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BABIP Stats For Hitters: 2011

March 13, 2012 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Last year I posted BABIP stats for hitters. BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls In Play. I still have the database queries sitting here in a text file which just need a minor tweak or two to update them for 2011. So let’s do it then. Check the prior year post for details about BABIP and why it is useful in your fantasy baseball analysis.

Here are hitter BABIP stats from 2011, starting with the top 38 BABIP results, minimum 400 at-bats. The AVG is the player’s 2011 batting average.

+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player           | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Matt Kemp        |  601 | 0.324 | 0.380 |
| Adrian Gonzalez  |  630 | 0.338 | 0.380 |
| Emilio Bonifacio |  565 | 0.296 | 0.372 |
| Michael Bourn    |  656 | 0.294 | 0.369 |
| Michael Young    |  631 | 0.338 | 0.367 |
| Alex Avila       |  464 | 0.295 | 0.366 |
| Miguel Cabrera   |  572 | 0.344 | 0.365 |
| Hunter Pence     |  606 | 0.314 | 0.361 |
| Alex Gordon      |  611 | 0.303 | 0.358 |
| Dexter Fowler    |  481 | 0.266 | 0.354 |
| Jose Reyes       |  537 | 0.337 | 0.353 |
| Ryan Braun       |  563 | 0.332 | 0.350 |
| Jemile Weeks     |  406 | 0.303 | 0.350 |
| Joey Votto       |  599 | 0.309 | 0.349 |
| Andre Ethier     |  487 | 0.290 | 0.346 |
| Michael Morse    |  522 | 0.303 | 0.344 |
| Starlin Castro   |  674 | 0.307 | 0.344 |
| Victor Martinez  |  540 | 0.330 | 0.343 |
| Drew Stubbs      |  604 | 0.243 | 0.343 |
| Gerardo Parra    |  445 | 0.292 | 0.342 |
| Austin Jackson   |  591 | 0.249 | 0.340 |
| Jon Jay          |  455 | 0.297 | 0.340 |
| Freddie Freeman  |  571 | 0.282 | 0.339 |
| Howie Kendrick   |  537 | 0.285 | 0.338 |
| Peter Bourjos    |  502 | 0.271 | 0.338 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury  |  660 | 0.321 | 0.336 |
| Derek Jeter      |  546 | 0.297 | 0.336 |
| Casey Kotchman   |  500 | 0.306 | 0.335 |
| Jamey Carroll    |  452 | 0.290 | 0.332 |
| Melky Cabrera    |  658 | 0.305 | 0.332 |
| Cameron Maybin   |  515 | 0.264 | 0.331 |
| Matt Holliday    |  446 | 0.296 | 0.330 |
| Todd Helton      |  421 | 0.302 | 0.328 |
| Carlos Gonzalez  |  481 | 0.295 | 0.326 |
| Jhonny Peralta   |  525 | 0.299 | 0.325 |
| Dustin Pedroia   |  635 | 0.307 | 0.325 |
| Greg Dobbs       |  411 | 0.275 | 0.325 |
| Carlos Beltran   |  520 | 0.300 | 0.324 |

Here are the lowest 39 BABIP results from 2011, minimum 400 at-bats.

