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[Help Desk] Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy Tech Support Q&A, Part II

March 13, 2015 By Draft Buddy 2 Comments

Here are two more recent tech support emails (one email, one tweet) received for fantasy baseball version of Draft Buddy. Part I questions and answers was posted yesterday.

More Players on Overall Cheatsheet

Question:

I’m usually asking questions about the fantasy football Draft Buddy, but this year I’m trying out baseball, too. Is there any way to have a longer list of players? For example, in one of my leagues (mixed 5×5 with 24 roster spots), the cheatsheets never got to Joc Pederson, and he got drafted by a competitor. So is there a way to see more players on the cheatsheet, or physically add on a player who’s not on the lists? Thanks for the time.

Answer:

The overall list does stop at a point, and baseball drafts do tend to be longer/deeper than football on average, but similar to the football Draft Buddy, the positional cheatsheets have more players listed at each position. I see Pederson in my OF rankings on the hitters cheatsheet at #60. I found him quickly by using CTRL-F (Command-F on Mac) which brings up a find box, typing in part of his name and hitting OK.

If you truly can’t find a player you can always type his name next to the relevant pick on the draft report tab. That player’s team might not come up, but the name should still flow through to the roster and update Buddy for the next pick in the draft.

One thing I find with baseball drafts is the players being drafted can vary a lot more than football. Lots of different players to choose from, lots of different opinions on his current year fantasy contributions. The young guys are interesting too. Players may start in the minors and are expected to come up to the majors later in the season and contribute. The big question is when. Some owners are pretty savvy about drafting these guys, or are just excited about drafting and rostering prospects, depending on the size of the league and available roster spots of course. We don’t really see that in football. Young guys are more or less expected they are going to produce right away or not, unless injury strikes a veteran opening the door for a rookie.

Tiering

Question and Answer:

@gregeol51 Hi Greg. Appears to on mine. Remember, tiering only on hitters and pitchers tabs. Can also change the tier difference on options

— DraftBuddy.com (@DraftBuddy) March 12, 2015

Let me expand on this about the tier difference to say that depending on whether your cheatsheets have dollar values or fantasy points, and how big those values are, will influence how appropriate the tiering difference value is set at on the options tab. For dollar values on a $260 salary cap, a small difference of $5 (the default) is probably good to get nice size tiers. For fantasy points, where the points are in hundreds, then you will need a much large number to show suitable tiers.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy

Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 29, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Top ranked running backs for fantasy football, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Photos: Icon Sportswire

Is Jamaal Charles the top ranked running back in fantasy football? There are some red flags. Maybe LeSean McCoy? Truth be told there are five top workhorse running backs that should be the first five picks in most formats in 2014. Photos: Icon Sportswire

While the NFL has become more of a passing league, fantasy football championships are still heavily influenced by an owner’s ability to secure two solid running backs in his or her starting lineup.

But with teams relying more on their passing attacks than ever before and moving to committee approaches at the running back position, the number of workhorse running backs has been drastically reduced in recent years.

In 2014, there are fewer than 10 workhorse running backs and some of the players that fall within that category have injury concerns which reduce their fantasy appeal. That being said, just about any workhorse running back is worth gambling on given the short supply.

This season features five solid options at the top of the running back rankings, and these players should be the first players taken in all formats. After that, there are several solid options worth gambling on but the supply of players that have confidence inspiring roles and resumés begins to end after about 20 names with another five or six players having solid value given their current ADP.

But there’s a big difference between solid value meaning, “worth gambling on” than solid value meaning they give you solid comfort they will produce for the entire season.

Tier 1
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
1
Jamaal Charles
KC 6 1.03
2
LeSean McCoy
PHI 7 1.02
3
Adrian Peterson
MIN 10 1.04
4
Matt Forte
CHI 9 1.06
5
Eddie Lacy
GB 9 1.05

While you can quibble with the order of these five running backs, you can’t argue with the notion that they should be the first five players off the board in every draft. Bar none. At the top, the Chiefs depleted offensive line raises some concern as to whether Charles should remain the top ranked running back ahead of McCoy and Peterson. Put them in the order you like but if you have a top five selection, you must use your pick on one of these players.

