DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4 + Pick Up Matthew Boyd

By Leave a Comment

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd

Detroit Tigers Matthew Boyd says, “yeah baby, made the first edition of Straight Cheese in 2019.”*

* Not an actual quote from Matthew Boyd

Welcome back to another year of Straight Cheese! This is my weekly column where I suggest starting pitchers that have a matchup in their favor for the upcoming week. For the most part, I try and suggest players with low ownership. This week we are looking at streaming starting pitchers week 4.

Identifying Weak Hitting Lineups

I like to look at wOBA, ISO and K% to identify weak lineups and conversely, for pitchers I look at wOBA, ISO against and their K%.

With it being so early in the season not enough data has accumulated to look exclusively at 2019 stats. A solution is to look back at 2018 and these first few weeks of 2019 to get an idea of teams to pick on. Here are the bottom third teams in each stat from 2018 along with their current 2019 numbers.

All statistics, ownership and projected starting dates are as of Thursday morning, April 11.

wOBA 2018 2019 ISO 2018 2019 K% 2018 2019
Marlins 0.289 (30th) 0.277 (24th) Marlins 0.119 (30th) 0.132 (25th) White Sox 26.3% (30th) 26.1% (25th)
Giants 0.290 (29th) 0.257 (30th) Giants 0.129 (29th) 0.115 (29th) Padres 25.1% (29th) 22.9% (16th)
Padres 0.294 (28th) 0.309 (18th) Tigers 0.138 (28th) 0.112 (30th) Phillies 24.8% (28th) 21.5% (10th)
Tigers 0.295 (27th) 0.268 (27th) Padres 0.145 (27th) 0.178 (13th) Rangers 24.1% (27th) 27.6% (28th)
Orioles 0.299 (26th) 0.295 (22nd) Royals 0.146 (26th) 0.156 (18th) Giants 24.0% (26th) 25.0% (20th)
Royals 0.303 (25th) 0.296 (21st) Reds 0.148 (25th) 0.177 (15th) Diamondbacks 23.7% (25th) 21.9% (11th)
White Sox 0.304 (24th) 0.304 (19th) Rays 0.148 (24th) 0.146 (20th) Brewers 23.5% (24th) 22.8% (15th)
Mets 0.305 (23rd) 0.345 (10th) Orioles 0.152 (23rd) 0.146 (21st) Orioles 23.4% (23rd) 22.6% (14th)
Diamondbacks 0.306 (22nd) 0.352 (6th) Cubs 0.152 (22nd) 0.190 (10th) Blue Jays 22.8% (22nd) 28.0% (29th)
Phillies 0.307 (21st) 0.341 (12th) Pirates 0.154 (21st) 0.135 (24th) Marlins 22.8% (21st) 24.7% (19th)

Here are the teams still in bottom third in all three stats: San Francisco Giants. The Miami Marlins are really close. So, I’m going to start with these two teams to pick on by identifying starting pitchers facing the Giants and Marlins next week. Next week’s schedules:

  • Giants: Washington Nationals (away) and Pittsburgh Pirates (away)
  • Marlins: Chicago Cubs (home) and Washington Nationals (home)

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 4

RHP Anibal Sanchez, WAS
Owned Y20%/E12% · at Miami Marlins – Friday, April 19th

Marlins are posting a 0.284 wOBA (21st), 0.116 ISO (27th) and 31.8 K% (29th) at home versus RHP so far in 2019. Now that is only 49 plate appearances, but rest assured they were just as bad last season when facing RHP at home: 0.290 wOBA (30th), 0.106 ISO (30th) and only striking out 21.0% of the time (13th). They are ripe to be taken advantage of.

Sanchez should do just that. His numbers aren’t great after two starts (both against a very dangerous Phillies lineup): 6.52 era, 4.83 xFIP, 1.76 whip, 20.0 K% in 9.2 innings. He’s coming off a brilliant year with Atlanta and matchups don’t get any better then this.

