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Players to Target for 2014 Fantasy Football Drafts

August 12, 2014 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

In a roundtable format Dave, Tony, Tim and Mike tell us what players you should target in 2014 fantasy football drafts, including Arizona Cardinals WR Michael Floyd, Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Green Bay Packers WR Jordy Nelson and Houston Texans RB Arian Foster. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Our website contributors – Dave Stringer, Anthony Fashoda, Tim Grinstead (who does more in-season writing at Fantasy Throwdown) and yours truly – each came up with our own top players to target and players to avoid lists for fantasy football, from which I summarized into two articles. This is our consensus Players To Target.

[August 14th update, here is the accompanying Players To Avoid.]

The categories are straight forward, as the players are organized into 4 Vote, 3 Vote, 2 Vote groups, plus some select honorable mentions that only received 1 Vote each. Most of the players listed are relative to their current average draft position, so keep that in mind as ADP can change between now and draft day for players, or be subject to local bias by your fellow fantasy owners.

4 Votes

Nary a one! With only four of us and a simple guideline to pick ten names from all significant players for the 2014 fantasy football season to choose from, perhaps this isn’t very surprising.

3 Votes

Michael Floyd (Dave, Tony, Mike)

From Dave, Floyd is currently being drafted as the 20th to 23rd wide receiver behind the likes of Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson and Cordarelle Patterson. He’s better than all of them and several other players ahead of him. Perhaps the best current value at WR based on ADP. I’ll add that I felt back in May when Dave and I discussed our initial rankings that Floyd’s ADP would rise closer to the season, but it is still at a comfortable level for an excellent return on your investment.

Jordy Nelson (Dave, Tony, Tim)

Dave has no qualms getting the Green Bay Packers top wideout and Aaron Rodgers‘ favorite player to throw to with a late 2nd round pick. Tim makes a great point that with James Jones and Jermichael Finley out of the picture, Nelson will see more targets than in the past. Tony thinks it is possible Nelson joins Top 5 WR discussion (no word yet on who falls out of the mix, however).

Philip Rivers (Dave, Tim, Mike)

Tim tells us Rivers was the number three rated overall passer by Pro Football Focus, and ranked first in accuracy last season. He tossed 32 TD and only 11 INT with no real superstars. Dave echoed Tim’s thoughts saying Rivers was a top five quarterback in almost all formats last season but is only the 14th quarterback off the board currently with a late 9th round pick. I’ll add, I continue to expect big things from Keenan Allen, and more than a few fantasy experts think Ladarius Green breaks out this year. Rivers supporting cast is improved, if anything.

2 Votes

Arian Foster (Dave, Tim)

This selection is our most controversial. As you’ll see in our forthcoming Players to Avoid article, Foster also received two votes there from Tony and myself. The pro-Foster camp, Dave and Tim, can’t believe this former super stud turns into a fantasy chump in one year. Their eyes light up forecasting the number of touches Foster is in line for in 2014, and they say he represents solid value in the middle of the 2nd round.

Matt Ryan (Dave, Mike)

Even saying good bye to Tony Gonzalez this year, a big welcome back to Julio Jones gives Matt Ryan one of the best WR duos in the league, plus decent third and fourth receiving options between Harry Douglas and the running backs. He’s in his prime and being drafted as about the 9th quarterback off the board, which is his floor. Great value when playing the waiting game at quarterback.

Andy Dalton (Dave, Tim)

Everybody’s favorite whipping boy was top five in most formats last season but is currently the 17th quarterback drafted, which is just too low given his weapons. When nearly every fantasy expert far and wide bashes a player, that is usually a good opportunity he’s going to exceed expectations.

Dennis Pitta (Tim, Tony)

Tim says Pitta was emerging as a top tier tight end before going down to injury last season, and he could easily fill the void that Anquan Boldin left in this offense when he departed. Tony adds that new OC Gary Kubiak relies heavily on his tight ends, and Pitta should be a primary target for Joe Flacco, especially with Ray Rice suspended two games.

Zach Ertz (Tony, Mike)

Ertz is a huge, athletic target that started coming on late last season, on a team that will run a ton of plays. Ertz and Brent Celek combined for 68-971, 10 TD last season, and now it is Ertz’s show to grab the majority of that output.

Honorable Mention (1 Vote)

Jimmy Graham (Dave)

New Orleans Saints have lots of potential at wide receiver but most of it is unproven and Marques Colston seems to be slowing down. Even if his touchdowns regress slightly, he’s still in line for lots of targets in 2014, and he gives owners a major advantage at tight end.