Mike’s Take: There are some red flags for Charles which may prompt a move down within the tier. I am anxious to see what Norv Turner has in store for Adrian Peterson. Eddie Lacy was a later addition to Tier 1. I would be ecstatic to get him with a mid-first round pick. Looking at the top two tiers at RB and WR, I would almost definitely prefer to get one of these 5 RB and best available WR, than the other way around, in most formats.

Tier 2
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
6
Marshawn Lynch
SEA 4 1.10
7
DeMarco Murray
DAL 11 2.02
8
Doug Martin
TB 7 2.09
9
Montee Ball
DEN 4 1.12
10
Giovani Bernard
CIN 4 2.06
11
Le’Veon Bell
PIT 12 3.06
12
Arian Foster
HOU 10 2.08
13
Andre Ellington
ARI 4 3.02

The second tier of running backs is deep and populated by talented backs, albeit ones with some question marks, even if those question marks are minor. Will Lynch wear down? Can Murray, Ball and Foster remain healthy? Will Bernard and Ellington get enough touches to attain RB1 status? Can Martin bounce back and is Bell more than just a volume guy? While this group is talented, it’s not talented enough to stop fantasy owners from considering the top six or seven wide receivers, the top three quarterbacks and Jimmy Graham ahead of the players in this tier. Of particular concern are Ellington and Foster with Bernard also struggling in the preseason.

Mike’s Take: I often felt like this tier was getting too big when doing our rankings, but really, pretty similar risk-reward profiles across the board. We’ve had Doug Martin higher than most rankings since the start of fantasy prep season, probably too high before, but now reasonable with recent circumstances in the Bucs backfield. People either believe Arian Foster is going to bounce back, or he won’t, without much in between. I’m avoiding drafting him, letting someone else take the chance.

Tier 3
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
14
Zac Stacy
STL 4 3.05
15
C.J. Spiller
BUF 9 4.01
16
Ryan Mathews
SD 10 4.05
17
Alfred Morris
WAS 10 2.12
18
Shane Vereen
NE 10 4.05
19
Ben Tate
CLE 4 5.08
20
Reggie Bush
DET 9 3.08

The warts really begin to show in the 3rd tier of running backs. At this point in your draft, feel comfortable grabbing Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski at tight end as well as any wide receiver ranked in the Top 15. Mathews, Morris, Vereen, Tate and Bush all have question marks regarding how much they will be used. While Stacy was productive as a rookie, there was a reason he lasted until the 5th round of the NFL Draft, and he was clearly a volume play given his 3.9 yards per carry average. In addition, his performance in the preseason has been disconcerting with reports out of St. Louis that Benny Cunningham could muscle his way into making this more of a timeshare situation. Spiller has the most upside in this group but he is a boom/bust type of pick with the Buffalo Bills coaching staff unwilling to bend their offensive philosophy to get him the ball in space. There is talent in this tier but also some risk. The next tier features safer options, albeit with less upside.

Mike’s Take: Spiller is a tough one to figure out. The Bills should run a lot, benefitting Spiller, but he was a real disappointment last year. The Bills overall offense looks poor, which makes things sketchy for one of your starting running backs. I really like Mathews’ talent. Can he stay healthy and where is his dedication level at? Two big questions. I’m really thinking Shane Vereen could be a S.O.D. (steal of the draft) candidate lately, but given his anticipated role, on the Patriots no less, it is hard to push him up any higher in the rankings.

Tier 4
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
21
Rashad Jennings
NYG 8 3.11
22
Toby Gerhart
JAC 11 4.02
23
Ray Rice
BAL 11 5.01
24
Maurice Jones-Drew
OAK 5 6.07
25
Frank Gore
SF 8 4.08
26
Bishop Sankey ®
TEN 9 5.07

Tier 4 may actually feature some workhorse runners although none of these running backs are strong candidates to finish in the Top 10. Even Rice seems like a long shot even though he’s been there, done that. Jennings could lose some goal line touches to Andre Williams but he looks like a three down back entering the season as does Gerhart. MJD has looked solid and we all know Darren McFadden‘s injury history. Gore isn’t flashy but he should attain RB2 status in 2014. Sankey needs to overtake Shonn Greene, but once that happens, we expect him to be a feature back. Most of this group represents solid value at their current ADP, and they are going off the board at the point where the wide receivers feature greater risk.

