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MLB Top Prospects at Third Base – Michael Chivas, Austin Riley, J.D. Davis

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MLB top prospects at third base - Michael Chavis

Rick covers the MLB top prospects at third base for us, with a eye to the future for you dynasty league baseball players. Boston Red Sox Michael Chavis may not end up as a 3B, but will slug his way into the lineup.

Is a third baseman a guy not slick enough to handle shortstop or too agile to get stuck at first base? Does he end up at the hot corner because he’s blocked at his normal position or is he a natural at the position?

Many guys are classified at a certain position, but the parent club knows they will eventually end up playing another position once they hit The Bigs. I discussed several MLB top prospects at third base in previous articles (shortstop, first base), currently playing other positions, like Fernando Tatis Jr., Ryan Mountcastle, Kevin Maitan and Carter Kieboom.

Other projected players for the hot corner, who probably aren’t available in your fantasy baseball league already, are:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR – future stud, and estimated call up whether later this season or next is a hotly debated topic in Toronto

Nick Senzel, CIN – will play 2B in short term, but I believe he’ll be at 3B by the start of 2019

Colin Moran, PIT – will put up a good batting average, but don’t expect much power

Miguel Andujar, NYY – keeps bouncing back and forth between the Bronx and triple-A

Ryan McMahon, COL – discussed him with first basemen since he will likely not see much time at third

So who is available in your league? The elite guys aren’t ready for prime time, many of them are still more than a couple of years away. The only guys around who could be much help in the near future are Brian Anderson (solid all-around hitter, but plays for the pitiful Marlins) and Christian Arroyo (good contact and speed, little power). Unfortunately, there isn’t much else on the horizon for 2018.

On the Way

Austin Riley, ATL

Austin Riley is the Atlanta Braves third baseman of the future… they hope. They are holding the position open for him and are only waiting for Riley to add another year of size and experience before they hand him the reins to the hot corner. Riley’s got big time raw power and has even flexed those muscles in his first two full pro seasons, hitting 20 homers in each. The Braves seem determined to keep him at third, despite him making a lot of errors along the way. He sacrifices average for power, but should be a good play starting in 2019.

Michael Chavis, BOS

Michael Chavis has huge power that was put on display last season. He lit up A+ and AA to the tune of 31 homers. Chavis won’t hit for a high average and don’t expect stolen bases, but the power output is what you are buying here. His lack of ability with the glove project him for a position change, but the slugger will be in the lineup somewhere. Look for him to start playing at Fenway Park next year, and for a long time after.

Nolan Jones, CLE

Nolan Jones has a very quick bat and a great approach at the plate. The power will play well at third base, but the batting average will be better and there is very little speed on the base paths. Jones will make his MLB mark starting in 2020 and has the potential to be a very successful hitter.

Playing the Angle

J.D. Davis, HOU

J.D. Davis was buried on the Houston Astros depth chart because Alex Bregman was pushed to third base and Carlos Correa had shortstop locked down and he still had Colin Moran ahead of him.

With Moran’s trade to Pittsburgh and Davis’ ability to play a few positions, he has been able to steal some at bats here and there. Davis has serious power in his bat but he swings and misses too much, sacrificing average for power. He has a cannon for an arm, making him a good choice to also play the outfield corners. Unfortunately, Houston is so stacked with quality bats that Davis can’t break through and seems to need a Moran-like trade out of Houston to get the opportunity to show his stuff.

Stay Away

Renato Nunez, OAK

Renato Nunez already has 50 MLB at bats, so he’s not exactly a prospect any more. He has real power, but he misses way too often and his glove is slightly south of awful. He could figure it out and become a real power hitter, but he’s more likely to struggle mightily against Major League pitching whenever given the chance.

Tip of the Week

Eugenio Suarez has quietly been putting up good numbers in Cincinnati. For those who pay close attention, he’s not exactly a surprise. I think he’ll get enough at bats at shortstop this season to gain eligibility at that position too.

Fantasy Baseball Prospects Dynasty Watch – First Base

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Fantasy baseball prospects - Peter Alonso, Mets

Welcome Rick to the team. He specializes in digging for fantasy baseball prospects for dynasty leagues, such as future New York Mets 1B Peter Alonso, currently playing Double-A for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

Always looking for the “next big thing”, I have a lot of experience scavenging the minors for the next impact fantasy baseball prospects. I’m hoping to use this weekly space to provide owners with some targets and big-picture tips throughout the 2018 campaign. Since few prospects make an impact in their rookie season, I will usually focus on keepers for the future.

We all want to find the next Albert Pujols, the guy who seemed to come out of nowhere and built a Hall of Fame career, starting with his rookie campaign where he bashed his way to .327/37/130 while qualifying at three positions.

Unfortunately those guys don’t grow on trees, otherwise they wouldn’t be called generational players. Ronald Acuna is probably that next guy (minus the position flexibility), but he likely isn’t available in your league since the hype surrounding him is so great. Which is the problem…

So who is available in your league? Well it mostly depends on the number of teams, roster spots per team and the rules your fantasy league utilizes. I usually play dynasty leagues, since it allows me to grab youngsters, follow them up to The Show and then help lead me to the title. You usually have to take a few risks along the way, but there are ways to minimize those risks and still profit from keen pickups.

Power Outage at First Base

Looking back, it always seemed like every MLB team had a masher at first base. You know, the guy who looked more like an offensive lineman than a baseball player and they seemed to grow on every Major League tree. That guy could catch well enough to not hurt your team at 1B, but probably was better suited for the DH role. What he brought to the table was a slugging percentage around .600 and the homers and ribbies that was the nucleus of your fantasy lineup.