+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player              | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Vernon Wells        |  505 | 0.218 | 0.214 |
| Alex Rios           |  537 | 0.227 | 0.237 |
| Mark Teixeira       |  589 | 0.248 | 0.239 |
| Evan Longoria       |  483 | 0.244 | 0.239 |
| Adam Dunn           |  415 | 0.159 | 0.240 |
| Ian Kinsler         |  620 | 0.255 | 0.243 |
| Kurt Suzuki         |  460 | 0.237 | 0.244 |
| Casey McGehee       |  546 | 0.223 | 0.249 |
| Russell Martin      |  417 | 0.237 | 0.252 |
| Dan Uggla           |  600 | 0.233 | 0.253 |
| J.P. Arencibia      |  443 | 0.219 | 0.255 |
| Orlando Cabrera     |  450 | 0.238 | 0.259 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |  556 | 0.252 | 0.259 |
| Carlos Quentin      |  421 | 0.254 | 0.261 |
| Brent Morel         |  413 | 0.245 | 0.262 |
| Carlos Santana      |  552 | 0.239 | 0.263 |
| Adam Lind           |  499 | 0.251 | 0.265 |
| Logan Morrison      |  462 | 0.247 | 0.265 |
| Alfonso Soriano     |  475 | 0.244 | 0.266 |
| Mark Reynolds       |  534 | 0.221 | 0.266 |
| Martin Prado        |  551 | 0.260 | 0.266 |
| Carlos Pena         |  493 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Colby Rasmus        |  471 | 0.225 | 0.267 |
| Raul Ibanez         |  535 | 0.245 | 0.268 |
| John Buck           |  466 | 0.227 | 0.268 |
| Aaron Hill          |  520 | 0.246 | 0.268 |
| Miguel Olivo        |  477 | 0.224 | 0.270 |
| Aubrey Huff         |  521 | 0.246 | 0.271 |
| Ty Wigginton        |  401 | 0.242 | 0.271 |
| Justin Smoak        |  427 | 0.234 | 0.273 |
| Adrian Beltre       |  487 | 0.296 | 0.273 |
| J.J. Hardy          |  527 | 0.269 | 0.273 |
| David DeJesus       |  442 | 0.240 | 0.274 |
| Mark Trumbo         |  539 | 0.254 | 0.274 |
| Hideki Matsui       |  517 | 0.251 | 0.274 |
| Ryan Roberts        |  482 | 0.249 | 0.275 |
| Danny Valencia      |  564 | 0.246 | 0.275 |
| Jimmy Rollins       |  567 | 0.268 | 0.275 |
| Chris Young         |  567 | 0.236 | 0.275 |

Here are the 26 biggest positive differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Did these guys exceed expectations last season so we might expect a correction in 2012?

+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Player            | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif   |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Adrian Gonzalez   |   630 |    0.380 |     1759 |     0.304 | 0.077 |
| Casey Kotchman    |   500 |    0.335 |     1324 |     0.262 | 0.073 |
| Alex Gordon       |   611 |    0.358 |      899 |     0.289 | 0.070 |
| Hunter Pence      |   606 |    0.361 |     1794 |     0.304 | 0.057 |
| Jose Bautista     |   513 |    0.309 |     1275 |     0.256 | 0.053 |
| Emilio Bonifacio  |   565 |    0.372 |      810 |     0.319 | 0.052 |
| Melky Cabrera     |   658 |    0.332 |     1357 |     0.283 | 0.050 |
| Matt Kemp         |   601 |    0.380 |     1814 |     0.334 | 0.046 |
| Jose Reyes        |   537 |    0.353 |     1398 |     0.309 | 0.043 |
| Edwin Encarnacion |   481 |    0.292 |     1131 |     0.251 | 0.042 |
| Michael Young     |   631 |    0.367 |     1842 |     0.327 | 0.040 |
| David Ortiz       |   525 |    0.321 |     1475 |     0.281 | 0.040 |
| Jeff Francoeur    |   601 |    0.323 |     1646 |     0.284 | 0.038 |
| Michael Bourn     |   656 |    0.369 |     1608 |     0.331 | 0.037 |
| Brandon Phillips  |   610 |    0.322 |     1769 |     0.285 | 0.037 |
| Victor Martinez   |   540 |    0.343 |     1347 |     0.307 | 0.036 |
| Andre Ethier      |   487 |    0.346 |     1638 |     0.313 | 0.033 |
| Miguel Cabrera    |   572 |    0.365 |     1775 |     0.331 | 0.033 |
| Seth Smith        |   476 |    0.320 |      801 |     0.290 | 0.030 |
| Carlos Ruiz       |   410 |    0.308 |     1013 |     0.281 | 0.027 |
| Jhonny Peralta    |   525 |    0.325 |     1738 |     0.299 | 0.026 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury   |   660 |    0.336 |     1256 |     0.314 | 0.022 |
| Ben Zobrist       |   588 |    0.310 |     1240 |     0.290 | 0.020 |
| Dexter Fowler     |   481 |    0.354 |      898 |     0.335 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Braun        |   563 |    0.350 |     1865 |     0.330 | 0.020 |
| Ronny Cedeno      |   413 |    0.313 |     1025 |     0.293 | 0.019 |

Here are the 35 biggest negative differences between 2011 BABIP and 2008-2010 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2011 and 800 at-bats in 2008-2010. Should we expect a reversal of fortune in 2012 for these players?

+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Player           | 11_AB | 11_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif    |
+------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Evan Longoria    |   483 |    0.239 |     1606 |     0.321 | -0.082 |
| Martin Prado     |   551 |    0.266 |     1277 |     0.338 | -0.072 |
| Alex Rios        |   537 |    0.237 |     1784 |     0.304 | -0.067 |
| Vernon Wells     |   505 |    0.214 |     1647 |     0.280 | -0.066 |
| Adam Dunn        |   415 |    0.240 |     1621 |     0.304 | -0.064 |
| Casey McGehee    |   546 |    0.249 |      989 |     0.313 | -0.064 |
| Ichiro Suzuki    |   677 |    0.295 |     2005 |     0.356 | -0.061 |
| Mark Teixeira    |   589 |    0.239 |     1784 |     0.296 | -0.057 |
| David DeJesus    |   442 |    0.274 |     1428 |     0.331 | -0.057 |
| Dan Uggla        |   600 |    0.253 |     1684 |     0.308 | -0.055 |
| Angel Pagan      |   478 |    0.285 |     1013 |     0.337 | -0.052 |
| Miguel Olivo     |   477 |    0.270 |     1090 |     0.322 | -0.052 |
| Ian Kinsler      |   620 |    0.243 |     1475 |     0.294 | -0.051 |
| Kevin Youkilis   |   431 |    0.296 |     1391 |     0.342 | -0.047 |
| Colby Rasmus     |   471 |    0.267 |      938 |     0.314 | -0.047 |
| Omar Infante     |   579 |    0.298 |      991 |     0.343 | -0.044 |
| Russell Martin   |   417 |    0.252 |     1389 |     0.295 | -0.043 |
| Mark Reynolds    |   534 |    0.266 |     1616 |     0.309 | -0.043 |
| Kelly Johnson    |   545 |    0.277 |     1435 |     0.319 | -0.042 |
| Raul Ibanez      |   535 |    0.268 |     1696 |     0.309 | -0.041 |
| Jayson Werth     |   561 |    0.286 |     1543 |     0.327 | -0.041 |
| Matt Wieters     |   500 |    0.276 |      800 |     0.317 | -0.041 |
| Jason Bartlett   |   553 |    0.292 |     1422 |     0.332 | -0.041 |
| Adam Lind        |   499 |    0.265 |     1482 |     0.305 | -0.040 |
| John Buck        |   466 |    0.268 |      965 |     0.306 | -0.038 |
| Orlando Cabrera  |   450 |    0.259 |     1811 |     0.297 | -0.038 |
| Kurt Suzuki      |   460 |    0.244 |     1595 |     0.279 | -0.035 |
| Albert Pujols    |   579 |    0.277 |     1679 |     0.311 | -0.034 |
| Josh Hamilton    |   487 |    0.317 |     1478 |     0.350 | -0.033 |
| Nelson Cruz      |   475 |    0.288 |      976 |     0.321 | -0.033 |
| Justin Upton     |   592 |    0.319 |     1377 |     0.351 | -0.032 |
| Cody Ross        |   405 |    0.279 |     1545 |     0.310 | -0.032 |
| Nick Markakis    |   641 |    0.300 |     1866 |     0.332 | -0.032 |
| Johnny Damon     |   582 |    0.284 |     1644 |     0.316 | -0.032 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera |   604 |    0.302 |     1256 |     0.333 | -0.032 |

