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Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 16, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Minnesota Vikings running back Toby Gerhart (32) runs with the ball. The Minnesota Vikings defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars by a score of 26 to 23 in overtime at Mall of America Field, Minneapolis, MN. September 9, 2012; Photographer: Brian Cassella/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire

Here is Toby Gerhart back in 2012 facing his new team. We had to dig into the archives to find a pic of Gerhart running the ball he’s had so few carries, yet the Jaguars felt compelled to sign him to a three-year, $10.5-million contract. We’re skeptical to say the least. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB C. Henne
7 · 31st
155-260-1,650 10 TD 7 INT
19-70 0 TD
–
129.5
QB B. Bortles
NR
160-290-1,750 6 TD 8 INT
35-95 0 TD
–
121.0
RB T. Gerhart
5 · 27th –
200-800 5 TD
40-250 1 TD
141.0
RB J. Todman
NR –
95-375 2 TD
25-200 1 TD
75.5
RB D. Robinson
NR –
10-55 0 TD
10-100 0 TD
15.5
RB S. Johnson
NR –
22-100 0 TD
0-00 0 TD
10.0
WR C. Shorts
5 · 29th – –
70-880 5 TD
118.0
WR J. Blackmon
NR – – –
0.0
WR A. Sanders
NR – –
35-400 1 TD
46.0
WR M. Lee
NR – –
35-400 2 TD
52.0
WR A. Robinson
NR – –
15-175 1 TD
23.5
WR M. Brown
NR – –
10-100 0 TD
10.0
TE M. Lewis
4 · 21st – –
50-550 5 TD
85.0
TE C. Harbor
NR – –
20-225 1 TD
28.5

Data as of July 11 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Chad Henne

The Jaguars indicated Henne will enter training camp as their starting quarterback and will likely open the season in the starting line up. We fully expect rookie 1st round pick Blake Bortles will wind up under center early in the season. Henne was decent last season, throwing for 3,241 yards with 13 touchdowns and 14 interceptions in 15 games, most of which involved a depleted receiving corps. If you end up needing an early season fill in, Henne could be worth the call. We don’t expect he will be on many fantasy rosters by midseason.

QB Blake Bortles

With the 3rd overall selection in this year’s NFL Draft, the Jaguars grabbed their quarterback of the future, selecting Blake Bortles from Central Florida. A strong armed, 6’5”, 232 pound passer, Bortles showed an ability to run the ball a little in college as well as avoid oncoming rushers. He will begin the season on the bench learning behind Chad Henne. However, with the Jaguars not exactly looking like title contenders in 2014, we expect Bortles will take over under center sooner rather than later. But it will be later rather than sooner before he becomes a solid fantasy option. Grab him as a mid-tier selection in rookie only drafts but let him languish on the waiver wire in redraft formats.

RB Toby Gerhart

In one of the more curious moves of the offseason, the Jaguars signed former Minnesota Vikings backup Toby Gerhart to a three-year, $10.5-million contract. Given his salary, Gerhart will assume the lead role in Jacksonville but there are plenty of reasons to question this signing. One, why would the Jaguars offer Gerhart a more lucrative deal than the one Ben Tate signed with Cleveland? Two, what evidence exists that suggests Gerhart can be successful as a lead back? Sure, Gerhart averaged a ridiculous 7.9 yards per carry last season but it was on the small sample size of 36 carries. And it is worth noting that his career yards per carry average of 4.7 and yards per reception average of 7.8 were inflated by playing against plenty of soft defenses on third and long. This has disaster written all over it for the Jags. Don’t expect Gerhart to be anything more than a mid-tier RB3 in 2014.

RB Denard Robinson

Reports out of minicamp indicate Robinson is having a solid offseason and the Jaguars have big plans for him for the coming season. Tell us if you’ve heard that before. While a lingering hand injury limited him in his rookie season, Robinson was ineffective running the ball, gaining just 66 yards on 20 carries. At 5’11 and a pumped up 210 pounds, Robinson has solid size but is probably best suited for a change of pace and receiving role. However, Jordan Todman will likely enter training camp as the leading option to earn that job. If Robinson provides some razzle dazzle in the preseason, he could be worth a late round flier given that we aren’t sold on Toby Gerhart’s prospects to develop into a workhorse back.