RHP Trevor Williams, PIT
Owned Y46%/E40% · vs. San Francisco Giants – Friday, April 19th

Giants are currently posting a 0.283 wOBA (20th), 0.171 ISO (13th) and 23.7 K% (19th) when facing RHP on the road. Last season, in the same split, they put up a 0.287 wOBA (28th), 0.130 ISO (29th) and 26.3 K% (30th). I don’t need to tell you that their numbers are better this season than last. But… can you trust them? They didn’t really improve their lineup in the off season (and, Kevin Pillar isn’t the answer, either).

Williams is coming off two starts, both against the underperforming Reds. Through 12 innings he’s got a 2.25 era, 3.86 xFIP, 0.92 whip and a 19.6 K%. Those numbers are even better than last season’s 3.11 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP and 18.0 K% in 170.2 innings. Many were predicting Williams to regress back down to earth in 2019. It hasn’t happened yet, and the Giants don’t seem to be the team to pull him back down either.

I still need one more starting pitcher to recommend for you, my loyal readers. I always like to give you three. I’m going to look at teams still in bottom third in two of the three stats: Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles. The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are really close. Next week’s schedules:

  • Tigers: Pittsburgh (home) and White Sox (home)
  • Orioles: Boston Red Sox (away), Tampa Rays (away) and Minnesota Twins (home)
  • Royals: White Sox (away) and New York Yankees (away)
  • White Sox: Royals (home ) and Tigers (away)

RHP Yonny Chirinos, TB
Owned Y62%/E33% · vs. Baltimore Orioles – Wednesday, April 17th

Through 151 plate appearances in 2019, the Orioles are currently putting up 0.294 wOBA (18th), 0.130 ISO (22nd) and striking out 28.5% of the time (23rd) against RHP on the road. Because you want to know, last year in the same split they posted a 0.296 wOBA (24th), 0.154 ISO (21st) and struck out 26.0% of the time (28th). The Orioles are skill-challenged.

Chirinos has come out of the gate strong. Through two starts (Astros at home and Giants on the road) he has a 0.75 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 0.42 WHIP and 29.0K% in 12 innings. Last season in 89.2 innings he put up a 3.5 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.22 WHIP and 20.3 K%. He’s not a strikeout machine but he gets the job done and that should continue against the Orioles.

Extra Cheese

Starting this season I’ll be suggesting a two-start pitcher for the upcoming week. Please bear in mind that things can change after this article is posted. Injuries, rain delays, managerial moves, etc. can happen. The world is an imperfect place; screws fall out all the time.

LHP Matthew Boyd, DET
Owned Y69%/E44% · vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Tue Apr 16) & vs. Chicago White Sox (Sun Apr 21)

While the opponents offer something to take advantage of, this is more about Boyd himself. His ownership has been climbing steadily since the beginning of the season and rightfully so. He’s seems to be truly breaking out in 2019. Through three starts (17.1 innings) he has a 2.60 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP and 40.3 K%. Last season he put up a 4.39 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP and 22.4 K%. He’s worth owning in all formats at this point.

Next week he faces the Pirates who did alright facing southpaws in 2018: 0.315 wOBA (15th), 0.163 ISO (11th) and 21.2 K% (7th). So far in 2019 they aren’t faring as well: 0.269 wOBA (27th), 0.024 ISO (30th) and 22.4 K% (14th).

Next weekend he gets the White Sox who were in the bottom third of the league versus LHP: 0.306 wOBA (20th), 0.143 ISO (20th) and 27.8 K% (30th). They aren’t doing much better so far in 2019: 0.294 wOBA (22nd), 0.128 ISO (19th) and 26.9 K% (24th).

If Boyd is on your waiver wire then pick him up now and thank me later.

Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell Advice – Mike Clevinger, Chris Archer

By 2 Comments

Mike Clevinger, Indians

Giles returns with some fantasy baseball buy sell advice, mostly on the sell side this week including SP Mike Clevinger of the Indians. Come on Giles, how can you trade that flow?