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Feeling Lucky? BABIP Stats for Hitters

February 16, 2011 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

It is difficult to find a fantasy baseball article these days that doesn’t mention BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play. If you aren’t sure what BABIP is, there are a few resources which already give a great description and provide little need for me to recreate the wheel. Start with Everything you wanted to know about BABIP from Alex Remmington in his blog over at Yahoo! You can follow that up with the library at FanGraphs and even WikiPedia if you like.

In a nutshell, BABIP strips out home runs and strikeouts from batting average, to show what percentage of balls go for hits that stay in the field of play. The metric can be measured for hitters and pitchers. The point of this exercise is to show what players might have been lucky or unlucky with the result of the balls they put (hitters) or allowed (pitchers) to land in fair territory, inside the fence.

Since the two determining factors on whether a ball in play goes for a hit or not is (1) defense and (2) luck, two things the hitter or pitcher has little control over, then abnormally high or low BABIP may identify some players who are due for a correction from their prior results. Were they just unlucky and should do better going forward? Were they lucky posting that career batting average a year ago?

While pitchers tend to have an average BABIP between .290 and .300, hitters can influence their BABIP to a greater degree, to the point where comparison against their own career average BABIP may be more useful than comparison to a league average.

Okay, let’s move on to some stats. The more articles I read that mentioned BABIP, the more the thought finally triggered in my mind that, hey, we don’t have these stats on the website. I can certainly calculate them though with our handy player stats database.

Here are hitter BABIP stats from 2010, starting with the top 28 BABIP results, minimum 400 at-bats. The AVG is the player’s 2010 batting average.

+-----------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player          | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+-----------------+------+-------+-------+
| Austin Jackson  |  618 | 0.293 | 0.396 |
| Josh Hamilton   |  518 | 0.359 | 0.390 |
| Carlos Gonzalez |  587 | 0.336 | 0.384 |
| Joey Votto      |  547 | 0.324 | 0.361 |
| Omar Infante    |  471 | 0.321 | 0.355 |
| Colby Rasmus    |  464 | 0.276 | 0.354 |
| Justin Upton    |  495 | 0.273 | 0.354 |
| Ichiro Suzuki   |  680 | 0.315 | 0.353 |
| Jayson Werth    |  554 | 0.296 | 0.352 |
| Joe Mauer       |  510 | 0.327 | 0.348 |
| Shin-Soo Choo   |  550 | 0.300 | 0.347 |
| Starlin Castro  |  463 | 0.300 | 0.346 |
| Austin Kearns   |  403 | 0.263 | 0.344 |
| Carl Crawford   |  600 | 0.307 | 0.342 |
| Billy Butler    |  595 | 0.318 | 0.341 |
| Brett Gardner   |  477 | 0.277 | 0.340 |
| Neil Walker     |  426 | 0.296 | 0.340 |
| Jose Tabata     |  405 | 0.299 | 0.339 |
| Kelly Johnson   |  585 | 0.284 | 0.339 |
| Scott Podsednik |  539 | 0.297 | 0.338 |
| Miguel Cabrera  |  548 | 0.328 | 0.336 |
| Evan Longoria   |  574 | 0.294 | 0.336 |
| Marlon Byrd     |  580 | 0.293 | 0.335 |
| David Wright    |  587 | 0.283 | 0.335 |
| Jason Heyward   |  520 | 0.277 | 0.335 |
| Nick Swisher    |  566 | 0.288 | 0.335 |
| Martin Prado    |  599 | 0.307 | 0.335 |
| John Buck       |  409 | 0.281 | 0.335 |
+-----------------+------+-------+-------+

Here are the lowest 26 BABIP results from 2010, minimum 400 at-bats.

