Lucky and Unlucky Pitchers Due For A Correction

March 21, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Luck plays a part in a pitcher’s stat line. Chris identifies pitchers who were extra lucky last season (like Stephen Strasburg) or unlucky (Chris Archer), expecting that luck evens out, and to use to our advantage this year.

The only sure thing about luck is that it will change

Famed playwright and raconteur, Wilson Mizner

That quote sums up what I am aiming to apply to this fantasy baseball analysis. I’m looking for starting pitchers that have been either lucky or unlucky in 2017, and digging deeper to see if I can take advantage in 2018.

There are a lot of metrics I like to look at to get a feeling if a pitcher was lucky or unlucky in the previous season.

Earned Run Average minus Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (ERA-xFIP)
I like to think of xFIP as the pitcher’s “true” ERA, or his ERA based on the things he can control (strikeouts and walks), and removes the things he has little to no control over (defense and BABIP). Subtracting xFIP from the pitcher’s ERA gives us an idea of whether he is lucky or unlucky. If the pitcher’s ERA is higher than xFIP it tells me that the pitcher may be unlucky and is actually pitching better than his ERA indicates. The opposite can be said if his ERA is lower than his xFIP.

Outside of ERA-xFIP, I like to look at batted ball metrics. We know that pitchers do not have complete control over what happens to a baseball once it’s put into play, but they do have some control over the type of batted ball they allow (ground ball, line drive or fly ball).

Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
A pitcher with a high BABIP is seeing more balls fall in for hits thus raising his ERA and WHIP. Things should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA and WHIP.

Left On Base Percentage (LOB%)
A LOB% lower than 72.1% indicates that he is allowing more runners to score than the league average thus increasing his ERA. Like BABIP, this should even out over the course of the season and lower his ERA.

Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
Ground balls are the best for a pitcher. That is because they tend to go for hits more often than fly balls (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s ground ball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. I like to compare the pitcher’s GB% rate to the league average and his career average to get any idea if luck played a role.

Home Run to Flyball Rate (HR/FB)
Pitchers generally do not have control over their HR/FB from year to year. The ballpark that a pitcher pitches in can have an effect on their HR/FB rate. A high HR/FB indicates that the pitcher is serving up more home runs than normal and thus their ERA is probably high. Over the course of the season their HR/FB should lower towards the league average and lower their ERA.

Here are the MLB totals for these metrics over the last three seasons, plus the 10-year average. These results are from starting pitchers only, no relievers.

Metric	2015	2016	2017	2008-2017
ERA-xFIP	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.09
BABIP	0.297	0.298	0.299	0.296
LOB%	72.3%	72.2%	72.1%	71.8%
GB%	45.2%	44.3%	44.0%	44.3%
HR/FB	11.6%	13.3%	14.2%	11.2%
Innings	28,223.1	27,412.2	26,787.1	28,352.1

Here are a few things that interest me from this data:

Total innings pitched by starters is going down each season.
All of these metrics are pretty consistent over the past three seasons, except HR/FB which appears to be steadily climbing.

For this exercise I went to FanGraphs and exported 2017 stats for starting pitchers only (134 pitchers). I then simply determined if each pitcher was lucky/normal/unlucky for each metric. To determine lucky vs. unlucky I came up with these guidelines. Anything in-between was considered “normal”.

Metric	Lucky	Unlucky
ERA-xFIP	< -0.5	> 0.5
BABIP	< .289	> .309
LOB%	> 73.1%	< 71.1%
GB%	> 45.0%	< 43.0%
HR/FB	< 12.2%	> 16.2%

For the players identified below, sabermetric stats are from FanGraphs.com, 2018 projections are from Steamer, and ADP is from FantasyPros on March 7, 2018.

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
ADP SP #33, Overall #119

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	22	118.2	7	4	132	4.25	1.30	$1
2018 (Projected)	24	137.0	10	7	145	3.61	1.28	$12

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	125.2	3.22	1.19	-0.28	.288	75.0%	46.5%	9.3%
2016	81.0	3.22	1.54	0.16	.383	81.4%	57.3%	11.9%
2017	118.2	4.25	1.30	1.08	.330	67.6%	61.3%	12.7%

In 2017, McCullers was one of nine pitchers that had his xFIP a whole run lower than his ERA. Combine that with his high BABIP and low LOB%, and you could say that McCullers was quite unlucky in 2017.

