DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Pre-Preseason Projections and Rankings Update, Team Notes

By Leave a Comment

It’s a new month – August! NFL preseason is about to get going and this is the biggest month of the fantasy football calendar all year when the majority of fantasy drafts take place. Our projections and cheatsheet rankings are in need of an update. Check them out, and here are the team news and notes from the last week to accompany those changes.

For Draft Buddy users, I will update a copy of Projection Pal and make it available to download, so you can import our updated projections.

Arizona Cardinals

  • RB Stepfan Taylor worked ahead of Jonathan Dwyer with the first team offense while starter Andre Ellington sat out with a sore neck. Noting this here to keep tabs on next man up should anything happen to Ellington.
  • Glowing reports continue for WR John Brown. Could be something to see here.

Atlanta Falcons

  • RB Steven Jackson is dealing with a hamstring injury and missing practice time. The veteran doesn’t really need much training camp time anyway, but if he’s struggling to stay healthy this early that is a concern to fantasy players.

Carolina Panthers

  • WR Kelvin Benjamin is missing time with what coach Ron Rivera described as a bone bruise on his knee. They don’t seem that concerned but generally when a rookie misses time, it is at least some concern. He is expected back relatively soon.

Cleveland Browns

  • WR Josh Gordon‘s suspension hearing was scheduled for August 1st, although last note I read was not to expect to hear the outcome of that meeting just yet. More waiting, but there should be a decision soon.

Dallas Cowboys

  • WR Cole Beasley is drawing good reviews from training camp. He’s down the pecking order, for sure, but a name to keep in mind in the event of injury and because the offense is anticipated to be very pass heavy.

Detroit Lions

  • WR Golden Tate was removed from the PUP list to take part in regular training camp practice. He was on there with shoulder soreness.

Indianapolis Colts

  • RB Vick Ballard is out for the season after tearing his Achilles’. Unfortunate. We felt Ballard could press for touches against Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw becomes a more attractive commodity at this point.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • The more I think about it the more I think Chad Henne starts and plays all season barring injury, while Blake Bortles sits, watches and learns. We had their projections relatively close to a split, but changing that up so majority is Henne.
  • Conflicting reports from Jacksonville that the team wants RB Toby Gerhart to have 20+ carries per game, but then they want to be careful he doesn’t surpass 300 carries. Regardless of the exact usage, Gerhart is in line to be a work horse back, a more rare commodity in this age of the NFL and for fantasy football. We just aren’t optimistic on Gerhart’s ability to be overly productive with those carries.
  • Marqise Lee is getting lots of reps in practice with Cecil Shorts sidelined (hamstring) and Ace Sanders out (personal). Fellow rookie Allen Robinson is also out a couple weeks with a hamstring injury.

Miami Dolphins

  • RB Knowshon Moreno is still recovering from issues with his knee, and says he may not play in the preseason at all. His value drops further. Unless he’s an absolute bargain on draft day I would have a tough time pulling the trigger and using a roster spot on him.
  • WR Mike Wallace is missing practice with hamstring tightness. Hamstrings are the injury du jour for wide receivers this summer.

Minnesota Vikings

  • Matt Cassel is in the lead as the projected starting quarterback, but Teddy Bridgewater is apparently closing the gap. An early week report indicates Bridgewater will get some time with the starters during preseason games.
  • Reviewing our projections and rankings, Bridgewater we have projected as the starter but ranked slightly lower. That’s a mistake. Don’t draft Cassel. Draft Bridgewater in dynasty, deep keepers and late in 2-QB redraft leagues.

New England Patriots

  • Initial timetable on WR Aaron Dobson recovering from foot surgery in March was two to three months, but it seems that was optimistic. He isn’t showing any change of direction work while rehabbing and on the PUP list currently. He might not be ready for the start of the season, so I’m pulling him out of the rankings and distributing about half his earlier projections across other receivers.

New York Giants

  • News on the comeback of RB David Wilson from neck surgery took a bad turn this week. An upcoming surgeon’s evaluation has called into question, and reports definitely leaned more pessimistic, on whether Wilson can continue his football career. More news is needed but this drops major red flags on Wilson right now.
  • Reuben Randle had some hamstring issues earlier in the week but appears okay. Rookie Odell Beckham Jr. on the other hand, he’s out at least a week with a bothersome hamstring. He also missed time during OTAs for the same reason, drawing the ire of head coach Tom Coughlin.