+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Player              | AB   | AVG   | BABIP |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+
| Aaron Hill          |  528 | 0.205 | 0.196 |
| Carlos Pena         |  484 | 0.196 | 0.222 |
| Pedro Feliz         |  409 | 0.218 | 0.228 |
| Casey Kotchman      |  414 | 0.217 | 0.229 |
| Jose Bautista       |  569 | 0.260 | 0.233 |
| Carlos Lee          |  605 | 0.246 | 0.238 |
| Carlos Quentin      |  453 | 0.243 | 0.241 |
| Kurt Suzuki         |  495 | 0.242 | 0.245 |
| Aramis Ramirez      |  465 | 0.241 | 0.245 |
| Brendan Ryan        |  439 | 0.223 | 0.253 |
| Jose Lopez          |  593 | 0.239 | 0.254 |
| Jerry Hairston, Jr. |  430 | 0.244 | 0.255 |
| Juan Uribe          |  521 | 0.248 | 0.256 |
| Cesar Izturis       |  473 | 0.230 | 0.257 |
| Mark Reynolds       |  499 | 0.198 | 0.257 |
| Juan Rivera         |  416 | 0.252 | 0.261 |
| Alcides Escobar     |  506 | 0.235 | 0.264 |
| Yuniesky Betancourt |  556 | 0.259 | 0.267 |
| Mark Teixeira       |  601 | 0.256 | 0.268 |
| Alberto Callaspo    |  562 | 0.265 | 0.269 |
| Ty Wigginton        |  581 | 0.248 | 0.270 |
| Jeff Francoeur      |  454 | 0.249 | 0.270 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff    |  551 | 0.247 | 0.270 |
| Vernon Wells        |  590 | 0.273 | 0.272 |
| Shane Victorino     |  587 | 0.259 | 0.273 |
| Ben Zobrist         |  541 | 0.238 | 0.273 |
+---------------------+------+-------+-------+

Here are the 29 biggest positive differences between 2010 BABIP and 2007-2009 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2010 and 800 at-bats in 2007-2009. Did these guys sleep with a shamrock under their pillow or carry a rabbit’s foot to the plate in 2010?

+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Player          | 10_AB | 10_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif   |
+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+
| Austin Kearns   |   403 |    0.344 |     1074 |     0.279 | 0.066 |
| John Buck       |   409 |    0.335 |      903 |     0.269 | 0.066 |
| Josh Hamilton   |   518 |    0.390 |     1258 |     0.325 | 0.065 |
| Paul Konerko    |   548 |    0.326 |     1533 |     0.265 | 0.061 |
| Nick Swisher    |   566 |    0.335 |     1534 |     0.275 | 0.060 |
| Rickie Weeks    |   651 |    0.332 |     1031 |     0.286 | 0.046 |
| Mark Ellis      |   436 |    0.321 |     1402 |     0.278 | 0.043 |
| Adrian Beltre   |   589 |    0.331 |     1601 |     0.290 | 0.041 |
| Dan Uggla       |   589 |    0.330 |     1727 |     0.289 | 0.041 |
| Adam Dunn       |   558 |    0.329 |     1585 |     0.296 | 0.033 |
| Ryan Zimmerman  |   525 |    0.334 |     1691 |     0.304 | 0.030 |
| Stephen Drew    |   565 |    0.321 |     1687 |     0.293 | 0.027 |
| Brandon Inge    |   514 |    0.305 |     1417 |     0.279 | 0.026 |
| Kelly Johnson   |   585 |    0.339 |     1371 |     0.314 | 0.025 |
| Evan Longoria   |   574 |    0.336 |     1032 |     0.312 | 0.024 |
| Jayson Werth    |   554 |    0.352 |     1244 |     0.328 | 0.024 |
| Billy Butler    |   595 |    0.341 |     1380 |     0.319 | 0.022 |
| Adrian Gonzalez |   591 |    0.322 |     1814 |     0.302 | 0.021 |
| Chris Young     |   584 |    0.296 |     1627 |     0.277 | 0.020 |
| Ryan Howard     |   550 |    0.332 |     1755 |     0.311 | 0.020 |
| Corey Hart      |   558 |    0.324 |     1536 |     0.305 | 0.019 |
| Luke Scott      |   447 |    0.304 |     1293 |     0.286 | 0.018 |
| Scott Podsednik |   539 |    0.338 |      913 |     0.320 | 0.017 |
| Jason Kendall   |   434 |    0.280 |     1434 |     0.265 | 0.016 |
| Robinson Cano   |   626 |    0.326 |     1851 |     0.312 | 0.014 |
| Freddy Sanchez  |   431 |    0.330 |     1628 |     0.316 | 0.014 |
| Andre Ethier    |   517 |    0.322 |     1568 |     0.308 | 0.014 |
| Justin Upton    |   495 |    0.354 |     1022 |     0.340 | 0.014 |
| David Ortiz     |   518 |    0.313 |     1506 |     0.299 | 0.014 |
+-----------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+-------+

