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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

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Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Through Round 10 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Through Round 10 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Quintana 13% 0% 12% -1.25 -2.00
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Porcello 15% 0% 12% -2.50 -1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75
Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 43% 48% 47% 2.75 4.25
Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
New Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

  • Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
  • Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!
Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50
Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
New Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 46% 77% 52% 3.25 4.00
Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
New Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 64% 64% 65% 77% 5.00
Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
New Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 54% 77% 60% 3.50 4.00
Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
New Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 72% 71% 72% 81% 4.00
Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Seager (drafted 16.05) 8% 7% 8% 1% -1.50
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 77% 75% 77% 82% 3.75
Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
New Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 85% 81% 84% 83% 3.50
Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
New Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50
Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
New Pitching Total 69% 90% 77% 2.25 3.50

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Prev. Batting Total 91% 87% 91% 89% 3.50
Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
New Batting Total 97% 94% 98% 93% 1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

  • Pick 22.06, 321st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
  • Pick 23.10, 340th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
  • Pick 24.06, 351st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
  • Pick 25.10, 370th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
  • Pick 26.06, 381st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
  • Pick 27.10, 400th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
  • Pick 28.06, 411st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
  • Pick 29.10, 430th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
  • Pick 30.06, 441st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
C – Wellington Castillo 5% 4% 5% 1% -0.25
C – Tyler Flowers 3% 4% 4% 0% -0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
2B – Brian Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
3B – Maikel Franco 8% 6% 7% 1% -0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
OF – Starling Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
OF – Max Kepler 8% 7% 7% 4% -1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera 6% 6% 7% 6% 0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun 6% 7% 7% 4% -1.75
MI – Tim Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
CI – Matt Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer 7% 8% 8% 4% 0.50
Starters Total 100% 98% 102% 93% 1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Jeimer Candelario 3B 6% 7% 6% 0.02
Starlin Castro 2B 5% 6% 6% 0.04
Zack Cozart 3B 5% 6% 5% 0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Chris Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Charlie Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
Andrew Heaney 11% 0% 12% -1.00 -0.50
Ross Stripling 8% 0% 8% 0.25 0.00
Kenley Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Jose Alvarado 3% 29% 5% 0.50 -0.25
Andrew Miller 4% 13% 6% 0.75 0.50
Core Pitching Total 58% 90% 66% 4.25 4.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Jake Junis 11% 0% 11% -2.00 -1.00
Zach Eflin 12% 0% 9% -1.75 -1.00
Trevor Cahill 8% 0% 8% -1.25 -2.00
Robbie Erlin 6% 0% 6% -1.50 -0.75
Ryan Brasier 3% 18% 4% 0.00 0.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
deGrom 16% 0% 17% 3.25 2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name G R HR RBI SB AVG
w/o Harper (prorated) 151 99 17 69 39 0.267
ATC Projection 151 98 19 73 43 0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Stanton 14% 9% 11% 3% 0.25
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Goldschmidt 11% 9% 10% 7% 2.00
Machado 12% 8% 10% 8% 1.75
Blackmon 9% 10% 7% 7% 2.75
Benintendi 6% 9% 8% 15% 1.75
Merrifield 4% 8% 7% 27% 1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
K.Davis 14% 9% 11% 1% -1.25
Rizzo 10% 8% 10% 4% 1.25
Bellinger 11% 8% 9% 9% 0.00
Hoskins 13% 9% 10% 3% -0.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Rendon 9% 8% 9% 3% 2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP) HR R RBI SB AVG
Marte (37) 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Villar (82) 5% 6% 5% 31% -0.25
M.Smith (99) 2% 7% 4% 30% 0.75
D.Gordon (109) 1% 7% 4% 28% 1.00
Hamilton (164) 1% 6% 3% 29% -1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75
Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
New Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50
Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
New Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Previous Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25
Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75
Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
New Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75
Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
New Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25
Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
New Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

Target Percentages in Mock Draft Action

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Target Percentages guided author Chris Spencer to draft Boston Red Sox OF Mookie Betts with the 8th overall pick in a recent mock draft.

Recently, I introduced the concept of Target Percentages, the percentage of the targeted total stats a player earns for your fantasy baseball team based on his projections. Part one explains the concept and calculations in more detail. For part two, I will show you how to use Target Percentages during a draft.

