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Top Rookie Quarterbacks—Winston, Mariota Potential Redraft Options, Plus Handful of Dynasty Prospects

May 15, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie QB Jameis Winston has quite a bit more to work with on offense than Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota. There is some redraft potential here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie QB Jameis Winston has quite a bit more to work with on offense than Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota. There is some redraft potential here.

Almost every year there are one or two highly touted rookie quarterbacks that fans expect to thrive their first season in the NFL. It does not help that the NFL hype machine is working overdrive with respect to these players, focusing so much attention on them.

In 2013, it was EJ Manuel and Geno Smith, both of whom have been disappointments. In 2014, Johnny Manziel was a major bust and Blake Bortles was underwhelming, while Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr showed promise but were not particularly useful for fantasy.

Perhaps the 2012 class of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, in which each of these players finished Top 12 in fantasy points per game, is too fresh in our memories. This group is the exception though, not the norm. It usually takes at least one season for a quarterback to get a true feel for the NFL and enter fantasy football relevancy.

Even though fan bases put pressure on teams to start their new young quarterback early, and teams often bow to that pressure, the best approach for fantasy players is likely set expectations low and hope for the best. The player will quite possibly be overwhelmed like Manuel, but may fall into an ideal situation and blossom like Griffin (as a rookie).

Do we have a Griffin situation for 2015? Here are my post-NFL Draft Top 5 Rookie Quarterbacks:

1. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

With the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, quarterback Jameis Winston went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One of the most hotly debated rookie quarterbacks coming out of college due to off-field issues, the Buccaneers made sure to do their research on Winston. Boasting a BCS Championship, a Heisman Trophy and a 26-1 career record as a starter in college, Winston is, arguably, the most NFL-ready of all rookie quarterbacks. Winston will be under center Day One. He gets the pleasure of throwing to veteran WR Vincent Jackson, last season’s rookie sensation receiver Mike Evans, and tight end sleeper Austin Seferian-Jenkins. With Charles Sims likely assuming a larger role in the running game, this means Winston should be spreading the ball around and utilizing quick reads. With the franchise in his hands and weapons to be dangerous, consider spending a higher rookie pick on Winston than usual for a QB in your dynasty leagues. While we are keeping redraft expectations in check, he is a fringe starter in QB-flex leagues, and is a potentially useful bench player in 12-team or larger, traditional start one QB leagues.

2. Marcus Mariota, Titans

The most speculation leading up to the 2015 NFL Draft was when Marcus Mariota will be drafted and to which team. Rumors were swirling the former Oregon Ducks quarterback would be reunited with his former coach Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, or go the San Diego Chargers, or Cleveland Browns, but none of that came to fruition. Instead, Mariota went second overall to the Tennessee Titans. With a 36-5 record as a starter for the Oregon Ducks, Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback. He doesn’t have as strong an arm or pocket presence as Winston, but can hurt defenses with his legs. The Titans offense is in complete rebuild mode. Not only are the receivers young, between Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham, but the Titans running game is also a work-in-progress, featuring sophomore Bishop Sankey and rookie David Cobb. Tough to say whether the Titans will roll out Mariota or let Zach Mettenberger take some lumps first, but the Titans travel to face the Buccaneers Week 1, so we know who the NFL has in mind for this matchup.

Dynasty Prospects

Outside of Winston and Mariota, the other quarterbacks drafted in 2015 were selected as backups who may develop into future replacements for current starting quarterbacks. All are dynasty stash and hold picks, and not draftable for redraft leagues.

Bryce Petty, Jets

In 2014, the New York Jets were abysmal at the quarterback position between Geno Smith and Michael Vick. In Week 8 last season versus the Buffalo Bills, Geno Smith had more interceptions (3) than completions (2, of 8 attempts). Yes, the Jets are in desperate need for a franchise quarterback. New Head Coach Todd Bowles is hoping Bryce Petty will be that guy. Unfortunately, Petty still has some developing to do and may not get a chance to start for another year or two; that is unless the very-opined Jets fan base has anything to say about it. In Petty’s first full season for the Baylor Bears, he passed for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He also rushed for 14 touchdowns. The Jets have some offensive weapons in Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Jace Amaro, but if Smith falters the Jets likely turn to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick before Petty this season.

Garrett Grayson, Saints

Garrett Grayson has the privilege to learn from Super Bowl winning quarterback Drew Brees. The investment in Grayson in the third round of the NFL Draft shows that Head Coach Sean Payton is preparing for the future without an aging Brees. Brees is still a few years away from hanging up the towel, so that gives Payton time to develop Grayson into the future franchise quarterback. With the acquisition of running back C.J. Spiller, and trading away Jimmy Graham and burner receiver Kenny Stills, it is apparent the Saints are leaning towards a more run-based offense, which takes pressure off of Brees and may help extend his career. Still, at 36 years old, it is a good time for the Saints to develop Brees’ successor.