Mike’s Take: On the one hand, Jennings looks like a good fit for the Giants offense. On the other hand, its Rashad Jennings, who has bounced around a bit and never really strung together a consistent streak of solid performances. Gerhart maybe never had an opportunity to do it before, but we are skeptical, and even as a high volume carry guy, how is that going to translate in the Jaguars offense? MJD does look good, and is still coming off the board as an RB3 most of the time. He looks like a worthwhile risk. It may be smoke and mirrors by the Titans indicating Sankey isn’t ready to be their workhorse, yet. We’ve seen it before with teams and rookies. That is part of the risk rolling the dice on rookies. If you draft him, then make sure you don’t absolutely need to rely on him – keep expectations in check and hope for the best.

Tier 5
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
27
Chris Johnson
NYJ 11 5.09
28
Lamar Miller
MIA 5 6.12
29
Pierre Thomas
NO 6 7.01
30
Trent Richardson
IND 10 6.03
31
Steven Jackson
ATL 9 7.06
32
Joique Bell
DET 9 5.04

A quick look at this tier makes it clear why Tier 4 is the place to be. Outside of Trent Richardson, this group features little upside. And even T-rich’s upside must be questioned with his continued struggles in the preseason and the Colts shoddy offensive line. Johnson and Jackson are aging backs while Thomas seems destined for pass receiving duties. Both Miller and Bell figures to split the work in the range of 55/45 with their backfield mates (Knowshon Moreno and Reggie Bush), although it’s up for debate as to which players in each pairing will handle the larger role.

Mike’s Take: Outside of Pierre Thomas, if he drops far enough, these guys might as well all be tagged, “do not draft” on my list. Not that I have anything against Bell, but he typically gets drafted somewhat earlier than I would take him. As for the rest, Richardson continues to look sluggish, it is hard to imagine Jackson staying healthy a month much less a season, Johnson continues to be over-drafted, and Miller could easily be surpassed by Moreno at this point. Do I want to take the chance Miller holds him off, to own a piece of the Dolphins running game? More than likely, I’m drafting other positions around the time these guys are coming off the board.

Tier 6
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
33
Mark Ingram
NO 6 9.09
34
Bernard Pierce
BAL 11 8.05
35
Knowshon Moreno
MIA 5 8.08
36
DeAngelo Williams
CAR 12 10.03
37
Danny Woodhead
SD 10 8.11
38
Darren McFadden
OAK 5 10.12

There is a large gap in the ADP ranges between Tiers 5 and 6. Unfortunately, the ADP gap doesn’t lead to the increase in value that you would expect. Ingram seems ready to finally assume a lead role in New Orleans and Moreno could easily open the season as Miami’s starter. Pierce’s preseason concussion has stunted his momentum while Williams and Woodhead offer pretty much no upside. As for McFadden, I’m fine if somebody grabs him and watches him bust out.

Mike’s Take: I pretty much agree with Dave with one slight exception. In terms of getting a third RB on your roster, I don’t see a ton of difference in outlook between this group and the group above them, except at a discounted price. When the prior group is up in the draft, solidify your receivers or QB position. Then at this point, maybe grab a pair and play the odds one will exceed expectations. Lean to upside with Ingram, Pierce and Moreno. Another reason to de-emphasize depth at RB – they are always easier to grab off waivers as the season progresses. Woodhead is unheralded and will never offer much trade value, but he can put up solid points, especially in a PPR league.

