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Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Screen Shot 2015-08-05 at 10.44.08 AMHere is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last week impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. The big news is of course Arian Foster’s injury. I drafted him a week ago at the 12 spot in the $350 entry Footballguys Players Championship, so that really sucks!

Otherwise there are a number of key or interesting notes out of training camps prior to the first preseason games, many of which will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Trent Richardson, Raiders

Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR Breshad Perriman is currently limited with a bruised knee. The more time he misses, the less likely he can make an immediate impact, although a couple rookies (Beckham, Bryant) did pretty well last season after sitting the first third of the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills QB situation is a muddled mess of low expectations regardless of who wins the starting job, but we need to know and the tea leaves suggest it is Matt Cassel right now based on experience.

Carolina Panthers

WR Stephen Hill was placed on IR, ending his comeback.

Chicago Bears

Kevin White is sidelined with a shin injury suffered during OTAs. He’s on the PUP (preseason version, no immediate panic necessary), but it isn’t looking good for him to be in the starting lineup anytime soon at this point. Eddie Royal gets a boost.

Cleveland Browns

RB Terrance West has a calf injury, while rookie Duke Johnson has a hamstring injury. The only one not complaining and perhaps due a bump up our rankings (?) is Isaiah Crowell.

Dallas Cowboys

A lot can change rather quickly, but the highly coveted starting RB job appears to be Joseph Randle’s to lose at this point. Darren McFadden is already dinged up.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell is rehabbing from an Achilles’ and knee injury with no set timetable to return. This appears to be a little more serious than early drafts would indicate, as news of his health was pretty quiet. Heck, didn’t we see a “1,200 yard” prediction out of Bell just a few weeks ago? Rookie Ameer Abdullah has an opportunity for a larger role in the backfield and represents a good target for a later drafted RB.

Houston Texans

The news bigger than the sum of the rest of this entire update, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury. It is serious, requiring surgery which will put him on IR-designated to return (after Week 10), as reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Behind him we prefer sophomore Alfred Blue, but they also have Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and are evaluating free agents including Pierre Thomas. Take a shot on Blue, but it could easily be a mess. Even if Foster can return, 10 weeks is a long time to hold a player on your roster (unless you have an open IR spot), so I wouldn’t even consider adding him in a draft unless the pick is really low.

No clarity on who has a leg up in this QB battle, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Hurns is ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, starting opposite Allen Robinson.

New York Giants

The team added WR James Jones, which is a bit curious since reports on Victor Cruz’ recovery are positive. Still, Jones might be worth an add in a 30-roster spot best-ball league.

New York Jets

Early indications are Geno Smith appears to be ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job.

Another rookie WR with an injury, this time Devin Smith has a punctured lung (ouch) and will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oakland Raiders

RB Trent Richardson is in danger of being released by the team. My guess is you are already way ahead of that potential transaction with respect to your fantasy team. Michael Dyer is a name to keep tabs on from the Raiders backfield.

A player intriguing me lately with positive reports out of camp and drastically lower ADP than his rookie teammate is Michael Crabtree.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Sam Bradford is cleared for 11-on-11 drills with no restrictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Martavis Bryant is out 7-10 days for now with an elbow infection. His ADP has risen steadily in recent weeks, likely to the point of him being overvalued. This should slow that down for now.

Further putting the brakes on the Bryant hype train, QB Ben Roethlisberger stated recently Markus Wheaton will start in 2-WR sets opposite Antonio Brown. The fantasy pecking order could still easily be Brown, Bryant, Wheaton, but it gives one pause from being too bullish on Bryant. And maybe Wheaton is worth a late flier here or there.

San Diego Chargers

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is apparently struggling with pass protection, which is no surprise from a rookie and will not help keep him on the field. Happy to have him in dynasty leagues but not that excited about using a 3rd round draft pick in redraft leagues to own him. More can go wrong than right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team named Doug Martin their starting tailback. This is what we expected to materialize from training camp. Hopefully it sticks, and the announcement will push his ADP up for those who have been asleep at the wheel up until now. I’ve been getting him as my third RB in drafts, most recently at the end of the 6th round in this best-ball league.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Carolina Panthers Team Report

July 16, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Carolina Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin proved to be a weapon in the red zone and has the skill set to emerge as one of the league’s Top 10 wide receivers.

