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Straight Cheese Streaming Starting Pitchers – 2018 Post Mortem

October 4, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Atlanta Braves Anibal Sanchez was one of Chris’ most used pitchers in his weekly streaming starting pitchers analysis – Straight Cheese. Texas Rangers were his most picked on opponent. Here is the 2018 season review.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

But before we dive into the 2018 post mortem, let’s take a look back at my picks from Week 24.

Week 24 Review

Name	Date	GS	IP	ER	H	BB	K	Dec	ERA	WHIP
Eric Lauer SDP	9/14 vs TEX	1	5.00	2	3	1	4	ND	3.60	0.80
Vince Velasquez PHI	9/15 vs MIA	1	2.00	4	4	1	4	ND	18.00	2.50
Robbie Erlin SDP	9/16 vs TEX	1	5.33	1	6	0	6	L	1.69	1.13
Shane Bieber CLE	9/16 vs DET	1	6.00	5	9	0	4	L	7.50	1.50
Total for Week		4	18.33	12	22	2	18	1-2	5.89	1.31

Not a strong finish to the season. In fact, can we just ignore September? It was easily my worst month.

Monthly Totals

Month	GS	IP	K	W-L	ERA	WHIP
April	15	79.00	80	6-4	4.90	1.51
May	16	94.33	86	5-5	3.72	1.09
June	5	31.00	31	3-0	1.74	0.97
July	12	73.34	71	7-3	2.70	1.16
August	14	88.33	86	10-1	1.83	0.88
September	9	34.00	34	0-5	9.00	1.94
TOTAL	71	400.00	388	31-18	3.64	1.20

Still, 400 innings of 3.64 era and 1.20 whip are commendable considering all pitchers were less than 50% owned at the time. Some pitchers that ended 2018 with an era higher than 3.64 and a whip higher than 1.20: Jake Arrieta, German Marquez, Dallas Keuchel, Cole Hamels, Jose Berrios, Julio Teheran and Jose Quintana… to name a few.

Most Frequent Opponent

The team I found myself picking on the most was the Texas Rangers. In fact, I went against them 12 times this year (five more than the next most frequent: Baltimore and San Diego). My line when picking a starting pitcher versus the Rangers: 2.39 era, 1.25 whip, 57 strikeouts and a 6-2 record in 64 innings.

Interestingly enough, here is my line for starting pitchers versus Rangers, Orioles and Padres: 2.85 era, 1.19 whip, 149 strikeouts and a 15-3 record in 148 2/3 innings (26 games). That’s Mike Clevinger with a lower era.

Most Frequent Pitchers Recommended

There were four pitchers that I suggested three times this year:

Anibal Sanchez: 1.53 era, 0.85 whip, 17 strikeouts, 1 win in 17 2/3 innings
Kyle Gibson: 3.66 era, 1.17 whip, 21 strikeouts, 2 wins in 19 2/3 innings
Lance Lynn: 4.91 era, 1.77 whip, 17 strikeouts, 1 win in 14 2/3 innings
Trevor Cahill: 1.84 era, 1.16 whip, 23 strikeouts, 1 win in 14 2/3 innings

All four combined: 2.97 era, 1.21 whip, 78 strikeouts, 5 wins in 66 2/3 innings (12 games). That’s 66 2/3 innings of Noah Syndergaard with a slightly better era and more strikeouts.

My Best Calls

Ross Stripling (5/25 vs SD): 6 2/3 ip, 0 er, 6 h, 0 bb, 10 k, 1 win; 60 FanDuel points, 35.4 DraftKings points
Trevor Cahill (8/5 vs DET): 6 ip, 0 er, 3 h, 1 bb, 10 k, 1 win; 58 FanDuel points, 35.1 DraftKings points
Trevor Cahill (5/5 vs BAL): 6 ip, 0 er, 4 h, 1 bb, 12 k, 0 win; 58 FanDuel points, 34.5 DraftKings points
Daniel Mengden (5/26 vs ARI): 9 ip, 0 er, 2 h, 0 bb, 5 k, 1 win; 52 FanDuel points, 38.05 DraftKings points
Danny Duffy (7/14 @ CHW): 7 ip, 0 er, 4 h, 3 bb, 8 k, 1 win; 55 FanDuel points, 31.55 DraftKings points