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, he’s always been a groundball pitcher with a career 54.5% GB% (league average is 44.3%) and a 2.21 GB/FB (league average is 1.26). When he does let a ball get hit in the air it tends to stay in the park with a career HR/FB of 10.8% (league average is 13.0%). Those facts combined with the thought that his luck should turn indicates that he is someone you should not shy away from during your draft.

Chris Archer, TB
ADP SP #16, Overall #55

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	34	201.0	10	12	249	4.07	1.26	$9
2018 (Projected)	32	196.0	12	11	222	3.49	1.17	$26

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	212.0	3.23	1.14	0.22	.295	73.1%	46.1%	10.4%
2016	201.1	4.02	1.24	0.61	.296	72.5%	47.8%	16.2%
2017	201.0	4.07	1.26	0.72	.325	71.3%	42.0%	14.1%

In 2017, Archer brought you a lot of K’s and D’oh!’s as he struggled through an up and down season. A high BABIP (27th highest out of the 134 pitchers in this study) is the metric that sticks out the most. But, if you look at the others they are all leaning towards “unlucky.”

Why should you think he can bounce back in 2018? Well, his xFIP in the first half of 2017 was 3.42 with an ERA of 3.95, while in the second half his ERA was higher at 4.27 but his xFIP was lower at 3.23, with the telling stat being HR/FB. In the second half his HR/FB was 18.0% compared to 10.4% in the first half. Prior to 2016 his HR/FB ratio was consistently below 11.7% even in the minors. My gut tells me that Archer just took a little longer to “right the ship” in 2017 but eventually got there in the second half. I’m expecting his 2018 numbers to end up more like his 2015 numbers.

BUYER BEWARE

Gio Gonzalez, WAS
ADP SP #38, Overall #140

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	32	201.0	15	9	188	2.96	1.18	$20
2018 (Projected)	32	190.0	12	10	170	4.17	1.37	$4

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	175.2	3.79	1.42	0.2	.341	72.1%	53.8%	5.9%
2016	177.1	4.57	1.34	0.77	.316	67.6%	47.6%	12.5%
2017	201.0	2.96	1.18	-1.28	.258	81.6%	45.8%	11.1%

In 2017, Gio had the 7th lowest* ERA-xFIP of the 134 starting pitchers in this analysis. I’m pretty sure that you don’t need to be a card carrying member of SABR to see that Gio was very lucky last season. Along with his ERA-xFIP he had the 12th lowest BABIP and the 6th highest LOB%.

Why should you avoid drafting him at his current ADP in 2018? While enjoying metrics on the very lucky spectrum his 45.8% GB% was not far from his 47.5% career GB% and his 11.1% HR/FB was higher than his 9.3% career HR/FB. This all adds up to a big red flag telling me to avoid drafting him this year.

* The other six are, in order of lowest ERA-xFIP, Andrew Cashner, Chase Anderson, Ervin Santana, Jose Urena, Parker Bridwell and Lance Lynn. I selected Gonzalez because he has the highest ADP of the seven. Safe to say you should avoid these other six just the same. As I was putting this article together I nearly went entirely in the Buyer Beware direction.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS
ADP SP #6, Overall #27

Season	GS	IP	W	L	K	ERA	WHIP	5X5
2017	28	175.1	15	4	204	2.52	1.02	$29
2018 (Projected)	31	188.0	14	9	216	3.45	1.15	$28

Season	Innings	ERA	WHIP	ERA-xFIP	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB
2015	127.1	3.46	1.11	0.77	.311	70.7%	42.2%	12.4%
2016	147.2	3.60	1.10	0.4	.294	73.6%	39.5%	10.6%
2017	175.1	2.52	1.02	-0.75	.274	77.9%	46.8%	8.7%

In 2017, Strasburg turned in arguably his best season with career lows in ERA and WHIP in 28 starts (most since 2014). Anytime someone has a “career year” you should take pause and evaluate whether or not luck played a role.

