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Preliminary 2016 Wide Receiver Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 7, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

A.J. Green

Miss out on the top two RB in your draft? No worries. It might even be better to set your team up with one of these stud WR, including the Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green.

The last two days we posted preliminary quarterback tiers and running back tiers for the upcoming fantasy football season. Today, the longest list at 70 players, our preliminary wide receiver tiers.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

Expect detailed projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Feel free to post your feedback in the comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

A.J. Green
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Odell Beckham Jr.

Tier 2

Allen Robinson
DeAndre Hopkins
Dez Bryant
Mike Evans
T.Y. Hilton

Tier 3

Alshon Jeffery
Amari Cooper
Brandon Marshall
Demaryius Thomas
Jarvis Landry
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 4

Brandin Cooks
Doug Baldwin
Eric Decker
Golden Tate
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Keenan Allen
Kelvin Benjamin

Tier 5

Allen Hurns
DeSean Jackson
Donte Moncrief
Emmanuel Sanders
John Brown
Jordan Matthews
Markus Wheaton
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Sterling Shepard ®

Tier 6

DeVante Parker
Kendall Wright
Kevin White
Marvin Jones
Michael Crabtree
Michael Floyd
Stefon Diggs
Steve Smith
Tavon Austin
Ted Ginn
Torrey Smith
Tyler Lockett
Vincent Jackson
Willie Snead

Tier 7

Bruce Ellington
Corey Coleman ®
Jerome Simpson
Kamar Aiken
Kenny Britt
Laquon Treadwell ®
Michael Thomas ®
Mike Wallace
Mohamed Sanu
Pierre Garcon
Robert Woods
Terrance Williams

Tier 8

Brandon LaFell
Danny Amendola
Dorial Green-Beckham
Jamison Crowder
Josh Doctson ®
Nelson Agholor
Rueben Randle
Sammie Coates
Travis Benjamin
Tyler Boyd ®

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

MFL10 Draft Recap From First and Sixth Overall Picks

August 17, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

In a recent MFL10 draft, Mike selected Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson at 1.01, and Tony took Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy at 1.06. Check out how the rest of their respective drafts played out.

In a recent MFL10 draft, Mike selected Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson at 1.01, and Tony took Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy at 1.06. Check out how the rest of their respective drafts played out.

A great way to practice drafting for your upcoming fantasy football drafts, and to get a handle on Average Draft Position (ADP) for players (not to mention, they are a lot of fun) is to enter an MFL10 fantasy league, hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com.

The format is a redraft league with performance plus PPR scoring. The starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF for 9 total starters, and 20 roster spots.

MFL10s are draft-only leagues – no trading, no free agency waiver add/drops – and “best ball” scoring. Due to the best ball scoring, NFL players with high weekly variance might get drafted a bit earlier than usual.

Fantasy owners benefit in weeks these players blow up, while the player is automatically benched in weeks they disappear. These riskier players do take up a valuable roster spot however, so all in all, MFL10s are still a good gauge on where players get drafted in our regular fantasy leagues.

Recently, Draft Buddy creator Mike MacGregor and I participated in an MFL10 draft with other industry experts. Let’s take a look at each of our teams, post-draft. Draft Buddy users can review all of the teams in a copy of Draft Buddy that Mike uploaded to our members area that he used during the draft.

Mike: 1.01 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

It is hard to go wrong with the first overall pick in a redraft. I expect Peterson to have a monster year. I’m thinking “revenge” for 2014. He will be fed every game and no signs point to him slowing down any time soon.

Tony: 1.06 RB Eddie Lacy, GB

Lacy is among the top three running backs in the league, so for him to fall to me at sixth overall, I gladly scooped him up. He is young, he doesn’t have much competition challenging him, and with the best quarterback in the league throwing passes, what is there not to like about Lacy?

Mike: 2.12 RB Justin Forsett, BAL

Forsett was the 2014 breakout candidate of the year as he carried the Ravens backfield after the Ray Rice controversy. With the addition of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, who helped Matt Forte earn the most receptions by a running back in a season last year, Forsett is in line for a bigger receiving role, which is gold for PPR leagues. Finally, according to Pro Football Focus offensive guard rankings, the Ravens have two in the top 10, meaning Forsett should see some big holes to run through.

Tony: 2.07 WR Calvin Johnson, DET

I will gladly take Calvin Johnson here. Last year, Johnson was the first overall wide receiver taken. Yes, injuries have limited him the past few years, but he is still a freak athlete on a team that loves to throw the ball. Johnson says he is the healthiest he has felt in years, and all signs point to a rebound year.

