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Atlanta Falcons Team Report

July 14, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

If solid yet unspectacular is what you are after then Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan should be your fantasy quarterback.

If solid yet unspectacular is what you are after then Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan should be your fantasy quarterback.

QB Matt Ryan

If solid yet unspectacular is what you are after then Matt Ryan should be your fantasy quarterback. Since emerging as a viable QB1 in 2010, Ryan has finished as the 9th, 8th, 5th, 9th and 7th ranked fantasy option at his position over the last five years. During those years, he has thrown for between 26 and 32 touchdowns. Over the last four years, he has thrown for between 4,177 and 4,694 yards, and his points per game spans 21.6 and 24.0. And he hasn’t missed a game in five years. In 2015, Ryan loses slot receiver Harry Douglas after losing Tony Gonzalez following the 2013 season. Those losses together with a shaky offensive line and a diminishing Roddy White make it impossible to predict a breakout year for Ryan in 2015. While the presence of new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan should bring more play action opportunities and the lack of a true short yardage thumper should increase Ryan’s attempts in the red zone, we still view him as a lower tier QB1.

RB Tevin Coleman

One of the more polarizing players taken in this year’s NFL Draft, Coleman joins a group of Falcons running backs that have done little to establish themselves in the pros. That spells opportunity for the 4th round pick out of Indiana. Possessing outstanding speed having run a 4.39-40, Coleman generated plenty of big plays in college but lasted until the 4th round due to his lack of instincts as a runner as well as poor agility. Draft pundits felt that he didn’t make enough tacklers miss in college and questioned his ability to consistently generate big plays as a professional. In Atlanta, he will only need to unseat disappointing 2014 4th round pick Devonta Freeman in order to win a spot in the starting lineup. We expect that to happen early. What we don’t expect is for the 6’1″, 210 pound Coleman to emerge as a workhorse type back. Look for him to see between 12-15 touches per game which should allow Coleman to emerge as a mid-tier RB3 albeit one with upside.

RB Devonta Freeman

Considered a mid-tier dynasty prospect after being taken in the 4th round of the 2014 NFL Draft, Freeman’s stock took a tumble after his less than impressive rookie season and the team’s selection of Tevin Coleman in the 4th round of this year’s draft. Even with Steven Jackson struggling, Freeman was unable to take hold of the running back job. Lacking size at 5’8″ and 206 pounds as well as top end speed (40 time of 4.58), Freeman struggled to a 3.8 YPC average on 65 carries while adding 30 receptions for 225 yards and a touchdown as a receiver despite struggling in pass protection. Although the Falcons listed him as the starter throughout OTA’s, we expect that Coleman’s potential will allow him to unseat Freeman either by opening day or early in the season. The truth is that this will likely evolve into a platoon type situation but we expect Freeman to be the lesser half of that option. He rates as an upper tier RB4 unless he wins the starter’s position in the preseason.

RB Antone Smith

Over the last two seasons Smith has displayed game breaking ability but the sample size has always been too small to consider him a truly viable option for fantasy. And we don’t expect that to change in 2015. With 28 carries for 289 yards and five touchdowns to go along with 15 receptions for 232 yards and three scores, Smith has averaged a touchdown every 6.1 touches, which is completely unsustainable. With a pair of young running backs in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman ahead of the 29 year old Smith (30 in September), Smith’s road to playing time is blocked barring injury.

WR Julio Jones

Despite being one of the league’s most explosive playmakers, Jones has yet to put together a truly outstanding fantasy season. In 2012, he scored an impressive 10 touchdowns but managed just 1,198 yards. In 2014, he posted 1,593 receiving yards (3rd most in the league) but found the end zone just six times. Heading into 2015, Jones will once again be the key cog in the Falcons passing attack that figures to take plenty of deep shots with new offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s reliance on play action and rollouts. And with a lack of receiving talent at tight and on the wide receiver depth chart, Jones should approach or surpass his career high target count of 163 from last season. Did we mention that Shanahan has a history of heavy usage of his main receiving option (hello, Pierre Garcon with 184 targets in 2013)? Jones is almost a sure bet to finish 2015 as a top five fantasy wide receiver although his foot issues add some risk to that equation.