RB Jordan Todman

After bouncing around the league for a couple of seasons, Todman carved out a decent role for himself with the Jaguars in 2013, gaining 256 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 75 carries and catching 14 passes for 116 yards and another score. Todman returns to Jacksonville for another season and he will enter training camp as the lead backup to free agent signee Toby Gerhart. While that sounds promising given that Gerhart did little to distinguish himself during his four year stay in Minnesota, the new Jaguars brass brought him in and will almost certainly afford him every opportunity to succeed. That being said, we’re not sold on Gerhart but we’re also not sold on Todman, Denard Robinson or rookie 6th round pick Storm Johnson for that matter. This depth chart looks ripe for a veteran free agent addition at some point. If that fails to materialize and Todman beats out Robinson and Johnson for the lead backup spot, feel free using a late round flier on him.

WR Cecil Shorts

After a solid coming out party in 2012 when Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns, he crash landed last season as injuries, the loss of Justin Blackmon and subpar play at the quarterback position caused his production to plummet. The Jags 2011 4th round pick played through a nagging sports hernia before finally landing on injured reserve in Week 15, finishing the season with 66 receptions for 777 yards and three touchdowns. Blackmon’s loss seemed to put a real damper on Shorts’ ability to generate big plays as his yards per reception dropped from 17.8 to 11.8. However, he did post 411 receiving yards during his first five games before the injuries began taking their toll. In 2014, Shorts figures to be the team’s leading wide receiver despite Jacksonville having used 2nd round picks to acquire Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson. In fact, Shorts has bargain written all over him for 2014. If your fellow fantasy owners place too much emphasis on his injury plagued 2013 season and the acquisition of Lee and Robinson, feel confident scooping him up as a low end WR3 with upside. At just 26 years of age and coming out of tiny Mount Union college, Shorts is still an ascending player.

WR Marqise Lee

After a dynamic 2012 season, Lee chose to return to USC and ended up watching his draft stock plummet with a subpar campaign. The Jaguars happily grabbed him with the 7th pick in the 2nd round of this year’s draft and he could end up being one of the draft’s top bargains. A knee injury apparently caused some teams to take a pass on Lee but he could quickly take over as Jacksonville’s top receiver, a role currently held by Cecil Shorts. While Shorts has been productive, he lacks Lee’s upside as an outside threat. A lingering ankle injury caused Lee to miss time in OTAs but he will be ready for training camp and has a solid chance to start on opening day. Barring a solid preseason, he rates as waiver wire material in standard leagues but is a solid dynasty league prospect.

WR Allen Robinson

With Justin Blackmon suspended indefinitely, the Jaguars used a late 2nd round pick to acquire Robinson. At 6’3” and 220 pounds, Robinson has the size to replace Blackmon as the team’s key target in the red zone and on short, chain moving passes. While a hamstring injury limited him in OTAs, he is expected to be ready for the start of training camp and has an opportunity to emerge as the team’s key threat at wide receiver early in his career. Given his size, Robinson is expected to line up outside opposite fellow rookie Marqise Lee with veteran Cecil Shorts working both out of the slot and outside. Consider Robinson a solid dynasty league prospect but waiver wire material in redraft formats given the Jaguars depth at wide receiver and issues at quarterback.

WR Ace Sanders

Former 4th round picks entering their second year in the league who caught 51 passes as rookies don’t usually have to battle for their roster spots. However, that seems to be the case with Jaguars wide receiver Ace Sanders. The 5’8”, 175 pound South Carolina product totaled just 484 yards on those 51 receptions, averaging a paltry 9.5 yards per reception. With Jacksonville having used 2nd round picks on Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, there is a solid chance that Cecil Shorts could take over as the team’s primary slot receiver. The saving grace for Sanders could be that neither Lee nor Robinson has proven able to stay healthy through OTAs. Regardless, Sanders is only worth owning in PPR formats or deep leagues provided he emerges as the Jaguars main option out of the slot.

