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Week 5 Fantasy Hockey Stock Watch

October 27, 2009 By arseneau Leave a Comment

Welcome to the second instalment of our new weekly feature, Fantasy Hockey Stock Watch. In order to keep things somewhat fresh, I’ve tried to stray away from guys mentioned by John last week, unless I think they’ve changed categories. I would still list guys such as Bobby Ryan and Eric Staal, for example, as strong buys, for the same reasons John did last week. With that in mind, let’s have a look at some new names and where they stand at this point in the season.

Buy

Sam Gagner, C, EDM – I was poking around the Yahoo Sports waiver wire the other day, and was shocked to see that Sam Gagner was only owned in 22% of pools. The guy finished last season with a bang, is scoring at a point a game pace, and is seeing regular minutes on the Oilers’ red hot top line with Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. There’s a good chance you can pick up Gagner for nothing at all, and you should jump at the chance.

Patrice Bergeron, C, BOS – Like Gagner, I mentioned Bergeron in the Filling in for Savard and Gonchar article last week. The second Savard went down with an injury I was quick to snatch Bergeron off the waiver wire. He’s still available in the vast majority of pools, and has seen his minutes increase drastically in Savard’s absence. He has 4 points and a +1 rating in his last 5 games, and has been dynamite in the faceoff circle, which can only increase his playing time. He’s also just 24 years old and has two 70+ point seasons under his belt, so this recent production looks more like a return to form than just a simple hot streak.

Alex Goligoski, D, PIT – I can’t stress this one enough. Goligoski has been a solid producer at every level at which he’s played. With Sergei Gonchar out for the foreseeable future, he should put up big numbers quarterbacking the Pens’ powerplay.

Jakub Voracek, RW, CBJ – The big Czech playmaker is starting to look like the player the Blue Jackets were hoping for when they took him with the 7th overall pick in 2007. Voracek is a big-time point producing talent, and he enjoyed a solid if unspectacular rookie campaign last year.

Derek Roy, C, BUF – Roy has yet to score this year, although he has put up 7 assists through 8 games. He’s actually shooting the puck more frequently than he did in each of the last two seasons, so it’s only a matter of time before they start going in.

James van Riemsdyk, LW, PHI – The second overall pick from 2007 looks ready to bust out, scoring at a point per game pace through his first 7.

Hold

Dustin Penner, LW, EDM – Penner is a big body who showed loads of promise as a young and emerging goal scorer before he worked himself into MacT’s doghouse. Pat Quinn seems to have figured out how to motivate Penner, and Penner is now a part of one of the top lines in hockey, with two slick playmakers Hemsky and Gagner feeding him passes. Any Penner owners will probably try and gouge you in a trade. On the flipside, it might be tough to move him for a lot with people being wary of his past. If you’ve got him, I say keep him. This pace might not continue, but I still think he’s going to finish above 30 goals and 70 points.

Craig Anderson, G, COL – Before you think that Anderson should fit into the hard sell category, have a look at his career numbers. Over his last two seasons in Florida, he posted save percentages of .935 and .924, and won 23 games despite getting only 40 starts for a non-playoff team. He was also named the OHL’s goaltender of the year in 2000-2001. He definitely has a solid resume. The Avalanche still seem more like pretenders than contenders to me, so I wouldn’t bet the farm on Anderson, but don’t dismiss him as a flash in the pan yet either. This is his first true shot at being a number one goalie, and he is running with it.

Jarret Stoll, C, LA – Stoll is now 3 seasons removed from his career-high 68 point season. He has struggled in each of his last two campaigns, but looks to have regained his form, and he’s still only 27 years old. That being said, he is still stuck on the Kings third line, so his chances to produce are limited. The jury is still out on this one.

Sell

Ales Kotalik, LW, NYR – Kotalik has been maddeningly inconsistent throughout his entire career. He is also usually on the wrong side of the plus/minus ledger. He will continue to score in bunches, and should end up with a goal total in the low 20’s, but you’re kidding yourself if you think he will keep up his current 37 goal, 82 point pace. Ship him off to the highest bidder.

Ryan Smyth, LW, LA – On pace for 41 goals and 102 points, are you kidding me? Smyth’s previous career high was 70 points, and that was 8 years ago. Smyth is a solid player, and should continue to provide great secondary scoring for a good young Kings team, but betting on players to shatter their career offensive bests at the age of 33 is a dangerous proposition. Smyth is probably way more valuable on the ice than he is in a fantasy hockey setting, so sell him to anyone in your pool who thinks otherwise.

Eric Belanger, C, MIN – Belanger has started strong, maintaining a near point per game pace to this point. He’s put up point totals in the mid-thirties for each of the last two seasons. This should be a no-brainer.

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

Breakout Class of 2010

April 8, 2009 By John Leave a Comment

Our NHL playoff pool is open for registration this week, so conditions seemed all too ideal for me to start discussing young forwards with breakout potential. An important stat to consider when drafting for any fantasy sports league, is how well players produced over the final stretch of the previous season. Many young players struggle through the start of an NHL season or two, as they acclimate themselves to the superior level of play. But it is how they finish a season that often determines how well they will perform the following year. Everyone knows about the Crosbys and Ovechkins who have done well in the second half, so let’s take a look at some of the lesser-known youngsters who produced in the last month, who should take their offensive strides into next season.