WR Roddy White

At first glance, White’s 2014 production leads you to believe that he is just another aging receiver on the decline. However, a closer look reveals that White was quite efficient, catching 64.5% of his targets (80 of 121) while scoring a touchdown every other game (seven in 14 games) and averaging 9.6 PPG which ranked 20th amongst the league’s wide receivers. Heading into 2015, there don’t seem to be any negative issues that would cause one to predict a decline in his production other than age. Slot receiver Harry Douglas left for Tennessee and will presumably be replaced by rookie 4th round pick Justin Hardy, who quite likely isn’t ready for prime time. The tight end situation is a complete mess. The running game lacks a thumper who can excel in short yardage meaning White should be in line for a solid amount of red zone looks. Currently being drafted as a high end WR4, we expect White to return low end WR2 production.

WR Devin Hester

Signed by Atlanta in the 2014 offseason, the expectation was that Hester would returns kicks and play a big part in the Falcons offense. However, with injuries causing Julio Jones, Roddy White and Harry Douglas to all miss at least some time, Hester put together his finest season as a receiver since 2009, catching 38 passes for 504 yards and a pair of touchdowns, plus he found the end zone once as a rusher. With slot receiver Douglas having signed with the Titans in the offseason, some might jump to the conclusion that Hester has a chance to emerge as a weapon playing out of the slot, particularly given the Falcons issues at tight end. Don’t expect that to happen. Hester is best suited to line up outside and his value to the Falcons lies in his ability as an occasional deep threat or subbing in for Jones or White. If those two miss time, Hester shapes up as a potential replacement option in deeper leagues.

WR Leonard Hankerson

After four years of teasing the Redskins with his potential, Hankerson brings his talents to the Falcons in 2015. The former 3rd round pick will battle Devin Hester and rookie 4th round pick Justin Hardy for the crumbs left behind by Julio Jones and Roddy White. While he has a chance to win that job given his familiarity with new Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s offense from their time together in Washington, Hankerson still shapes up as waiver wire material. In deeper dynasty leagues, he is mildly intriguing given his talent and the lack of young talent the Falcons possess at wide receiver and Roddy White’s advancing age.

WR Justin Hardy

With Harry Douglas having signed with Tennessee in the offseason, the Falcons used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Justin Hardy. The East Carolina product figures to work out of the slot as a pro due to his outstanding agility (the best 3 cone drill speed at the combine) but lacks top end speed, having run 4.56 in the 40. While offseason reports indicate that Hardy played well in OTA’s, he isn’t worthy of a roster spot in redraft formats. He rates as a lower tier dynasty option who is more intriguing in PPR formats.

TE Jacob Tamme and TE Levine Toilolo

After watching 2013 4th pick Levine Toilolo completely bomb in his attempt to replace the legendary Tony Gonzalez, the expectation is the Falcons will likely split the playing time at the position with Tamme rotating in to handle more of the receiving work. Toilolo caught 31 passes for just 238 yards (average YPC of 7.7) with a pair of touchdowns with a game high of just 34 receiving yards, failing to top 20 receiving yards in 11 games. Can you say zero impact? Look for him to be relegated to more of a blocking role in 2015. Tamme comes over from the Denver Broncos where he was relegated to a bit role over the last two seasons due to the emergence of Julius Thomas. However, he totaled 52 receptions for 555 yards in 2012 and at 30 years of age, should have something left to offer. However, he won’t have much to offer your fantasy team. This is a situation that should be avoided by all fantasy owners.

Also see: Atlanta Falcons IDP Team Report · New Orleans Saints Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

DFS Fantasy Football Recommendations – Week 16: Target Players On Playoff Bound Packers, Lions, Cowboys

December 18, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Green Bay, WI, USA - Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes to a receiver during the first quarter on Sunday, Oct. 19, 2014, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin; Photographer: Charlotte Observer/Zumapress/Icon Sportswire

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had a rough go of it last week against the Buffalo Bills. Tony is expecting a big bounce back week this week at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo: Icon Sportswire

[Editor’s Note: Big shout out to our own Tony Fashoda who qualified and is competing this week to be crowned the Overall Champion amongst 10 finalists in the prestigious, highly competitive, ultra-cool 2014 Scott Fish Bowl Invitational (Twitter: #2014SFB). This competition includes 240 players! Check the playoffs page to see Tony listed (and how he does after Week 16), and here is his draft recap from July. You can quickly see why he’s amongst the top teams drafting Peyton-Le’Veon Bell-Cobb 1-2-3, but also drafting Odell Beckham, Jr. in the 14th round. Good luck Tony! We are definitely pulling for you all the way this week!]

