised when I was going over his bio and realized he was 31 years old. Also… “Magic Wandy”? That’s the best his fans could come up with? Seriously? Let’s just move on.

20. John Lackey, BOS (118)—I love that Red Sox fans are fine with owning Lackey because “he’s fine as a #3 starter.” Red Sox fans, you can go to hell. And say hey to Dusty for me while you’re down there, too.

21. Yovani Gallardo, MIL (87)—2009’s version of Gallardo is why we play the game on the field and not on a spreadsheet (or on MLB ’09 The Show, where Gallardo pitched three no-hitters for me). That he had a pretty sizeable control problem in ’09 went beyond head-scratching to a bit of a shocker for me. And then I went back and realized it was his first full season in the big leagues despite my notion that he had been around for a few years now. In any case, his stuff looked quite good last year, but he had a lot of rust to iron out. I think the kid gloves come off for Gallardo this year, and he moves towards becoming one of the better pitchers nobody knows about.

22. Jake Peavy, CWS (84)—April 5th: The day Jake Peavy realizes he’s not in Petco anymore. April 30th: The day Kenny Williams realizes how much of an impact Petco had on Peavy’s success. Look, I like Jake Peavy. I do. And I don’t mind Kenny Williams so much anymore. And Williams didn’t give up much in the way of talent to acquire Peavy. But what he did give up was a lot of money to a guy with a growing injury list and peripherals that were masked by the Michael Myers of all baseball masks—Petco Park. Peavy’s an interesting experiment, but on a team that thinks Carlos Quentin is a better option in right field than Andruw Jones, I’m probably not risking my fantasy season on Peavy being too awfully good. He is the very definition of high risk/high reward in 2010, so if you’ve already fallen behind by the time Peavy’s name pops up on your draft radar, well, may luck be your lady tonight.

23. Brandon Webb, ARI (123)—A bonafide ace when healthy, Webb is a pleasure to watch when on. His sinker baffles people to ground out weakly time and time again, and his curveball and change-up are both above average offerings at this point. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether he’ll be healthy in 2010, but he’s probably worth taking a risk on. I rank him right behind Peavy because Peavy’s already shown us he’s back (in some capacity). We’ll still waiting for Webb to do that.

24. Tommy Hanson, ATL (80)—Sexy. And probably worth the risk, too. Usually I worry about innings being a problem, but he threw close to 190 IP last year in total. Yeah, just go ahead and splurge.

25. James Shields, TB (128)—Generally the best of the guys who have good control but not as much stuff, Shields had a bevy of bad luck last year in the BABIP department. As per usual, and with such a solid defense behind him, we should expect a regression towards the good. His peripherals remind me a little of Cole Hamels as he was lucky a couple years in a row, maybe got a little overrated going into 2009, and then was unlucky in a big way. I’m buying.

26. Chad Billingsley, LAD (121)—So he had a setback. So did Sylvester Stallone, and what helped him through it? Steroids! In all actuality, Bills’ peripherals stood fairly strong in 2010, but he didn’t continue his improvement in the control department. That’s going to be the difference between him being a good pitcher and a great one. I’m here to tell you I have no clue if he can do it. How’s that for “expert advice”?! He’s one of those guys that, if you need a burst of upside, you should roll the dice on him. Otherwise, there are other, fatter, and seemingly better pitchers that I would recommend.

27. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (103)—Do I really have a Rockies pitcher this high? And did I specifically save his ranking for when I was drinking? Yes and yes, thank you. Jimenez is a fascinating pitcher, and not just because he’s the hardest throwing starter in baseball either. He was a bit of a walking contradiction last year. His HR/FB ratios and BABIP were low despite being in Coors. The BABIP can partially be explained by the good infield defense (that almost makes up for the fact that the outfield defense on the Rockies is pretty crappy right now). But can Jimenez keep that HR rate down? And can he keep up his improvement in control? I still get the feeling that he’s not really sure where his pitches are going, and I think it’s 50/50 as to whether he regresses as opposed to improves there. Control takes an awful lot of work, and you just never know which pitchers are going to put in that time. For now, I like those strikeouts but would probably expect regression in all other categories for Jimenez.

Tier 5—Solid Gents
Guys who maybe shouldn’t be at the top of your fantasy rotation, but are still good!

28. Jair Jurrjens, ATL (136)—This is precisely the type of player you allow your dumbo casual leaguemates to draft and think they got a young “ace.” While Jurrjens is pretty good, his peripherals last year supported an ERA more akin to mid or high 3’s than the ridiculous 2.60 he put up. Not to mention the fact that the Braves’ defense was in the lower half of baseball last year and doesn’t project to be much better this season. Basically, I look at Jurrjens as a guy who’s probably mostly topped out and doesn’t have much upward projection at this point. Add that to the regression of his ERA toward a more FIP-happy 3.60ish range, and Jurrjens is a quality pitcher. But he’s no ace. UPDATE: His shoulder woes early on in camp allow me to drop him a couple spots without feeling too bad about myself.

