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St. Louis Rams Team Report

August 3, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Do the St. Louis Rams know how to draft running backs? Their recent track record says no, but is Todd Gurley a can't miss prospect that is going to buck that trend?

Do the St. Louis Rams know how to draft running backs? Their recent track record says no, but is Todd Gurley a can’t miss prospect that is going to buck that trend?

QB Nick Foles

Coming off a breakout season in 2013 when he threw for 2,891 yards with 27 touchdowns and two interceptions in what amounted to less than 11 full games, Nick Foles was a fantasy darling heading into last season. Although a dropoff was to be expected from his 2013 production, Foles disappointed as he threw for just 2,163 yards with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in eight games as he was unable to remain healthy. The interceptions were clearly a problem for Foles but his completion percentage also dropped from 64.8% to 59.8% and his accuracy on deep balls was noticeably reduced. That was enough for Eagles coach Chip Kelly, who shipped Foles to the Rams as part of a package to acquire Sam Bradford. In St. Louis Foles will lead a Rams offense that has struggled for years and lacks the receiving talent Foles worked with in Philadelphia, and also lacks the talent on the offensive line that the Eagles have. While there is a chance that Foles rediscovers his accuracy and big play ability, the Rams lack of proven weaponry at wide receiver and their poor offensive line limit his fantasy upside making him a low end QB2.

RB Todd Gurley

Desperate for help along the offensive line and lacking a true number one wide receiver as well as a franchise quarterback, the Rams instead selected Todd Gurley with the 10th pick in this year’s draft. This, despite selecting Tre Mason with an early 3rd round pick last year and Zac Stacy in the 5th round the year before. Don’t even get me started about the Rams taking Isiah Pead in the 2nd round of the 2012 draft. Gurley is the first running back selected in the 1st round since the 2012 NFL Draft when Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and David Wilson were rookies. It is highly questionable to believe this Rams administration knows how to draft running backs.

A 6’1”, 222 pound Georgia product, Gurley enjoyed a prolific collegiate career, rushing for over 3,000 yards, showcasing solid receiving skills and finding the end zone over 40 times. One highlight is all it takes to see that Gurley is a special player. However, he is coming off a torn ACL and joins a Rams team with an offensive coordinator with no NFL experience in that role in Frank Cignetti, lacks offensive talent, has major issues along the offensive line (will likely start two rookies and has a trio of unproven players fighting to start at center) and which scored 20 or more points in only half of their games last season. Initial reports are that Gurley will be on the Rams opening day roster. However, we have no idea when or if he will regain full health in 2015 or when or if he will supplant Mason in the starting lineup. While Gurley has the potential to emerge as one of the top running backs in the league playing for a coaching staff that wants to run the ball heavily, he is a risk at his current ADP as the 24th running back taken in fantasy drafts. He does rate as the top dynasty prospect at the position, however.

RB Tre Mason

Supposedly drafted to be the Rams running back of the future after being taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, Mason didn’t disappoint as a rookie, gaining 765 rushing yards, 146 receiving yards and scoring five touchdowns while averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per carry behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. Did we mention that Mason failed to get a single touch during the first four games of the year? As impressive as Mason was, the Rams didn’t view him as a feature back, choosing to select Todd Gurley with the 10th pick in this year’s draft. While that killed Mason’s value in dynasty leagues, he still figures to have value in redraft formats in 2015 since Gurley isn’t likely to be fully healthy early in the season. Look for Mason to start enough games early in the year to approach 800-900 total yards with 4-5 touchdowns. He rates as an upper tier RB4 since he won’t likely have much value during the second half of the season.

RB Benny Cunningham

After emerging as a reasonably productive backup during the 2013 season, Cunningham watched as the Rams drafted Tre Mason in the 3rd round of last year’s draft. In 2014, Cunningham pushed Zac Stacy aside to finish the season as Mason’s main backup. Then St. Louis drafted Todd Gurley in the 1st round of this year’s draft. The Rams don’t believe in Cunningham and, with a pair of highly drafted young players ahead of him on the depth chart, neither should you.

WR Brian Quick

Taken with the 2nd pick of the 2nd round in the 2012 draft, Quick was a huge disappointment during his first two years in the league but the light seemed to come on early in 2014. During his first four games of the year, Quick hauled in 21 of his 31 targets for 322 yards and three touchdowns. After a pair of middling performances in Weeks 5 and 6, he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury that ended any thoughts of a 3rd year breakout season. However, he was on pace to approach 1,000 receiving yards with eight touchdowns after Week 6 and he is expected to open 2015 in the starting lineup as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. While we aren’t about to predict a breakout campaign given the Rams expected struggles on offense as well as a wide receiver depth chart that runs four deep, Quick is definitely worth taking a flyer on in fantasy drafts this summer provided he is fully recovered from shoulder surgery.