In a perfect world you would like each batter (or pitcher) you draft to, “pull their own weight” by contributing positively to each category. For a simple example, let’s say you are in a league where you start 10 batters. Ideally, each batter accumulates 10% (or 1/10 starters) of your Runs, 10% of you HR, 10% of your RBI and 10% of your SB. In the ratio categories you just want to stay positive. For other league setups you simply identify your positive contribution line by 1/x where x is the number of batters (or pitchers) you start.

For this mock draft exercise I am drafting from the 8th slot using the same settings continued from part one on Target Percentages: 12-team league, 5×5 roto with 13 hitters, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots. My positive contribution line is 7.7% (1/13) for batters and 11.1% (1/9) for pitchers.

I use color coding to draw attention to the players that are contributing positively and pulling their weight or better on my cheatsheet. Green indicates players that are giving me a positive contribution in that category by scoring 7.7% or more for batters or 11.1% or more for pitchers. Yellow indicates one percentage point away from being green (for batters, 6.7% to 7.69%). This indicator lets me know visually that they are close to contributing positively in that category.

I, personally, don’t color code the ratio categories since I am indicating negative numbers already in red. I suppose you could switch it around and color code positive contributors in green and maybe go down to -0.25 or -0.50 in yellow to indicate they are close to positive. Target Percentages are a tool to use however you see fit.

The last bit of draft prep I do is to identify my Star Players. I add up how many green categories for each player + positive ratio categories and that is their Star Factor. Hello, Mike Trout and Paul Goldschmidt! You will never see a 5-category pitcher. Why? They will never give you enough of what you need for Wins and Saves. These multi-category players are the ones you want to, um, target!

Click the image for the PDF cheatsheet showing target percentages detail used in this mock draft.

Here is a sample cheat sheet for this exercise. Click the image to open the PDF in a new tab. Please refrain from critiquing the cheatsheet (wink). This is meant as a demonstration of how to use Target Percentages during a draft. For this exercise I did a mock draft using FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Simulator. And, away we go…

Pick 1.8 (#8) – I am looking at Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts or Manny Machado, or I can go Matt Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber. I don’t like to draft a pitcher this early. Maybe at the turn, but not at 8. It really boils down to Betts vs. Stanton or in terms of categories the decision is SB and AVG vs. HR and RBI. Betts just misses being a 5-category star and I’m partial to banking high AVG guys early so the pick is Betts.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Mookie Betts 9% 7% 8% 13% 2.00

Pick 2.5 (#17) – Ugh, I was really hoping that Scherzer, Sale or Kluber would make it back to me here but they were all taken. I still have one SP on my cheat sheet that gives me a solid starting foundation for my pitching squad in Noah Syndergaard.

I’m not positive that he will make it back to me as his ADP is late second round to early third, but I’m going to take my chances that I get him at pick #32. Looking at batters, I’ve got Machado, Francisco Lindor and Joey Votto remaining as 4-category stars. Much like Betts, Lindor is a few HR short of being a 5-category star and a shortstop, so I take him. Adding him to Betts gives me:

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Mookie Betts (OF1) 9% 7% 8% 13% 2.00
Francisco Lindor (SS) 8% 7% 8% 9% 1.50
New Batting Total 17% 14% 16% 22% 3.50

Pick 3.8 (#32) – Well, Thor is still here so I snatch him. The three 3-category batters remaining are Brian Dozier, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Abreu. Dozier is out due to the -2.00 AVG hit. I’m going to be taking enough hits later so I don’t need to do so now. Ozuna and Abreu are twins with the same Target Percentage lines so I’m going to cross my fingers and hope one of them is still there in the round 4.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Noah Syndergaard (SP) 12% 0% 14% 1.25 2.00

Pick 4.5 (#41) – Well, all three 3-category guys went off the board. I’m going to snag one of the few batters out there with a high HR% and an AVG that doesn’t put me in a bottomless crater.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Batting Total 17% 14% 16% 22% 3.50
Edwin Encarnacion (1B) 7% 10% 9% 1% -2.25
New Batting Total 24% 24% 25% 23% 1.25

