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Stack #2

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Stack #3

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Boston Red Sox are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.60 FanDuel and 1.97 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Yovani Gallardo TEX who after facing 116 batters is currently allowing 146% more ppa in FanDuel and 142% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.103 on FanDuel and 1.604 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.60 x 146% in FanDuel and 1.97 x 142% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.103 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday
Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stack | BOS | RHP at home | 2.60 | Yovani Gallardo TEX | 116 | 146% | 3.79 | 1.19 |
Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 2.58 | Sal Romano CIN | 421 | 118% | 3.05 | 0.47 |
Stack | MIN | RHP at home | 2.27 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 402 | 116% | 2.64 | 0.36 |
Stack | ATL | RHP at home | 2.11 | Marcus Stroman TOR | 242 | 124% | 2.62 | 0.50 |
Stack | MIL | RHP on road | 2.06 | Pablo Lopez MIA | 46 | 126% | 2.59 | 0.54 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Avoid | CHW | RHP at home | 2.08 | Miles Mikolas STL | 440 | 75% | 1.56 | -0.52 |
Avoid | KCR | RHP on road | 1.79 | Aaron Slegers MIN | 45 | 85% | 1.52 | -0.28 |
Avoid | CHC | RHP on road | 2.24 | Johnny Cueto SFG | 142 | 66% | 1.48 | -0.76 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.604 points per plate appearance (ppa) through yesterday
Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stack | BOS | RHP at home | 1.97 | Yovani Gallardo TEX | 116 | 142% | 2.80 | 0.83 |
Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 1.94 | Sal Romano CIN | 421 | 117% | 2.28 | 0.34 |
Stack | MIN | RHP at home | 1.72 | Ian Kennedy KCR | 402 | 115% | 1.99 | 0.26 |
Stack | MIL | RHP on road | 1.59 | Pablo Lopez MIA | 46 | 125% | 1.98 | 0.39 |
Stack | ATL | RHP at home | 1.60 | Marcus Stroman TOR | 242 | 121% | 1.94 | 0.33 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Avoid | CHW | RHP at home | 1.60 | Miles Mikolas STL | 440 | 78% | 1.26 | -0.35 |
Avoid | KCR | RHP on road | 1.39 | Aaron Slegers MIN | 45 | 89% | 1.24 | -0.16 |
Avoid | CHC | RHP on road | 1.71 | Johnny Cueto SFG | 142 | 69% | 1.18 | -0.53 |