Why should you not immediately pencil him in as the #5 SP on the board? Although, Strasburg had a career best ERA (2.52) he had his career worst xFIP (3.27). Think about that for a second. His 2017 .274 BABIP was a good bit lower than his career .295 BABIP. His 8.7% HR/FB in 2017 was the 6th lowest of the 134 starting pitchers and also below his 10.9% career HR/FB.

Put it all together and you see why I’m asking you to temper your expectations for him in 2018. He’s going to be one of the better starters in any format but I’m comfortable passing on him at the top of the 3rd round and selecting someone like Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom or Luis Severino later in 3rd or even taking Archer in 4th.

Tiers of Starting Pitching – Speculative Plays

March 11, 2011 By Bodhizefa 5 Comments

Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

Speculative Plays

Jake Westbrook, RHP, STL (4.22 ERA, 4.24 FIP, -0.02 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
The funny thing about Westbrook is that he was already a groundball-dominant pitcher before he came under the tutelage of Dave Duncan, so it’s not like Duncan had to work much of his magic on the guy. Bid on more of the same from Westbrook.

Kyle McClellan, RHP, STL (2.27 ERA, 4.07 FIP, -1.80 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Gandhi, Jesus, and Mohammad all walked into Dave Duncan’s office one day to talk to him about religion. They walked out as 5.5 K/9 pitchers with team-friendly ERA’s and groundball rates in the 2.00’s. We can probably expect Duncan to work the same magic on McClellan as well.

Johan Santana, LHP, NYM (2.98 ERA, 3.58 FIP, -0.60 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Once he comes back from his injury, Santana will still be able to live on as a very useful fantasy pitcher well beyond his prime as long as he calls Citi Field home. And that’s a good thing, because Santana is definitely beyond his prime. Still, he’s a very good pitcher, and he’s worth a shot late in mixed leagues.

Doug Fister, RHP, SEA (4.11 ERA, 3.69 FIP, +0.42 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Safeco plays better for southpaws than righties, so Fister doesn’t get quite as much of a boost as the likes of Vargas and the rest of the Mariner lefties. Still, he’s a control pitcher with a very good defense behind him. He’s obviously not going to help in K’s, but there’s a good shot at Fister providing a low 4’s ERA with a WHIP in the high 1.20’s. He’s probably a somewhat useful pitcher in AL leagues.

Barry Zito, LHP, SF (4.15 ERA, 4.22 FIP, -0.07 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s dependable in his mediocrity. San Francisco isn’t the most ideal park for him as it plays a bit bigger for right-handed pitchers, but it’s still a pitcher’s park. And Zito has a very good defense behind him. In other words, there’s some slight upside to his ERA and WHIP if some defensive luck bounces his way, and he offers little in the way of injury downside. He’s not a bad guy to have at the back end of a deeper league staff.

Jason Hammel, RHP, COL (4.81 ERA, 3.76 FIP, +1.05 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s in a horrible park with what is now a bad defense. Despite the fact that I like his abilities, Hammel is a guy who will almost always underperform his FIP as long as those negative factors are in play. A perfect world projection (well, as perfect as Hammel could hope being in Coors) could see him with a 4.25 ERA, a WHIP in the low 1.30’s, and 150 K. But I’d bet on the under and hope for him to have some luck for a change.

Justin Masterson, RHP, CLE (4.70 ERA, 3.94 FIP, +0.76 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There’s a lot to like in his peripheral stats, and there’s certainly some room for growth after a superficially horrible season. But the Indians’ defense is so bad that I have a hard time taking him too seriously. I’d look for a 4.25+ ERA with a WHIP in the high 1.30’s or low 1.40’s. He does have the potential for 150+ strikeouts, so he’s not without his usefulness. You’re going to have to deploy him with a WHIP anchor, though.

Julio Teheran, RHP, ATL (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s a dynamite prospect for keeper leagues. I hope he gets a shot at a rotation spot later in the year, but at worst, he’ll be a great bullpen arm for the Braves to utilize down the stretch. Longterm, he’s the best pitching prospects in baseball (I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know).

Jordan Lyles, RHP, HOU (Rookie)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
With Minute Maid Park playing kind to pitchers these days, and with the Astros so pitching starved (and talent starved in general), Lyles has a good shot at being a starter for them by June at the latest (and I’m guessing sooner if everything goes right). My opinion is that he still needs a bit of seasoning, but I’m a buyer down the line as I think he’ll make for a nice mid-rotation fantasy starter with plenty of WHIP and ERA upside with some K’s tossed in as well.