WR Kenny Britt

Coming off the worst season of his five-year career in 2013, having caught just 11 of his 35 targets for 96 yards, Britt was signed to a one-year, prove it contract with the Rams for the 2014 season. Sure enough, he resurrected his career in St. Louis, catching a career-high 48 passes for 748 yards and three touchdowns despite playing in an offense that regularly had difficulty moving the football. Given his level of play, Britt would have enjoyed an even stronger bounce back campaign playing in a stronger offense with better quarterback play. Signed to a two-year contract to remain in St. Louis, Britt will enter training camp as a starter but will have to hold off the likes of Brian Quick, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin to remain the Rams leading wide receiver. With the Rams expected to run the ball heavily, look for Britt to stay in the starting lineup given his size. However, we don’t expect his target count from a year ago (just 84) to increase significantly given that Quick missed significant time last season. Just 26 on opening day, Britt rates as a WR4 in 2015, although a bit of an intriguing one who could surprise.

WR Stedman Bailey

When given a chance to produce, Bailey hasn’t disappointed. The 5’10” and 195 pound West Virginia product hauled in 15 of his 22 targets for 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns over the final five games of his rookie season in 2013 when given an expanded role in the Rams offense. Over the final six games of last season, Bailey caught 22 of his 32 targets for 371 yards and one touchdown. Which begs the question – is Bailey worthy of more playng time or do the Rams view him as a capable backup whose playing time is dependent on injuries to those ahead of him on the depth chart? In 2015, Bailey faces an uphill climb to unseat Brian Quick and Kenny Britt in the starting lineup with Tavon Austin likely to work mainly out of the slot. Since Britt has a history of off the field issues and Quick is returning from a major shoulder injury, it wouldn’t exactly rate as a surprise if Bailey winds up in the starting lineup at some point and produces. Nonetheless, right now he is waiver wire material in redraft formats and is a middling dynasty prospect.

WR Tavon Austin

Entering his third year in the league, the fantasy community seems to have given up on Austin. And it’s hard to arrive at any other conclusion based on his production and usage during his first two years in the league. Taken with the 8th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, Austin has failed to carve out a meaningful role in the Rams offense. Or did former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer fail to devise a playbook that put Austin in a position to succeed? With Frank Cignetti taking over for Schottenheimer, at least there is some faint hope that Austin can emerge as a consistent contributor in a Rams offense desperate for playmaking ability. While he is unlikely to start or play on two wide receiver packages, Austin has the tools to contribute as a slot receiver, occasional threat on deep passes and as a runner out of the backfield. The key for his fantasy prospects is Cignetti’s willingness to get him enough touches. And with Austin having amassed just 660 receiving yards and 375 rushing yards with three touchdowns in two years, we don’t see enough evidence to expect that to happen. That makes Austin waiver wire material in redraft formats and nothing more than a slot pull in dynasty formats.

WR Chris Givens

Givens used his blazing speed to haul in 42 passes for 698 yards and three touchdowns during his rookie season in 2012 but his career has gone downhill since then. The former 3rd round pick barely topped 500 receiving yards in his 2nd season but failed to find the end zone before falling further down the depth chart last season, catching 11 passes for 159 yards and a touchdown. In fact, Givens may not even have a roster spot heading into training camp if not for the Rams having failed to develop any other potential big play threats on their roster. While Givens has a chance of being on the unemployment line on opening day, he also has a chance to emerge as a big play threat for St. Louis although those odds are slim.

TE Jared Cook

Two years into his career with the Rams, it’s fair to say that Cook hasn’t produced as the team envisioned when they signed him to a five-year, $35.1-million contract prior to the 2013 season. After catching 51 passes for 671 yards and five touchdowns during his first year in St. Louis, Cook wasn’t much better last season, hauling in just 52 of his 98 targets for 634 yards and three touchdowns. While the Rams have replaced the unimaginative Brian Schottenheimer with Frank Cignetti at offensive coordinator, you would be hard pressed to find many who will predict a breakout season for Cook in 2015 in his seventh year in the league. While he has the talent to produce such a season, his inconsistency (just six games with more than 60 yards during his two years in St. Louis) is just too hard to overlook. Cook rates as a lower tier TE2.

