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Preliminary 2016 Tight End Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 8, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Rob Gronkowski

Some small red flags and up-and-coming talent at the position might be closing the gap between Rob Gronkowski and the field, but he still stands alone in Tier 1 at TE for now.

Lets close out the week with preliminary redraft tight end tiers for the 2016 fantasy football season. This concludes our collection of offensive skill position tiers after posting quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers the prior three days.

Note again the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

We will publish detailed player projections, rankings and commentary plus updates over the next two plus months leading up to the start of the NFL regular season. Feel free to post your comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2

Coby Fleener
Greg Olsen
Jordan Reed
Travis Kelce

Tier 3

Delanie Walker
Gary Barnidge
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Tyler Eifert
Zach Ertz

Tier 4

Antonio Gates
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Benjamin Watson
Dwayne Allen
Eric Ebron
Jason Witten
Jordan Cameron
Ladarius Green
Martellus Bennett

Tier 5

Charles Clay
Clive Walford
Jacob Tamme
Kyle Rudolph
Richard Rodgers
Vance McDonald
Will Tye
Zach Miller

Tier 6

Cameron Brate
Darren Fells
Jace Amaro
Jeff Heuerman
Lance Kendricks
Ryan Griffin
Tyler Kroft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pre-NFL Draft 2015 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings—Gronk On Top, And Its Not Close

April 30, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

There is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes at tight end and that is New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski.

There is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes at tight end and that is New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski.

The dynamic at tight end for fantasy football players has changed dramatically over the course of just one season.

While Jimmy Graham was the consensus top fantasy tight end last season, there were another three or four options that fantasy owners were salivating over before hitting another tier of players with solid upside potential.

However, in 2015, there is one player standing atop the mountain for fantasy purposes and that is Rob Gronkowski.

You need to make a bit of a trek down the hill before you reach the next tier of four players, none of whom has a chance to supplant Gronk as the number one option provided he remains injury free in 2015.

After that, you might as well ignore the position since there is little to differentiate the third tier of fantasy tight ends. This is a group riddled with some combination of age, injury or other issues that will cause varying levels of concern for fantasy owners.

Here are our initial 2015 fantasy football tight end rankings for redraft leagues, before the NFL Draft.

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

Even if Jimmy Graham remained on the New Orleans Saints, it still would have been Gronk as the top ranked fantasy tight end. Now that Graham is a Seattle Seahawk, the gap between the two widened considerably. Sure, there is injury risk here but the upside is too much to ignore.

2. Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

While Graham’s talent is undeniable, his inability to produce when nicked up coupled with his move to one of the league’s top rushing teams sees his fantasy value tumble in 2015. While he still should find the end zone plenty, it seems unlikely that he will top 1,000 receiving yards.

3. Travis Kelce, Chiefs

Despite their struggles at wide receiver, Kelce was an underutilized option in the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack in 2014, catching 67 of his 87 targets (a completion percentage of 77%) for 862 yards and five touchdowns. Even with Jeremy Maclin now in Kansas City, Kelce is still a sure fire bet for over 100 targets this season.

4. Greg Olsen, Panthers

Olsen posted career highs across the board in 2014 with 84 receptions for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. While the Panthers will look to fill the hole at wide receiver opposite Kelvin Benjamin, we still see Olsen as a solid, low risk option in 2015.

5. Martellus Bennett, Bears

Bennett reached career highs in all major categories last season with 90 receptions for 926 yards and six touchdowns on 128 receptions. Brandon Marshall left town. If Bennett remains healthy, he will be a top five tight end.

6. Julius Thomas, Jaguars

Incredible stat – Thomas hauled in 12 touchdowns on just 62 targets last season. Let’s go out on a limb and predict 90 targets for him this season in his new home in Jacksonville (his career high is 89). How many fantasy points can we give him? Does a line of 65 receptions for 780 yards and five touchdowns seem fair? Don’t reach for Julius.

7. Zach Ertz, Eagles

This is where things get dicey. As in, at this point in my fantasy auction, I’m waiting on the tight end position. Since Ertz has upside and the Philadelphia Eagles have lost their leading receiver in each of the last two seasons, he gets the nod as the top pick amongst the also-rans at tight end.

8. Jordan Cameron, Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins dumped receivers Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, leaving them with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and a quite possibly washed up Greg Jennings. If Cameron can stay healthy (a major if), he should put up solid numbers in his first year in Miami.