If you were so lucky to make it into your league’s fantasy championship, then congratulations, and good luck this week! For those of you that lost but are still looking for that fantasy football rush, look no further than Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS). Most people play at FanDuel and DraftKings.

Week 16 in the NFL will be very competitive as majority of the teams are still playing for something (secure a playoff spot, home field advantage). Some teams out of the playoffs may be motivated to improve their draft position in the NFL Draft, but coaches and current players are typically more interested in their own job security. Lets not get too cute this week. Stick to playoff-bound teams and start the studs!

Quarterbacks

Elite, Expensive: Aaron Rodgers, GB (Week 16 @ Tampa Bay)
Rodgers had one of his worst professional games in Week 15 against the tough Buffalo Bills defense. He did not throw a touchdown and had two interceptions. Week 16 is a must win for Green Bay to stay in the playoff hunt. This is exactly what Green Bay needs, an easy matchup for a morale-boosting dominating win. I expect Rodgers and Green Bay to roll big time.

Middle of the Road: Matthew Stafford, DET (Week 16 vs Chicago)
We know Detroit is a different team on the road and at home, however, when it comes to division games, they always show up to play. In Week 15, Detroit was kept quiet by the Minnesota defense. In Week 16, Detroit takes a short trip down to Chicago for a division matchup. Chicago is horrendous. Detroit and Stafford will thoroughly enjoy embarrassing their rival. Stafford easily tops 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Cheap, High Upside: Andy Dalton, CIN (Week 16 vs Denver)
Cincinnati is sitting atop the AFC North right now, but Pittsburgh is breathing down their necks as the competition for division champ is winding down. Cincinnati gets the “pleasure” of welcoming Denver on Monday Night Football next week. If Cincinnati wants to keep up with Manning and the Broncos, Dalton will need to play some of his best football. He has a chance to produce some great value at his current price. He is worth the risk.

Running Backs

Elite, Expensive: Eddie Lacy, GB (Week 16 @ Tampa Bay)
Lacy is the sixth best running back in the league, which is an amazing feat after the way he performed the first four weeks of the season. Tampa Bay ranks among the worst 10 run defenses. Lacy should continue to thrive as Green Bay rolls in this game.

Middle of the Road: Mark Ingram, NO (Week 16 vs Atlanta)
Ingram should get plenty of work in this division showdown. Atlanta has the worst run defense in the league, so Ingram should have a great day. In Week 1 against the Falcons, Ingram finished with 60 yards and two touchdowns. I expect a repeat performance this week as this will be a high-scoring game once again.

Cheap, High Upside: Steven Jackson, ATL (Week 16 @ New Orleans)
Over the last seven weeks, Jackson has had either a touchdown or over 100 yards rushing in five of seven weeks. New Orleans running defense is not very good as they rank in the bottom 10. Jackson should get plenty of opportunities in this game as Atlanta will want to keep the ball out of Drew Brees‘ hands.

Wide Receivers

Elite, Expensive: Calvin Johnson, DET (Week 16 @ Chicago)
Johnson had a tough matchup in Week 15 against a vastly underrated Minnesota defense. I expect him to break out for a big game in Week 16 as Detroit is still in contention for the division title. Stack Stafford and Johnson; they should have monster days against a BAD Chicago defense.

Middle of the Road: Jordy Nelson, GB / Randall Cobb, GB (Week 16 @ Tampa Bay)
See Aaron Rodgers; Green Bay wins BIG!

Cheap, High Upside: Cole Beasley, DAL (Week 16 vs Indianapolis)
With the news of DeMarco Murray possibly not playing on Sunday due to surgery on a broken bone in his left hand, Joesph Randle and Lance Dunbar will need to fill in for Murray. They, by no means, are on the same level as Murray. Tony Romo will need to throw more to keep pace with Indianapolis and Andrew Luck. Expect Indianapolis to double-cover Dez Bryant following his three-touchdown performance in Week 15. That means Beasley, who has emerged as the true number two wide receiver for Dallas, should find plenty of open room to roam and earn targets from Romo. Beasley provides great value this week.