Tier 7
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
39
Carlos Hyde ®
SF 8 8.06
40
Christine Michael
SEA 4 12.01
41
Terrance West ®
CLE 4 9.07
42
Devonta Freeman ®
ATL 9 9.02
43
Knile Davis
KC 6 13.03

This is the upside tier with all of these running backs having the ability to have breakout seasons provided the players ahead of them on the depth chart suffer significant injuries. While Hyde has looked solid, we fully expect him to work in a pure backup role in his rookie season. West has done little to challenge Ben Tate in Cleveland while Michael can’t seem to overtake Robert Turbin for the lead backup role to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. That leaves Freeman as the player in this tier most likely to earn a major role with only the aging Steven Jackson ahead of him.

Mike’s Take: Upside tier? I was calling it the handcuff tier. Although the way drafts go these days, in my experience, less and less does the owner of say, Marshawn Lynch, acquire Lynch’s anticipated direct handcuff, Michael. This could also be known as the lottery ticket tier, and everyone likes playing the lottery for a big potential payoff. Just make sure when you buy your ticket, you aren’t overpaying. This tier is also very much in flux as players with the most “upside” move in and out of here constantly.

Tier 8
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
44
Khiry Robinson
NO 6 11.05
45
Ahmad Bradshaw
IND 10 11.10
46
James Starks
GB 9 13.09
47
Shonn Greene
TEN 9 12.08
48
Stevan Ridley
NE 10 7.08
49
Darren Sproles
PHI 7 7.11
50
Jeremy Hill ®
CIN 4 10.04
51
Chris Ivory
NYJ 11 12.05
52
LeGarrette Blount
PIT 12 11.07
53
Lance Dunbar
DAL 11 13.12

At this point in your draft, you’re pulling slots although some pulls are better than others. With a 7th round ADP, Ridley and especially Sproles are overvalued. Out of this group, Bradshaw, Hill, Ivory and Dunbar are solid values. Of particular interest are Ivory, who seems a much better match in the Jets offense than free agent signee Chris Johnson, and Jeremy Hill, who could emerge as a solid RB3 if the Bengals determine that Giovani Bernard is more effective in a committee role than as a workhorse back. While Greene may open the season getting a fair amount of touches in Tennessee, we expect that to change early in 2014.

Mike’s Take: This is a mixed bag of handcuffs and role players that could contribute from time to time in the right matchup, and contribute more if one of their teammates goes down. With recent rumors Ridley might not even make the Patriots final roster, his ADP is likely overstated, but he could bounce back quickly if (when) he finds employment elsewhere. Personal preference is the name of the game here, and mine include Bradshaw, Blount and Dunbar.

Tier 9
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
54
Tre Mason ®
STL 4 14.02
55
Fred Jackson
BUF 9 7.12
56
Andre Williams ®
NYG 8 10.03
57
Bryce Brown
BUF 9 –
58
Stepfan Taylor
ARI 4 –
59
Jonathan Grimes
HOU 10 –
60
James White ®
NE 10 13.06

While there are some solid values in Tier 8, that isn’t as much of the case in Tier 9 outside of one major exception. With Arian Foster struggling with injuries in the preseason, there is no valid reason why Jonathan Grimes is going undrafted in standard 12 team, 15 roster spot formats. His ADP is likely depressed given the late start getting on fantasy players’ radars.

Mike’s Take: Even in 12-team leagues of moderate depth, many of these guys aren’t getting drafted, but you need to know the names so you are ready to grab them off the waiver wire when the time comes a starter goes down. Also refer to our “Not Ranked – On The Radar” section of our RB cheatsheet.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 27, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) on the sidelines during the NFL game between the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. The Steelers defeated the Lions 37-27. November 17, 2013; Photographer: Justin Berl/Icon Sportswire

There are many worthy suitors, but can any of them unseat Lord Megatron – Calvin Johnson – as lead dog amongst a talented and deep group of wide receivers for fantasy football? Photo: Icon Sportswire

As the NFL has become more of a passing league, fantasy owners are increasingly tempted to turn the fate of their team’s success over to the wide receiver position with many owners using 1st and 2nd round picks on the position.

That doesn’t seem like a crazy proposition when you review last year’s fantasy rankings at the position and see that six players had more than 200 points (standard scoring, no points-per-reception).

