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Preliminary 2016 Quarterback Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 5, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Andrew Luck

We have five quarterbacks in Tier 1 of our preliminary ranking tiers, including the Indianapolis Colts Andrew Luck, looking for a big comeback off an injury plagued and ugly 2015 season.

Draft Buddy is available for the 2016 fantasy football season. Many of you are already drafting numerous redraft, best-ball and dynasty leagues (me too), so download Draft Buddy to get started down the path to hoisting your league trophy at season’s end.

In addition to providing Draft Buddy each season with player projections from FF Today, we also publish our own projections and cheatsheets right here at draftbuddy.com. Today is the day we get started on that with preliminary quarterback redraft ranking tiers.

To be clear, these are just the tiers, not the actual rankings, so do not get too hung up on where a player is relative to players in the same tier. Focus more on the tier groups themselves.

There is no commentary at this time, but as we slowly roll out our fantasy football projections and rankings for the upcoming season the basic plan is this:

  • preliminary tiers
  • rankings and projections
  • player commentary
  • ongoing adjustments and updates

With respect to the preliminary tiers, while we have knowledge about current average draft position (i.e. average rankings of players), there was no reference made to ADP creating the tiers. Also, as we dig more into the detailed rankings and projections, a few more outliers from ADP will become more prominent, which will be players we promote to target or avoid in your fantasy drafts.

Please feel free to comment below on the tiers. Who is too high? Who is too low? Who are we totally off base on? Looking forward to your feedback. Lets keep the comments constructive and cool.

Tier 1

Aaron Rodgers
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Drew Brees
Russell Wilson

Tier 2

Ben Roethlisberger
Blake Bortles
Philip Rivers
Tom Brady

Tier 3

Carson Palmer
Eli Manning
Kirk Cousins
Matthew Stafford
Ryan Tannehill

Tier 4

Alex Smith
Andy Dalton
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston
Jay Cutler
Marcus Mariota
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Tyrod Taylor

Tier 5

Blaine Gabbert
Brock Osweiler
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Teddy Bridgewater

Tier 6

Geno Smith
Jared Goff ®
Robert Griffin III
Sam Bradford

Tier 7

Jimmy Garoppolo
Josh McCown

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Screen Shot 2015-08-05 at 10.44.08 AMHere is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last week impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. The big news is of course Arian Foster’s injury. I drafted him a week ago at the 12 spot in the $350 entry Footballguys Players Championship, so that really sucks!

Otherwise there are a number of key or interesting notes out of training camps prior to the first preseason games, many of which will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Trent Richardson, Raiders

Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR Breshad Perriman is currently limited with a bruised knee. The more time he misses, the less likely he can make an immediate impact, although a couple rookies (Beckham, Bryant) did pretty well last season after sitting the first third of the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills QB situation is a muddled mess of low expectations regardless of who wins the starting job, but we need to know and the tea leaves suggest it is Matt Cassel right now based on experience.

Carolina Panthers

WR Stephen Hill was placed on IR, ending his comeback.

Chicago Bears

Kevin White is sidelined with a shin injury suffered during OTAs. He’s on the PUP (preseason version, no immediate panic necessary), but it isn’t looking good for him to be in the starting lineup anytime soon at this point. Eddie Royal gets a boost.

Cleveland Browns

RB Terrance West has a calf injury, while rookie Duke Johnson has a hamstring injury. The only one not complaining and perhaps due a bump up our rankings (?) is Isaiah Crowell.

Dallas Cowboys

A lot can change rather quickly, but the highly coveted starting RB job appears to be Joseph Randle’s to lose at this point. Darren McFadden is already dinged up.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell is rehabbing from an Achilles’ and knee injury with no set timetable to return. This appears to be a little more serious than early drafts would indicate, as news of his health was pretty quiet. Heck, didn’t we see a “1,200 yard” prediction out of Bell just a few weeks ago? Rookie Ameer Abdullah has an opportunity for a larger role in the backfield and represents a good target for a later drafted RB.

Houston Texans

The news bigger than the sum of the rest of this entire update, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury. It is serious, requiring surgery which will put him on IR-designated to return (after Week 10), as reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Behind him we prefer sophomore Alfred Blue, but they also have Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and are evaluating free agents including Pierre Thomas. Take a shot on Blue, but it could easily be a mess. Even if Foster can return, 10 weeks is a long time to hold a player on your roster (unless you have an open IR spot), so I wouldn’t even consider adding him in a draft unless the pick is really low.

No clarity on who has a leg up in this QB battle, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Hurns is ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, starting opposite Allen Robinson.

New York Giants

The team added WR James Jones, which is a bit curious since reports on Victor Cruz’ recovery are positive. Still, Jones might be worth an add in a 30-roster spot best-ball league.

New York Jets

Early indications are Geno Smith appears to be ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job.

Another rookie WR with an injury, this time Devin Smith has a punctured lung (ouch) and will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oakland Raiders

RB Trent Richardson is in danger of being released by the team. My guess is you are already way ahead of that potential transaction with respect to your fantasy team. Michael Dyer is a name to keep tabs on from the Raiders backfield.

A player intriguing me lately with positive reports out of camp and drastically lower ADP than his rookie teammate is Michael Crabtree.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Sam Bradford is cleared for 11-on-11 drills with no restrictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Martavis Bryant is out 7-10 days for now with an elbow infection. His ADP has risen steadily in recent weeks, likely to the point of him being overvalued. This should slow that down for now.

Further putting the brakes on the Bryant hype train, QB Ben Roethlisberger stated recently Markus Wheaton will start in 2-WR sets opposite Antonio Brown. The fantasy pecking order could still easily be Brown, Bryant, Wheaton, but it gives one pause from being too bullish on Bryant. And maybe Wheaton is worth a late flier here or there.

San Diego Chargers

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is apparently struggling with pass protection, which is no surprise from a rookie and will not help keep him on the field. Happy to have him in dynasty leagues but not that excited about using a 3rd round draft pick in redraft leagues to own him. More can go wrong than right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team named Doug Martin their starting tailback. This is what we expected to materialize from training camp. Hopefully it sticks, and the announcement will push his ADP up for those who have been asleep at the wheel up until now. I’ve been getting him as my third RB in drafts, most recently at the end of the 6th round in this best-ball league.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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