Carolina Panthers WR Kelvin Benjamin proved to be a weapon in the red zone and has the skill set to emerge as one of the league’s Top 10 wide receivers.

QB Cam Newton

Four years into his career, it is fair to say that Newton’s development as a passer has not matched his development in the running game. Saddled with one of the worst wide receiver depth charts in the league last season and missing two games to open the season due to an ankle injury, Newton threw for a career-low 3,127 yards in 2014 with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, his fantasy stock should be on the rise heading into 2015. The team’s offensive line performed far better over the second half of last season than at the beginning of the year. Carolina addressed the wide receiver position with the selection of Devin Funchess in the 2nd round of this year’s NFL Draft, as well as by re-signing speed merchant Ted Ginn Jr. And a closer look reveals that Newton’s fantasy production was far better once the condition of his ankle improved. After averaging just 18.1 points per game during his first four games when he ran the ball an average of just 3.5 times, his production increased to 22.8 PPG over his final ten, averaging 8.9 carries for 49.7 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Newton rates as a mid-tier QB1 this season who could emerge as a Top 5 option.

RB Jonathan Stewart

There are certain players that you can make an easy case for as solid fantasy options and that you could also make the case that you shouldn’t have anything to do with them. Meet Jonathan Stewart. The good: Over the Panthers last seven games (including playoffs), he tallied 736 total yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 20.2 touches per game over the Panthers final six games. DeAngelo Williams left town and Stewart’s backups are iffy and/or unproven. The bad: Stewart has missed 20 games over the past three years. If you draft him, you have to get his backup but we don’t know for certain who that will be. He topped 1,000 rushing yards once in seven seasons. He has averaged 10 points per game once. He has caught more than 25 passes in a season once. Cam Newton steals short yardage touchdowns. We’ve given you the good and the bad. With his ADP hovering around 45th overall as the 21st running back taken, Stewart doesn’t come cheaply. We like him, don’t love him, and only support adding him if he is somewhat discounted in your particular draft.

RB Cameron Artis-Payne

With just the aging Mike Tolbert behind Jonathan Stewart at running back due to the offseason release of DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers addressed their need in the backfield by selecting Cameron Artis-Payne in the 5th round of this year’s NFL Draft. The 5’10”, 210 pound Auburn product has decent size and speed and is viewed by the Panthers coaching staff as a viable option to step into the lineup as Stewart’s replacement in the event of an injury. While Artis-Payne lacks the skills to be considered an upper tier dynasty prospect, it doesn’t take a leap of faith to see him having fantasy value in his rookie season. With 20 missed games over the past three seasons, the 28-year old Stewart has hardly been a bastion of good health, and Artis-Payne’s competition consists of undrafted free agents, veteran retreads and the aging Tolbert. That makes him worthy of a late round draft choice in redraft leagues and a mid to lower tier prospect in dynasty formats since we expect the Panthers would use an early round pick to replenish the position in the event of a major injury to Stewart.

RB Mike Tolbert

Approaching his 30th birthday, Tolbert was a bit player in the Panthers offense in 2014 despite injuries that kept Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams out of the lineup for various lengths of time. Limited to eight games due to a knee injury, Tolbert carried the ball just 37 times for 78 yards and failed to find the end zone, although he did score in the playoffs. As a receiver, he added 12 receptions for 93 yards. Even though Williams was released in the offseason, we harbor no expectations that Tolbert will earn a significant role behind Stewart in 2015. Look for rookie Cameron Artis-Payne to emerge as Stewart’s main backup with Tolbert getting the odd short yardage run.

WR Kelvin Benjamin

Taken in the 1st round of last year’s NFL Draft to replace Panthers legend Steve Smith, Kelvin Benjamin didn’t disappoint, topping 1,000 receiving yards and scoring nine touchdowns while catching 73 passes. At 6’5” and 234 pounds, and possessing solid but not outstanding speed, Benjamin proved to be a weapon in the red zone and has the skill set to emerge as one of the league’s Top 10 wide receivers. While Benjamin’s ability to replicate his touchdown count from a year ago isn’t in too much doubt, one area of concern is his completion to target rate as he hauled in exactly half of his targets (73 of 145). Let’s call that nit picking since with no proven wide receiver opposite him, Benjamin should be in line for plenty of targets once again in 2015. If Cam Newton improves his accuracy, Benjamin’s upside is as a mid-tier WR1. Failing that, feel safe grabbing him as an upper tier WR2.