29. Brett Anderson, OAK (161)—How much do I love Brett Anderson? Let me count the ways: 1) lefty, 2) sexy control, 3) I LOVE FATTIES! Seriously, though, there are enough questions about Anderson’s, um, interesting mid-season velo spike to warrant a bit of caution. He went from a cupcake on the mound to a dominatrix. Hell, he went from tossing 14 K’s and 8 BB’s in 23 innings in April to 3 walks in September against 26 strikeouts in the same number of innings. THREE WALKS! That’s almost as awesome as how chubby this kid’s chin is. Almost. No wonder all the scouts liked Cahill better—you can see his jawline, for christ’s sake.

30. Javier Vazquez, NYY (61)—I cannot stress enough what a negative difference it is for a good pitcher to go from the NL to the AL. Couple that with Vazquez moving from a pitcher’s park to a homerun haven, and I again see Vaz as having a tough go in the AL East. Vazquez’ lowest ERA in the AL in his career is 3.74. His average ERA in the AL in his four years spent there is 4.52. His average K/9 is 8.14. I’m not saying he’s going to be absolutely awful, but I don’t see this going well for his owners if they’re expecting anything close to ’09 levels of performance. Unless I get him for a major discount, Vazquez is on my no-fly zone for this season. (On ADP: There are an awful lot of people who are going to get badly burned this year.)

31. Jered Weaver, LAA (134)—Extreme flyball pitcher who now has a defense behind him of Abreu, an aging Hunter, and Juan Rivera with Matsui saying he wants to play the field some? I hope Weaver has a medicinal marijuana prescription to deal with the job-related stress there. Sheesh.

32. Ryan Dempster, CHC (165)—I had no idea he’d ever turn out to be good. It’s funny what time and hard work can do for a guy. I guess even the Cubs can’t screw everything up.

33. Roy Oswalt, HOU (158)—He’s no longer a fantasy ace, but Oswalt ain’t chopped liver either (and come to think of it, chopped liver really isn’t bad if it’s fried, so I’m not really sure what I’m trying to say other than Roy Oswalt is a fine pitcher. Why does chopped liver get such a bad rap anyway?) In fact, Oswalt is the perfect target because he’s unsexy these days as his luster has worn off and all he does is go out there and pitch well.

34. Matt Garza, TB (124)—Maybe there’s a reason scouts said he was more of a #2 guy than a #1. Despite his stellar minor league stat record, Garza looks like he’s going to top out as a #2 or #3 starter. He’s still got some upside, especially control-wise, so let’s give him another season before we go labeling him this or that (look, I’m as guilty as the next guy, okay?!) His peripherals don’t look steady enough for me to prescribe a massive breakout, though.

35. Randy Wolf, MIL (176)—I’ve loved Wolf since his days with the Phillies, and I still love Randy Wolf (I think it’s the red facial hair). The Brewers’ stadium isn’t that egregiously different from the Dodgers, and their outfield defense has a chance to be a bit better than the Dodgers’ of ’09 depending entirely on Carlos Gomez. Still, even though Wolf is a flyball pitcher, the Brewers’ infield ‘D’ is somewhat questionable compared to L.A. With a regression to his ERA, I’d anticipate a number closer to 4.00 and a WHIP closer to 1.30. But the strikeouts should still be there. And the Wins. Gosh, Wolf is just a quality pitcher to own. Red facial hair men of the world unite!

36. Scott Baker, MIN (155)—I’d be interested if anyone in the Twins’ organization would admit to having a carbonite mold and assembly line where they make their pitchers to all be the same flyball, control, moderate strikeout type of pitcher that we’ve all come to know and love. No wonder Liriano keeps getting hurt. They tried to fit him in the carbonite mold, and it broke his arm! As with all of these types of pitchers, I like Baker. His ilk really helps in WHIP, moderately helps in K’s, and rarely hurts in ERA. It’s the perfect complement to a pitcher who might have a control problem.

37. John Danks, CWS (164)—A move to almost any other stadium would do the flyball pitcher wonders, but even in Chicago’s south side, he’s still a quality fantasy pitcher to own. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Danks yet, too.

38. Neftali Feliz, TEX (169)—I loved him last year, and I love him this year. He is dynamite. That said, I think there’s a chance we’re going a little too cuckoo for the Feliz Puffs right now. Fangraphs currently shows a fan projected ERA of 3.45, 129 K’s in 119 IP, and a 3.19 K/BB. I’m as optimistic as the next guy… well, actually, it appears that I’m not. I think those numbers are something like Feliz’ 99.9th percentile (to put this in BP speak) and are pretty far-fetched. I think he’s going to be a very special pitcher someday soon, but he’s got some very probable regression in K/9, BB/9, HR/FB, and BABIP coming his way in 2010. I’d be very happy with his numbers if he threw 150 IP with 135 K’s, a WHIP in the high 1.20’s and an ERA in the high 3’s. I think that would be something to get very excited about, actually.

39. Ted Lilly, CHC (154)—A perennial fave of mine, it pains me to look at the outfield defense the Cubbies have behind him. He’s also a bit of an injury risk coming after coming off of arthroscopic labrum surgery (he’s not expected to be ready by the beginning of the season). Yes, he was lucky last year. But the improved control over the last few years is real and sustainable to a degree. Don’t pass him up if he’s cheap enough. I don’t think he’ll disappoint. (UPDATE: Injuries will cost him some spots.)

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