DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

March 3, 2019 By Chris Spencer 2 Comments

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

  • I pick from the 10th slot. You can follow along checking the online draft board.
  • I set up Draft Buddy choosing the ATC projections. Ariel Cohen’s approach is the way I would compile average projections if I did them.
  • I refer to my Target Percentages philosophy / method in this draft recap.

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
deGrom 16% 0% 17% 3.25 2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name G R HR RBI SB AVG
w/o Harper (prorated) 151 99 17 69 39 0.267
ATC Projection 151 98 19 73 43 0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Stanton 14% 9% 11% 3% 0.25
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Goldschmidt 11% 9% 10% 7% 2.00
Machado 12% 8% 10% 8% 1.75
Blackmon 9% 10% 7% 7% 2.75
Benintendi 6% 9% 8% 15% 1.75
Merrifield 4% 8% 7% 27% 1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
K.Davis 14% 9% 11% 1% -1.25
Rizzo 10% 8% 10% 4% 1.25
Bellinger 11% 8% 9% 9% 0.00
Hoskins 13% 9% 10% 3% -0.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Rendon 9% 8% 9% 3% 2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP) HR R RBI SB AVG
Marte (37) 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Villar (82) 5% 6% 5% 31% -0.25
M.Smith (99) 2% 7% 4% 30% 0.75
D.Gordon (109) 1% 7% 4% 28% 1.00
Hamilton (164) 1% 6% 3% 29% -1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75
Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
New Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50
Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
New Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Previous Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25
Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75
Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
New Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75
Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
New Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25
Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
New Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy

12-Team Roto Draft Recap From 7th Pick Starts Scherzer, Votto

March 30, 2018 By avanfossan 1 Comment

Joey Votto

Writer Andy Vanfossan made sure he got an ace drafting Max Scherzer in the 1st round, but followed up with a solid offensive contributor in Cincinnati Reds 1B Joey Votto.

The weekend of March 24-25th was officially, or unofficially, national fantasy baseball draft weekend. Millions of fantasy players from all areas of the country met at homes, bars, restaurants or anywhere else 12-16 grown adults could congregate in front of laptops, phones, and cheat sheets to pick the greatest make-believe team they could.

This author was a proud participant. We have a 12-team 5×5 league with the standard categories except one, in pitching, that is always a bone of contention – complete games instead of WHIP. This has been a hot-button topic since I joined the league ten years ago. It hasn’t changed but it really makes owners think about their pitching picks.

I had the 7th pick overall and after much time spent doing mock drafts, referencing Draft Buddy and other resources and, dare I say, some soul searching, I decided to go with Max Scherzer. I went with this pick for a couple of reasons. For one, I wanted a stud pitcher out of the gate. I was looking for somebody who would get me K, a sub 3.00 ERA and wins. With Schrezer in the National League East, I figured this would be the best option for me. Clayton Kershaw went 4th overall.

For my next pick, I needed a hitter. I was torn between the best player available or the 6th best outfielder. By the way, Bryce Harper went 11th. I wouldn’t say I “settled” but I did draft Joey Votto. I couldn’t pass up the projected .320 average, 36 home runs and 100 plus RBI. There may have been a couple players with a tick more home runs but none of them will hit .320 like Votto will.

I was extremely happy with my third through fifth picks – Josh Donaldson, Starling Marte and Edwin Encarnacion. Donaldson and Marte come with a few injury risks but the upside for both of them was too much to pass up. Donaldson is in his walk year and has finished in the Top 10 of MVP voting four of the past five years. Last year, he was hurt the first part of the year but finished on a huge hot streak. I fully expect this to continue if he stays healthy, a caveat for many players.

Marte was a wildcard. As a Minnesota Twins fan, I really wanted to take Byron Buxton in the 4th round but I’m still not sold on his overall offense. Yes, he did have a solid if not great second half last year but it’s a pretty small sample size to consider taking him in the fourth round. Marte should get me double digit home runs as well as stolen bases. He will be counted on to produce for a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that should be decent but by no means elite.

Encarnacion was a luxury pick. We have an infield spot or utility spot and I decided to add more power. I drafted Encarnacion the past three seasons and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s not going to steal bases but you can pen in 110 RBI and at least 35 home runs. With the protection of his lineup, and the AL Central division, he will put up huge numbers.

Rounds six through eleven I nailed down two closers – Felipe Rivero and Jeurys Familia in the 7th and 10th rounds, two starting pitchers – Aaron Nola in the 6th and Jake Arrieta in the 11th – along with my second outfielder, Domingo Santana. Looking back on it, I probably should not have taken two Phillie pitchers but I like their upside. Nola will learn from Arrieta and Arrieta’s numbers at Citizen Bank Park are solid.

Rivero and Familia aren’t household closer names but each will get me saves. And I didn’t need to reach to get them. Like a good friend of mine always says, when drafting closers on bad teams, someone has to close those games out. Might as well get me some saves in the process.

Santana was the best available outfielder. I liked his power and speed and he is projected to hit anywhere from 26-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs. He also is projected double digit stolen bases, which is a plus. The downside is he’s no higher than a .265 average and has a tendency to strike out. I guess I could say I took a chance drafting him with the outfield situation in Milwaukee. I do think with his power and speed, they’ll find a place for him in the everyday lineup.

Without going into detail on every pick, I’ll end with what I thought were the best two late round picks on my team. I snagged Aaron Sanchez in the 16th round and Addison Reed in the 21st and final round. Taking two pitchers who are kind of in limbo is a high risk-high reward play. Sanchez has a history of blister issues. Jays Journal blog indicates, “Sanchez may be the biggest key to the Blue Jays’ playoff aspirations in 2018”. If he is healthy and can maneuver through the tough AL East, he is a steal in the 16th round.

Reed is another high risk-high reward pick. With the Twins signing Fernando Rodney, they are banking on the 41 year old closing games in 2018. Rodney’s track record though of starting out slow may give Reed a chance at closing games. With the Twins in win now mode, I think the leash on Rodney will be short and Paul Molitor will be ready to turn over the opportunities to Reed sooner rather than later.

So, there it is. A somewhat comprehensive look at my draft. The 7th pick wasn’t ideal but I thought I got some good value and am strong in the places where there wasn’t a lot of depth. As Chris notes, but I will reiterate it here: just because the draft is over and went well, there is still a lot of work to be done. Very true, let the games begin.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats

Copyright © 2020 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy