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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #2 (12th pick)
Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #1 (10th pick)
FFPC Best Ball (8th pick)
Dirty Dozen (3-player keeper, 12th pick)
FanEx (8th pick)
Scott Fish Bowl (12th pick)

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

Comparing Player Rankings to Average Draft Position

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DeMarco Murray

Here is DeMarco Murray running through a huge hole against his current team, the Tennessee Titans, two seasons ago. Can he regain that 2014 form? We have him ranked much higher than his ADP.

We posted our initial fantasy football player rankings last week and one of the first things I wanted to do after the dust settled is compare them to average draft position data. This way I can see which players stick out as being ranked higher or lower than the consensus fantasy football community. These players likely require a little more analysis to determine if I can justify the difference.

After fussing with some database queries to convert ADP pick data to a position ranking, here are the results. Note the rankings are before the latest news on Le’Veon Bell that he could face a 4-game suspension for missing a mandatory drug test (which is equivalent to a failed test). Oh Le’Veon, you darn fool.

We will start with the tables, identify the players with the biggest discrepancies, and then come back later to add some commentary on those players as to why they are ranked where they are.

QB

+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                  | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Andrew Luck, IND        |    1 |      1 | QB3     | +2   |
| Drew Brees, NO          |    1 |      2 | QB6     | +4   |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB       |    1 |      3 | QB2     | -1   |
| Russell Wilson, SEA     |    1 |      4 | QB4     |  0   |
| Cam Newton, CAR         |    1 |      5 | QB1     | -4   |
| Ben Roethlisberger, PIT |    2 |      6 | QB5     | -1   |
| Blake Bortles, JAC      |    2 |      7 | QB9     | +2   |
| Philip Rivers, SD       |    2 |      8 | QB11    | +3   |
| Tom Brady, NE           |    2 |      9 | QB7     | -2   |
| Eli Manning, NYG        |    3 |     10 | QB10    |  0   |
| Kirk Cousins, WAS       |    3 |     11 | QB14    | +3   |
| Carson Palmer, ARI      |    3 |     12 | QB8     | -4   |
| Ryan Tannehill, MIA     |    3 |     13 | QB21    | +8   |
| Matthew Stafford, DET   |    3 |     14 | QB18    | +4   |
| Jameis Winston, TB      |    4 |     15 | QB17    | +2   |
| Derek Carr, OAK         |    4 |     16 | QB12    | -4   |
| Andy Dalton, CIN        |    4 |     17 | QB15    | -2   |
| Matt Ryan, ATL          |    4 |     18 | QB16    | -2   |
| Jay Cutler, CHI         |    4 |     19 | QB23    | +4   |
| Tony Romo, DAL          |    4 |     20 | QB13    | -7   |
| Marcus Mariota, TEN     |    4 |     21 | QB20    | -1   |
| Tyrod Taylor, BUF       |    4 |     22 | QB19    | -3   |
| Brock Osweiler, HOU     |    5 |     24 | QB22    | -2   |
| Joe Flacco, BAL         |    5 |     26 | QB24    | -2   |
+-------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Ryan Tannehill

Ranked Lower

Tony Romo

RB

+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Le'Veon Bell, PIT     |    1 |      1 | RB1     |  0   |
| Todd Gurley, LA       |    1 |      2 | RB2     |  0   |
| Adrian Peterson, MIN  |    2 |      3 | RB4     | +1   |
| Jamaal Charles, KC    |    2 |      4 | RB7     | +3   |
| David Johnson, ARI    |    2 |      5 | RB3     | -2   |
| Matt Forte, NYJ       |    2 |      6 | RB13    | +7   |
| DeMarco Murray, TEN   |    3 |      7 | RB20    | +13  |
| C.J. Anderson, DEN    |    3 |      8 | RB16    | +8   |
| Lamar Miller, HOU     |    3 |      9 | RB6     | -3   |
| Devonta Freeman, ATL  |    3 |     10 | RB8     | -2   |
| Danny Woodhead, SD    |    3 |     11 | RB21    | +10  |
| Eddie Lacy, GB        |    4 |     12 | RB9     | -3   |
| Ezekiel Elliott, DAL  |    4 |     13 | RB5     | -8   |
| Doug Martin, TB       |    4 |     14 | RB11    | -3   |
| LeSean McCoy, BUF     |    4 |     15 | RB12    | -3   |
| Jay Ajayi, MIA        |    4 |     16 | RB24    | +8   |
| Jonathan Stewart, CAR |    4 |     17 | RB27    | +10  |
| Mark Ingram, NO       |    5 |     18 | RB10    | -8   |
| Carlos Hyde, SF       |    5 |     19 | RB17    | -2   |
| Thomas Rawls, SEA     |    5 |     20 | RB14    | -6   |
| Melvin Gordon, SD     |    5 |     21 | RB32    | +11  |
| Ameer Abdullah, DET   |    5 |     22 | RB29    | +7   |
| Dion Lewis, NE        |    5 |     23 | RB15    | -8   |
| Frank Gore, IND       |    5 |     24 | RB30    | +6   |
| T.J. Yeldon, JAC      |    5 |     25 | RB37    | +12  |
| Jeremy Hill, CIN      |    6 |     26 | RB28    | +2   |
| Ryan Mathews, PHI     |    6 |     27 | RB23    | -4   |
| Rashad Jennings, NYG  |    6 |     28 | RB36    | +8   |
| Matt Jones, WAS       |    6 |     29 | RB22    | -7   |
| Justin Forsett, BAL   |    6 |     30 | RB31    | +1   |
| Latavius Murray, OAK  |    6 |     31 | RB18    | -13  |
| Giovani Bernard, CIN  |    6 |     32 | RB26    | -6   |
+-----------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

DeMarco Murray

T.J. Yeldon

Melvin Gordon

Danny Woodhead

Jonathan Stewart

Ranked Lower

Latavius Murray

Ezekiel Elliott

WR

+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                 | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Antonio Brown, PIT     |    1 |      1 | WR1     |  0   |
| Julio Jones, ATL       |    1 |      2 | WR2     |  0   |
| Odell Beckham Jr., NYG |    1 |      3 | WR3     |  0   |
| A.J. Green, CIN        |    1 |      4 | WR5     | +1   |
| DeAndre Hopkins, HOU   |    2 |      5 | WR4     | -1   |
| Allen Robinson, JAC    |    2 |      6 | WR8     | +2   |
| Dez Bryant, DAL        |    2 |      7 | WR6     | -1   |
| Mike Evans, TB         |    2 |      8 | WR11    | +3   |
| T.Y. Hilton, IND       |    2 |      9 | WR17    | +8   |
| Amari Cooper, OAK      |    3 |     10 | WR12    | +2   |
| Jordy Nelson, GB       |    3 |     11 | WR7     | -4   |
| Brandon Marshall, NYJ  |    3 |     12 | WR13    | +1   |
| Demaryius Thomas, DEN  |    3 |     13 | WR16    | +3   |
| Larry Fitzgerald, ARI  |    3 |     14 | WR28    | +14  |
| Alshon Jeffery, CHI    |    3 |     15 | WR10    | -5   |
| Jarvis Landry, MIA     |    3 |     16 | WR15    | -1   |
| Brandin Cooks, NO      |    4 |     17 | WR14    | -3   |
| Keenan Allen, SD       |    4 |     18 | WR9     | -9   |
| Golden Tate, DET       |    4 |     19 | WR22    | +3   |
| Jeremy Maclin, KC      |    4 |     20 | WR23    | +3   |
| Doug Baldwin, SEA      |    4 |     21 | WR24    | +3   |
| Kelvin Benjamin, CAR   |    4 |     22 | WR20    | -2   |
| Julian Edelman, NE     |    4 |     23 | WR18    | -5   |
| Eric Decker, NYJ       |    4 |     24 | WR31    | +7   |
| Randall Cobb, GB       |    5 |     25 | WR19    | -6   |
| Allen Hurns, JAC       |    5 |     26 | WR26    |  0   |
| DeSean Jackson, WAS    |    5 |     27 | WR37    | +10  |
| Sammy Watkins, BUF     |    5 |     28 | WR21    | -7   |
| Markus Wheaton, PIT    |    5 |     29 | WR40    | +11  |
| Jordan Matthews, PHI   |    5 |     30 | WR27    | -3   |
| Donte Moncrief, IND    |    5 |     31 | WR29    | -2   |
| John Brown, ARI        |    5 |     32 | WR33    | +1   |
+------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Larry Fitzgerald

Markus Wheaton

DeSean Jackson

T.Y. Hilton

Ranked Lower

Keenan Allen

Sammy Watkins

TE

+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Player                      | Tier | myRank | adpRank | Dif  |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+
| Rob Gronkowski, NE          |    1 |      1 | TE1     |  0   |
| Greg Olsen, CAR             |    2 |      2 | TE3     | +1   |
| Travis Kelce, KC            |    2 |      3 | TE6     | +3   |
| Coby Fleener, NO            |    2 |      4 | TE7     | +3   |
| Jordan Reed, WAS            |    2 |      5 | TE2     | -3   |
| Delanie Walker, TEN         |    3 |      6 | TE4     | -2   |
| Julius Thomas, JAC          |    3 |      7 | TE9     | +2   |
| Tyler Eifert, CIN           |    3 |      8 | TE5     | -3   |
| Zach Ertz, PHI              |    3 |      9 | TE12    | +3   |
| Gary Barnidge, CLE          |    3 |     10 | TE8     | -2   |
| Jimmy Graham, SEA           |    3 |     11 | TE11    |  0   |
| Dwayne Allen, IND           |    4 |     12 | TE15    | +3   |
| Eric Ebron, DET             |    4 |     13 | TE18    | +5   |
| Antonio Gates, SD           |    4 |     15 | TE14    | -1   |
| Martellus Bennett, NE       |    4 |     16 | TE13    | -3   |
| Ladarius Green, PIT         |    4 |     17 | TE10    | -7   |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB |    4 |     18 | TE19    | +1   |
| Jason Witten, DAL           |    4 |     19 | TE20    | +1   |
| Jordan Cameron, MIA         |    4 |     20 | TE17    | -3   |
| Zach Miller, CHI            |    5 |     24 | TE16    | -8   |
+-----------------------------+------+--------+---------+------+

Ranked Higher

Eric Ebron

Ranked Lower

Zach Miller

Ladarius Green

Preliminary 2016 Wide Receiver Redraft Ranking Tiers

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A.J. Green

Miss out on the top two RB in your draft? No worries. It might even be better to set your team up with one of these stud WR, including the Cincinnati Bengals A.J. Green.

The last two days we posted preliminary quarterback tiers and running back tiers for the upcoming fantasy football season. Today, the longest list at 70 players, our preliminary wide receiver tiers.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other players in their own tier.

Expect detailed projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Feel free to post your feedback in the comments below, or on Facebook or Twitter.

Tier 1

A.J. Green
Antonio Brown
Julio Jones
Odell Beckham Jr.

Tier 2

Allen Robinson
DeAndre Hopkins
Dez Bryant
Mike Evans
T.Y. Hilton

Tier 3

Alshon Jeffery
Amari Cooper
Brandon Marshall
Demaryius Thomas
Jarvis Landry
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 4

Brandin Cooks
Doug Baldwin
Eric Decker
Golden Tate
Jeremy Maclin
Julian Edelman
Keenan Allen
Kelvin Benjamin

Tier 5

Allen Hurns
DeSean Jackson
Donte Moncrief
Emmanuel Sanders
John Brown
Jordan Matthews
Markus Wheaton
Randall Cobb
Sammy Watkins
Sterling Shepard ®

Tier 6

DeVante Parker
Kendall Wright
Kevin White
Marvin Jones
Michael Crabtree
Michael Floyd
Stefon Diggs
Steve Smith
Tavon Austin
Ted Ginn
Torrey Smith
Tyler Lockett
Vincent Jackson
Willie Snead

Tier 7

Bruce Ellington
Corey Coleman ®
Jerome Simpson
Kamar Aiken
Kenny Britt
Laquon Treadwell ®
Michael Thomas ®
Mike Wallace
Mohamed Sanu
Pierre Garcon
Robert Woods
Terrance Williams

Tier 8

Brandon LaFell
Danny Amendola
Dorial Green-Beckham
Jamison Crowder
Josh Doctson ®
Nelson Agholor
Rueben Randle
Sammie Coates
Travis Benjamin
Tyler Boyd ®