New York Jets

  • Large majority of first-team reps are going to Geno Smith, and little to none to Michael Vick. This is the quarterback training camp battle that never was. It is Geno Smith time until he gets hurt or the coaches – rightfully so – feel forced to switch in an effort to keep themselves employed.

San Francisco 49ers

  • RB Kendall Hunter tore his ACL and is lost for the year, while LaMichael James dislocated his elbow. Even though James is expected back Week 1, he wasn’t going to be a big factor backing up Frank Gore. We dropped Marcus Lattimore last week in our rankings on the heels of not very encouraging rehab reports. Given that, it looks like Carlos Hyde is the clear cut handcuff for Gore, and could earn a good number of touches with suddenly little competition behind him. Hyde moves up.

Seattle Seahawks

  • RB Marshawn Lynch ended his holdout. No one holds out like they used to. Remember Joey Galloway? We hadn’t changed Lynch’s projections or ranking anyway, so no need to change it back now.

Washington Redskins

  • WR Pierre Garcon is sitting out with … you guessed it … a strained hamstring.

Projections vs. Rankings Discussion, Plus an Update and Supporting Team Notes

By Leave a Comment

In anticipation of this week’s projections and rankings update, Thursday I asked Dave for some bullet points suggesting necessary changes to ensure I didn’t miss anything. I was thinking recent news items when I asked him, while Dave took more of an overview approach.

A few of Dave’s points were, for example, “Tom Brady projected too low for his ranking,” or, “gap between Cordarrelle Patterson’s projection and his ranking is too much.” You see, we do have some differences between rankings and projections, and the reason for that is because, while the projections are a best approximation of what stats we think a player will produce, a ranking can sometimes better reflect risk and upside not easily captured in projections.

Take Bernard Pierce for example, prior to the Ray Rice news he is only suspended two games (we were expecting perhaps six to eight). While we had Pierce projected about 40th amongst RB with a 150-600, 3 TD rushing plus 25-190 receiving line, he was ranked a little higher – 32nd – to reflect the upside of him possibly stepping into the starter’s job for an extended time, and maybe even holding that role when Rice comes back. This will now change with recent news, but it provides a possible scenario where projections and rankings are justifiably not exactly in sync.

So, Dave’s comments got me to thinking about which players have the biggest difference between our cheatsheet rankings, and rankings based purely on the player projections. Perhaps each of these players requires a bit more investigation. Well, I plunked both our draftbuddy.com projections and rankings into Draft Buddy and figured out who these guys are at each position.

QB

We are bullish on Griffin to rebound from his injury slowed 2013 season and thanks to the addition of Jay Gruden, but he is ranked lower than the projections because of risk since he can take a beating with his rushing, and due to learning a new offense.

As noted above, Dave mentioned Brady is projected too low and that looks like an accurate statement to the point an adjustment is necessary.

Need to review Tannehill’s projections, but if they seem reasonable and we can draft him outside the top 24 QB, then that is a value pick.

RB

Similar to Griffin, Foster is a risk due to a lot of wear and tear, although he has a great opportunity to return to his former self if he can stay healthy. Hence the high projections, slightly more conservative ranking.

Ben Tate is slightly up from his projections given his upside in a new offense that appears committed to running the ball.

We are not true believers in Rashad Jennings as the Giants starter, so while he is projected high based on positive recent reports he’ll receive a high number of touches, we offer a more skeptical ranking of his prospects.

Stevan Ridley probably shouldn’t be this different, other than it is tough predicting what the Patriots will do with their running backs from week to week.

Joique Bell is not a player we are very interested in adding to our fantasy squads this year, although many other experts are keen on his prospects.

WR

The lack of depth amongst Falcons receivers kind of forced our hand to put more targets, catches and yards on a now healthy Roddy White, but in terms of ranking we’re not ready to put him into the Top 20.

Similarly with Torrey Smith, he is the top receiver on the Ravens, but seems to get over-drafted each year. We’d rather avoid drafting Smith altogether, so we pushed him down the rankings.