J.A. Happ, LHP, HOU (3.40 ERA, 4.32 FIP, -0.92 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
I’m cautiously optimistic. Happ found a successful slider last year, and if he can combine that with his useful change-up from 2009, he could cobble himself into being a pretty decent fantasy pitcher. Of course, the probability of all of that happening isn’t exactly huge. So there’s room for success here, but don’t bid too aggressively. If you can pay for a 4.20 ERA and a 1.35ish WHIP, there’s a lot of room for profit.

Jason Vargas, LHP, SEA (3.78 ERA, 3.98 FIP, -0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Vargas is pretty boring, but he has a few factors going in his favor that allow me to recommend him in deeper leagues. First, he’s a southpaw in Safeco Field, which is a lot like putting a pitcher in Petco as Safeco crushes the right-handed hitters while the LHP’s natural split factor against left-handed hitters does the rest. Secondly, Seattle projects to have another good to great defense. Combine those with solid control and a good change-up, and you’ve got a guy who projects to have a low 4.00’s ERA (with a high 3.00’s ERA not totally out of the question) and a WHIP in the high 1.20 to low 1.30 range. He won’t get you strikeouts for the most part, but he’s a useful pitcher to be had on the cheap. In other words, last year wasn’t a total fluke for this guy.

Jeff Francis, LHP, KC (5.00 ERA, 3.87 FIP, +1.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Francis finally gets out of Coors which means he can finally become a somewhat productive fantasy pitcher. His repertoire doesn’t lend itself to Coors much at all (soft-tossing lefty who throws the ball over the plate with great frequency), but he’s just the type of quiet investment that could lead to a tidy profit on draft day if you get him for cheap. Injury risks exist, but I’m actually looking at him to toss 150+ innings.

Dallas Braden, LHP, OAK (3.50 ERA, 3.88 FIP, -0.38 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s actually much better against righties than he is lefties as his change-up is a fine pitch. Add that in with good (and possibly very good) control along with the Oakland park which plays bigger for southpaws, and I’d invest in him with some confidence. A high 3’s ERA with a WHIP in the mid-to-high 1.20’s is very do-able. He won’t really help in K’s, but he could see more Wins this year as the A’s have a better overall team.

Chris Narveson, LHP, MIL (4.99 ERA, 4.24 FIP, +0.75 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
There’s some strikeout and WHIP upside here from his 2010 performance, but the problem is that he plays for a crappy defense and he’s got homerun problems that are unlikely to go away. If you can get him for cheap and handle the mid-4’s (or worse) ERA, there’s a little value to be found here.

Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, BAL (3.83 ERA, 4.50 FIP, -0.67 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Guthrie almost always out-produces his FIP. And while it’s always tough to predict that type of thing given that it’s most often an outlier in the projection system, Guthrie deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point. PECOTA has its Ichiro. Pitching prognosticators have their Matt Cain‘s and Jeremy Guthrie’s.

John Ely, RHP, LAD (5.49 ERA, 4.40 FIP, +1.09 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Hand-cuffing the likes of Ely with Vicente Padilla seems like it could make for a profitable Frankensteinian pitcher by year’s end in daily transaction leagues. Ely’s the worse of the two, but he’s got a bit of strikeout and ERA potential. Don’t sleep on him in deep leagues if he comes uber-cheap.

Kris Medlen, RHP, ATL (3.68 ERA, 3.82 FIP, -0.14 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Medlen looked good in his limited time as a starter last season for the Braves. I’d hold onto him in keeper leagues as I have high expectations for him when he returns in 2012.

Nate Robertson, LHP, SEA (5.95 ERA, 4.84 FIP, +1.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Robertson actually offers a small (very small, mind you) opportunity for profit in deep AL leagues with both Safeco and a great defensive unit behind him. As Safeco helps left-handed pitchers keep the ball in the park (Robertson’s biggest weakness over the years) as much as any stadium in the game, Robertson would be an interesting pitcher to deploy at home in deep leagues. He’s easy to make fun of, but when you’re in the reserve rounds of your AL league, there are worse names you could be considering (I’m looking at you, Mitch Talbot!)

