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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Wednesday July 11

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Stack #1
Rockies
·
Stack #2
Red Sox
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Stack #3
Orioles

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Colorado Rockies are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.32 FanDuel and 1.77 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Shelby Miller ARI who after facing 67 batters is currently allowing 168% more ppa in FanDuel and 164% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.103 on FanDuel and 1.604 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.32 x 168% in FanDuel and 1.77 x 164% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.103 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack COL RHP at home 2.32 Shelby Miller ARI 67 168% 3.89 1.57
Stack BOS RHP at home 2.63 Bartolo Colon TEX 416 113% 2.96 0.33
Stack BAL RHP at home 2.04 Sonny Gray NYY 385 115% 2.35 0.31
Stack ARI RHP on road 2.07 German Marquez COL 426 112% 2.32 0.25
Stack NYY RHP on road 2.21 Dylan Bundy BAL 419 109% 2.40 0.19
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid TEX LHP on road 1.68 Chris Sale BOS 478 70% 1.18 -0.50
Avoid MIA RHP at home 1.86 Freddy Peralta MIL 127 64% 1.19 -0.67
Avoid PHI RHP on road 2.08 Jacob deGrom NYM 455 66% 1.38 -0.70

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.604 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack COL RHP at home 1.77 Shelby Miller ARI 67 164% 2.89 1.13
Stack BOS RHP at home 1.99 Bartolo Colon TEX 416 114% 2.27 0.28
Stack BAL RHP at home 1.56 Sonny Gray NYY 385 114% 1.77 0.21
Stack ARI RHP on road 1.56 German Marquez COL 426 111% 1.74 0.18
Stack NYY RHP on road 1.67 Dylan Bundy BAL 419 109% 1.82 0.14
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid TEX LHP on road 1.31 Chris Sale BOS 478 71% 0.93 -0.37
Avoid MIA RHP at home 1.45 Freddy Peralta MIL 127 62% 0.89 -0.55
Avoid PHI RHP on road 1.58 Jacob deGrom NYM 455 69% 1.09 -0.49

Fantasy Baseball 2013 Consensus Top Prospects

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One of my favorite tasks prepping for the upcoming fantasy baseball season is compiling my consensus top prospects list, a ranking of the next best players in baseball. This is the fourth year publishing the list. Feel free to go back and check the top prospects from 2010, 2011 and 2012, and you’ll quickly see what a major impact these players have on the fantasy baseball landscape today. The top of this list are the guys you want to build your deep keeper and dynasty league fantasy baseball teams around for years to come.

This year I used 14 publicly available “top 100” prospect lists to form the basis of my list, although there were changes to the lists included in the consensus from last year. Players had to be named on at least seven of the lists to make the final cut. Players were given 100 points for a 1st place listing, 99 points for second, 98 for third and on and on down to 1 point for a selection as number 100.

Each list that formed the consensus is identified in the key below. Each player’s score for that list is indicated and their average is listed last. Scores are based on the number of lists they appear. I realize this simple system has the potential to skew the results of those picked on fewer lists, but overall it provides a good snapshot of the guys you should target for your rosters.

 