Tight Ends

Elite, Expensive: Rob Gronkowski, NE (Week 16 @ New York Jets)
I tried to get cute last week and go with another tight end (Jimmy Graham) instead of Gronkowski. My bad. This week, I am going back to the best tight end in the game. He seems to produce no matter what the matchup is. Plug him in and watch him tear up the Pats’ division rival.

Middle of the Road: Coby Fleener, IND (Week 16 @ Dallas)
Dallas has a weakness at defending the tight end position. Dwayne Allen had a good game in Week 15, but Fleener received more of the targets from Andrew Luck. Fleener (and Allen) should have an easy day getting open against Dallas.

Cheap, High Upside: Jason Witten, DAL (Week 16 vs Indianapolis)
See Cole Beasley. Expect Romo to look for Witten A LOT as his safety valve.

Defenses

Seattle Seahawks (Week 16 @ Atlanta)
Seattle is the best defense over the last 3 weeks. They are playing at a high level. They now go to Arizona, who is on their third-string quarterback. Seattle will shut down Arizona as they push for the top seed in the NFC.

Detroit Lions (Week 16 @ Chicago)
Chicago is an embarrassment. Detroit has a good defense. Detroit is still competing for the division. Detroit always plays Chicago tough. This has blowout written all over it.

Baltimore Ravens (Week 16 @ Houston)
Houston is down to their third-string quarterback. Whether it is Thad Lewis or Case Keenum starting, Baltimore should have a field day. Also, Baltimore hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for over 100 yards in 24 consecutive games, so if Houston’s plan is to lean on Arian Foster, they might struggle all day.

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football

Moving Up, Moving Down: Week 14 – Johnny Football Time?

December 2, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel (2) drops back in the pocket for a pass attempt at the Chick-fil-A Bowl at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia. December 31, 2013; Photographer: Charles Mitchell/Icon SMI

Johnny Manziel just might get the start for the Cleveland Browns this week in place of ineffective Brian Hoyer. Photo: Charles Mitchell/Icon SMI

QUARTERBACKS

MOVING UP

Johnny Manziel, Browns
The smart money is on Manziel taking over as the Cleveland Browns starter this week against the Indianapolis Colts. He replaced an ineffective Brian Hoyer in a big game this week against the Buffalo Bills, finishing 5 of 8 for 63 yards and adding 13 yards and a touchdown on the ground. With just one touchdown in his last four games and six interceptions in his last three, Hoyer’s days as the Browns starter appear to be over.

Colt McCoy, Redskins
McCoy has thrown for 691 yards with three touchdown passes and a single pick in his two starts this season, averaging 27.2 PPG in those games. There aren’t any indications the Washington Redskins plan to go back to RGIII and the next four weeks feature opposing passing defenses each ranked 19th or lower.

MOVING DOWN

Geno Smith, Jets
I know that nobody in their right mind would start him but I had to have him here to point out that he threw only eight passes in the first 58 minutes of this week’s Monday night game. Wow. That’s unheard of.

RUNNING BACKS

MOVING UP

Tre Mason, Rams
Yes, it was the Oakland Raiders. Yes, a huge chunk of his yardage came on a 89 yard touchdown run and a 35 yard touchdown reception. However, Mason is very clearly capable of delivering explosive plays on a regular basis and he is getting plenty of opportunity, averaging 20.4 touches per game over the St. Louis Rams’ last five games. While we can’t expect 164 total yard, three touchdown performances every week from him, he certainly has the look of a solid RB2 the rest of the way.

Steven Jackson, Falcons
Sjax seems to have found some late season mojo in his 31 year old legs, reaching double digit fantasy points in four of his last five games. This week, he needed just 18 carries to top 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 12 of the 2012 season. With upcoming opposition running defenses ranked 29th, 10th, 23rd and 19th and averaging 18 touches per game over his last five games, Sjax seems primed to finish the season strong.

Marion Grice, Cardinals
With Andre Ellington‘s status in doubt for this week’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, Grice may get an opportunity to start. However, he would likely share the load with recently signed Michael Bush and Stepfan Taylor so this one is a lukewarm MU.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Another lukewarm endorsement goes out to Stewart. He ran well this week with 85 yards on 12 carries while also hauling in a pair of receptions for 25 yards. He should be in line for a workhorse role with DeAngelo Williams out with a broken hand. However, even though the Panthers face some baby bum soft run defenses in the coming weeks, you can be sure that Stewart won’t take advantage of this golden opportunity. Why? Because he never does.

MOVING DOWN

Jonas Gray, Patriots
LeGarrette Blount had 10 carries this week and even Brandon Bolden had three (and a score). Gray had one carry so you can stick a fork in him. He’s done.

Jeremy Hill, Bengals
After a string of solid performances, Hill managed just 52 yards on 17 touches this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and followed up that performance by questioning the team’s game plan. Head coach Marvin Lewis responded by questioning Hill’s running ability (paraphrasing a bit there). That’s never a good thing.

WIDE RECEIVERS

MOVING UP

DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
Let’s face it – his huge week wasn’t exactly surprising. Entering Week 13, Hopkins had averaged 9.6 targets per game over his last five games. This week against a sorry Tennessee Titans squad, he caught all nine of his targets for 238 yards and a pair of touchdowns, all career highs. The Texans face passing defenses ranked 27th, 20th, 29th and 27th over the next four weeks.

Stedman Bailey, Rams
After setting a career high with 89 receiving yards in Week 12, Bailey followed up that performance by setting a new career high with 100 receiving yards this week against the Raiders. It would have been even better had the Rams not put on the brakes in their 52-0 blowout win. Bailey seems to have a solid rapport with quarterback Shaun Hill and could be useful in larger leagues over the balance of the season.

Keenan Allen, Chargers
After a lacklustre first ten games of the season, Allen is getting hot at just the right time with 17 receptions for 225 yards and three touchdowns in wins over the Rams and Ravens. Here’s hoping his sophomore slump remains a thing of the past.

Robert Woods, Bills
Sammy Watkins has been injured and ineffective, opening the door a crack for Woods, who has 13 receptions for 189 yards and a score on 18 targets over the past two weeks. Of course, the Bills are led by Doug Marrone so there’s a chance he decides to increase the role of journeyman Chris Hogan at Woods’ expense.

MOVING DOWN

Reggie Wayne, Colts
Seven receptions for 41 yards in his last two games and just one touchdown over his last seven games, Wayne is clearly struggling.

Sammy Watkins, Bills
Injuries (including an injured hip this week), poor quarterback play and maybe, just maybe hitting the rookie wall have all conspired to see Watkins manage just 13 receptions for 105 yards and no touchdowns on 29 targets over his last four games. At this point, Watkins owners shouldn’t be afraid of sitting him on their bench.

Corrdarelle Patterson, Vikings
Not sure it’s public knowledge yet as to why Patterson barely saw the field this week (including not playing a single snap in the first half) but I do know that his fantasy value is at an all time low.

Martavis Bryant, Steelers
While a letdown was to be expected after his marvellous four game run (310 yards and six touchdowns), Bryant’s fantasy owners have seen a precipitous decline over his last two games. In games against the Titans and Saints (not exactly the stoutest defenses in the league), Bryant has managed just three receptions on nine targets for 34 yards.

TIGHT ENDS

MOVING UP

Coby Fleener, Colts
Fleener owners just might get rewarded at precisely the right time. With Dwayne Allen out of the lineup since Week 9, Fleener has topped 100 receiving yards in two of his last three games and is averaging 13.9 PPG over his last four games. Also helping matters are the continued struggles of Reggie Wayne.

Jordan Reed, Redskins
It’s about time. Reed finally rewarded his fantasy owners this week, catching nine of 11 passes against the Colts for 123 yards. With 18 targets in the two games Colt McCoy has started, expect him to be solid as long as McCoy stays under center.

MOVING DOWN

Greg Olsen, Panthers
While his production hasn’t plummeted over the past six games (390 receiving yards and 6.5 PPG), it’s worth noting that Olsen hasn’t scored in any of those games.

In the NOT CONVINCED JUST YET category, we present:

Doug Martin, Bucs – Getting the touches (31 in his last two games) but still not doing enough with them.

Donte Moncrief, Colts – Love his potential but his 134 yard, two touchdown performance isn’t repeatable give the low number of targets he usually gets (more than five just once all season).

Chris Johnson, Jets – Sure, he topped 100 receiving yards for the first time as a Jet but it won’t take long for opposing defenses to figure out the Jets won’t let Geno Smith throw the ball. Oh wait, the Dolphins had it figured out by the 2nd half.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Texans – Six touchdowns was sweet but also a fluke. There is a reason he was benched earlier this season by first year head coach Bill O’Brien. It’s because he’s not that good.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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