R.A. Dickey, RHP, NYM (2.84 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -0.83 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Knuckleballs! He may give similar numbers to Mike Pelfrey, but at least he’s not boring about it.

Manny Banuelos, LHP, NYY (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Being a southpaw, Banuelos naturally improves his chances against the short porch in right in Yankee Stadium. He’s really young (19) and he’s likely to start the season in Double-A, but Banuelos is someone to be very aware of as he seems to have very good stuff and the Yankees look to have plenty of rotation needs, too. It’s also nice to hear pretty much everyone who has met him love his approach and character. The lack of warning signs is always a positive.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS (2.98 ERA, 2.01 FIP, +0.97 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Stephen Strasburg is so amazing, he once broke FIP. I don’t care if he only pitches one week this season, you want this man on your team. Buy buy buy!

Michael Kirkman, LHP, TEX (1.65 ERA, 2.96 FIP, -1.31 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Kirkman has good stuff, but he lacks the control necessary to really strive in MLB yet. He could use another half season in Triple-A to hone his control as well as refining his change-up. Long-term, he’s someone I’m interested in. Southpaws with good fastballs, sliders, and stamina don’t grow on trees, so follow him throughout the minor league season to keep abreast of how he’s doing.

Vance Worley, RHP, PHI (1.38 ERA, 3.16 FIP, -1.78 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
In any other organization, this guy could be a boon to deep league owners as he’s got big league control and should probably be an asset in WHIP almost immediately. In fact, I think there’s a chance he’s already a better pitcher than Joe Blanton (although Blanton would probably eat me for saying that). But with the Phillies, Worley has to wait his turn. He’s behind Blanton and Kendrick and probably only sees 80-100 innings (as the team’s seventh starter) unless the organization has some serious injuries in their rotation early and often. He’s certainly a guy I’d take a reserve round flyer on in deep NL leagues, though.

Vicente Padilla, RHP, LAD (4.07 ERA, 4.20 FIP, -0.13 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
Useful. That’s what this guy is. He’s just useful. You can sneak a pitcher like Padilla past most owners in your leagues as they look for the next big thing. Meanwhile, Padilla is steady and helps you out, especially in the NL where his stuff plays up his strikeouts a lot more. Yeah, he’s out right now, and the news is that he’ll likely miss all of April. And sure, he’s only a sixth starter when he comes back. But injuries can and will happen to the rest of the Dodgers’ staff, so I expect him to see at least 15 starts and possibly more. He should be a bargain on draft day or in the few weeks just beyond. So shop smart – shop Veteran Pitcher Mart.

David Pauley, RHP, SEA (4.07 ERA, 4.94 FIP, -0.87 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor (RHP):
Pauley is a classic Safeco Field benefactor, except that he’s not a left-handed pitcher, so he won’t get the park’s full benefits. He does well against left-handed hitters due to his solid change-up, so he probably won’t blow up your ERA, and he’s got above average control to help keep the WHIP down. He’s not really a pitcher you want to pay anything for, but as a reserve in a deep AL league, he could serve you well. Of course, this could be said of any lefty Mariners pitcher or right-hander with a good change-up. Just be aware of that fact over the names of the pitchers.

Luke French, LHP, SEA (4.83 ERA, 5.29 FIP, -0.46 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor (LHP):
Due to defense and park factor being so much in his favor, it’s easy to be very slightly optimistic about French’s potential at the back-end of Seattle’s rotation. In a perfect world, he could find success as a Jarrod Washburn wannabe. But the world is rarely perfect, so bid according to whatever shade glasses you’re wearing this year.

Kenshin Kawakami, RHP, ATL (5.15 ERA, 4.35 FIP, +0.80 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
He’s an asset as a starter, and if another team would take a chance on him, he’d probably serve them well. The Braves’ rotation doesn’t have room for him, though, and with all the stud starting prospects, he’s unlikely to get much of a chance in Atlanta in 2011. If he’s traded, make a move for him. But as it stands, he’s not much use to anyone.

David Hernandez, RHP, ARI
Defense:
Park Factor:
Hernandez is a big sleeper this year, but not as a starter. I think he could have a legitimate shot at being a good closer at some point. If Putz gets hurt, Hernandez may surprise a bunch of people and take over the gig.