Player
 BA BP CBS DL KL MLB PP 361 SC SB S2S TBH TDG TPA AVG
1. SS Jurickson Profar, TEX
 100 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 99 100 100 100 100 100 99.9
2. RHP Dylan Bundy, BAL
 99 97 96 97 98 99 99 98 100 98 99 99 97 99 98.2
3. OF Oscar Taveras, STL
 98 99 95 99 99 98 98 99 98 97 93 97 99 97 97.6
4. OF Wil Myers, TB
 97 94 100 98 97 97 96 97 95 99 97 98 96 98 97.1
5. RHP Gerrit Cole, PIT
 94 98 92 95 93 92 97 96 97 96 92 94 93 95 94.6
6. RHP Taijuan Walker, SEA
 83 92 81 91 92 96 88 91 96 95 94 93 90 87 90.6
7. SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS
 93 89 89 96 96 81 95 90 74 89 91 96 95 86 90
8. RHP Zack Wheeler, NYM
 90 96 91 87 88 93 89 93 84 84 96 79 94 91 89.6
9. RHP Jose Fernandez, MIA
 96 95 84 93 85 94 93 92 80 87 95 80 87 94 89.6
10. RHP Shelby Miller, STL
 95 85 98 94 80 76 90 95 83 86 84 89 92 96 88.8
11. 3B Miguel Sano, MIN
 92 80 90 86 90 89 92 85 85 90 98 84 83 92 88.3
12. C Travis d’Arnaud, NYM
 78 86 97 85 87 95 80 88 93 92 86 85 91 76 87.1
13. RHP Jameson Taillon, PIT
 82 90 80 88 81 86 87 89 94 93 79 91 86 85 86.5
14. RHP Trevor Bauer, CLE
 87 77 85 90 76 84 94 78 86 91 88 95 80 84 85.4
15. LHP Tyler Skaggs, ARI
 89 84 77 83 89 91 86 84 88 83 85 86 78 90 85.2
16. SS Billy Hamilton, CIN
 81 87 94 81 71 90 75 94 75 94 77 90 98 80 84.8
17. OF Christian Yelich, MIA
 86 78 82 82 95 88 83 83 87 85 82 82 76 73 83
18. SS Javier Baez, CHC
 85 81 88 89 70 85 81 79 79 73 90 81 84 77 81.6
19. C Mike Zunino, SEA
 84 68 93 92 86 78 85 80 71 74 81 67 75 74 79.1
20. 3B Nick Castellanos, DET
 80 64 72 79 63 80 79 87 92 80 87 78 88 75 78.9
21. RHP Archie Bradley, ARI
 76 70 63 73 72 77 77 82 91 76 89 72 72 83 76.6
22. OF Jonathan Singleton, HOU
 74 76 66 80 69 74 72 74 73 72 75 70 85 78 74.1
23. OF Byron Buxton, MIN
 91 93 58 76 79 82 91 81 48 53 60 52 81 88 73.8
24. 3B Anthony Rendon, WAS
 71 66 62 65 84 73 82 86 64 77 73 68 89 70 73.6
25. 3B Mike Olt, TEX
 79 71 71 72 30 79 67 75 89 81 78 83 79 69 73.1
26. LHP Danny Hultzen, SEA
 72 51 74 71 35 83 69 64 90 88 83 92 71 79 73
27. SS Carlos Correa, HOU
 88 75 0 78 77 71 84 77 77 79 62 74 82 93 72.6
28. SS Francisco Lindor, CLE
 73 91 0 61 94 87 78 57 82 78 80 76 41 81 69.9
29. RHP Kevin Gausman, BAL
 75 88 61 77 75 64 74 55 59 71 47 69 50 82 67.6
30. RHP Carlos Martinez, STL
 63 58 64 62 62 68 68 70 63 75 57 87 69 60 66.1
31. OF Jorge Soler, CHC
 67 65 68 69 59 59 62 45 34 69 67 56 74 62 61.1
32. OF Jackie Bradley, BOS
 70 74 83 57 61 69 60 72 53 58 59 28 37 66 60.5
33. RHP Julio Teheran, ATL
 57 49 76 38 73 70 66 43 69 82 31 88 38 65 60.4