My Worst Calls

Brian Johnson (9/2 @ CHW): 1 1/3 ip, 4 er, 7 h, 1 bb, 2 k, 0 win; -2 FanDuel points, -5.8 DraftKings points
Daniel Mengden (4/28 @ HOU): 2 1/3 ip, 4 er, 6 h, 1 bb, 1 k, 0 win; -2 FanDuel points, -4.95 DraftKings points
Zack Wheeler (5/4 vs COL): 6 ip, 8 er, 10 h, 3 bb, 3 k, 0 win; 3 FanDuel points, -4.3 DraftKings points
Trevor Cahill (9/9 vs TEX): 2 2/3 ip, 3 er, 2 h, 6 bb, 1 k, 0 win; 2 FanDuel points, -2.8 DraftKings points
Steven Matz (5/19 vs ARI): 4 ip, 4 er, 6 h, 1 bb, 2 k, 0 win; 6 FanDuel points, 0.8 DraftKings points

I still can’t figure out #4 on the Worst list. Cahill vs Texas should have been a slam dunk.

Well, that closes the book on Straight Cheese for 2018. I hope you enjoyed my work and I look forward to getting back to the grind in 2019!

And remember, my suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Thursday June 21

June 21, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Stack #1

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Stack #2

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Stack #3

** Edited at 1:10pm EDT to remove the Oakland A’s @ Chicago White Sox postponed game **

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Rockies are facing a LHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.55 FanDuel and 1.95 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is Steven Matz NYM and he is currently allowing 100% more ppa in FanDuel and 99% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.096 on FanDuel and 1.599 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.55 x 100% in FanDuel and 1.95 x 99% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.096 through yesterday

Advice	Lineup	Situation	Situational ppa	Pitcher	Pitcher’s Effect	Modified ppa
Stack	COL	LHP at home	2.55	Steven Matz NYM	100%	2.54
Stack	STL	LHP on road	2.43	Brent Suter MIL	104%	2.53
Stack	PIT	RHP at home	2.26	Zack Godley ARI	111%	2.51
Stack	WSN	RHP at home	2.04	Kevin Gausman BAL	110%	2.24
Stack	LAA	RHP at home	2.11	Aaron Sanchez TOR	102%	2.15
—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Avoid	MIL	RHP at home	2.24	Carlos Martinez STL	78%	1.74
Avoid	SEA	RHP on road	2.14	Luis Severino NYY	66%	1.41
Avoid	BAL	RHP on road	1.83	Max Scherzer WSN	71%	1.30

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.599 through yesterday

Advice	Lineup	Situation	Situational ppa	Pitcher	Pitcher’s Effect	Modified ppa
Stack	COL	LHP at home	1.95	Steven Matz NYM	99%	1.92
Stack	STL	LHP on road	1.81	Brent Suter MIL	106%	1.92
Stack	PIT	RHP at home	1.72	Zack Godley ARI	110%	1.88
Stack	WSN	RHP at home	1.55	Kevin Gausman BAL	112%	1.73
Stack	LAA	RHP at home	1.61	Aaron Sanchez TOR	100%	1.62
—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Avoid	MIL	RHP at home	1.70	Carlos Martinez STL	77%	1.31
Avoid	SEA	RHP on road	1.63	Luis Severino NYY	68%	1.10
Avoid	BAL	RHP on road	1.40	Max Scherzer WSN	72%	1.01

Straight Cheese Streaming Pitchers Week 7 – Matz, Kingham, Foltynewicz

May 16, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Chris is picking on the Arizona Diamonbacks again this week, including New York Mets Steven Matz at home Friday against the A.J. Pollock-less D-backs in his streaming pitchers week 7 picks.

Straight Cheese, the weekly streaming pitchers resource identifying less than desirable, questionably talented, low-owned starting pitchers that you can use for a spot start for your fantasy baseball team.

First, lets take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 6 Review

Name	Date	GS	IP	ER	H	BB	K	Dec	ERA	WHIP
Junior Guerra	5/9 vs. CLE	1	5.00	4	6	2	9	L	7.20	1.60
Tanner Roark	5/10 at ARI	1	7.00	1	4	0	4	-	1.29	0.57
Francisco Liriano	5/9 at TEX	1	4.00	3	4	4	3	-	6.75	2.00
Jeremy Hellickson	5/13 at ARI	1	5.00	1	3	1	5	-	1.80	0.80
Week 6 Total		4	21.00	9	17	7	21	0-1	3.86	1.14
Running Total		19	123.00	68	128	48	124	6-8	4.98	1.43

Now, that is more like it. The Nats really came through for me last week.