Mike: 3.01 WR T.Y. Hilton, IND

Hilton is the lead receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Andrew Luck. With the addition of running back Frank Gore to help keep defenses worried about the run, Hilton should see less defensive coverage. I expect him to finish with a career high in touchdowns, topping his 2014 total of 7.

Tony: 3.06 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

Hopkins went into 2014 as a sleeper and he definitely lived up to that label. He finished as WR14, even with the questionable quarterbacking he had throwing to him. With running back Arian Foster out with a groin injury, Hopkins will see a ton of targets this year as the Texans will likely be playing from behind. I expect Hopkins to finish in the top 15 receivers again.

Mike: 4.12 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

I rank Olsen as my third overall tight end. He continuously produces for the Panthers. With a healthy running game and the addition of Devin Funchess on the outside, Olsen should find plenty of room in the middle of the field.

Tony: 4.07 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

Sanders helped form one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in 2014. It helps that he has the great Peyton Manning throwing to him. With Demaryius Thomas continuing to demand double coverage, I expect Sanders to have another great year as long as Manning can continue to sling the ball.

Mike: 5.01 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA

Landry was one of the most underappreciated rookie wide receivers in 2014. He finished with 84 receptions on 112 targets, which is an insane 75% catch rate. That translates to a PPR machine. If quarterback Ryan Tannehill continues to take the next step forward, Landry is in for a big season.

Tony: 5.06 RB Shane Vereen, NYG

I have a lot of stock in Vereen this year. Come the end of the year, I expect Vereen to finish as the best running back for the Giants. Not only will he lead the backs in receptions, but, as training camp reports suggest, he will also split the running duties as well. With rookie phenom Odell Beckham Jr. earning double coverage and speedy Victor Cruz returning from injury, Vereen should have plenty of room to work.

Mike: 6.12 RB Doug Martin, TB

Martin gets another, and maybe his last, chance to be the lead back for the Buccaneers. He is their best running option. Training camp reports suggest he has lost weight and body fat in preparation for a major role in the offense. A motivated Martin could produce rewards at the flex option for fantasy teams.

Tony: 6.07 QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Roethlisberger had back-to-back 6 touchdown games in 2014, which is unbelievable. His offensive weapons have only gotten better in 2015. Despite the two-game suspension for running back Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers will be one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this year. I will gladly take Roethlisberger as my quarterback.

Mike: 7.01 WR Mike Wallace, MIN

Mike Wallace is one of my candidates for sleeper status in 2015, or very underrated if you don’t care for the term sleeper. All the hype in Minnesota is around Charles Johnson, but Wallace is not a guy to forget about. Teddy Bridgewater, who I expect to finish in the top 10 quarterbacks this year, has a healthy Peterson back to keep defenses honest, which means there should be plenty of room for burner Wallace to get open on deep routes.

Tony: 7.06 WR Roddy White, ATL

An oldie but a goodie, White, even though he has a slew of knee injuries the past few years, continues to produce worthy fantasy stats. He may not start the season healthy as his knee is still bothering him, but when healthy, the veteran can still play. In my opinion, a move to the slot may help White thrive as he winds down his career.

Mike: 8.12 RB Rashad Jennings, NYG

Jennings should rotate with Vereen as the lead running back, but as I stated about my 6th round pick, I like Vereen to assume more work than Jennings this year. I expect the Giants to do very well this year, providing adequate opportunities for both players.

Tony: 8.07 TE Martellus Bennett, CHI

Despite holdout talks during OTAs, Bennett has shown up to training camp and been blowing new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase away. Bennett has proven he can handle a big workload. I like him to finish within the top five this year.

Mike: 9.01 WR Steve Smith, BAL

We have two great veteran choices here in the ninth round. Both Smith and Boldin should continue to lead their respective teams in targets this year. Smith is the lead receiver for the Ravens with only a rookie as the second option.

Tony: 9.06 WR Anquan Boldin, SF

Boldin now has Torrey Smith opposite him, which should help spread the coverage out, allowing Boldin to utilize his great skills.

Mike: 10.12 QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Another player with a lot of hype is Tannehill. He has great offensive weapons that should make 2015 a career year for him as long as he continues taking those steps forward.

Tony: 10.07 RB Roy Helu, OAK

I am drinking the Helu Kool-Aid this offseason. I loved him as a sleeper for the Redskins when he came out of college, but Alfred Morris broke out as the lead back. I am not a believer in the Raiders lead back Latavius Murray. I expect Helu to start as the pass catching back, but to make his way to the starter role by year-end.

Mike: 11.01 TE Delanie Walker, TEN

Walker is a very good backup to have on your fantasy team, and he could even suffice as a starter in deep leagues. The Titans are in a transition year with rookie franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota now driving the offense, and Walker could be utilized as a safety valve until the offense gets acclimated.