Brett Hundley, Packers

Just like Grayson, Brett Hundley lands immediately into the backup role and opportunity to learn from one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers coaching staff likes athletic quarterbacks and Hundley fits that mold. Hundley needs to work on his pocket presence, but that develops with practice and time. While Hundley is not any sort of immediate threat to Rodgers, should A-Rod get injured then Hundley has an excellent supporting cast to work with and help streamline his development.

Sean Mannion, Rams

St. Louis Rams made a surprise trade during free agency when they traded away oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford for former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles. Foles had an impressive rookie season in 2013, finished third in fantasy points per game, but was off to a bad start for the Eagles last season prior to breaking his collarbone. Now with the Rams, Foles will have a short leash with Head Coach Jeff Fisher. Mannion is a big man with a big arm; and will definitely be groomed for a future in St. Louis, and could find himself starting sooner than expected.

Top 2015 Rookies Series

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Defensive Players

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rookie Mock Draft—Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon First Off The Board?

May 5, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go fisrt in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn't rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is...

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go first in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn’t rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is…

The NFL Draft is in the books, and as a result many fantasy football dynasty owners are coming out of short hibernation to get their league rookie-only drafts underway. These are the golden children of the fantasy football landscape. The next superstars in the making to set your dynasty team on the winning path for years to come.

Who is the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Jeremy Hill? Who is the next Bishop Sankey, Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson? Hmm…

While dynasty owners have stars in their eyes for the incoming rookie class, it is always good to keep things in perspective. Early returns on last year’s class are very good, but that was very likely an exceptional year. It isn’t like that every year.

Very good and even great players emerge each season, and the rookies are a good place to start searching for those, but if your fellow owners are gaga for some of these guys and you can parlay it into a bounty of future draft picks, then you have to consider it.

All that said, we still have to think about the short and long-term fantasy outlook for this crop of rookies, and judge how they should be valued or ranked relative to their peers. Here is a three round, 12-team mock draft that does exactly that.

Round 1

1. RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers

While Gordon rates a hair below Todd Gurley in pure ability, he gets to join a Chargers offense that is light years ahead of where the Rams are, in particular at quarterback and along the offensive line.

2. RB Todd Gurley, Rams

One highlight is all it takes to see that Gurley is a special player. However, he is coming off a torn ACL and joins a Rams team with major issues along the offensive line and which currently only has two players that would rate as starters on most NFL teams.

3. WR Amari Cooper, Raiders

The choice between Cooper and Kevin White amounts to polish vs. potential. We’re going with polish and also recognizing that, while David Carr currently rates below Jay Cutler, we like the long term quarterback potential more in Oakland than we do in Chicago.

4. WR Kevin White, Bears

White has potential superstar written all over him but it was a little disconcerting to notice that, despite his blazing speed, his highlight reel didn’t show a player capable of gaining consistent separation.

5. WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins

At some point, Parker will emerge as the Dolphins top wide receiver and it just might happen during his rookie season. Of all of the Dolphins receivers, he is the only one who possesses the ability to emerge as a long term top wideout. The only caveat here is quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s lack of touch on the deep ball.

6. RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons

While not the shiftiest running back, Coleman possesses blazing speed and a willingness to take on opposing tacklers. He fits best in a zone blocking scheme and has a clear lane to a starting position with only the disappointing Devonta Freeman ahead of him.

7. WR Breshad Perriman, Ravens

Let’s run down the check marks: good size, outstanding speed, opportunity to start from Day 1. Yep, Perriman has all that and a strong armed quarterback in Joe Flacco that is a good fit to Perriman’s ability to make plays down the field. He may struggle early but he has tremendous upside.

8. RB T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

The good news is that Yeldon has a chance to open the season as a starter with Jacksonville. The bad news is that Yeldon was drafted by Jacksonville. While Yeldon lacks the upside of some of his fellow rookie running backs, as the third running back taken in the draft, he will be in the starting line up early in the season, if not on opening day.

9. WR Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Agholor possesses solid, not outstanding speed and lacks ideal size at 6’1” and 190 pounds. While he can line up outside, he may spend most of his time working out of the slot and that would limit his upside.

10. WR Jaelen Strong, Texans

By all accounts, the Texans got a steal by selecting Strong in the 3rd round of the draft. While DeAndre Hopkins is entrenched as the team’s leading wide receiver, Strong figures to unseat Cecil Shorts for a starting position by mid-season.

11. RB Jeremy Langford, Bears

While Matt Forte is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season, initial reports indicate that Langford is unlikely to be viewed as a potential long term replacement should Forte leave Chicago.

12. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Green-Beckham has solid upside and comparisons to Brandon Marshall and Kelvin Benjamin are warranted. However, the Titans in general lack leadership and this pick would look a whole lot better if the team had a veteran wide receiver to mentor him. This is as boom or bust as it gets.

Round 2

1. RB Matt Jones, Redskins

Doesn’t possess major upside but, with Alfred Morris scheduled for free agency at season’s end, could have an opportunity to start in 2016.

2. RB Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

Miami’s backfield is devoid of depth and they had little choice but to end Ajayi’s draft freefall in the 5th round. He has little chance of supplanting Lamar Miller in 2015.