Also see: St. Louis Rams IDP Team Report · Arizona Cardinals Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

St. Louis Rams IDP Team Report

August 3, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

The St. Louis Rams may still be in the midst of a seemingly endless rebuild, but there are glimmers of hope in the Gateway City. That’s especially true for IDP owners, as the Rams feature plenty of fantasy-relevant talent at all three levels of the defense.

Defensive Linemen

That talent starts with fifth-year defensive end Robert Quinn, who hit double-digits in sacks in 2014 for the third consecutive season. Granted, Quinn’s 10.5 sacks last year were a far cry from the 19 he tallied the year before, and Quinn got off to an awful start last year. However, even though Quinn didn’t notch his first sack last year until Week 7 he still finished the season inside the top five at his position – which is exactly where he begins the 2015 campaign.

2014 wasn’t as kind to batterymate Chris Long, who posted only five tackles and a single sack over six games. The 30-year-old hasn’t posted double-digit sacks since 2012 and faces an uncertain future in St. Louis after this year, and Long’s tackle production has never been great. However, assuming he’s healthy the veteran could be a nice late value as fantasy depth on the defensive front.

The Rams’ line also boasts the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year in Aaron Donald, who Greg Gabriel of the National Football Post believes is already among the NFL’s best defensive tackles. “At 6’1 – 285,” Gabriel said, “Donald isn’t your prototypical NFL defensive lineman, but he is a special player with some special traits. He has rare initial quickness, play speed, explosiveness, and power, to go along with top instincts. This allows him to make numerous plays, even though he constantly gives up size to his opponent.”

Donald is also among the top tackles in IDP, and a viable DL2 in mixed formats.

Linebackers

As Nick Wagoner of ESPN wrote, linebacker Alec Ogletree has shown flashes of dominant talent in his two NFL seasons – mixed with moments of mediocrity. “Ogletree has had moments of brilliance,” Wagoner said, “occasionally looking like a perennial Pro Bowler waiting to happen. He’s also had moments where he’s looked lost, leading to big plays for the opposition.”

As one might expect, that inconsistency can lead to more than a bit of weekly IDP variance. There are weeks where Ogletree can carry a defensive fantasy squad. However, there will also likely be a week or two where you look at the box score and wonder if the low-end IDP LB1 even suited up.

In many respects, veteran James Laurinaitis is the flip side of the same coin. The 28-year-old may not have Ogletree’s sky-high athleticism or fantasy upside, but the next time the seventh-year pro fails to hit 100 total tackles in a season will be the first time. Laurinaitis’ days as an IDP LB1 may be done, but the “Son of Animal” remains at the very least a strong choice as a second fantasy linebacker.

Defensive Backs

In the opinion of Myles Simmons of the Rams’ website, safety T.J. McDonald could be on the verge of joining the league’s elite at the position after topping 100 tackles a season ago. “Strong safety T.J. McDonald has made steady progress throughout his first two pro seasons,” Simmons said. “Known for his hard-hitting style, last year McDonald led the secondary with 136 tackles and made an impact on special teams by recording both a blocked punt and blocked field goal against Tampa Bay.”

Those tackle stats are team-inflated (the NFL credited McDonald with 105), but McDonald’s top-12 IDP finish and top-five numbers from Week 10 on last season are no exaggeration. The 24-year-old is in the low-end DB1 conversation.

Also see: St. Louis Rams Team Report · Arizona Cardinals IDP Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

DFS Fantasy Football Recommendations – Week 15: Le’Veon Bell Joins Elite Company, Faces Falcons This Week

December 10, 2014 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell (26) plows his way through for a Steelers touchdown. The Pittsburgh Steelers are leading the Cleveland Browns 14-0 at the end of the half. December 29, 2013; Photographer: Brian Kunst/Zumapress/Icon Sportswire

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell joins Walter Payton (!) as the only running backs to have over 200 combined yards in back-to-back weeks. Bell faces the Atlanta Falcons this week. Back-to-back-to-back on tap? Photo: Icon Sportswire

Last week, NFL Week 14, was typically the first week of fantasy football playoffs for traditional fantasy leagues. Whether you didn’t qualify for the playoffs at all, got knocked out due to no-shows from Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham, or moved on to the next round thanks to performances by the likes of Matt Ryan, Le’Veon Bell, DeMarco Murray and Julio Jones, Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is indifferent. It is a fresh start every week. Lets identify some good plays for Week 15.

Quarterback

Elite, Expensive: Tom Brady, NE (Week 15 vs Miami)
Brady is returning home after two big time road games. He takes on a Miami team that pulled off an upset Week 1. Don’t think that Bill Belichick or Brady have forgotten about that game. I expect this game to be a demonstration of dominance by New England over its division foe.