David Backes
Last 17 games: 13G-7A-20P, +4, 22 PIM
2008-09 has been a breakout year for the developing power forward, as he’s learned to use his size down low to finish passes in tight, and clean up his teammates’ rebounds. A 40G-30A-70P campaign next season is definitely attainable, and his fantasy value is higher in pools that value penalty minutes, as he’s accumulated 163 this season.

Alex Burrows
Last 25 games: 15G-11A-26P, +20, 66 PIM
Another emerging scorer fitting the prototypical power forward mould, Burrows has done it all for the Vancouver Canucks in the second half, posting solid stats across the board.

David Booth
Last 15 games: 7G-9A-16P, 5 PPG
Nearly impossible to knock off the puck, David Booth is one of several young offensive threats developed by the Florida Panthers. He could flirt with 70 points next season.

Sam Gagner
Last 18 games: 10G-11A-21P, +3
He’s embarrassed even Roberto Luongo with his sensational dekes and head fakes during shootouts, but more importantly, finally looks to be putting together a solid all-around game. Gagner may have the softest hands in the NHL.

Ryan Kesler
Last 31 games: 16G-17A-33P, +4, 23 PIM
The Canucks were fortunate enough to receive breakout seasons from a pair of forwards this year, which cushions the blow of the Sedin twins likely leaving this offseason. Kesler has a knack for lighting the lamp, and could find the net 40 times next year.

Kyle Okposo
Last 12 games: 6G-9A-15P, +2, 3 PPG
A large piece of the rebuilding puzzle in Long Island, Okposo has been relied upon as a first liner all season. He should gel nicely with John Tavares if the Isles can snag him.

Mikhail Grabovski
Last 13 games: 7G-9A-16P, 20 PIM
Undisciplined at times (especially when playing against the Habs – 54 PIMs in 6 games this season), Grabovski has shown some incredible talent with the Blue and White.

Claude Giroux
Last 13 games: 3G-10A-13P, +4
A future Lady Byng candidate, Giroux will put up more than adequate numbers in all offensive categories not named PIMs next season. The sky’s the limit in 2009-10.

Brooks Laich
Last 19 games: 6G-11A-17P, +5
Just as Gretzky and Lemieux made point producers out of average players, Brooks Laich’s career year has been the result of playing on a line with Alexander Ovechkin. As in all fantasy sports, an ugly win is still a win.

So who do you think is the most likely to bust out in 2009-10? I like Giroux, as he’s going to go late in most drafts having played only half a season. Initially he slipped down the NHL draft ranks for being somewhat smallish in stature, but his play the last couple years in the OHL, AHL, and World Juniors has been anything but small. With so many first round draft picks developing ideally over the past few years, Holmgren will have his hands full keeping all this talent in Philly. Fortunately, as a GM in sports, an over-abundance of talent is the best problem you can have.

Not especially related, but a must-see nonetheless is Edmonton Oilers’ prospect Linus Omark, perhaps a future breakout sniper, scored a sensationally creative shootout goal in an exhibition game last week. Check it out.

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

Hockey’s Homestretch

March 28, 2009 By John Leave a Comment

Alright fantasy freaks, there are two weeks left in the NHL regular season and its time to squeeze out every last fantasy point you can muster. For those of you in pools with games played limits, you want to ensure you use up every game you have remaining. And for those of you in pools where you are allowed to add/drop players, it’s time to roll up your fantasy sleeves and get your waiver hands dirty.

I made a pleasing discovery this past week when I found this year’s first overall pick, Steven Stamkos (owned in 28% of pools), on my waiver list. I scooped him up in exchange for Mikko Koivu, who could miss games down the stretch with a knee injury. Stamkos appears to be turning the corner, emerging from his potential Alexander Daigle status, as a serious offensive threat for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Several other forwards are too hot to ignore, and you may want to ride out their streaks for the rest of the season. When Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Brian Burke shipped out Nik Antropov and Dominic Moore at the trade deadline, some space opened up on the Leafs’ offense. Alexei Ponikarovsky, owned in just 25% of pools, and Mikhail Grabovski (8%) have filled this void, posting a combined 22 points in the last 6 games. Out west, the Edmonton Oilers’ Sam Gagner (31%) has had a largely disappointing season, but is slowly making up for it. The sophomore has been on fire in March, posting 16 points, including a hat-trick in a 4 point game against the Avalanche.

On defense, Anton Babchuk, Cameron Barker, and Tobias Enstrom have elevated their typical production with increased powerplay minutes. All are considered strong plays for the remainder of the season.

In net, it will probably be difficult to find a legitimate starter at this stage of the season. You’re better off playing a poor starter than no one at all, unless you are in a league that subtracts points for losses or goals against, so scan your league’s waivers accordingly. Good luck!

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

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