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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

FanEx FAD Experts League Fantasy Football Draft Recap Continued

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QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

The face of the San Francisco 49ers, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t have much in the way of playing experience entering his 5th NFL season, but he is my QB1 in the FanEx FAD fantasy football draft.

The FanEx Fantasy Analysis Draft (FAD) is a 12-team, 20-round draftmasters (best ball) PPR scoring fantasy football draft that requires each participant to write analysis for their picks. I drew the sixth overall pick, and described the league and comments for Rounds 1 to 5 last week.

Draft Buddy MFL Integration

Before we dive into my next picks, here is a new video for Draft Buddy I created from this draft that shows how the integration with MyFantasyLeague.com works to pull in franchise names and, even better, draft results. It makes it so much faster to update Draft Buddy at the press of a button.

Here is part two, my picks and commentary for Rounds 6 through 12.

Rounds 6 to 12 (June 18-23)

WR Michael Crabtree, BAL

Michael Crabtree was not really on my radar very much, even though I was leaning WR with this pick – too early for a QB, no top TE remaining, RB none too exciting at this point. Looking at players such as Pierre Garcon as the main target on the 49ers, or Devante Parker as a potential breakout candidate (yet again), a review of current ADP indicated I could wait on either of those guys. Which brought me to Crabtree. Veteran savvy WR joins veteran QB in a not very talented receiving group. Joe Flacco may be a fantasy pariah, but he isn’t stupid, already stating out of OTAs, “(Crabtree’s) the guy.” Crabtree should have numerous 10+ target games, making him a quality WR3.

RB Marlon Mack, IND

Seven rounds, starter spots filled at RB, WR and TE, but not QB or the flex spot. With 8 non-QB starters, unless a top QB comes at really good value, I am happy to wait longer. In all likelihood, my flex starter will be a WR most of the time. However, a review of available players, running backs with projected decent touches are getting thinner than wide receivers with projected decent targets. Marlon Mack, come on down!

Mack is coming off a so-so rookie season and offseason shoulder surgery, but has a good opportunity with the departure of Frank Gore. He had positive runs and miserable negative yardage plays. Here is to his first year experience, and new HC Frank Reich, helping make Mack a more effective runner. Not counting on it at this point but the return of Andrew Luck (early reports are good) would be a huge boost for the whole offense.

WR Pierre Garcon, SF

Now I get my WR target I was keen for two rounds ago. I was slightly shocked to see 49ers Marquise Goodwin get drafted back in the early 7th round, and realize I might be somewhat lonely supporting the Haitian as I did this time a year ago. What it ultimately means is, he is going to be on a lot of my fantasy teams this year. Last year he got injured, but he returned good PPR value for his low draft cost – 40 catches for 500 yards in 8 games without Jimmy Garoppolo (or a team win for that matter). Kyle Shanahan is a positive influence for his WR1. Better QB. Returning from neck injury which is scary but all signs are good, and Garcon hadn’t missed a game prior to last season since 2012. As the 40th WR off the board (Goodwin was 32nd), we shall see who becomes the more consistent contributor. I like my chances with the taller, bigger, more experienced guy.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

At this point I would love to wait longer for my first QB. Note I said, “first”, not, “starter”. We are looking at a committee approach to QB for my team at this point which is ideal for a best ball league. Whomever fills the first and second QB spots we hope provide the right amount of volatility week-to-week to score one of the top collective starters at the position. Mine is the 10th different team to draft a QB and Garoppolo represents QB12 off the board (Dolfi/Walls already paired Drew Brees and Jared Goff). If I did wait longer, then I am risking not having much choice in who I select, since teams are grabbing their second. So, Jimmy G. …

Even though there are options available considered more likely to finish in the top 10-12 in season scoring (because they’ve done it before), like Philip Rivers, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, drafting for top 12 is a zero-sum gain at this point. Why not draft a guy with upside who could surprise with a top 6 finish? All of his main skill players are already drafted so clearly fantasy players are high on the 49ers offense. We caught a glimpse what Garoppolo is capable of late last season. The prior four QB don’t excite me. This pick does.

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

The writeup for this pick shouldn’t be vastly different from my prior pick, except Patrick Mahomes is clearly more risky, having made one career NFL start in a meaningless Week 17 game last season. Love the weapons on the Kansas City Chiefs. Would Andy Reid really be so careless as to hand the reigns of a competitive team over to someone with such little experience? I don’t think so. Mahomes is actually projected QB12 in this scoring by FF Today’s Mike Krueger. MK is from Kansas City and usually has a good read on the Chiefs. He clearly likes the upside of Mahomes and I do too. Happy to take the risk here over the group of QB still available – Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota – who don’t have nearly the dynamic skill players that Mahomes does.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET

Clearly third in the pecking order on the Detroit Lions, Golladay isn’t exactly your ideal high projected target-reception guy to expect any degree of consistency from. However when veteran teammates say glowing things about a young player who flashed as a rookie last season, I take notice. From Golden Tate, “this guy can be dominant. He’s a WR1 kind of guy.” Plus, Eric Ebron is gone and there isn’t much receiving talent at TE.

RB James White, NE

“Mr. Playoffs” is still around in a very crowded backfield in New England. Dion Lewis is gone but rookie Sony Michel is aboard plus Jeremy Hill joining holdovers Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Michel should be involved – perhaps heavily – but I am okay betting against that given the rookie + Pats learning curve he has to overcome. Hill and Gillislee won’t both make the final roster, perhaps neither. White is a very good pass catcher and has the trust of the coaching staff and Tom Brady.

Final Rounds

The draft is 20 rounds but with the remaining used for kickers, defenses and depth, we will close here, but I will post my copy of Draft Buddy to the member download page so you can review all of the rosters, draft report and more. I find the positions tab particularly useful post-draft to review the rank each player was drafted at their position. For example, Jimmy Garoppolo was the 12th QB drafted in this draft, and Patrick Mahomes, QB17.

San Francisco 49ers Team Report

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Are San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and new WR Torrey Smith a good fit? Will tutelage from Kurt Warner help? Does new OC Geep Chryst allow Kaep to run more? Lots of tough questions to forecast a make-or-break season for the San Fran QB.

Are San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and new WR Torrey Smith a good fit? Will tutelage from Kurt Warner help? Does new OC Geep Chryst allow Kaep to run more? Lots of tough questions to forecast a make-or-break season for the San Fran QB.

QB Colin Kaepernick

At first glance, Kaepernick’s numbers from a year ago weren’t all that bad. He completed 60.5% of his passes. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 19 to 10. He threw for a career-high 3,369 yards. On the ground, he contributed a career-high 641 yards. However, after being drafted as a mid to lower tier QB1 in most leagues, he finished the season as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback mainly because his passing touchdowns declined from 21 to 19 and his rushing touchdowns declined from four to one. 49ers observers will tell you that the team struggled to move the ball at times and Kaepernick was a big part of the problem. He struggles against better defenses, lacks accuracy and doesn’t always take what opposing defenses are giving him, hence an offseason spent under the tutelage of Kurt Warner. Will it help? We’re not so sure. Kaepernick failed to top 20 fantasy points in nine of 10 games from Week 5 to Week 15 and had less than 220 passing yards in 10 games. With a pair of aging receivers in Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, Kaepernick’s best bet to regain QB1 status is with his legs, but will new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst allow him to run the ball more frequently? Perhaps but with a tough schedule on tap in 2015 we view him as a mid-tier QB2 with some upside.

RB Carlos Hyde

With Frank Gore having signed with Indianapolis in the offseason, Hyde will take over as the 49ers lead back in 2015. The 5’11”, 230 pound former 2nd round pick enjoyed a solid rookie season gaining 333 yards and four touchdowns on 83 carries while adding 12 receptions for 68 yards as a receiver. He enjoyed a stellar collegiate career at Ohio State and, at 5’11” and 230 pounds, is built to handle a workhorse role as a pro. Unfortunately for Hyde, his path to fantasy success is going to be a little tougher than it was for Gore during his last few years in San Francisco. With head coach and offensive guru Jim Harbaugh having left the team and an offensive line that lost a pair of Pro Bowl quality players in Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, the 49ers could struggle on offense in 2015. With Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter backing up Hyde, he is in-line for a Gore-type workload in his first season as the team’s starter. While Hyde has breakout potential, we can’t endorse him as a RB1. More likely, Hyde will settle into low RB2 production unless the whole 49ers offense exceeds expectations.

RB Reggie Bush

At 30 years of age and coming off an injury plagued, disappointing season in Detroit, Bush joins the 49ers backfield where he is expected to work as a change of pace, pass receiving option behind second year player Carlos Hyde. While the expectation is that Bush won’t get much playing time, it is important to remember that this is a team that may struggle in 2015 and spend more time playing catch up than in previous years. In Detroit, Bush enjoyed a solid season in 2013 with over 1,500 total yards and seven touchdowns before seeing his production decline to 550 yards and two touchdowns last season as an ankle injury caused him to miss five games and limited his effectiveness in several others. While his days as a leading back and potential mid-tier RB2 are behind him, Bush could provide value in larger leagues and PPR formats as a player who will likely catch 50 passes in 2015. He rates as a mid-tier RB4 in standard leagues and an upper tier RB4 in PPR formats.

RB Kendall Hunter

Despite coming off an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of the 2014 season, Hunter was re-signed by the 49ers in the offseason and will compete with Reggie Bush and rookie 4th round pick Mike Davis to backup presumptive starter Carlos Hyde. While Hunter has been productive when healthy, averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry on 262 career carries, he hasn’t emerged as a great pass catching option out of the backfield (just 27 career receptions) and it seems apparent the 49ers do not view him as feature back material, likely due to his size at 5’7” and 199 pounds. Since Hunter was taken in the 4th round of the 2011 draft, San Francisco has drafted LaMichael James (2nd round), Marcus Lattimore (4th round), Carlos Hyde (2nd round) and Mike Davis (4th round). And during the offseason they added Reggie Bush to back up Hyde. Hunter doesn’t have any fantasy value in 2015.

RB Mike Davis

Taken in the 4th round of this year’s draft, Davis joins a crowded 49ers backfield that will feature Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter in 2015. That doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects this season. However, the 5’9”, 223 pound South Carolina product has some value in dynasty formats since only Hyde seems like a surefire bet to return to the team in 2016.

WR Torrey Smith

After four solid, yet hardly spectacular years in Baltimore after being taken in the 1st round of the 2011 NFL Draft, Smith was signed to a five-year, $40-million in the offseason to join the 49ers. While Smith has blazing speed and has proven adept at finding the end zone with 30 touchdowns in his career, he has failed to develop into a solid all around wide receiver. Joining the 49ers, Smith leaves a solid deep ball thrower in Joe Flacco in order to catch passes from Colin Kaepernick, a player who has struggled with his accuracy throughout his career. In his final year in Baltimore, Smith finished as the 19th ranked wide receiver, catching 49 of his 92 targets for 767 yards (all career lows), but a career high 11 touchdowns. Since his touchdown production is all but guaranteed to decline as he moves to a less effective offense, Smith will need to improve as a short and intermediate option in the passing game to remain a lower tier WR2 for fantasy purposes. After four years in the league, we don’t see that happening. That makes Smith an upper tier WR4 with upside and one who will almost certainly struggle with consistency.

WR Anquan Boldin

After failing to top 1,000 receiving yards during his final three years in Baltimore, the fantasy community was ready to write Boldin off when he signed with the 49ers prior to the 2013 season. However, Boldin proved the naysayers wrong during his first year in San Francisco, catching 85 of his 129 targets (65.4% completion to target rate) for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns as he finished the season as the 15th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Nonetheless, he was written off again prior to the 2014 season but posted nearly identical stats with 83 receptions for 1,062 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the 22nd ranked wide receiver. At 34 years of age (35 in October), what is in store for Boldin in 2015? Well, Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson are no longer in San Francisco and while the 49ers signed Torrey Smith in free agency, the net result is positive for Boldin. Smith’s speed should take coverage away from Boldin and the team lacks a proven, consistent 3rd wide receiver with the enigmatic Jerome Simpson the frontrunner to fill that role. Nonetheless, Boldin’s advancing age and lack of speed lead us to believe that a reduction in his production is likely. While his touchdown count should remain steady, we don’t see him reaching 1,000 yards unless the 49ers spend plenty of time playing from behind (a not unrealistic possibility). He rates as a lower WR3 or upper tier WR4 with a slight boost in PPR formats.

WR Jerome Simpson

Entering his seventh year in the league, Simpson moves on to his third team having signed with the 49ers in the offseason. A one-trick pony capable of stretching defenses, Simpson caught 48 passes for 726 yards and a touchdown last year with the Vikings. In San Francisco, he will serve as a deep threat behind starters Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith provided he beats out Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington and rookie DeAndre Smelter for that role. Since Simpson’s career highs are 50 receptions, 726 yards and four touchdowns and he has caught just 145 of 286 targets during his career, he isn’t a player that we can recommend adding to your fantasy roster.

WR Quinton Patton, WR Bruce Ellington and WR DeAndre Smelter

49ers general manager Trent Balke keeps using mid-round picks on wide receivers and keeps striking out. First it was Patton, taken in the 4th round pick in the 2013 draft. Then it was Bruce Ellington in the 4th round of the 2014 draft. And this year they drafted DeAndre Smelter in, you guessed it, the 4th round. Did we mention that they traded a conditional 4th round pick to acquire Steve Johnson (since departed) last year? And what did they do after deciding they weren’t going to re-sign Michael Crabtree? They signed Torrey Smith in free agency. That tells you all you need to know about the fantasy prospects of this trio. If you’re in a dynasty league and have a roster spot to fill, Smelter would be my pick. He is coming off an ACL injury and would have gone higher in the draft had he not suffered the injury.

TE Vernon Davis

On the plus side, Davis is entering the final year of his contract. Moving to the negatives, he is a 31-year old tight end coming off the worst year of his career who struggled with a lingering back injury for much of 2014. While Davis averaged just under 60 receptions, over 800 yards and 8.8 touchdowns during the five-year period from 2009-2013, he appeared to have lost a step last season and his role in the 49ers offense was clearly curtailed as Davis was targeted just 50 times in 13 games. With Davis entering the final year of his contract and in decline, we don’t see the 49ers increasing his role significantly in 2015, making him a low end TE2.