WR Justin Blackmon

It looks like it is over and out in Jacksonville for the 5th overall selection in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Jaguars added a pair of wide receivers in the 2nd round of this year’s draft, almost certainly ending Blackmon’s two year stay with the team. Suspended indefinitely for his third violation of the league’s substance abuse policy, Blackmon would need to ask the league to be reinstated but it doesn’t appear that will be happening anytime soon. Since word out of Jacksonville is that he isn’t even communicating with his teammates, we don’t expect that he will be reinstated during the 2014 season.

TE Marcedes Lewis

Owed $13.35-million over the final two years of his contract and coming off an injury marred season in which he appeared in 10 games, catching 25 passes for 359 yards and four touchdowns, Lewis was a candidate to be released in the offseason. However, he received a stay of execution as a closer look reveals that the Jaguars were a respectable 4-6 with him in the line up and 0-6 when he was injured. It also helps that the depth chart is almost completely bare behind him and that he is an exceptional blocker. While we can’t be certain what his role will be in the passing game in 2014, we do know he showed some chops as a receiver over the final five games of the season, catching 16 passes for 242 yards and four touchdowns. Of course, Justin Blackmon missed all of those games due to a suspension and Cecil Shorts wasn’t available for three of them due to injury. Projecting Lewis’ performance in 2014 is difficult but he is probably worth a late round flier in 12-team leagues given the youth the Jaguars will be using at wide receiver this coming season.

Also see: Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Running Backs

May 13, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Washington Husky Tailback Austin Bishop Sankey during a 31-16 victory over the BYU Cougars in the Fight Hunger Bowl at AT&T Park in San Francisco, Ca. December 27, 2013; Photographer: Icon Sports Media

Bishop Sankey is the top RB available in rookie drafts based on talent plus immediate opportunity. Photo: Icon Sports Media

Now that the NFL Draft is behind us, we can start looking forward to a summer of training camps, news and injuries (they are bound to happen, sorry), mock drafts, and tons of research to prepare our player projections and rankings, all in anticipation of the greatest day(s) of the year – our fantasy football draft(s).

Some of the most debated players in fantasy football rankings every year tend to be the rookies. They are risky investments, but there are always a handful that deliver their first year and pay big dividends. For the next few weeks, I will focus on each skill position to identify the rookies that have the highest potential for a breakout freshman year.

Here are my post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Running Backs.

1. Bishop Sankey, TEN

With Chris Johnson’s departure to the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans had a need at RB. They addressed it drafting Bishop Sankey in round two as the first RB off the board. Much like the fantasy football community in general, it appears Tennessee wasn’t sold on Shonn Greene being their #1 RB. Outside of Greene, one threat to Sankey’s workload is Dexter McCluster stealing third downs or passing situations. However, running behind a huge O-line should allow Sankey to succeed as the main ball carrier from day one. Sankey is clearly the top RB available in rookie drafts based on talent plus immediate opportunity.

2. Terrance West, CLE

Drafted in the late third round to backup free agent signee and no stranger to the trainer’s room, Ben Tate, Terrance West could be in line for some major playing time in 2014 and possibly take over the starting role in 2015 as Tate’s contract is only two years. The Browns have shown success running the ball, putting West in the group of desirable handcuffs to own, even in redraft leagues.

3. Jeremy Hill, CIN

Say goodbye BenJarvus Green-Ellis, hello Jeremy Hill! Many NFL Draft experts had Hill as the top back in the draft, so consider it a “steal” for Cincinnati he dropped to the bottom half of round two, and a luxury since they already have talented Giovanni Bernard entering his second season. Hill is a big back who will compliment Bernard very nicely. Hill is definitely capable to take over the top spot if Bernard doesn’t perform or if an injury occurs.