Middle of the Road: Matt Ryan, ATL (Week 15 vs Pittsburgh)
After getting down early in Week 14, Ryan stormed back against the Green Bay Packers to make it a competitive game. He finished with 375 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and 23 rushing yards. Coming home and, shockingly, looking to stay atop the division (at 5-8), expect Ryan to have another great game.

Cheap, High Upside: Mark Sanchez, PHI (Week 15 vs Dallas)
This is a repeat game of two weeks ago except Philadelphia now welcomes Dallas into their building. Philadelphia is 6-1 at home (with that one loss coming in Week 14 to Seattle). This game has big playoff implications on the line for both teams, so each side will be pulling out all of the stops. Expect a high scoring game, and lots of points for Sanchez.

Running Backs

Elite, Expensive: Le’Veon Bell, PIT (Week 15 @ Atlanta)
With his Week 13 and 14 performances, Bell joins Walter Payton as the only running backs to have over 200 combined yards in back-to-back weeks. Bell has also taken over as the best running back in fantasy football this year. He now gets to run against the worst run defense. He is a must start.

Middle of the Road: Justin Forsett, BAL (Week 15 vs Jacksonville)
Forsett has probably earned the, “best waiver wire acquisition” title of the year in many fantasy football leagues. He ranks among the top 10 running backs in standard scoring leagues. Jacksonville is among the top five worst run defenses in the league. Forsett will continue to feast this week.

Cheap, High Upside: Mark Ingram, NO (Week 15 @ Chicago)
The Chicago Bears just allowed 179 rushing years to DeMarco Murray in Week 14. They have been gashed by the run the last two weeks. Ingram should find open lanes and plenty of running room. He is a must start at his price.

Wide Receivers

Elite, Expensive: Antonio Brown, PIT (Week 15 @ Atlanta)
Just like Brown’s teammate Le’Veon Bell, Brown leads all wide receivers in fantasy football. Atlanta just allowed Green Bay’s number one receiver, Jordy Nelson, to post 146 yards and two touchdowns. I expect Brown to post similar numbers in Week 15. Pay up for the man.

Middle of the Road: T.Y. Hilton, IND (Week 15 vs Houston)
Hilton has emerged as an elite wide receiver this year. His five career stat lines versus Houston Texans are as follows: 9 catches-223 yards-1 touchdown, 8-78-0, 7-121-3, 4-111-1, and 3-78-1. He is in store for another huge week. Start him.

Cheap, High Upside: Malcom Floyd, SD (Week 15 vs Denver)
Floyd led the Chargers in receiving yards and touchdowns in Week 14. He has developed a good chemistry with quarterback Phillip Rivers over the past few weeks. In Week 15, the Chargers will need all their weapons firing to top Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. Floyd could be in for a good game.

Tight Ends

Elite, Expensive: Jimmy Graham, NO (Week 15 @ Chicago)
Graham is in a slump. He may be battling a shoulder injury, but that isn’t stopping quarterback Drew Brees from targeting him. In Week 15, Graham will face the most generous defense for tight ends. I expect him to bounce back in a major way as the Saints fight for a playoff spot. If you are going to pay for a tight end, get Graham this week.

Middle of the Road: Jordan Cameron, CLE (Week 15 vs Cincinnati)
Cleveland is a mess right now and let a win escape them in Week 14 over the Indianapolis Colts. For Week 15, Johnny Manziel will be the new starting quarterback for the Browns. With this change, he might provide a much needed spark for the team. Manziel may look Cameron’s way as a safety valve until he is comfortable as rookie quarterbacks tend to favor large, athletic tight ends. Cameron could be a sneaky play this week.

Cheap, High Upside: Dwayne Allen, IND (Week 15 vs Houston)
Prior to going out due to injury, Allen was a hot, productive tight end for the Colts. He returned in Week 14, but didn’t see much production. In Week 15, he should be back to 100% and ready to roll. At his price, he might be a steal in DFS leagues.

Defenses

St. Louis Rams (Week 15 vs Arizona)
Since quarterback Carson Palmer went down, Arizona hasn’t been able to muster up much offense. St. Louis have back-to-back shut outs over Oakland and Washington. They will look for a third straight and have a good chance of getting it.

Seattle Seahawks (Week 15 vs San Francisco)
The Seattle defense looks to have found their old ways as they have been shutting down opponents. Week 15 brings the pitiful 49ers offense to Seattle. I expect a repeat of what we saw Thanksgiving night, which was Seattle dominance.

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football

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