SP Mike Clevinger, CLE

Mike Clevinger had a bad night Friday against Toronto Blue Jays. He gave up 4 runs in four innings. Well, really, he gave up four runs in the fourth inning. Apart from that one bad inning Clevinger has looked good but not great this season.

Clevinger has a 2.70 ERA through three games, so those bold predictions look like they might be spot on. Unfortunately his underlying numbers are a bit concerning. His WHIP is an elevated 1.38 and his K-rate is down to 20 per cent.

Clevinger isn’t known for pounding the strike zone, so he likely will have an elevated walk rate. Still, opponents contact rate is up from 70 percent last year to 78 percent this year.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I am still optimistic about Clevinger, but I can’t deny his value may never be higher. If you can get a Top 100 player in return take it and sell.

SP Chris Archer, TB

Chris Archer has never been my favorite pitcher. The greatest value Archer is giving you is his K-rate and his 200 plus innings. That is rare in today’s game. But, 200 innings of an ERA over 4.00 will hurt your team more than it helps. I think Archer’s biggest problem is that he plays for Tampa Bay. His BABIP is .379 and strand rate is just shy of 56 percent, both the worst of his career.

Don’t get me wrong, Archer is hurting himself plenty and doesn’t seem to be able to get left handed batters out any more. His strike out rate is slightly lower than in previous years and his walk rate is slightly higher. Archer’s season, though, looks like it is going to depend on the defense behind him.

Archer is in a difficult position. He won’t have a lot of trade value unless he improves his numbers, but he can’t improve his numbers on a team with a four man rotation and dismal defense.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold him for now because you won’t get back anywhere closer to what you paid for him, but if a reasonable offer comes in then strongly consider it.

OF Bradley Zimmer, CLE

Bradley Zimmer was a hot choice heading into the season. He was projected as a 15 homer, 30 steal guy. His size and speed were unique in baseball and he has been able to hit to all fields meaning he can be tough to defend. The fact that he was going outside the Top 200 players in drafts meant he was pretty cheap.

Zimmer has never been able to make consistent contact. He does make hard contact 37 percent of the time, so there is hope his home run rate may pick up. But he is striking out 38 percent of the time and walking less than 5 percent.

Fantasy Advice – Drop
He doesn’t have the discipline to help your team. Feel free to drop him.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE

Jose Ramirez was a player I had high hopes for entering the year, but he seems to have sold out to the fly ball revolution. Sure he has three home runs and two steals through 14 games which suggests he is on pace to improve on last years numbers. But his fly ball rate has increased from 39.7 percent last year to 52.2 percent this year.

I believe this is the cause of his low average. Nothing else seems to have changed. His K-rate is down and his walk rate is up, and that usually bodes well for a batter. But fly balls tend to lead to outs rather than hits. Maybe Ramirez normalizes, but I think he has changed his swing in an attempt to hit for more power.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would love to say Ramirez is a buy low candidate, but until we see his line drive rate increase and his fly ball rate decrease I don’t want much to do with him.

OF Nick Castellanos, DET

Nick Castellanos has been playing baseball in football weather and that has hurt him early. Most people drafted Castellanos because they thought he was a lock to hit 30 home runs this year. Through the early going he hasn’t hit a single ball out of the park. I think this is easily explained by the weather.

His underlying numbers look great. His walk rate is up slightly and his strike out rate is down. His hard hit rate is up to 53.7 percent and he is hitting to all fields. This has lead to a .302 batting average early in the season.

Everything looks great, except for his home runs. I believe this is simply due to the Detroit Tigers playing in some miserable weather so far. They have 6 postponed games so far and played some that should have been rescheduled.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
The Tigers won’t play a game south of the Mason Dixon Line until they travel to Tampa Bay for a series starting April 30, so hope Spring finally comes to the AL Central. I would buy Castellanos everywhere while his price is a bit depressed because he is eventually going to start hitting home runs that will warm your heart.