9. Antonio Gates, Chargers

After hitting pay dirt nine times in his first eight games last season, Gates went five games without scoring while averaging 38.2 yards per game in those contests. Gates will turn 35 in June and the San Diego Chargers are planning to reduce his snap count. Gates is a low ceiling option in 2015.

10. Dwayne Allen, Colts

Allen produced eight touchdowns in 12 games on just 50 targets last season and the Indianapolis Colts did little to address their size issue at wide receiver. With Allen their top receiving option in the red zone in an offense that rates amongst the league best, he should reach TE1 status albeit almost certainly with continued consistency issues.

11. Jason Witten, Cowboys

Witten is another low ceiling option but with Terrence Williams having failed to make major strides last season, Witten should come close to another 90 targets this season as Tony Romo’s security blanket. It’s worth noting that Witten hasn’t missed a game since his rookie season in 2003.

12. Delanie Walker, Titans

Healthy for 15 games, Walker posted career highs in receptions with 63 and yards with 890 while finding the end zone four times. However, he was a boom or bust fantasy option, tallying 50.1 of his 113.0 fantasy points in just three games. Expect another solid season from Walker given the dire state of the Tennessee Titans’s depth chart at wide receiver.

13. Jordan Reed, Redskins

Dude is talented but he can’t stay healthy and we have no idea what to expect out of the Washington Redskins offense in 2015. Reed looks better in the wrapper than he does out of it.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Tight End Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 22, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) reacts after a big gain in the New Orleans Saints 17-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta Georgia. November 21, 2013; Photographer: Todd Kirkland/Icon Sportswire

New Orleans Saints TE Jimmy Graham is The Man, no doubt about it. Fantasy football players are showing Graham lots of love, drafting him in the 1st round. If you don’t snag Graham, here is how every other fantasy worthy TE shakes out. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Once upon a time, there was a tight end named Antonio Gates, who was head and shoulders above the next most valuable fantasy football tight end.

That scenario may repeat itself if New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham can continue his strong performance and couple that with an ability to stay healthy. Last season, Graham scored 54.5 more fantasy points than the 2nd ranked tight end, San Francisco 49ers Vernon Davis.

While you are going to read that the New England Patriots Rob Gronkowski offers more upside than Graham does, we would like to note that Graham has outscored Gronk 566.7 to 469.1 over the last three seasons and 369.7 to 228.2 over the past two.

Staying healthy counts, and is the reason for the large difference in fantasy value between the two über-talented tight ends. In fact, those health concerns are reason enough for us to vault Denver Broncos Julius Thomas ahead of Gronkowski, who is coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 14 last season.

Tier 1
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
1
Jimmy Graham
NO 6 1.08
2
Julius Thomas
DEN 4 3.06
3
Rob Gronkowski
NE 10 3.05
4
Jordan Cameron
CLE 4 5.12

There are four tight ends this year who have the potential to be major difference makers and it wouldn’t be an earth rattling surprise. That being said, Graham is the BMOC out of this group and to snag him, it will cost you a mid to late 1st round draft pick in a league of halfway progressive thinking owners. We’re fine with that price. The issue then becomes where the value is in drafting the others since we agree with the premise that you can get a big leg up on the competition by having a Tier 1 tight end.

Gronk is the boom or bust pick but with a high 3rd round ADP, the cost seems to be a tad rich. Thomas is the better value with a mid 3rd round ADP and huge touchdown upside in the Broncos offense since Eric Decker left town. With no proven quarterback in an offense that may struggle to move the ball, Cameron brings up the rear of the Tier 1 tight ends, but he may bring the most value with a late 5th round ADP. He is the Cleveland Browns’ primary receiver for as long as Josh Gordon is suspended.

Mike’s Take: Maybe we should have Graham in a tier by himself, but I don’t like doing that because raising a single player on a pedestal above all others at his position will invariably lead to disappointment. Always bet the field. I discussed Gronk in last week’s projection update notes. I do feel Thomas is a safer pick than a lot of experts are giving him credit for. Short of injury, could he possibly not hit double digit touchdowns? Only 13 receivers – WR and TE – hit that mark last year. I’m souring on Cameron, slightly.