4. Carlos Hyde, SF

Carlos Hyde is a talented player, but drafted into a mess of running backs in San Francisco including Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore. Gore has lasted two years longer than many thought he would and turns 31 this month, so his time is close to running out. The guy to replace him is expected to be Lattimore. Hunter was once considered the heir apparent, but an Achilles injury is a major buzzkill for a RB and he now looks more like a JAG – just a guy. Of course, Lattimore red-shirted last season and there is some uncertainty how his rehab is progressing. Hyde could threaten Lattimore as Gore’s backup. RBBC in 2014 is slightly possible, but my guess is Hyde will have a significant role in 2015 after Gore’s and Hunter’s contracts expire.

5. Charles Sims, TB

Tampa Bay Buccaneers might seem to now have too many backfield options behind Doug Martin after Bobby Rainey and Mike James showed last season they can perform when given the chance. However, Sims should turn out to be the clear choice to take over with any injury to Martin. Matt Waldman had Sims ranked third amongst RB in his pre-draft Rookie Scouting Portfolio, indicating, “[Sims] has potential to become an every-down back sooner than later thanks to his hands and work in pass protection.”

6. Storm Johnson, JAC

Jacksonville Jaguars are an interesting team for Johnson to find a home. He will compete with Jordan Todman to backup Toby Gerhart, signed as a free agent from the Minnesota Vikings. Jacksonville is short on play makers, especially with Justin Blackmon not expected back anytime soon, so Johnson could struggle until Jacksonville develops outside weapons and someone that can threaten opposing defenses. Perhaps QB Blake Bortles is the first big piece in that puzzle. Gerhart is nothing special and has never topped 150 touches in a season. Keep Johnson on your fantasy radar.

7. Devonta Freeman, ATL

Jacquizz Rodgers hasn’t proven himself as much as the Atlanta Falcons would have liked, thus drafting a back like Freeman to transition taking over for an aging Steven Jackson made a ton of sense for the team. Although Steven Jackson missed just two games with the St. Louis Rams from 2009-2012, the wear on the tires started to show and he missed four games last season. If Freeman can answer the bell, then he has a great opportunity to be a relevant fantasy contributor this season.

8. Lache Seastrunk, WAS

Seastrunk will compete with and should surpass Roy Helu to back up Alfred Morris. Seastrunk fell further in the draft than many fantasy experts expected, but he fits with Jay Gruden’s system as a small and quick back who can catch. Morris hasn’t shown much as a receiver in his two seasons, so there is an immediate third down role here.

9. Alfred Blue, HOU

Blue is a big back that could take over for Ben Tate in Houston. With Arian Foster showing significant wear last year after back-to-back-to-back 325+ touch seasons (he struggled through back, hamstring and calf injuries), Blue might see the field more than some are expecting. Former New York Giant Andre Brown was signed as a free agent and has first crack to backup Foster, but Brown missed half a season each of this two years with the G-Men.

10. Ka’Deem Carey, CHI

Considering the depth chart behind Matt Forte was virtually non-existent prior to the NFL Draft, Carey walks into an immediate backup role with the team. Forte signed a four-year deal in 2012, so this year will be key in deciding if the Bears want to sign him to an extension beyond the 2015 season.

More Guys To Monitor:

Tre Mason, STL
St. Louis Rams RB depth chart is Zac Stacy, Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham. Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead are still there, but as smaller, quick running backs, they aren’t built for a heavy workload. Off a productive rookie year, Stacy should open the season as the starter, but with Cunningham struggling to prove himself, Mason should step right in as the handcuff to Stacy.

Andre Williams, NYG
There are not many running backs of quality in New York. The Giants signed Rashad Jennings from the Oakland Raiders in free agency, and he is their go-to RB right now. It came as no surprise they added one in the NFL Draft, and that player was Andre Williams. Williams is a big, physical running back at 6’0″ and 230 pounds. Depending on David Wilson’s uncertain recovery from neck surgery, Williams may have an opportunity to contribute right away.

James White, NE
We all know the running back situation for the New England Patriots is like a non-stop carousel, so maybe, just maybe, James White could bust out and be the man the Pats are looking for. Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are free agents next year, so the time to see if White can perform is now.

Also see: Top 5 Rookie QB | Top 10 Rookie WR | Top 5 Rookie TE | Top 10 Rookie IDP
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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