Josh Tomlin, RHP, CLE (4.56 ERA, 4.59 FIP, -0.03 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Tomlin has very good control which somewhat mitigates his overall lack of stuff. He could be a bit of aid in WHIP in AL leagues. He’s not too bad in strikeouts either. In other words, he’s not overly exciting, but Tomlin is probably going to be useful in deep leagues.

Chris Resop, RHP, PIT (3.86 ERA, 3.08 FIP, +0.78 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Forgive me for falling for his elite minor league strikeout rates. I think Pittsburgh could do worse than to give him a rotation spot for a year and see what he’s capable of full-time. Maybe he ends up as nothing more than a reliever, but it’s worth a shot, especially given just how awful Pittsburgh is overall and how much ground they need to gain to ever become a contender again. Keeping a potentially good starter as a mop-up reliever seems like an awful waste of time.

Andrew Oliver, LHP, DET (4.56 ERA, 4.28 FIP, +0.28 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Color me intrigued. While a guy like Porcello has gotten all the press in Tigertown, Oliver has the potential to be the much more interesting fantasy pitcher. He’s got good strikeout stuff, brandishes an excellent fastball, and has the makings of a good change-up to combat righties, too. He’s still probably a year away from real fantasy relevance, but his stuff and potential make him worth monitoring in the meantime.

Justin Duchscherer, RHP, BAL (3.59 ERA, 4.04 FIP, -0.45 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
He’s a good pitcher when healthy, but I’d trust Betty White to make it through this year with fewer health issues than The Duck. (Duke? No, Duck I say.) However, if your roster can incur the risk, he may be worth a flier.

Ross Detwiler, LHP, WAS (4.25 ERA, 4.65 FIP, -0.40 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
It all boils down to velocity for me with Detwiler. If he can find his old velo, he’s still got a chance at being a mid-rotation starter. If that velocity never comes back, he’s end of the rotation fodder and a fantasy crapfest. Watch the radar guns early and often to make sure you don’t walk into a clogged bathroom stall.

Carlos Carrasco, RHP, CLE (3.83 ERA, 4.13 FIP, -0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Carrasco has good control, pretty good fastball velocity with good movement, very solid secondary offerings, and he’s above average in striking out hitters, too (the fascist). And while last year was probably the peak of what we can expect from his Groundball-to-Flyball ratio, he’s still what I would consider a groundball-heavy pitcher. The two main issues – and unfortunately for him, they’re big ones – are that he has a pretty atrocious defense behind him, and he also has some moderate issues with homeruns allowed. The poor defense is going to drive his BABIP (and thus his WHIP) up, and the homerun problem will inflate his ERA. I like his stuff a lot, but I have trouble projecting him to have a good 2011. Carrasco would be an interesting play in keeper leagues as I feel like he’s going to be a good fantasy pitcher in the future – just not this year.

Marc Rzepczynski, LHP, TOR (4.95 ERA, 4.57 FIP, +0.38 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
“The Alphabet”, as I like to call him, is a bit of a mystery. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff, but he produces pretty good underlying statistics. In some ways, he reminds me of a young Ted Lilly. It should be noted that it took Lilly until he wasn’t so young anymore (age 31) before he finally figured things out and harnessed his control. There’s upside here, but The Alphabet probably needs at least another year of working on his control plus refining his change-up to at least be average before he’s likely to make much fantasy noise. Let’s just hope that it doesn’t take him quite as long as it did Lilly. Let’s also hope that attrition is kind to him. Buy him for the strikeouts, and consider anything else somewhat serendipitous.

Zach Britton, LHP, BAL (Rookie)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
A lot of people have labeled him as a left-handed Brandon Webb. I haven’t seen him pitch yet, but anyone drawing those type of comparisons by scouts piques my interest. His groundball tendencies will serve him well in Camden Yards, too, although sinkerball pitchers generally have higher WHIP’s because of all the groundballs sliding through for singles. I’d be wary of expecting much more than smallish ERA help and slightly above average K’s when he first comes up. His WHIP is likely to suffer.

