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Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Detroit Lions Team Report

June 23, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

While Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson remains the most physically imposing wide receiver in the league, the days of him being regarded as the undisputed king of the position are now history.

While Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson remains the most physically imposing wide receiver in the league, the days of him being regarded as the undisputed king of the position are now history.

QB Matthew Stafford

It has been three long years since Stafford burst onto the fantasy scene by throwing for 5,038 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. Since then, his passing yards have declined for three straight seasons (4,967 to 4,647 to 4,247 last season) and he has managed just 71 touchdown passes despite attempting 1,963 passes and throwing for 13,861 yards. While some of last year’s production issues can be chalked up to Calvin Johnson’s injury issues (he missed three games and was little more than a decoy in two others), the truth is that Stafford has never developed into the quarterback that most expected he would. He attempts a lot of passes but his completion percentage is low and his lack of accuracy is really exposed in the red zone. There is ample evidence at this point to project Stafford as a lower tier QB1 albeit one who could surprise with an elite fantasy season given the talent that surrounds him in the Detroit offense.

RB Joique Bell

Expected to play second fiddle to Reggie Bush in 2014, Bell emerged as the Lions main option at running back, gaining just under 1,200 total yards and scoring eight touchdowns for the second consecutive year. With Bush having been released early in the offseason, it appeared Bell was headed for a major role in 2015 before Detroit used a 2nd round pick in the NFL Draft to acquire Ameer Abdullah. We guess they took note of his advancing age (29 by opening day) and less than stellar YPC (under 4.0 for two consecutive seasons). Abdullah’s acquisition puts a damper on Bell’s breakout potential but we expect that he will continue to work in a platoon situation while handling the short yardage work. Even though there is a flashy new toy in town, look for Bell to once again approach 250 touches, 1,100 total yards and 7-9 touchdowns, production that makes him a solid, if somewhat risky, mid-tier RB2.

RB Ameer Abdulllah

Having jettisoned Reggie Bush, the Lions used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft to acquire his replacement in Nebraska product Ameer Abdullah. Not that big, not that fast, Abdullah will most likely work as a change of pace and receiving option in his rookie year, although the Lions won’t hesitate to move him into the starting line-up over Joique Bell should he prove worthy of the leading role. However, the more likely scenario is that Abdullah will work in a platoon this season with an emphasis on the pass receiving role out of the Lions backfield provided he improves his ball handling and abilities in pass protection. Given his production in college, he has the potential to emerge as a lower tier RB3 in that role in 2015. He is also a solid dynasty prospect albeit one that will almost certainly never emerge as a workhorse type back.

RB Theo Riddick

Despite Riddick’s solid production as a pass receiver out of the backfield, the Lions drafted his replacement in that role, acquiring Ameer Abdullah with a 2nd round pick. Although Riddick was prolific as a receiver, catching 34 of his 50 targets for 316 yards and four touchdowns, he is extremely limited as a runner, gaining just 76 yards on 29 carries as a professional. For fantasy purposes, he only warrants consideration in PPR formats under the condition that Abdullah proves not ready for action by opening day.

WR Calvin Johnson

While Johnson remains the most physically imposing wide receiver in the league, the days of him being regarded as the undisputed king of the wide receiver position are now history. In 2014, he posted his lowest reception and yardage totals since the 2010 season as injuries caused him to miss three games and he was little more than a decoy in two other games. While that sounds gloomy, it’s worth noting that he caught 68 passes for 1,058 yards and eight touchdowns in the 11 games that he was healthy, production that would rate as an upper tier WR1 over 16 games. But it’s the 16 game question that is the issue with Johnson, as he has missed two games in each of the past two seasons and was banged up for several other contests. At 29 years of age (30 in September), he has some wear and tear from being such a big man playing the majority of the games in his career on artificial surfaces. At this point, with some obvious decline in his game, we rate Megatron as a mid to lower tier WR1 who clearly has the potential to move to elite status provided he can remain healthy for an entire season.

WR Golden Tate

After increasing his target, receptions and yardage totals every year during his four-year stay in Seattle, Tate was signed to a five-year, $31-million contract prior to the 2014 season by the Lions. At the time, it seemed rather exorbitant but Tate proved worthy of the contract, as he showed significant improvement once again, reaching career highs in targets with 143, receptions with 99 and yards with 1,331 while hauling in four touchdown receptions. Will the career trajectory move upward once again for Tate in 2015? Well, his production has improved every year that he has been in the league. However, a review of the 2014 season reveals that Tate posted 39 receptions for 599 yards and three touchdowns in the five games that Calvin Johnson was either injured or used as a decoy but just 60 receptions for 732 yards and one touchdown during the 11 games that Johnson was healthy. If you aren’t expecting Johnson to miss time in 2015, then you shouldn’t project Tate as anything more than a high end WR3 with upside.

WR Corey Fuller

Taken in the 6th round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Fuller languished on the practice squad before earning a roster spot last season. A slender 6’2″ and 196 pounds, Fuller possesses outstanding speed and the Lions expect him to fulfill a role as the team’s top backup wide receiver in 2015. With Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate ahead of him on the depth chart as well as two solid pass catching tight ends and three capable pass receiving running backs, we don’t expect Fuller to see enough targets to be a viable fantasy option in 2015.

WR Ryan Broyles

It was another lost season for Broyles in 2014 as he fell behind Corey Fuller and Jeremy Ross on the depth chart, appearing in just five games and catching two passes. Entering the final season of his rookie contract, Broyles enters training camp in a dogfight to retain his roster spot. With Fuller possessing outstanding speed and Ross a solid contributor on special teams, Broyles just might be on the outside looking in come opening day.

