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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Tuesday July 10

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Stack #1
Red Sox
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Stack #2
Indians
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Stack #3
Twins

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Boston Red Sox are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.60 FanDuel and 1.97 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Yovani Gallardo TEX who after facing 116 batters is currently allowing 146% more ppa in FanDuel and 142% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.103 on FanDuel and 1.604 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.60 x 146% in FanDuel and 1.97 x 142% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.103 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack BOS RHP at home 2.60 Yovani Gallardo TEX 116 146% 3.79 1.19
Stack CLE RHP at home 2.58 Sal Romano CIN 421 118% 3.05 0.47
Stack MIN RHP at home 2.27 Ian Kennedy KCR 402 116% 2.64 0.36
Stack ATL RHP at home 2.11 Marcus Stroman TOR 242 124% 2.62 0.50
Stack MIL RHP on road 2.06 Pablo Lopez MIA 46 126% 2.59 0.54
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid CHW RHP at home 2.08 Miles Mikolas STL 440 75% 1.56 -0.52
Avoid KCR RHP on road 1.79 Aaron Slegers MIN 45 85% 1.52 -0.28
Avoid CHC RHP on road 2.24 Johnny Cueto SFG 142 66% 1.48 -0.76

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.604 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack BOS RHP at home 1.97 Yovani Gallardo TEX 116 142% 2.80 0.83
Stack CLE RHP at home 1.94 Sal Romano CIN 421 117% 2.28 0.34
Stack MIN RHP at home 1.72 Ian Kennedy KCR 402 115% 1.99 0.26
Stack MIL RHP on road 1.59 Pablo Lopez MIA 46 125% 1.98 0.39
Stack ATL RHP at home 1.60 Marcus Stroman TOR 242 121% 1.94 0.33
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid CHW RHP at home 1.60 Miles Mikolas STL 440 78% 1.26 -0.35
Avoid KCR RHP on road 1.39 Aaron Slegers MIN 45 89% 1.24 -0.16
Avoid CHC RHP on road 1.71 Johnny Cueto SFG 142 69% 1.18 -0.53

Straight Cheese – Week 5 Streaming Starting Pitchers Cahill, Guerra, Mahle

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Trevor Cahill

Oakland A’s SP Trevor Cahill, only 10% owned in fantasy baseball leagues, is a top streaming candidate for this weekend facing the Baltimore Orioles, and may be worth hanging on to for a few more starts.

Straight Cheese, your fantasy baseball week 5 streaming starting pitchers resource providing the scoop on less than desirable, questionably talented, hardly owned pitchers that you can use for a spot start to get those all-important counting stats without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for junk pitchers we can use this weekend, lets take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 4 Review

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Clayton Richard 4/27 vs. NYM 1 6.67 3 6 3 4 L 4.05 1.35
Jaime Garcia 4/28 vs. TOR 1 5 5 5 4 5 L 9.00 1.80
Daniel Mengden 4/28 at HOU 1 2.33 4 6 1 1 L 15.45 3.00
Zack Wheeler 4/29 at SD 1 5 2 6 2 9 W 3.60 1.60
Week 4 Total   4 19 14 23 10 19 1-3 6.63 1.74
Running Total   15 79 43 86 33 80 6-4 4.90 1.51

Lessons Learned

The less said about last week the better.

  • Process over Results. My results haven’t been great when evaluated by exclusively focusing on the bottom line. But when viewed line by line, I’ve uncovered matchups that have worked. I trust my process and can’t get caught up in the small sample size of 15 starts so far. Here’s a great article on Process over Results.
     
  • Upon reflection I’ve noticed that I may be putting a little too much weight on the team the pitcher is facing on not necessarily considering if the pitcher can take advantage of the situation.
     
  • Don’t put too much trust into the “unproven” guys. Two weeks ago it was Heaney. This week it was Mengden. I need to recognize that the risk is much greater with these guys.
     

With that out of the way, let’s scratch off some lottery tickets!

Week 5 Streaming Starting Pitchers

Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Monday, April 30.

RHP Trevor Cahill, OAK
Owned Y10%/E10% · vs. Baltimore Orioles – Friday, May 4

In his first three starts Cahill posted a 3.00 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 18 innings. Honestly, he should probably be owned in more than 10% of leagues at this point. If he is available in your league you should strongly consider picking him up and starting him this Friday when the free swinging Orioles come into Oakland. I’ve picked on the O’s in previous columns and I will continue to pick on them when they are dead last in MLB with a 31.2 K% vs. RHP on the road. When they do manage to not strikeout they are posting a .301 wOBA (19th) vs. RHP on the road.

So we have a team that strikes out a lot and has a lowish wOBA vs. RHP on the road. What I like even more about this matchup is that Cahill is limiting hitters to a very low .272 wOBA and he is striking them out to the tune of 27.1 K%. Take advantage this Friday and seriously contemplate hanging on to Cahill for a few more starts.

RHP Junior Guerra, MIL
Owned Y41%/E32% · vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Friday, May 4

The wheels will fall off of the Guerra bandwagon eventually. Through his first four starts he is sporting a double-take inducing 0.82 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 22 innings. Looking deeper and an unsustainable .232 BABIP, 39.6 GB% and 0.0 HR/FB% jump out and point at his 4.26 xFIP… dude is living on borrowed time. Which is exactly what you want to do with Junior. Borrow him for this Friday’s start against the Pirates.

On one hand you have Pittsburgh, who currently carry a .272 wOBA (28th) and 23.6 K% (16th) vs. RHP on the road. On the other hand you have Guerra, who is holding hitters to a .240 wOBA and striking them out 23.9% of the time. Put both hands together and pray that Guerra continues his wizardly ways and postpones the inevitable for one more start this weekend.

RHP Tyler Mahle, CIN
Owned Y18%/E11% · vs. Miami Marlins – Saturday, May 5

Okay, I know I said that I learned my lesson and to not put too much faith in “unproven” guys… but, I’ve said it before and I’m saying it here again: the Marlins suck. In 12 road games this season they’ve scored 39 runs (3.25 per game). In fact, in 8 of the 12 they scored 3 runs or less. They are a fish out of water when on the road (see what I did there?). Against RHP on the road they have a .242 wOBA (29th) and 29.5 K% (29th).

Mahle broke through a little last week when he struck out the Braves 11 times and held them to 3 hits, 2 walks and 3 earned runs in 6 innings on April 24th. The Braves don’t strike out a lot (20.2 K% / 7th in MLB). He followed that start up with another nice one in Minnesota on Sunday. He held the Twins to 4 hits, 2 walks and 1 earned run while striking out 7 in 6 1/3 innings. Although his ERA is 4.32 and WHIP is 1.32 through his first 6 starts, he does one thing quite well. He strikes people out. He has a 10.26 K/9 and 27.3 K%.

On Friday, RHP Sal Romano also gets to face the Marlins in Cincinnati but I can’t recommend him because he just doesn’t strike anyone out (4.94 K/9 and 1.4 K%).

RHP Zack Wheeler, NYM
Owned Y19%/E16% · vs. Colorado Rockies – Saturday, May 5

Yeah, I’m going to the well again. Wheeler was the only pitcher that came through for me last week and he’s got another good matchup this Saturday when the Rockies come into New York. Colorado currently has a .241 wOBA (30th – worse than Miami!) and a 23.6 K% (19th) vs. RHP on the road. As of Monday they hadn’t scored more than two runs in their last six road games.

Wheeler comes in with a 4.09 ERA, 3.99 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 22 innings over his first 4 starts in 2018. He’s currently holding hitters to a .299 wOBA and striking them out 22.1% of the time. Wheel him out there again and hope for the best!