Tier 2
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
5
Greg Olsen
CAR 12 8.01
6
Jason Witten
DAL 11 6.10
7
Vernon Davis
SF 8 5.09

Tier 2 features a trio of players not easily lumped together. While Olsen has never had a true breakout season, both Witten and Davis have, but expectations are lowered this season as Witten approaches the end of his career and Davis fights for touches in an improved 49ers receiving corps. At their current ADP and given the upside of players in the lower tiers, none of these players will be on my fantasy teams in 2014.

Mike’s Take: That is Dave talking. I will draft Olsen, if the price is right. I’ve never targeted Davis for my fantasy football teams, and I don’t see why I would start now. Witten I do have on one dynasty team and I’ll ride into the sun with him for old times sake. That said, if Witten comes at a reasonable price, I wouldn’t avoid him. We keep talking up how much passing the Cowboys are going to do this year in lieu of the apparently dismal defense they are going to trot out, and the receivers aren’t that deep Tony Romo can forget his good buddy. Just expect a low YAC from Witten. He’s better suited for PPR leagues.

Tier 3
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
8
Dennis Pitta
BAL 11 9.01
9
Jordan Reed
WAS 10 7.06
10
Zach Ertz
PHI 7 9.05

This is where the decisions get tougher. While Reed has tremendous upside, his history of concussions and the plethora of receiving options in Washington make his current ADP of 7.05 somewhat questionable. Pitta rates a solid value as concerns about Owen Daniels eating into his target count seem overblown. Ertz has breakout potential in a solid offense. This just might be the sweet spot at tight end in 2014 since grabbing an option here allows you to stockpile running backs and wide receivers in the earlier rounds of your draft.

Mike’s Take: I dig what Dave is putting down here. This is the sweet spot if you passed on a Tier 1 tight end. Ertz is ending up on a lot of my teams. While you can expect one, maybe two, of the tight ends ranked below here to get drafted ahead of Ertz, don’t get too cocky and miss out on him, because we aren’t the only ones hip to his potential.

Tier 4
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
11
Ladarius Green
SD 10 11.02
12
Dwayne Allen
IND 10 –
13
Tyler Eifert
CIN 4 –
14
Kyle Rudolph
MIN 10 8.02
15
Travis Kelce
KC 6 13.07
16
Martellus Bennett
CHI 9 11.08

At this point in your draft, if you haven’t acquired a tight end, there just isn’t much point in reaching for one of these players. It’s a mixed bag of tantalizing skill, unproven players, players with injury risk, and Martellus Bennett.

Of particular interest here is Rudolph’s ADP in the late 8th round. Just because OC Norv Turner has helped talented tight ends reach their potential doesn’t mean he can turn a middling talent like Rudolph into an upper echelon threat. It’s also worth noting that while Antonio Gates (top of the next tier) may open the season as a decent fantasy starter, it won’t be a shock if he loses more and more touches to Green as the season progresses.

Mike’s Take: Green and Gates are an interesting case study this year. Those drafting Green on his potential may be in tough early in the season. Green may win some titles late in the season, but I think it is certainly plausible fantasy players are a year too early on a guy like Green while Gates is still in the picture. Dave and I are singing the same tune on Rudolph, but he’s looked good in preseason, so I’ll give him that. Another guy who looks really good is Travis Kelce. For a good team the receiving options on the Kansas City Chiefs are terrible. Good upside backup selection. Kelce’s value might spike as early as Week 1 with Dwayne Bowe out, suspended.

Tier 5
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
17
Antonio Gates
SD 10 13.07
18
Delanie Walker
TEN 9 –
19
Heath Miller
PIT 12 13.12
20
Charles Clay
MIA 5 13.04
21
Marcedes Lewis
JAC 11 –
22
Jared Cook
STL 4 –
23
Coby Fleener
IND 10 –
24
Mychal Rivera
OAK 5 –
25
Eric Ebron ®
DET 9 12.10
26
Levine Toilolo
ATL 9 –

The upside for this group of pass catchers is as a back end TE1 but it is also a group loaded with risk. If you wait too long on tight end need to grab your starter out of this tier, Clay seems the safest bet after a solid season in 2013.

Mike’s Take: I prefer Delanie Walker and Heath Miller to Clay. Neither is too exciting and may not propel you to win you many games, but they should be fairly reliable and not lose them for you, either. Clay is ranked down here because he’s dealt with a knee injury all of training camp and preseason. As of a few days ago, he was still only 50-50 for the Dolphins next preseason game. Let someone else take the risk. You are close to punting the position if you are pulling your starter from the rest of this group.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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