Dwayne Bowe (Dave)

Bowe got paid and promptly wet the bed last season but is definitely worth the gamble as the 40th ranked wide receiver based on his current ADP. There is not much competition for targets in Kansas City.

Andre Ellington (Tim)

According to Pro Football Focus, Ellington gained 47.9% of his yardage on runs over 15 yards (highest in the league), showing his breakaway ability. Add to that the 4th best elusiveness score and a top 15 all position 0.32 fantasy points/per snap, this kid has tons of big play ability. With good hands and promise of an increased workload, Ellington can pay big dividends.

Rashad Jennings (Tim)

Jennings had 2.8 yards after contact per attempt, ranking him 3rd in league, and was top 10 in breakaway percentage. He has power and speed, and David Wilson is gone. The New York Giants have done well with powerful runners with speed during Tom Coughlin’s reign. At his moderate to low ADP Jennings represents very positive risk-reward.

Shane Vereen (Tony)

Given the uncertainty surrounding the New England Patriots receiving corps, with or without Rob Gronkowski in the mix, Shane Vereen is going to catch a lot of passes. He accumulated 69 total targets and caught eight or more passes four times in only eight regular season games played last season. If Stevan Ridley struggles, which is a given, expect Vereen to take some of his workload, too.

Terrance Williams (Tony)

Williams had a strong rookie campaign and Miles Austin is out the door. New OC Scott Linehan loves the passing game, and with the Cowboys defense looking potentially record breaking bad, Dallas will be forced to pass a ton. The catches can’t all go to Dez Bryant and a trending downward Jason Witten.

Eddie Lacy (Mike)

Those following our rankings know I recently pushed Eddie Lacy into our top tier at running back amongst the big four. He deserves it. There are nothing but glowing reports out of Green Bay on Lacy, and while the Packers shifted to more run focus with Aaron Rodgers sidelined last year, they clearly love what this kid brings to the table. He’ll have even more opportunity to bolster his fantasy scoring with opposing defenses threatened by the Rodgers-led passing game.

Emmanuel Sanders (Mike)

Even if Peyton Manning regresses to a normal Peyton Manning season, there is no doubt I want a piece of this offense on my fantasy team. Across the board it is really expensive to acquire however, except Sanders. I honestly didn’t think much of Sanders in Pittsburgh, but the impression I’m getting from media reports out of Denver is the Broncos are going to prove they were right acquiring this guy. Considering the players getting drafted around Sanders, there is a ton of available upside here.

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers

February 14, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

The great thing about fantasy baseball is everyone has an opinion. The culmination of those opinions at this time of year often boils down to player rankings and projections. If we all had the same expectations for players going into the season, it would sure make the draft and all the pre-draft prep a lot less interesting. Let’s all just Yahoo! auto-draft and be done with it.

Luckily, that isn’t the way it is, and why at DraftBuddy.com we have our very own set of detailed player projections, plus the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom ranking and draft tools, loaded with those projections. Not that you can’t edit the projections or import other projections into the Compiler. You know, because you have your own opinion.

Right now we’re talking about the official DraftBuddy.com projections though, and why some players are projected higher or lower than consensus. Hey, everyone has an opinion, right? The important thing is the projector has his or her reasons for projecting these players a certain way.

That is what this article is about. Last time we identified and discussed some hitters of interest. Now let’s take a look at some pitchers who are projected outside the norm according to the majority of fantasy baseball players.

Did Josh Beckett really post a 5.78 ERA and only win six games in 2010? Yes he did. But don’t worry, he will be back. Injuries caused most of Beckett’s problems last year. He was largely ineffective down the stretch and his velocity was down a bit, leading one to wonder if he was completely healthy when he returned to the mound.

His peripherals suggest that it was more bad luck than bad pitching. Beckett is going in the twelfth round (14-team league) according to his Average Draft Position (ADP) at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so take advantage and grab him shortly before that. We all know how good this guy really is when healthy.

Jake Peavy is another pitcher who has battled injuries recently. Despite going to the American League and playing home games in one of the worst pitchers parks in baseball, Peavy is still a stud you can slot into your rotation and start with confidence most every week. Although he is still rehabbing from shoulder surgery that shut him down for the season last July, he is expected to return in the month of April if not Opening Day.

There’s no reason this guy should be going in the 23rd round at MDC, so grab him before someone else can reap those rewards. He’s not pitching at PetCo Park any longer, so the stats will take a bit of a hit as they did the first half of last season, but Peavy is definitely worth a mid-teen pick.

Daisuke Matsuzaka isn’t receiving the love he did in his first few seasons in the States. He was a much-ballyhooed Japanese hero who cost the Boston Red Sox $51 million just for the right to negotiate with him. Dice-K won 33 games in his first two seasons but hasn’t reached ten in either of the last two. What gives?