34. OF George Springer, HOU
 64 46 69 60 58 44 58 52 76 52 74 49 66 61 59.2
35. RHP Matt Barnes, BOS
 61 63 60 56 22 63 70 40 70 55 71 55 65 64 58.2
36. 3B Addison Russell, OAK
 53 79 0 70 91 53 71 62 61 56 55 41 67 56 58.2
37. OF Bubba Starling, KC
 66 52 0 44 56 75 52 36 66 68 76 75 55 68 56.4
38. OF Albert Almora, CHC
 68 83 0 54 68 62 65 65 65 57 56 33 30 67 55.2
39. RHP Kyle Zimmer, KC
 77 60 0 34 74 67 73 53 68 64 18 37 54 89 54.9
40. C Gary Sanchez, NYY
 44 54 0 68 83 65 54 67 72 34 68 66 46 41 54.4
41. OF Mason Williams, NYY
 69 50 0 40 66 60 56 76 58 62 50 51 49 71 54.1
42. RHP Aaron Sanchez, TOR
 36 69 0 66 82 66 76 38 52 49 70 0 62 55 51.5
43. RHP Noah Syndergaard, NYM
 47 73 0 74 4 72 40 46 55 54 63 59 45 57 49.2
44. SS Alen Hanson, PIT
 40 35 65 63 67 47 32 73 47 31 36 25 63 31 46.8
45. 3B Jedd Gyorko, SD
 30 17 86 49 31 51 50 42 50 65 26 57 60 33 46.2
46. RHP Trevor Rosenthal, STL
 62 56 70 75 43 58 64 26 32 29 33 0 47 43 45.6
47. 3B Nolan Arenado, COL
 49 44 67 10 0 39 55 7 67 70 46 64 58 58 45.3
48. RHP Chris Archer, TB
 65 72 59 43 48 55 47 0 42 66 21 20 59 36 45.2
49. OF David Dahl, COL
 48 61 0 59 64 43 42 71 41 42 23 18 53 52 44.1
50. RHP Taylor Guerrieri, TB
 39 53 0 67 54 57 49 63 30 7 72 19 43 17 40.7
51. OF Oswaldo Arcia, MIN
 60 41 56 51 42 8 46 49 9 51 8 39 64 46 40.7
52. RHP Robert Stephenson, CIN
 45 23 0 84 53 50 48 37 60 38 42 0 28 59 40.5
53. RHP Jake Odorizzi, TB
 9 18 0 36 33 56 53 60 56 59 69 71 27 18 40.4
54. OF Jake Marisnick, MIA
 37 30 0 0 19 31 30 66 81 60 45 54 42 42 38.4
55. 3B Kaleb Cowart, LAA
 41 59 0 0 78 34 35 56 45 50 51 4 51 14 37
56. LHP Max Fried, SD
 55 40 0 64 50 48 45 30 33 26 11 0 61 49 36.6
57. OF Brian Goodwin, WAS
 31 27 0 27 57 49 41 59 27 20 61 0 68 40 36.2
58. RHP Alex Meyer, MIN
 42 13 0 35 40 61 43 35 40 40 53 40 29 13 34.6
59. OF Gregory Polanco, PIT
 50 57 0 55 46 36 23 69 0 0 17 23 56 53 33.5
60. RHP Casey Kelly, SD
 56 24 0 48 41 32 39 0 26 61 34 0 70 37 33.4
61. 2B Kolten Wong, STL
 17 11 73 29 5 22 61 41 44 43 35 42 33 3 32.8
62. OF Rymer Liriano, SD
 0 62 0 0 47 46 0 68 57 0 65 35 73 0 32.4
63. SS Nick Franklin, SEA
 22 29 0 46 32 54 57 4 54 67 7 58 23 0 32.4
64. 3B Tyler Austin, NYY
 24 0 0 39 49 26 13 47 39 33 20 65 57 28 31.4
65. SS Trevor Story, COL
 5 67 0 25 16 2 44 54 18 23 41 61 48 26 30.7
66. RHP Kyle Gibson, MIN
 33 37 53 0 60 52 59 13 0 22 37 27 21 11 30.4
67. C Austin Hedges, SD
 43 82 0 58 65 28 34 14 0 0 52 13 0 27 29.7
68. OF Aaron Hicks, MIN
 29 55 75 11 52 3 28 16 24 39 27 7 31 5 28.7
69. LHP Justin Nicolino, MIA
 15 28 0 47 39 29 21 0 62 46 12 50 12 32 28.1