Where that theory falls down is when you review this year’s ADP and take note of the running backs available in Rounds 3 and 4. At that point in the draft, the availability of running backs with strong upside potential is nearly extinct with Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Ryan Mathews, Frank Gore and Bishop Sankey going in those rounds.

And, if you were unlucky enough to get saddled with the 12th pick in a 12-team league and used your first two picks on wide receivers, you are likely looking at a duo that includes some combination of Jennings, Gerhart, Mathews and Gore.

If that doesn’t sound like a championship winning depth chart at running back, it’s because it’s not, particularly in leagues with no points for receptions. In PPR leagues, you can tend to find some serviceable running backs that are big contributors in their team’s passing game.

While there are those that advocate using both of your first two picks at the wide receiver position, and to a degree punting the RB position, we don’t subscribe to that theory. In fact, the increased production at WR should actually help devalue it.

Last season, 23 wide receivers topped 1,000 receiving yards and 30 scored more than 120 fantasy points. Based on the current ADP, this year’s 30th ranked wide receiver (currently Marques Colston, a perennial 1,000 yard receiver) is being taken with the 2nd pick in the 7th round, 72nd overall. Needless to say but necessary to point out, that is tremendous value.

Tier 1
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
1
Calvin Johnson
DET 9 1.05
2
Demaryius Thomas
DEN 4 1.08
3
Dez Bryant
DAL 11 1.11
4
A.J. Green
CIN 4 2.01
5
Brandon Marshall
CHI 9 2.03
6
Julio Jones
ATL 9 2.05

Last year, there were six 200 point wide receivers and we have six players ranked in our top tier, with Josh Gordon the only top player from last year not in the upper tier. You could certainly make the argument this should be split into two tiers with Johnson and Thomas having the upper tier all to themselves. Having any of these players on your roster should yield fruit but since they are going within the first 17 overall picks, they come at a huge cost. Nonetheless, we won’t argue with acquiring any one of them as long as you come away with a running back in the first two rounds.

Mike’s Take: For positions where I need multiple starters – RB and WR – I like to tag one of each early in the draft. This keeps things flexible later on, to support acquiring players who inexplicably drop in the draft and represent really strong value. This may also explain why I rarely draft a QB or TE in the first round, as I always feel I’m playing catch up at RB or WR. Anyway, for these Tier 1 WR in particular, you pretty much can’t go wrong. All are exceptional talents. If I start RB and get Marshall or Jones in the second round, I’m ecstatic.

Tier 2
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
7
Jordy Nelson
GB 9 2.09
8
Antonio Brown
PIT 12 2.11
9
Vincent Jackson
TB 7 3.10
10
Keenan Allen
SD 10 3.08
11
Michael Floyd
ARI 4 5.03
12
Alshon Jeffery
CHI 9 3.01

The second tier of wide receivers consists of six talented receivers, all supported by solid quarterbacks other than perhaps Jackson. This group is dominated by big receivers who are solid red zone threats with Brown and Allen coming up the rear in that analysis. Of this group, Nelson has the most upside and Floyd is easily checking in as the value option due to his ridiculously low ADP. As with Tier 1, you should feel very comfortable with any of these options.

Mike’s Take: Its clear we really liked Michael Floyd from the get-go this season as we had him ranked high early. His ADP has risen over the summer but he is still undervalued in many drafts. If you can get him as your WR2, that’s great. It is a pretty fine line between these guys and the tier above them. There is just a little more risk with this group preventing them from being considered elite level fantasy stars at the position, but it wouldn’t surprise if any finished as Top 3 WR by season’s end.

Tier 3
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
13
Emmanuel Sanders
DEN 4 6.07
14
Victor Cruz
NYG 8 4.03
15
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI 4 4.06
16
Randall Cobb
GB 9 3.03
17
Michael Crabtree
SF 8 4.12

In Tier 3, there is a clear delineation between the risk/reward variable from this tier and Tier 2. This tier is dominated by talented wide receivers with either injury or age concerns other than Sanders who is with a new team, albeit with a great quarterback, and perhaps Cruz, who failed to top 1,000 yards last season. Cobb is a major risk at his current ADP. However, since the discrepancy between running back quality from the 3rd to 4th rounds is greater than the discrepancy between wide receivers in those rounds, you can’t argue that any of these wide receivers are being overvalued outside of Cobb.