His peripherals are all over the place, but there doesn’t seem to be one thing that leads you to believe Dice-K has lost anything. His run support in the last few years has dropped off, leading to a worse record. Assuming the Red Sox’ offense can stay healthy this season, Matsuzaka should get plenty of runs to pick up a dozen or so wins again. Considering he is practically undrafted in many leagues (he isn’t in the top 350 of the latest ADP report), he should provide good ratios, strikeouts and wins. Consider him as an end-game flier, or an early season waiver wire add.

Brandon Webb was one of the most feared pitchers in baseball just a few years ago. He won at least 14 games for four straight seasons, culminating with 22 wins in 2008. But a shoulder injury derailed his 2009 and 2010 seasons and led to the Diamondbacks to show him the door. He signed in Texas, where the hot summer seems to make the ball jump out of the park. Webb does not have a history of giving up gopher balls though, so this shouldn’t be a problem. With a good offense backing him, Webb should be a great pickup well before his 21st round ADP.

Francisco Liriano is a player to be wary of. In his first two seasons with the Twins, he was dominant. His strikeout ratio was more than ten per game and his walk ratio was less than three. He missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 with an elbow injury and struggled for the next year and half with control. Though his strikeout ratio isn’t quite back to pre-injury level, the walks are down but overall, his dominance is also down. Is he back to a top starter level? Let someone else take that risk. Since he’s going in the sixth round at MDC, it would be smarter to go with a more sure thing.

Trevor Cahill had a great 2010. He went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But when we look a little closer, we see that he did it with a lot of smoke and mirrors. He had a completely unsustainable .236 BABIP and only strikes out 5.40 batters per nine innings. His walk rate was 2.88 per nine, but that is lower than his minor league levels, meaning he is unlikely to remain on that plane. He is still expected to have a solid season and 14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA is projected, but I’d let someone else have him if he goes in the seventh round like his is doing on average at MDC.

Wandy Rodriguez is being drafted in the ninth round according to his ADP. Really? Why? No one knows. He is a nice pitcher for an abysmal team. He’ll probably pick up 185 strikeouts and put up an ERA around 3.33, but expecting double digit wins from him is asking a lot. The Astros offense is anemic and their bullpen is a powder keg waiting to blow. Picking up a guy on a solid team with a better chance at 15 wins is a better use of a draft pick needed to acquire Rodriguez.

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Hitters

February 14, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Pitchers and catchers report for Spring Training this week, we are rolling for fantasy baseball season with our player projections and the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy for 2011, loaded with those projections. It is an exciting time as we approach the dawn of another season.

As with any set of projections, there are going to be players projected somewhat higher or lower than what the majority of fantasy baseball players think. We can identify these players through a comparison of the player’s ranking versus their Average Draft Position (ADP). These players who are outside the norm can be considered sleepers or busts, or overvalued or undervalued for fantasy baseball.

The important thing to note isn’t that these players are projected “wrong”, but rather, does the projector with his contrarian thinking have valid reasons for projecting these players higher or lower than consensus? We certainly believe the reasons are valid, or we wouldn’t project the players that way.

So who are these players? Let’s take a look at some hitters who aren’t being taken seriously enough and those who are overvalued around Major League Baseball, and more importantly, fantasy baseball.

Catchers

Russell Martin has received no love since his breakout season of 2007. Since his game has slumped at the plate in the last few years, he has earned what he has received, but look for a revival in the Bronx. Hitting in the New York Yankees order can do wonders for anyone’s game and Martin should be rejuvenated with 2007-esque numbers. The steals might not break 20 like his big season, but look for the average and power to return. He’s being drafted as the 243rd player overall (18th round in a 14-team league) over at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so a mid-teen draft pick should net you a very solid catcher.

Kurt Suzuki always produces when healthy. Unfortunately, he missed almost a month of 2010 and didn’t get 500 at bats for the first time since his rookie season. Suzuki doesn’t put up huge numbers, but because he normally gets a lot of at bats, the stats pile up for him more than most catchers. He’s going in the 12th round at MDC, but should be going earlier than that. Assuming he can stay healthy, he will reward you.

There are four elite catchers in fantasy baseball: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Buster Posey, with Posey joining the group in 2011. Carlos Santana will likely join the group next season, but is probably a cut below for right now.

If you can’t get one of the big four, there are nearly a dozen who can be lumped together with similar expectations. That group includes Martin, Suzuki and Santana. Unless you’ve really fallen in love with one of these guys, don’t jump the gun and draft one too soon, after the big four are drafted. Play the waiting game and get one for value once two-thirds to three-quarters of projected starting catchers are off the board.