TE Eric Ebron

Taken with the 10th pick in the 1st round of last year’s draft, Ebron face planted as a rookie, catching just 25 of his 49 targets for 248 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers more reflect what you would expect from a veteran journeyman playing out his final days in the league as a backup than a high 1st round pick. However, he was stuck behind a solid veteran in Brandon Pettigrew on the depth chart and rookie tight ends often struggle adapting to life in the NFL, especially blocking in the trenches, something Ebron was not asked to do much of in college. The Lions are banking on a big leap forward in 2015 but with so many solid weapons in Detroit’s offensive arsenal, we aren’t about to predict a breakout season for him. He rates as a mid to low end TE2 with upside, especially if he can earn quarterback Matthew Stafford’s trust in the red zone.

Also see: Detroit Lions IDP Team Report | Miami Dolphins Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, NFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

After much posturing, RB Adrian Peterson returns to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back in 2016.

After much posturing, RB Adrian Peterson returns to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back in 2016.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Chicago Bears

  • Jay Cutler had the highest completion percentage and second highest points-per-game of his career last season. He hasn’t played 16 games since 2009 (15 three times). Cutler is Cutler at this point. He’ll put up some big games with his strong arm but he’ll also be shite half the time. He lost security blanket Brandon Marshall, and Matt Forte’s receptions should come down. Former Denver Broncos OC Adam Gase, even under conservative John Fox, could be a plus.
  • Forte should not be utilized as much as he was under Marc Trestman, but still a do-it-all RB worthy of a high fantasy pick. The Bears have a couple young players waiting in the wings, planning ahead for life without Forte. Training camp should decide the true handcuff.
  • Can Alshon Jeffery do the same for rookie Kevin White that Marshall did for Jeffery, mentor him to become a top NFL wideout? Projecting this year, Jeffery has a good opportunity to increase his targets and receptions, without Marshall and a scale back for Forte. White will start opposite Jeffery but isn’t likely to be ready for a ton of targets. Cutler will lock on to a receiver he is comfortable with.
  • Martellus Bennett was second in TE targets last season. With a rookie WR and not much at WR3 for the Bears, he should be in the mix for similar targets this season.

Detroit Lions

  • Matthew Stafford was a disappointment last season, and he can’t blame the absence of Calvin Johnson for three games because Golden Tate was a pleasant surprise, filling in admirably. We’ve got Stafford leading the league in pass attempts, which is in part an indictment of the running game, and desire to get TE Eric Ebron more involved. A modest bounce back for Stafford which makes him a fantasy starter, but not an overly desirable one.
  • The running game is Joique Bell, rookie Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. Reggie Bush signed with the San Francisco 49ers. Bell is average, Abdullah and Riddick are small at just a hair over 200 lbs. Some fantasy experts are bullish about Abdullah. He’s got a good opportunity for an immediate impact.
  • Calvin Johnson recorded his lowest targets, receptions and yards this decade last season. His 3-year average is skewed high due to his record setting 2012 season. The current short downward trend provides an opportunity to acquire Johnson, now 29-years old, at a discount from his natural talent level. Golden Tate was impressive last season, but scaling back his projections this year to 80-1,000-6.
  • Ebron is a tough call this season. The team wants him more involved, but is he ready for that? This is one where his cheatsheet ranking should be higher than his projections would place him based on potential.

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are projected extremely close to one another in fantasy points, but Rodgers has 50 fewer pass attempts and 10 fewer rushes. Rodgers ticks all the boxes to justify grabbing an elite QB early in your draft.
  • Eddie Lacy followed up a 280 carry, 1,100 yard rookie season with a 250 carry, 1,100 yard sophomore season. That is impressive. He’ll be the workhorse no doubt because there is nothing behind him on the depth chart worth mentioning. Projecting very similar output as last season.
  • Jordy Nelson required offseason hip surgery but doesn’t seem the least bit concerned about it. I didn’t expect Randall Cobb to stay healthy to play 16 games last season. He did, and he was great. A repeat 90 receptions for each of Nelson and Cobb might be tough if up and comer Davante Adams gets a bump, but there is still a black hole at TE on this team (for fantasy).

Minnesota Vikings

  • After a lot of chest pumping, Adrian Peterson returned to Vikings team activities, making our full season workload projection less up in the air. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back. We have him down his 3-year average but, similar to Calvin Johnson, the average is skewed due to his near record setting 2012 season.
  • Teddy Bridgewater showed nice progress as the season went on last year, especially considering things went off the rails quickly with Peterson. We’re expecting a similar trend starting and through this season, to the tune of a slightly sub-4,000 yard season and 20 TD. He has a nice supporting cast and a smart offensive coordinator in Norv Turner. A solid choice for a backup QB with potential to exceed expectations.
  • Mike Wallace comes to town. No doubt his contract has outpaced his on-field performance, but even with difficulties connecting or getting on the same page with the Dolphins Ryan Tannehill, Wallace did score 10 TD last season. Wallace is never going to be a monster reception guy, but Turner can probably maximize what Wallace brings to the table.
  • Charles Johnson was a nice surprise last year and earned a projection placing him inside the top 40 WR, but we can’t go too crazy by the time Peterson and Wallace have their touches. Cordarelle Patterson disappointed fantasy owners last season and no real reason to think he’ll ever live up to the 2014 fantasy hype.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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