Mike’s Take: After Wes Welker’s injury, and Sanders’ impressive preseason, it felt like the right move to swap the two of them in the rankings. Should two WR from the same team be ranked so high together as we have Demaryius Thomas and Sanders? Marshall and Jeffery think it is okay. Sanders should be a strong target in your drafts at this point. Don’t take him where we have him ranked. Like Floyd, you can usually draft him later and reap the benefits as a result. I’m not that excited by the other receivers in this tier, except Crabtree is intriguing if not for the competition for catches on the 49ers unless they really open up the offense.

Tier 4
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
18
Pierre Garcon
WAS 10 4.04
19
DeSean Jackson
WAS 10 5.04
20
Roddy White
ATL 9 4.04
21
Kendall Wright
TEN 9 8.01
22
Cordarrelle Patterson
MIN 10 4.09
23
Percy Harvin
SEA 4 5.06

Tier 4 features more talented wide receivers but the risk profiles increase as we move to the higher tiers. The Redskins duo has a quarterback who is prone to putting himself in harm’s way. Wright is a poor option in the red zone, Patterson is largely unproven and Harvin has missed 22 regular season games over the last two years and plays in a run based offense. Given these factors, this tier is all about value. And the value picks here are definitely White and Wright.

Mike’s Take: In a recent draft I got Julio Jones in the early second round, and then was struggling later as Roddy White represented amazing value falling in the draft, but I couldn’t pull the trigger to have two Falcon wideouts on one roster. Wright scored 2 TD last year. That has to go up, right – Wright? Patterson is the ultimate boom-bust pick. We had him higher earlier but reeled it in a bit. I’d be comfortable with drafting him about this spot. Harvin I have little interest in, and if one of the Redskins pair go crazy this season, I guess I’m fine letting someone else be right, than risk drafting either one and being wrong.

Tier 5
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
24
Marques Colston
NO 6 6.12
25
Andre Johnson
HOU 10 4.10
26
Julian Edelman
NE 10 6.07
27
Torrey Smith
BAL 11 6.01
28
Mike Wallace
MIA 5 7.02
29
Wes Welker
DEN 4 4.07

Johnson is aging, moping due to his dismal QB situation, and sliding down boards. I’m still not biting. Colston on the other hand continues to be in a great situation and represents solid value where he is getting drafted. Wallace is as inconsistent as they come and Edelman benefitted last season from injuries to Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. Outside of Colston, if there’s a player to grab here, it is Smith who rates as the most likely to emerge as a high end WR2 even if he isn’t a great value with an ADP of 6.03.

Mike’s Take: I’m more bullish on Edelman than Dave, but for +1 PPR leagues only. He should give solid returns there, but falls down significantly in non-PPR leagues. Smith I like okay but he always seems to be over-drafted each year. Colston should give us what we normally expect, which may prove to be a decent return this year as he slides down rankings with fantasy players passing on him for youthful upside.

Tier 6
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
30
Golden Tate
DET 9 7.06
31
Jeremy Maclin
PHI 7 6.04
32
Kelvin Benjamin ®
CAR 12 8.09
33
Sammy Watkins ®
BUF 9 7.08
34
Terrance Williams
DAL 11 7.12

If there is a wide receiver tier to avoid, this is it as there isn’t much value to be had here. It will be no surprise if Tate bombs after signing a lucrative contact with Detroit. Maclin has talent but not a 1,000 yard receiving season to his credit. Watkins is a big risk unless E.J. Manuel starts showing something. Benjamin is a fast riser after an impressive preseason, but now Cam Newton is banged up it could put the brakes on the Benjamin for ROY train. Williams might be the safest of the lot here. We’ll take him with a late 7th round pick, but second year player, new starter and third receiving option (or forth, behind DeMarco Murray) on the Cowboys is a bit of a roll of the dice week to week.