Casey Kelly, RHP, SD (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I don’t care now whether he profiles to be a #2 or #3 starter – I want him on my team regardless. Petco is such a beautiful park, don’t you think?

Mike Montgomery / John Lamb, LHP, KC (Rookies)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I like them both for different reasons (Montgomery’s more high risk/high reward; Lamb is more likely to be ready sooner). My issue is that Kansas City seems unlikely to call these guys up until as late as possible. My guess is that they’ll see their first big league time in 2012 instead of this year.

Jacob Turner, RHP, DET (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
The Tigers have never really shied away from calling up their dynamo pitching prospects as soon as possible, and I’m not sure they’ll wait that long to give Turner a shot either. I think there’s a good chance he’ll be up by mid-season for a cup of coffee, and if he does well, he could stick longer. Keep an eye on him in his first couple of months in the minors, because you may need to bid on him sooner than later.

Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI (Rookie)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I can’t imagine Arizona will keep him down much past the Super Two deadline if he looks like he’s fully recovered and ready. If he is ready, he’ll be an instant strikeout source with plenty of longterm upside. If he isn’t quite up to speed, don’t forget about him because you may find him useful with a late-season call-up. I like his strikeout potential quite a bit, so I can’t wait till he’s called up and we can get a look at him.

Dillon Gee, RHP, NYM (2.18 ERA, 4.20 FIP, -2.02 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Gee is a perfect fit for NL leagues looking for underrated but probable positive value. He’s a control artist who may give up too many homeruns to be too strong of an asset in ERA, but a 4.00 ERA with a WHIP in the 1.20’s is possible for Gee, especially given the park and the solid defense behind him. Don’t expect strikeouts, though.

Charlie Morton, RHP, PIT (7.59 ERA, 5.29 FIP, +2.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Morton has pretty good stuff, induces plenty of groundballs, and has been really ridiculously unlucky in terms of homeruns given up and BABIP. If that’s not a posterboy for a sleeper, I don’t know what is. Yes, the Pirates’ defense is abysmal. Yes, that will hurt Morton’s actual ERA in its translation from his FIP. Still, there’s enough in the peripheral stats (good K/9 nearing 7, improving BB/9 under 3) and his stuff (which isn’t overwhelming but should be good enough to improve his counting stat line significantly) to suggest he could post an ERA in the high 3’s to low 4’s. His WHIP will suffer due to the defense, though, so don’t expect a miracle worker here. He’d be much more interesting with either a better defense or a better change-up. Here’s hoping he’s been working on his change over the off-season.

Felix Doubront, LHP, BOS (4.32 ERA, 4.12 FIP, +0.20 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Doubront needs more time in the minors to work on his secondary offerings as well as his control, but it’s not hard to envision him as a 3rd/4th starter for the Red Sox down the road. In the meantime, his profile suggests that he shouldn’t be counted on in any fantasy leagues. He’s merely a hopeful arm with a bit of promise for the future.

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Fantasy Baseball Injury Update: Pitchers

February 22, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Not surprisingly, because it happens every year, many baseball players finished the 2010 season with injuries. Players coming off injury will generally make fantasy owners question whether they should stay away or not, which could result in us finding a great buy low candidate.

We already looked at the status of key hitters coming off injury. Here is a look at some pitchers who lost time to injury last season and what we should expect for 2011.

Good Value

Brandon Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game from 2006-2008, but had his 2009 season cut short after pitching four innings on Opening Day, sustaining a shoulder injury. Webb never saw the field in 2010. His target is to be on the Texas Rangers’ active roster for Opening Day this season, but the team is being cautious with him and that may not be realistic.

Regardless, assuming he is healthy and starting again before long, pitching in the American League in Texas is always a risk to your ratios. A late round pick could be rewarded with early-to-mid round performance considering Webb’s talent if he can recapture his old form.

Joe Nathan was considered an elite closer going into 2010 before he blew out his elbow during Spring Training last March. Nathan looks good to go this spring and should resume where he left off for the Minnesota Twins. He is likely to slide in your draft, so pounce when the time is right on a bargain top closer.