70. OF Yasiel Puig, LAD
 54 22 0 42 0 25 51 34 10 44 32 5 39 29 27.6
71. LHP James Paxton, SEA
 14 9 0 45 0 40 20 61 19 3 64 43 36 24 27
72. OF Adam Eaton, ARI
 28 0 87 18 10 4 27 58 0 45 0 8 34 45 26
73. RHP Allen Webster, BOS
 52 32 0 14 38 30 37 44 0 18 15 0 32 48 25.7
74. RHP Kyle Crick, SF
 35 36 0 53 25 15 24 27 43 27 10 0 13 47 25.4
75. RHP Wily Peralta, MIL
 32 33 57 0 28 37 0 0 28 47 0 53 35 0 25
76. LHP Tony Cingrani, CIN
 19 10 54 0 3 35 8 11 37 48 38 45 10 25 24.5
77. RHP Lucas Giolito, WAS
 34 31 0 31 24 27 38 5 0 24 3 0 40 72 23.5
78. 2B Delino DeShields Jr., HOU
 2 0 0 33 18 0 12 51 23 2 66 0 77 16 21.4
79. RHP Daniel Straily, OAK
 0 16 78 16 0 0 0 24 35 37 29 47 9 0 20.8
80. SS Hak-Ju Lee, TB
 11 26 0 0 23 45 5 0 78 63 9 10 0 20 20.7
81. LHP Jesse Biddle, PHI
 12 34 0 52 6 41 11 50 13 5 44 0 0 19 20.5
82. LHP Martin Perez, TEX
 20 42 0 26 8 6 19 1 46 0 22 63 1 38 19.9
83. OF Courtney Hawkins, CHW
 46 0 0 0 27 33 33 29 4 0 49 0 0 44 18.9
84. RHP Yordano Ventura, KC
 16 39 0 2 0 42 22 0 15 6 28 21 15 51 18.4
85. RHP Luis Heredia, PIT
 23 48 0 5 17 0 25 0 31 11 24 0 18 54 18.3
86. RHP Michael Wacha, STL
 25 45 0 41 0 18 63 23 7 15 0 0 0 12 17.8
87. 3B Matt Davidson, ARI
 13 12 0 13 26 24 9 20 51 10 0 26 26 7 16.9
88. OF Slade Heathcott, NYY
 38 0 0 0 44 0 31 48 21 0 0 0 0 50 16.6
89. RHP Zach Lee, LAD
 0 14 0 0 34 23 0 0 49 30 58 1 0 0 14.9
90. LHP Andrew Heaney, MIA
 58 0 0 0 0 20 29 15 0 0 0 0 0 63 13.2
91. RHP Clayton Blackburn, SF
 0 6 0 50 21 0 0 39 38 0 30 0 0 0 13.1
92. OF Michael Choice, OAK
 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 28 48 48 6 6 13.1
93. SS Jonathan Schoop, BAL
 0 21 0 0 51 0 0 17 0 0 0 60 20 0 12.1
94. RHP Bruce Rondon, DET
 6 0 79 0 0 9 4 31 5 21 0 0 0 0 11.1
95. RHP Arodys Vizcaino, CHC
 18 47 0 0 37 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 39 10.6
96. OF Avisail Garcia, DET
 27 0 0 21 0 0 15 0 2 9 0 38 0 30 10.1
97. RHP Cody Buckel, TEX
 0 0 0 30 11 14 17 0 0 0 5 62 0 0 9.9
98. RHP A.J. Cole, WAS
 0 0 0 0 12 10 0 8 1 41 6 44 3 0 8.9
99. RHP Daniel Corcino, CIN
 7 0 0 6 29 0 10 0 20 4 0 46 0 0 8.7
100. RHP J.R. Graham, ATL
 8 38 0 0 7 0 2 18 14 25 0 0 0 10 8.7
101. RHP Jarred Cosart, HOU
 0 0 0 3 15 12 16 0 16 0 43 0 7 0 8
102. SS Dorssys Paulino, CLE
 0 5 0 0 45 0 0 2 8 0 0 0 17 23 7.1
103. OF Marcell Ozuna, MIA
 26 0 0 0 0 0 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 2 4.6
104. 3B Joey Gallo, TEX
 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 13 29 0 0 4.1
105. OF Leonys Martin , TEX
 4 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 35 0 9 0 0 3.9