It is difficult to get a read on the split of targets amongst Colts receivers right now, so Hilton is projected 26th, but risky to draft there.

Dave and I disagreed on where to rank Patterson (and Wes Welker, for that matter) from Day 1 creating our projections and rankings. Patterson represents one of the biggest boom-bust picks on the board this season. He probably should be moved down a tad given uncertainty about his targets and potential rushing stats.

Austin is another big question mark about how much the Rams will use him. The talent is there to support the projections and quite possibly exceed them. The high expectations, low production last year still stings, resulting in the low ranking.

TE

Cook is someone we expect to churn out okay stats over the course of a season based on volume, but not one to help win us many weeks.

For Chandler, see Cook, the only difference being Chandler is so off the radar I’m inclined to add him extremely late in best-ball format leagues.

That gives some more insight into our combined projections and rankings process, and highlights some players for us to review prior to the update. And now, the team notes to accompany the changes:

Arizona Cardinals

  • Andre Ellington‘s receptions appear low at 40 since he had 39 as a rookie and backup.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Very surprised Ray Rice only received a 2-game suspension, but that is what happened, earning him a bump in his projections and rankings, while anticipated replacement starter Bernard Pierce gets knocked down.
  • Hmm… it seems we were pretty low on the combined Ravens running game in the projections to begin with. Change is Rice up, and Pierce down but not by much.

Carolina Panthers

  • Are Cam Newton‘s receivers as bad as everyone is making them out to be, ourselves included, or are they really pretty similar to last season? We’ll keep Cam where he is ranked (as in, do not draft territory), but if we start to get wowed by rookie Kelvin Benjamin things could change.
  • Not at all surprised Jonathan Stewart is injured. He pulled him hamstring. They are saying he’s out 1-2 weeks, for now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • One of Dave’s notes to me says he’s worried we haven’t reeled in Andy Dalton‘s numbers enough from last season based on the team’s increased emphasis on the running game.
  • Jermaine Gresham opens training camp on the PUP list, opening the door for Tyler Eifert to have a bigger impact.

Cleveland Browns

  • Update: Josh Gordon is planning to appeal his one-year suspension on August 1.

Dallas Cowboys

  • Reviewing Tony Romo‘s projections he might be a little low since we haven’t heard a negative report on his back in some time.

Denver Broncos

  • I mentioned above Dave and I disagree on Wes Welker. He thinks we have him too high; I think Welker is a relatively safe, high floor pick, as long as concussion issues to rear their ugly head again (admittedly, a sizeable concern). I passed on Welker at pick 4.09 as my WR2 in an ongoing best ball redraft in favor of Vincent Jackson, and would have loved Welker to come back to me as my WR3. Instead he got nabbed at 5.03 one pick before my next selection.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Ace Sanders faces a four-game suspension to start the season, and is missing training camp due to personal issues. It seems he is dealing with substance-abuse problems. More opportunity for the rookie receivers. Sanders is off the projections board with more going to Marqise Lee and Mike Brown.

New England Patriots

  • Rob Gronkowski not placed on PUP list to open training camp, which is great news. Although he is still limited in practice and this is no guarantee he is ready for Week 1, continued positive reports will motivate us to move him up into the top tier at TE from his current spot at start of Tier 2.
  • Aaron Dobson was placed on the PUP list, and I’m mentioning that here because he is a player I’m intrigued by given the sketchy receiving options on the Patriots and his extremely low draft cost right now. Would like to see him healthy and fully participating.

New York Giants

  • David Wilson is cleared to practice, which could put more pressure on Rashad Jennings as the projected starter.
  • Odell Beckham Jr. is dealing with a pulled hamstring, so he’s not off to a good start, and this opens the door for Jerrell Jernigan.

New York Jets

  • Taking a cue from Jonathan Stewart, Chris Ivory injured his hamstring and is limited.

Oakland Raiders

Seattle Seahawks

  • Marshawn Lynch is holding out of training camp desiring a pay increase. We aren’t suggesting a change to his projections and rankings right now, but definitely worth keeping an eye on. Good discussion about this during The Audible podcast last night.

  • Sidney Rice retires, not that we had much in the way of projections for him, anyway.