First Base

Derrek Lee has fallen out of favor with fantasy players. His stats are sliding a bit from his glory days in Chicago, but if you can snag Lee a round or two before his 16th round ADP, you will love the results. Lee is healthy again and is determined to prove that he hasn’t lost it. The Orioles have constructed a nice batting order around Lee with Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, which will help the cause. If you have the faith in Lee, he will pay off handsomely.

Aubrey Huff had a very nice 2010, but that wasn’t who Aubrey Huff is. Huff is more like a .270/20/80 guy, but he’s flying off the board at MDC in the eighth round as if he were going to produce .290/26/86 again. Don’t fall for the hype.

Second Base

Brian Roberts is a guy whose reputation will carry him for the next few years, even as his production declines. He’s still a good fantasy performer, but he now falls into a very large group of players who will give you similar numbers at a cheaper price, and likely less injury risk. Unless he falls in your draft, don’t spend a lot on him.

There are a number of players who will qualify at 2B this season but will play elsewhere. Most of them are good players to have on your team because they will qualify at multiple positions, including a hard to cover middle infield slot. Martin Prado is the best of the bunch and Ben Zobrist will help your team in a lot of areas. Chone Figgins is a notoriously slow starter, but is worth 30-40 steals by the end of the season.

Third Base

Chase Headley is ready to step up for the Padres. He has reached that magical age of 27 and will progress towards being a better all-around ball player. He’s not about to push David Wright off the All-Star team, but he will likely better all of his 2010 numbers. He’s going in the 21st round over at MDC, which is about ten rounds too late for his production. He’ll contribute nicely in all categories, including almost 20 steals. Grab him and enjoy the ride.

If there is one player that you should stay away from, it’s Adrian Beltre. He has shown us a pattern of playing hard only when his next contract is on the line. In a contract season, he is a monster. He averaged .310/28/89 in his three contract seasons. Compare that to his non-contract season average of .264/18/67. Why the Texas Rangers would back up the armored car for this slacker, no one knows. Make sure you don’t do it, even in a hitter friendly ballpark, unless you want to be disappointed.

Short Stop

Troy Tulowitzki had a September like no other. In September of 2010, Tulo went .376/15/40 with 30 runs scored. Those stats help to inflate his 2010 overall stat line and covers up the goose eggs he took from mid-June through late July as he was on the disabled list. He spent an extended stay on the DL two of the last three years and there are serious concerns about his durability. When he plays, he’s the second best shortstop in fantasy baseball. But it’s hard to get stats for your squad when you’re not on the field. If you draft Tulo, make sure you have an adequate backup ready to slide into his place for a spell, and hopefully not a long spell.

There are about a half dozen guys who can give you stats similar to the ones Jhonny Peralta will put up in 2011. The difference is that he will be on the board for about 10 rounds longer then each of the other players. Grab him shortly before his 18th round ADP and you will be happy. The bonus is that he is also 3B eligible in most leagues for a little flexibility, although SS is a more shallow position.

Outfield

Two things you need to know about Carlos Beltran’s 2011 season is that he’s healthy and it’s a contract season. He’s not about to return to the glory days of 40-40, but he should end up with 25 homers and 25 steals with an average north of .275. Beltran is going in the late 17th round at MDC, which is a bargain for what you’ll get.

Nick Markakis is a very good hitting outfielder. He’s somewhere in between the outlier seasons of 2007 when he was great and 2010 when he was mediocre. Since his stats have been steadily decreasing every season since his big 2007 campaign, many have given up on him. If you are looking for guy who can hit .300 and drive in 100 runs, then Markakis is your man. He might only hit 15 or so homers, but the overall value is much better than the eighth round ADP he is getting over at MDC.

Josh Hamilton, when healthy, is one of the most feared hitters in the game. But this is a guy who has a great amount of trouble staying healthy. He’s averaged 427 at bats each of the last two seasons and thinking he will see 600 AB is asking too much from a guy who throws his body around in centerfield. Expect him to excel when playing, but temper your expectations to around 500 AB.

Ichiro Suzuki is a great story of a guy who came over from Japan and excelled as an everyday player. He was the first Japanese player to do this and he has been awesome to watch for the last decade. Unfortunately, the man who relies on speed to change the game is slowing down as he ages. The steals are down around 30 and the batting average is getting dangerously close to .300. This isn’t a player to avoid, but Ichiro hits for no power and contributes very little other than his speed. He certainly isn’t a player to select in the early third round, as he is being drafted over at MDC.