WR Devin Funchess

With it seeming like an eternity has passed since the Panthers have lined up two solid wide receivers in their starting lineup, the team addressed the position in each of the last two drafts with high picks. After selecting Kelvin Benjamin in the 1st round of last year’s NFL Draft, Carolina selected another huge target in the 2nd round this year in Devin Funchess. At 6’5″ and 230 pounds, Funchess is a massive target who possesses decent speed having run a 4.5-40 at his pro day. However, at just 21 years of age and considered a bit of a raw prospect coming out of Michigan, he isn’t likely to be a consistent contributor early in his pro career. And while it’s easy to project Funchess as a solid red zone option, the Panthers already possess a pair of solid red zone options in the form of Benjamin and tight end Greg Olsen. Funchess rates as late round flyer material in redraft formats but we consider him a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats.

WR Jerricho Cotchery

After scoring a whopping 10 touchdowns in 2013, Cotchery found the end zone just once last season even though he caught two more passes. Back in Carolina in 2015, Cotchery’s spot in the starting lineup is going to be handed over to 2nd round pick Devin Funchess at some point this season, and we expect that to happen sooner rather than later. With Cotchery battling the likes of Jarrett Boykin, Ted Ginn Jr., Corey Brown and Stephen Hill to emerge as the Panthers 3rd wide receiver, we aren’t too excited about his fantasy prospects especially considering Carolina’s balanced run-pass ratio.

WR Jarrett Boykin

An undrafted free agent in 2012, Boykin hauled in 49 of his 82 targets for 681 yards and three touchdowns during the 2013 season before being relegated to a bit part in the Packers offense last season. Signed by Carolina in the offseason, he will compete for a backup spot on the Panthers. Since the Packers know a thing or two about developing wide receivers and Carolina used a 1st and a 2nd round pick on the wide receiver position over the last two drafts, we don’t foresee Boykin establishing himself as a fantasy option in 2015.

WR Stephen Hill

A bust as the Jets 2nd round selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, Hill spent the 2014 season buried on the Panthers practice squad and returns this season to compete for a spot on the team’s depth chart at wide receiver. At 6’4″ and 215 pounds with blazing speed, Hill seems to fit the mold of the type of wide receivers that the Panthers prefer, so he has a chance to resurrect his career in Carolina. With a cast of journeymen and unproven younger players, there is a decent chance he earns a roster spot and some playing time in 2015 but he isn’t roster worthy in your fantasy league until he strings together a few solid weeks.

TE Greg Olsen

With a lack of production opposite Kelvin Benjamin at wide receiver and a plethora of injuries at the running back position, Olsen posted the finest season of his eight-year career with career highs in targets with 123, receptions with 84 and yards with 1,008 while scoring six touchdowns. What’s new for 2015? Well, unpolished rookie 2nd round pick Devin Funchess figures to start alongside Benjamin, there is a cast of pretenders at the backup wide receiver positions and DeAngelo Williams left town leaving the injury prone Jonathan Stewart as the team’s only proven running back other than the declining Mike Tolbert. Add it all up and we expect Olsen to once again approach the 1,000 yard receiving mark with between six and eight touchdowns. Feel comfortable grabbing Olsen as either the 3rd or 4th tight end taken in your draft.

Also see: Carolina Panthers IDP Team Report · Atlanta Falcons Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

New York Jets Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

June 19, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

New York Jets Quarterback Geno Smith (7) runs against the Miami Dolphins in the Jets' 20-7 victory at Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida. December 29, 2013; Photographer: Richard C. Lewis/Icon Sportswire

Geno Smith appears to have an early leg up on Michael Vick to open the season as the New York Jets starting quarterback. He’ll need to cut down on the turnovers to keep the job. Photo: Richard C. Lewis