Tony: 11.06 WR Devin Funchess, CAR

Funchess will play opposite Kelvin Benjamin. Both receivers provide big, athletic targets for quarterback Cam Newton. With Benjamin warranting more coverage, Funchess could be a primary target, especially in the red zone, for Newton.

Mike: 12.12 QB Carson Palmer, ARI

Prior to tearing his ACL, Palmer was having a Pro Bowl season, with 62.9% completions, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions through six games. In 2015, he looks to finish what he started in 2014.

Tony: 12.07 RB Knile Davis, KC

If an injury were to happen to all top five running backs (boy do I not wish that to ever happen), the best backup to own is Knile Davis. He has proven he can carry the rock well in support of Jamaal Charles.

Mike: 13.01 RB Fred Jackson, BUF

Jackson is the oldest running back in the NFL today. It is undetermined what role he will have in the new Bills offense under head coach Rex Ryan as training camps report indicate rookie Karlos Williams is quickly moving up the depth charts, so Jackson may be in for a position battle all year.

Tony: 13.06 QB Joe Flacco, BAL

Flacco has consistently been a mid-tier quarterback, but a more than suitable backup for this format. With Trestman now the offensive coordinator, Flacco may be asked to throw more often, which could lead to big stats.

Mike: 14.12 WR Phillip Dorsett, IND

Dorsett has quarterback Luck and receiver Hilton showing him the ropes. So much so that he has passed sophomore Donte Moncrief on the depth charts. Dorsett may have a few big games in him this year.

Tony: 14.07 TE Larry Donnell, NYG

Prior to rookie Beckham Jr. joining the active roster last season, Donnell was the hottest tight end in the NFL, even posting a three-touchdown game in Week 4. Donnell will be a serviceable tight end for my bye week.

Mike: 15.01 WR Kenny Britt, STL

Britt has had an underwhelming career in the NFL and he hopes to improve with new quarterback Nick Foles. All Rams receivers are fast and athletic, so Britt may have some stiff competition on the field.

Tony: 15.06 DEF Houston Texans

Any defense with J.J. Watt is automatically a threat for a big scoring week. The man creates a ton of sacks and turnovers, which he converts into touchdowns himself sometimes. The Texans defense will rank in the top five this year again.

Mike: 16.12 QB Blake Bortles, JAC

Bortles struggled in his rookie year in 2014. He now has more offensive weapons and reports are he has taken great strides this offseason.

Tony: 16.07 RB Javorius Allen, BAL

Rookie running back Allen may threaten Forsett as the pass catching back, especially in Trestman’s offense. As I’ve already stated, we should expect to see this offense air the ball out more, so Allen has plenty of potential in PPR leagues.

Mike: 17.01 DEF New England Patriots

The front seven players for the Patriots defense should be dominant this year. It is the defensive backs that are questionable.

Tony: 17.06 WR Josh Huff, PHI

Personally, I feel Josh Huff will earn the number two WR position this year opposite Jordan Matthews. I know rookie Nelson Agholor is there, but Huff has been dominating camp and will come extremely cheap in all drafts this year.

Mike: 18.12 DEF Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense provides some depth at the position and they will suffice as a backup.

Tony: 18.07 WR Allen Hurns, JAC

Hurns passed Marqise Lee to deserve the number two receiver designation opposite Allen Robinson. We saw Hurns handle the number one role in 2014 quite well, so if Bortles takes that next step in 2015, I expect some big weeks for Hurns.

Mike: 19.01 WR Robert Woods, BUF

With defenses focusing on sophomore Sammy Watkins, Woods may find some open spots on the field for the Bills. He has nothing but upside.

Tony: 19.06 DEF New York Giants

The Giants defense should take a huge step forward this year with their improved linebackers and defensive backs. Let’s just hope Jason Pierre-Paul makes it back quick from his offseason hand injury.

Mike: 20.12 DEF Jacksonville Jaguars

I personally think the Jaguars are the most underrated defense in the league. They have a great linebacker corps and improved their defensive backs. The defensive line still needs improvement. Do not be surprised if they finish in the top 15 this year.

Tony: 20.07 WR Danny Amendola, NE

As my last pick, Amendola is practically free. Over the first four weeks while Tom Brady is likely suspended, Amendola should be a safety valve out of the slot for QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

Below are the final rosters for each team. Which side do you prefer, and what would you do differently constructing your best-ball MFL10 team from either of these draft spots?

Screen Shot 2015-08-17 at 1.23.24 PM Screen Shot 2015-08-17 at 1.23.53 PM

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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