3. TE Maxx Williams, Ravens

Williams is a talented player and the Ravens draft well so there is a solid chance that he will have a long, productive career provided he remains healthy. I would have him ranked higher except for the fact that there are so many tight ends that fit within a certain tier of ability that there isn’t a need to use a high pick on Williams unless you think he will emerge as a superstar. The track record at TE for that is not happening is not stellar.

4. RB Ameer Abdullah, Lions

Not that big, not that fast, Abdullah will most likely work as a chance of pace and receiving option in his rookie year. However, the 2nd round pick has a chance to take over for Joique Bell as early as next season provided he can prove adept at running between the tackles. He will almost certainly never emerge as a workhorse type back.

5. WR Devin Funchess, Panthers

His selection by Carolina in the 2nd round rates as a head scratcher as he is basically a slightly less talented version of 2014 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin.

6. WR Chris Conley, Chiefs

By now you’ve heard that Kansas City wide receivers failed to catch a single touchdown pass last season and Jeremy Maclin was brought in from Philadelphia to lead the rebuilding project. Well, Conley rates as the second piece of the project and he has a decent chance to emerge as a starter in his rookie season.

7. RB David Johnson, Cardinals

There are two narratives on Johnson. One is that he rates as Andre Ellington’s replacement in Arizona’s starting lineup. The other is that he’s strictly a soft running, 224 lb. backup with little upside.

8. RB David Cobb, Titans

While many are going to predict that Cobb has a chance to supplant second year player Bishop Sankey in the starting lineup, it says here that he is more likely to force Shonn Greene off the roster.

9. WR Sammie Coates, Steelers

Coates has some pretty serious talent and upside for a 3rd round pick but alas the path to playing time in Pittsburgh is somewhat blocked with Antonio Brown and a pair of productive youngsters in Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton in the way.

10. WR Phillip Dorsett, Colts

Not sure why the Colts felt the need to add Dorsett unless there are some concerns about T.Y. Hilton’s availability. We don’t see much of a role for him in 2015 especially since the Colts often line up in two tight end sets.

Jameis Winston

Yep, he went there.

11. QB Jameis Winston, Bucs

With so many solid fantasy options at quarterback, it just doesn’t make sense to reach for one in dynasty rookie drafts. Especially one with Winston’s checkered past and concerns of maturity issues. And he’s joining the Bucs, who just can’t seem to ever get it right.

12. QB Marcus Mariota, Titans

You have to be skeptical of his ability to transfer his college strengths to the pros, especially if coach Ken Whisenhunt fails to appropriately tailor his deep passing offensive philosophy. And where exactly are the playmakers on the Titans offense to help shoulder the load?

Round 3

1. RB Duke Johnson, Browns

Johnson has some serious agility skills but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball.

2. RB Javorius Allen, Ravens

Allen will enter training camp fighting with Lorenzo Taliaferro for the top spot behind Baltimore’s lead back, Justin Forsett.

3. WR Devin Smith, Jets

Smith’s solid speed and big play ability fill an obvious need in the Jets offense but new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s affinity for short and intermediate throws don’t bode well for Smith’s target count as a rookie nor does the presence of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

4. RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers

Aging Mike Tolbert is joined by a cast of retreads on Carolina’s depth chart behind Jonathan Stewart. Artis-Payne could emerge as Stewart’s handcuff, making him a potential contributor given Stewart’s lengthy injury history.

5. WR Ty Montgomery, Packers

Any wide receiver selected by Green Bay in the 3rd round warrants fantasy consideration. It’s just hard to predict much of a role for him until Jordy Nelson departs since Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are young, productive players.

6. TE Clive Walford, Raiders

A late-comer to football, Walford lacks the speed necessary to emerge as an upper tier tight end. However, he figures to ascend to the starting lineup early in his career.

7. WR Vince Mayle, Browns

Despite the abundance of talent at the wide receiver position in each of the last two drafts, Cleveland failed to address the position last year and waited until the 4th round this year before draft Mayle, who shapes up as a possession receiver.

8. RB Mike Davis, 49ers

While San Francisco’s current running back depth chart runs three deep with Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter, there is a decent chance that only Hyde will return to the team for the 2016 season, giving Davis a shot at earning some carries in 2016.

9. QB Bryce Petty, Jets

Geno Smith isn’t the answer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been the answer either. Petty likely redshirts as a rookie in 2015 with a chance to start next season.

10. WR Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

I have pretty much zero faith in the Seahawks ability to either develop or properly utilize their wide receivers. It’s that point in the draft, folks.

11. WR Rashad Greene, Jaguars

Despite having a solid trio of promising second year wide receivers, Jacksonville added Greene to the mix as their 5th round pick. Puzzling.

12. QB Sean Mannion, Rams

Recently acquired starter Nick Foles isn’t signed beyond this year and will need a solid season to earn a new contract. Given the current state of the team’s wide receivers and offensive line, the odds of that happening aren’t great.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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