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB G. Smith
8 · 28th
185-330-2,200 11 TD 15 INT
30-225 2 TD
–
188.5
QB M. Vick
9 · 34th
100-180-1,250 7 TD 7 INT
25-110 1 TD
–
107.5
RB C. Johnson
4 · 19th –
215-925 5 TD
40-340 2 TD
168.5
RB C. Ivory
6 · 38th –
160-725 4 TD
2-10 1 TD
103.5
RB B. Powell
NR –
40-150 1 TD
13-100 0 TD
31.0
RB D. Richardson
NR – – – –
WR E. Decker
7 · 40th – –
65-825 5 TD
112.5
WR J. Kerley
NR – –
45-550 2 TD
67.0
WR S. Evans
NR – –
35-375 2 TD
49.5
WR S. Hill
NR – –
30-425 3 TD
60.5
TE J. Amaro
NR – –
30-400 2 TD
52.0
TE J. Cumberland
NR – –
20-250 1 TD
31.0

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Geno Smith

A 2nd round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Smith was handed the starting job after Mark Sanchez was injured in the preseason, and Smith suffered the normal ups and downs most rookie quarterbacks experience. He turned the ball over 25 times (21 interceptions and four lost fumbles), failed to throw for 200 yards in eight games (including one stretch of five straight games) and threw for just 3,046 yards and 12 touchdowns. While Smith sported a respectable PPG average of 17.1, that was topped up by his 366 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. While we could place some emphasis on Smith averaging 23.1 PPG with just two turnovers during his final four games of the season, that production included 186 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Smith will need to show plenty of improvement in terms of his ability to read defenses and pocket awareness to hold onto his job for all 16 games in 2014. Look for Michael Vick to appear under center at some point. That makes Smith waiver wire material.

QB Michael Vick

Although the signals out of Jets camp have been a tad conflicting, it seems that Vick is destined to open the season as Geno Smith’s backup. But it certainly won’t be a surprise if he ends up under center at some point in 2014. Vick’s familiarity with offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s system could be beneficial but his PPG averages have dropped in each of the last three seasons. If he takes the reins and has a good game or two, grab him as a bye week replacement.

RB Chris Johnson

Released in the offseason by the Titans for salary cap reasons, Johnson quickly found a home in the Jets backfield. He is expected to work in a timeshare with Chris Ivory but the workload should be tilted in Johnson’s favor. The fantasy reputation of the RB formally known as CJ2K has taken a hit over the years as he has been inconsistent and not come close to approaching the 2,006 rushing yards he posted in 2009. But perhaps that’s been a bit unfair. A closer look reveals that Johnson has had an outstanding career. He topped 1,000 rushing yards in each of his six seasons, rushed for 7,965 career yards, has 2,003 career receiving yards and 58 touchdowns. And while a much higher percentage of that production came during his first three years in the league than his last three, he still has managed to average double digit fantasy points every year. On the downside, he averaged a career low 3.9 yards per carry in 2013. With Ivory eating into his workload, look for this to be the first year that Johnson fails to top 1,000 rushing yards, but we still like him as a low end RB2 with upside. Keep in mind that he is a slight risk due to surgery in January for a torn meniscus.

RB Chris Ivory

In his first year in New York, Ivory started off slowly, rushing for just 115 yards during his first five games. After that, he played much better, gaining 718 yards and scoring three touchdowns on the ground while averaging 4.85 yards per carry over his next 10 games. Ivory worked in a timeshare with Bilal Powell last season and Powell is expected to surrender that role to Chris Johnson in 2014. Since Johnson is a clear upgrade over Powell, we can make the prediction that Ivory will see fewer touches this coming season. He figures to handle the short yardage work and earn 8-12 carries a game but he offers nothing as a pass catcher with just five receptions during his four years in the league. Ivory rates as a solid handcuff and lower tier RB3.

RB Bilal Powell

While Powell has been a decent option out of the Jets backfield over the last two years, he is expected to see his workload substantially reduced with the free agent signing of Chris Johnson. Powell essentially shared the Jets backfield with Chris Ivory last season, reaching career highs in rushing yards with 697, receptions with 36 and receiving yards with 272. However, with Johnson on board, Powell will see his receiving work reduced to a bare minimum and Ivory is clearly a better short yardage runner. In fact, Powell may need to hold off Rams reject Daryl Richardson just to retain a roster spot.