Mike’s Take: This is a, “if they fall far enough, I’ll take them”, category. Jump on Benjamin if he drops to his ADP as that is rising quickly, but more than likely I’m looking at other positions around the time these guys are getting drafted.

Tier 7
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
35
Cecil Shorts
JAC 11 11.12
36
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU 10 10.08
37
Anquan Boldin
SF 8 11.02
38
Hakeem Nicks
IND 10 10.02
39
Kenny Stills
NO 6 11.07
40
T.Y. Hilton
IND 10 5.08
41
Eric Decker
NYJ 11 8.09
42
Dwayne Bowe
KC 6 9.08
43
Doug Baldwin
SEA 4 –
44
Mike Evans ®
TB 7 10.05
45
Justin Hunter
TEN 9 10.06

Cecil Shorts in the 11th round? Sign me up. Tier 7 features a plethora of wide receivers capable of big years (as in 1,000 yards and six touchdowns) but who we would all make us mildly surprised if they managed to pull off that feat. That means we need to dig a little deeper here to find the value. As in, who figures to get the most targets, who has competition for those targets, who plays with a solid quarterback and who plays in an offense that should score lots of points. Let’s go with Hopkins and Bowe as the players to nab here. And if I can get Nicks at the top of the 10th round or Hilton with a late pick in the 5th round, Nicks is clearly the value option. The balance of this tier should be avoided based on their ADP.

Mike’s Take: So Dave likes Shorts, Hopkins and Bowe. Think I prefer Nicks, Stills (depending on severity of his quad injury) and Hunter, not necessarily in that order. That kind of describes this tier. Everyone is going to have a different opinion on who they prefer from a group of wideouts at this stage of the draft. We’ve tried to balance risk and reward in differentiating between our Tiers 6 through 10.

Tier 8
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
46
Rueben Randle
NYG 8 9.06
47
Brandin Cooks ®
NO 6 6.09
48
Greg Jennings
MIN 10 13.03
49
Riley Cooper
PHI 7 9.05
50
Tavon Austin
STL 4 9.12
51
Markus Wheaton
PIT 12 12.01
52
Jordan Matthews ®
PHI 7 11.10

This is where the risk-reward starts to tilt heavily to the risk side. Where does opportunity reside in this Tier? Randle has decent talent but struggled with mental lapses last season. However, if he can hold off Odell Beckham, Jr., he has an opportunity to put together a solid season and is far and away the team’s best target in the red zone. In Philadelphia, we expect the impressive rookie Matthews to siphon enough targets away from Riley Cooper to render both of them essentially irrelevant for fantasy purposes. Pittsburgh’s Markus Wheaton boasts impressive credentials but backed up with little production, making him a boom or bust proposition in 2014. He is worth a flier and definitely worth a mid-12th round draft pick.

Tier 9
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
53
Steve Smith
BAL 11 12.07
54
Kenny Britt
STL 4 11.08
55
Reggie Wayne
IND 10 7.09
56
Danny Amendola
NE 10 10.09
57
James Jones
OAK 5 14.03
58
Andrew Hawkins
CLE 4 –
59
Mohamed Sanu
CIN 4 –
60
Jarrett Boykin
GB 9 11.12
Tier 10
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
61
Jerricho Cotchery
CAR 12 –
62
Rod Streater
OAK 5 –
63
Brian Hartline
MIA 5 14.01
64
Odell Beckham Jr. ®
NYG 8 –
65
Jerrel Jernigan
NYG 8 –
66
Steve Johnson
SF 8 –
67
Marvin Jones
CIN 4 13.08

Once bitten, twice shy. Or is that constantly bitten and should know better but can’t resist? Reports out of St. Louis indicate that Britt is having an outstanding camp but his history of off the field issues and lack of productivity mean you should only grab him very late, which is where he is being drafted. Wayne is ridiculously overvalued at the moment and Amendola is hardly worthy of a selection in the 10th round. Hawkins is an intriguing PPR prospect given the current state of the Browns wide receivers and how Streater’s ADP is so far below James Jones’ is definitely interesting.

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