High Risk, High Reward

Florida Marlins’ Josh Johnson was shut down for the season in early September with back and shoulder problems. The back is a small reason for concern, but the shoulder is a major one. Johnson is one of baseball’s elite pitchers when health permits. Johnson indicated in early February that he, “feels great” physically, but one or both of these injuries may linger into this season. Considering that it will probably take a relatively high pick to land Johnson, let someone take on the downside risk and go with a more sure thing.

New York Mets’ Johan Santana had elbow surgery in September 2009 and shoulder surgery in September 2010. Santana was baseball’s best pitcher from 2004-06, but those days are behind him. Elbow injuries are not so worrisome these days, but shoulder problems are hard to shake and tend to spell the beginning of the end of careers. He will not pitch until June at the earliest. Let him take up room on someone else’s roster in 2011.

Josh Beckett had a very untypically poor 2010 season for the Boston Red Sox. He suffered a lower back injury and when he returned, he lived somewhere between awful and worse. Although many consider his down year a one-off and expect a big bounce back, I recently decided to take a more conservative approach by reducing my original projections for him. He is still worth a mid-round pick as he will be solid at the worst on the powerful BoSox, but Beckett’s best days may be behind him.

Jake Peavy didn’t pitch after July because of a shoulder injury that required surgery in September. Like Santana, Peavy’s shoulder woes are reason for concern, especially after only 33 starts in the last two seasons. Even though he’s ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation, the White Sox have no timetable for his return. The White Sox were looking at Chris Sale as a possible starter until Peavy is healthy enough to return to the rotation, but the hope is Peavy is healthy with Sale slated for the bullpen. Peavy is worth a flier at the end of your draft, but don’t invest anything serious here. He could be dead weight on your roster for some time.

David Aardsma did a great job closing games for the Seattle Mariners during the last two seasons. Unfortunately, they didn’t give him a lot of save opportunities last year and likely won’t again this year. On the injury front, Aardsma had hip surgery in December and is still on crutches to help him get around.

He isn’t going to do much through Spring Training and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. His hip injury is something that might linger, or there could be some rust just getting back into shape even if the rehab goes well. He might be a good late round source for saves, but you’ll need to be patient to see any production, and be ready to cut bait if Aardsma can’t shake the injury.

Tread Carefully

Erik Bedard should be ready to start the season following shoulder surgery. He threw his first bullpen session of the year a week ago and reported no issues. Bedard has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, so tread carefully. When healthy, Bedard is very good, but those days seem few and far between as Mariners fans know all too well. He has nice value if you can get him late in your draft, but it is still a risky pick because Bedard has a habit of coming up lame and disappointing.

Rich Harden was injured again last season. That line has been used almost every year of Harden’s eight year MLB career. He’s only started more than 26 games in a season once and the safe bet is that he never will again. No one doubts that Harden has elite talent when healthy, but those days are rarely seen and a dinged up Harden is not quite like the real thing. Harden is returning for a third stint with the Oakland Athletics. Spend a late round pick on him, but don’t invest anything significant. Also, if your league doesn’t have a DL slot on your roster, just avoid Harden all together.

Chris Young is somewhat of a reclamation project for the New York Mets. After battling injuries for the past three seasons, including shoulder problems most recently, he looks like a low-risk bet for the Mets and maybe for your fantasy squad. If he remains healthy and comes even close to his career ratios of 3.80 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP, he would be a steal. The big question is whether he can return to pre-injury form.

Stephen Strasburg lived up to the hype by striking out 14 batters in his MLB debut. He went on to strike out 41 batters in his first four starts and the legend was being written. Then tragedy struck with an elbow injury that required elbow ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery that ended his 2010 season. He isn’t due back until late this season at the earliest. The Washington Nationals have a 12 to 18 month timetable on his rehabilitation, and expect them to take it easy on him once he does return. Expect nothing from Strasburg in 2011, but look for a great bounce back in 2012.

Chien-Ming Wang missed all of the 2010 season with an injured right shoulder. The Nationals would like nothing more than for Wang to return to the form that saw him post back-to-back 19-win seasons for the New York Yankees in 2006-07. The encouraging news is that Wang pitched in the Instructional League without any problems, but remember this is a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 that has shoulder problems. He’s worth a late flier, but nothing more.

LUCK COULD TURN AROUND

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU ADP SP #33, Overall #119

Chris Archer, TB ADP SP #16, Overall #55