RB Daryl Richardson

While Richardson was a surprising success story as a rookie 7th round pick in 2012, chalking up 451 rushing yards and 117 receiving yards over the Rams first 11 games of that season, it’s been all downhill since culminating in his release from the St. Louis Rams after the NFL Draft. The Abilene Christian product wore down as his rookie season came to a close, earning just 24 touches over the Rams final five games. In 2013, he opened the season as the Rams starter with the departure of Steven Jackson but a toe injury and his ineffective play caused him to lose his job to Zac Stacy, and a thigh injury caused him to miss the final seven games of the season. Richardson will need to beat out Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell to have any fantasy relevance in 2014.

WR Eric Decker

Let’s go out on a limb and make a couple of predictions. The first is that Decker will be the only Jets wide receiver to have any meaningful fantasy value in 2014. The second is that his production in his first year in New York will take a deep nose dive compared to playing with Peyton Manning. After catching 87 passes for 1,288 yards (both career highs) and 11 touchdowns with Denver in 2013, Decker signed a five-year, $36.3-million contract to join the Jets as their leading receiver. Unfortunately, as we saw in the Super Bowl, Decker is ill-equipped to handle that type of role. Look for the Patriots Darrelle Revis to eat him up during their two matchups this season. That being said, Decker isn’t chopped liver as a wide receiver as his 2,352 yard and 24 touchdowns over the two previous years attests. At 6’3” and 218 pounds with solid speed, he is both a threat in the red zone as well as on deep passes. Unfortunately, it’s a big drop from Manning to Geno Smith or Michael Vick. And that causes a big drop in Decker’s fantasy value. Consider him a WR3 with marginal upside.

WR Stephen Hill

A raw prospect coming out of Georgia Tech as the Jets 2nd round selection in the 2012 NFL Draft, Hill has done little to dispel the notion that he remains a work in progress. In fact, the only reason he will enter training camp penciled in as a starter is because Jeremy Kerley is not a good fit to line up outside and none of the team’s other back up wide receivers are ready to handle the role. And, we suppose, Hill’s upside will give him another opportunity. At 6’4” and 215 pounds with blazing speed, Hill is an athletic marvel but his hands, grasp of the playbook and route running leave plenty to be desired. He isn’t worth grabbing on draft day but is worth holding onto in dynasty formats.

WR Jeremy Kerley

We’ll put a ten spot down that Kerley will never match his production from 2012 when he caught 56 of 95 targets for 827 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The former 5th round pick took advantage of a Santonio Holmes injury and Stephen Hill’s lack of readiness to load up his target count that season and barring injuries, he will never see that many targets again. While all this might sound a tad harsh, the simple fact is that Kerley is a quintessential slot receiver, lacking the size and explosiveness to play outside, in a Jets offense that lacks upside. It’s not that he’s a bad football player. It’s just that he doesn’t have much fantasy appeal.

WR Jalen Saunders, WR Shaquelle Evans and WR Quincy Enunwa

With a suspect depth chart at wide receiver, the Jets used a pair of 4th round picks to acquire Saunders and Evans and then grabbed Enunwa in the 6th round of this year’s NFL Draft. Saunders lacks size and will challenge Jeremy Kerley for the team’s slot receiver role. Evans and Enunwa are potential replacements for the disappointing Stephen Hill but neither is expected to contribute much in 2014.

TE Jace Amaro

The Jets finally addressed the tight end position in a meaningful way, using a 2nd round pick to acquire Texas Tech’s Jace Amaro. Amaro was highly productive in college playing in a fast paced, quick strike offense but New York runs a completely different type of scheme under Marty Mornhinweg. The 6’5”, 265 pound Amaro will need to improve as a run blocker to lock down the starting position from Jeff Cumberland. Since we see a time share on the horizon, Amaro isn’t worth drafting in redraft formats although he does rate as a solid prospect in dynasty formats.

TE Jeff Cumberland

The Jets gave off conflicting signals with regards to Cumberland in the offseason, signing him to a three-year contract extension and then using a 2nd round pick on Jace Amaro. Amaro is clearly the future at the position for the Jets and we predict that Cumberland was signed for his blocking prowess, an area Amaro will need to learn in the pros.

Also see: Buffalo Bills | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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