With that out of the way, let’s dance with the devil in the pale moonlight!

Pitcher Streaming Week 7

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Tuesday. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Monday, May 14th.

LHP Steven Matz, NYM
Owned Y17%/E10% · vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Friday, May 18th

Remember last week when I picked on the Diamondbacks? Well, that was when they were home. This week they are on the road but there is still an opportunity to take advantage. Their currently posting a .288 wOBA (22nd), 30.1 K% (30th) and .204 ISO (6th) against LHP on the road. Yeah, the ISO is worrisome but it appears that lefty abuser A.J. Pollock will be out of the lineup for a while. He’ll be taking with him his 11 homeruns and .327 ISO (5 homeruns and .444 ISO vs. LHP) so far in 2018.

Matz comes into the matchup with a 3.86 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. That all looks fine on the surface but he’s destined to crash at some point this season. His .238 BABIP, 22.6% HR/FB and 4.28 x FIP all point to doom. The thing is, the Diamondbacks are slumping and lost arguably their best player. Take advantage and trot Matz out there this weekend.

RHP Nick Kingham, PIT
Owned Y25%/E20% · vs. San Diego Padres – Saturday, May 19th

According to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review Kingham is slated to start this Saturday. With only two major league starts on his resume, Kingham’s line looks like this: 2.92 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and 16 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. One start was a thing of beauty (1 hit, shutout ball over 7 innings); the other was not (6 hits and 4 earned runs over 5 1/3 innings). What was consistent over the two starts were strikeouts with 9 in the shutout and 7 in the, um, non-shutout.

He draws a favorable matchup this weekend when the Padres come into Pittsburgh. San Diego has a .292 wOBA (26th), 28.2 K% (29th) and .114 ISO (29th) vs. RHP on the road. Kingham’s K% is 35.6% and he is currently holding opposing teams to a .221 wOBA. I know I’ve told you to be cautious with the unproven guys in previous columns but this matchup is too good to pass up.

RHP Trevor Williams, PIT
Owned Y51%/E52% · vs. San Diego Padres – Sunday, May 20th

Everything I said about the Padres vs. Kingham applies in this matchup with Williams. The difference, and it is a big one, is that Williams doesn’t strike out as many batters as Kingham. Williams comes into the matchup with a 2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 35 strikeouts in 53 innings. His K% is at 16.6% while holding batters to a .282 wOBA.

A weak hitting team against a decent pitcher doesn’t put too much confidence in me. The extra nugget of info that does put more confidence in me is that Williams pitches better at home. In fact, he hasn’t allowed a homerun at home yet in 2018. His home ERA is 2.22 compared to 3.14 on the road. He’s walked over twice as many batters on the road (14) as opposed to home (6). This is a sneaky good matchup.

RHP Mike Foltynewicz, ATL
Owned Y51%/E49% · vs. Miami Marlins – Sunday, May 20th

NOTE: due to the rainout of Thursday’s game, Folty will miss this matchup on Sunday. Instead, Julio Teheran takes the mound. He’s owned in 77% of ESPN leagues, but if he is available it is a good matchup for him, also

Folty is coming off a very impressive outing against the Cubs on Tuesday night where he struck out 10 over 5 innings and didn’t allow an earned run. What is even more impressive is that outside of one awful start on May 4th vs. the Giants he hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a game. The knock against Foltynewicz is that he isn’t going deep into games due to high pitch count. He’s made it to the 6th inning only twice.

Simply put, he’s walking too many batters (4.60 BB/9 and 11.8 BB%). That being said, his numbers still look good after Tuesday’s start: 2.87 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 47 innings. He’s also striking batters out at a 27.9% rate and holding them to a .299 wOBA.

Enter the Marlins and their .247 wOBA (30th), 27.4 K% (27th), .104 ISO (30th) and 6.0 BB% (29th) vs. RHP on the road. Not to sound like a broken record but the Marlins on the road are a team to pick on if the pitcher has an ounce of talent. Folty has more than an ounce so feel confident streaming him Sunday!