Here are the 25 biggest negative differences between 2010 BABIP and 2007-2009 BABIP, minimum 400 at-bats in 2010 and 800 at-bats in 2007-2009. Did these guys spill some salt or break a mirror heading into last season?

+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Player            | 10_AB | 10_BABIP | 3year_AB | 3yr_BABIP | Dif    |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+
| Aaron Hill        |   528 |    0.196 |     1495 |     0.304 | -0.109 |
| Mark Reynolds     |   499 |    0.257 |     1483 |     0.343 | -0.086 |
| Matt Kemp         |   602 |    0.295 |     1504 |     0.364 | -0.069 |
| Aramis Ramirez    |   465 |    0.245 |     1366 |     0.313 | -0.068 |
| Carlos Pena       |   484 |    0.222 |     1451 |     0.283 | -0.061 |
| Casey Kotchman    |   414 |    0.229 |     1353 |     0.286 | -0.056 |
| Carlos Lee        |   605 |    0.238 |     1673 |     0.292 | -0.055 |
| Denard Span       |   629 |    0.294 |      925 |     0.348 | -0.054 |
| Mark Teixeira     |   601 |    0.268 |     1677 |     0.318 | -0.050 |
| Derek Jeter       |   663 |    0.307 |     1869 |     0.356 | -0.049 |
| Howie Kendrick    |   616 |    0.313 |     1052 |     0.358 | -0.045 |
| Kurt Suzuki       |   495 |    0.245 |     1313 |     0.290 | -0.045 |
| Jose Bautista     |   569 |    0.233 |     1238 |     0.278 | -0.045 |
| Chone Figgins     |   602 |    0.314 |     1510 |     0.359 | -0.045 |
| Skip Schumaker    |   476 |    0.294 |     1249 |     0.339 | -0.044 |
| Yunel Escobar     |   497 |    0.282 |     1361 |     0.326 | -0.044 |
| B.J. Upton        |   536 |    0.304 |     1565 |     0.345 | -0.041 |
| Curtis Granderson |   466 |    0.277 |     1796 |     0.317 | -0.040 |
| Alex Rodriguez    |   522 |    0.274 |     1537 |     0.313 | -0.039 |
| Jhonny Peralta    |   551 |    0.275 |     1761 |     0.315 | -0.039 |
| Pedro Feliz       |   409 |    0.228 |     1562 |     0.266 | -0.039 |
| Shane Victorino   |   587 |    0.273 |     1646 |     0.311 | -0.038 |
| Jeff Francoeur    |   454 |    0.270 |     1834 |     0.306 | -0.037 |
| Michael Young     |   656 |    0.311 |     1825 |     0.346 | -0.036 |
| Bobby Abreu       |   573 |    0.296 |     1777 |     0.331 | -0.035 |
+-------------------+-------+----------+----------+-----------+--------+

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