Pick 5.8 (#56) – I’m beginning to see a lot of red remaining on my starting pitchers cheatsheet. I want to get a SP2 that will not put a sizeable dent in the solid ratios Thor gives me so I grab an Archer (Chris Archer) to go with the Hammer.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Noah Syndergaard (SP1) 12% 0% 14% 1.25 2.00
Chris Archer (SP2) 11% 0% 14% 0.25 0.50
New Pitching Total 23% 0% 28% 1.50 2.50

Pick 6.5 (#65) – Whew, it worked. I was hoping Aroldis Chapman would make it back to me! He’s one of the four closers that are 0.75 or higher in ERA.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 23% 0% 28% 1.50 2.50
Aroldis Chapman (RP1) 4% 24% 6% 0.75 0.50
New Pitching Total 27% 24% 34% 2.25 3.00

Pick 7.8 (#80) – I’m going with Andrew McCutchen who just misses projections in the green on Runs, HR and RBI. I feel it is important to point out that a player may have 8% for a category but still be yellow. This is due to rounding. McCutchen for example actually scored 7.66% in Runs but rounded up to 8%.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 24% 24% 25% 23% 1.25
Andrew McCutchen (OF2) 8% 7% 7% 6% -0.75
New Hitting Total 32% 31% 32% 29% 0.50

Pick 8.5 (#89) – I had intended to reach for DJ LeMahieu here to get his +2.75 help in AVG, but alas, it was not meant to be. I’m starting to notice the lack of green left on my cheat sheet for HR and RBI so I take one of my favorites, Miguel Cabrera.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 32% 31% 32% 29% 0.50
Miguel Cabrera (CI) 6% 7% 7% 1% 0.75
New Hitting Total 38% 38% 39% 30% 1.25

Pick 9.8 (#104) – I’m taking Rougned Odor to help me in HR but he is going to put me in the negative in AVG, which stinks. See what I did there? The good news is that there are some positive AVG guys still available in the outfield.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 38% 38% 39% 30% 1.25
Rougned Odor (2B) 6% 8% 8% 8% -2.00
New Hitting Total 44% 46% 47% 38% -0.75

Pick 10.5 (#113) – Taking closer number two. You have to take one somewhere. Why not here? Brad Hand is one of the remaining closers available with a high SV% and positive ratios.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 27% 24% 34% 2.25 3.00
Brad Hand (RP2) 3% 24% 5% 0.25 0.00
New Pitching Total 30% 48% 39% 2.50 3.00

Pick 11.8 (#128) – Kyle Seager, Ender Inciarte or closer number three. Still some decent OF out there so I am adding Seager. And, yes I see my AVG sinking lower.

Batter R HR RBI SB AVG
Old Hitting Total 44% 46% 47% 38% -0.75
Kyle Seager (3B) 7% 7% 7% 2% -1.50
New Hitting Total 51% 53% 54% 40% -2.25

Pick 12.5 (#137) – My third and final closer, Alex Colome. He was one of the few left with a high SV%.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Old Pitching Total 30% 48% 39% 2.50 3.00
Alex Colome (RP3) 3% 28% 4% -0.25 -0.50
New Pitching Total 33% 76% 43% 2.25 2.50

Okay, hopefully you’ve gotten a good grasp of utilizing Target Percentages during the draft. I’m not going to go pick by pick for the rest of the draft, but so far I’ve drafted seven batters and five pitchers.

With my remaining six batters to draft as starters I need to draft C, MI, 3 OF and UT and make up 49% in Runs, 47% in HR, 46% in RBI and 60% in SB all while trying to get back positive in AVG. I will have to target players with an average HR score of 8.1% to achieve 100%. It’s not impossible to do this, but it limits some of the players you can select during the rest of the draft.

For example, a quick look at the remaining catchers and I see that there is not a single player with a HR% score greater than 6%. So, when I select my catcher, I have to make up for the shortcoming at another position.

With my remaining four pitchers to draft as starters I will focus on three starting pitchers and one reliever to make up 67% of Wins, 24% of Saves and 57% of K. This will be nearly impossible to do in the draft and speaks more to the nature of pitching in fantasy baseball. You will fill in the gaps with players from the waiver wire, a story for another day.

I hope that this example was helpful to you, and I hope you are getting the idea of how to use Target Percentages – they’ll keep you on target during your draft!