Today it seems like power hitting first basemen are few and far between, and deeper leagues mean getting creative on finding your guy. Often, MLB teams will move a third baseman who isn’t quick enough to handle the hot corner or an outfielder who doesn’t have tracking ability or speed to first base. So scanning the lower minors for true first basemen isn’t always the answer. Players usually end up playing at least part time at 1B by the time they get to the upper end of the minor league system, so there are signs of where they are likely to end up.

Prospects Watch

Bobby Bradley (Indians) and Ryan McMahon (Rockies) are the guys you probably know about. Bradley will be a better power threat but McMahon will post a better average. Both will be studs and should not be on your waiver wire if you can keep them for the next few years. McMahon has been sitting on the Colorado bench this season and has struggled in his few at bats so far (1 for 20, 10 K) so maybe his owner is souring on him. It could be time to move in with an offer. Bradley is in Double-A, so he will not be up until next year in all likelihood.

Other guys with notable names are Brendan McKay (Rays), Nick Pratto (Royals), Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks) and Evan White (Mariners). They are all highly touted but are too far down the minor league pipeline to help you in the next few years. Guys that far away can sometimes go off the rails and not pan out, so I like to focus on players in Double-A or higher. Three guys I like are Peter Alonso, Ronald Guzman and Josh Naylor.

Peter Alonso, NYM

Peter Alonso is going to have to navigate a minefield to get the starting first base job in Queens. But even though he has an aging Adrian Gonzalez and a young Domonic Smith ahead of him, he should be the New York Mets starting first baseman by 2020. He doesn’t walk or strikeout much and is a good contact hitter. Think of him as a right handed Eric Hosmer with fewer stolen bases.

Ronald Guzman, TEX

Ronald Guzman is the closest to the Majors. He started the season playing at Triple-A Round Rock and was called up to the Texas Rangers for a short time to fill in for injuries. But, he is also the least likely to develop into a power monster. He’s a power alley hitter who will hit for a good average. Consider him along the lines of Mark Grace.

Josh Naylor, SD

Josh Naylor is the mystery man of this group from the San Diego Padres organization. His body shape is a little un-baseball-like in that he’s under 6 foot but tilts the scales over 250, but he hits big. His batting practice shows are legendary, but he needs to be more selective to realize that power in games.

Early indications are that this might be the season where he puts it all together so stash him now before one of your league mates beats you to the punch. If he realizes his ceiling, he’ll post vintage Adrian Gonzalez-like numbers.

Patience But Not Indecision

Some of the worst advice available comes from those who recommend sitting on a fantasy squad for several weeks before making major moves. Owners who draft and then wait to see how things pan out are cautious not to overreact, but they also miss out on the breakout players.

Saving a roster spot or two for the guy who might blossom is always advisable. You don’t have roster space for all the potential breakout candidates, so you have to be very selective. You have to also be willing to cut bait on guys who don’t progress the way you need, so don’t get too attached.

Tip of the Week

If you need a first baseman right now, you might be able to pry Jose Martinez away from his owner. He’s off to a hot start and this is for real (think of a JD Martinez-like late bloomer). Make sure you throw the recent injury into your trade discussions as well as sharing playing time with Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko as reasons your league mate needs to trade Martinez to your team.

12-Team Roto Draft Recap Part Two – Best and Worst Picks

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Ryan McMahon

If anyone outside Ronald Acuna can win NL Rookie of the Year, perhaps it is Colorado Rockies infielder Ryan McMahon, which would also make him one of the best late round picks in Andy’s roto league draft.

In part one of my draft recap article, I described my 12-team 5×5 fantasy baseball league and gave some insight into my picks drafting 7th overall. I drafted Matt Scherzer, Joey Votto and Josh Donaldson with my first three picks and formed a solid Opening Day roster for the season ahead.

For part two, I thought it would be interesting to get perspective on how the draft went by other owners in the league. The group we have are all huge baseball fans and come from a variety of areas around the U.S., including Gilbert, Arizona; West Palm Beach, Florida; Kansas City, Missouri; Des Moines, Iowa; Denver, Colorado and Underwood, Iowa. We are fairly scattered, so thank goodness for the benefits of technology impacting fantasy sports!

Each owner gave me their best and worst picks of the draft. Some gave commentary – mostly to talk about the “best” picks as opposed to the “worst” – or I included my own thoughts supporting their choices.

1st pick – Des Moines, Iowa

Best Khris Davis in the 11th round. Davis has huge upside with his power but a big knock against him is strikeouts. A sub-.250 average for four straight seasons, Davis is very good one or two category player (home runs and RBI), but a big negative for batting average and little to no help on the basepaths. Even with his K’s though, Davis mocked in the Top 60 so it’s possible he provides good value in the 11th round.

Worst Rafael Devers in the 9th round. Devers doesn’t seem to be thought of too highly of by the pundits so taking him in the 9th round is early. Perhaps Adrian Beltre in at least the 12th round or later would be a better use of draft capital.

2nd pick – Gilbert, Arizona

Best Greg Bird in the 14th round. One fantasy “expert” boldly predicted Bird could hit more home runs than Giancarlo Stanton. If Stanton stays healthy, I don’t see it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bird leaves the yard 35 times this year. Unfortunately, Bird is now on the 10-day DL and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. If the ankle was 100% at draft time, then it would look like a steal in the 14th.

Worst Jake Lamb in the 12th round. I thought I needed a 3rd baseman and had Kyle Seager available but he went earlier in the round resulting in a snap-decision to take Lamb. Although he had 30 bombs last year, that is sure to drop with the humidor install at Chase Field plus he is brutal against lefties.

3rd pick – West Palm Beach, Florida

Best “I didn’t have one… Don’t like my team I drafted at all… Worst in three years.” Looking at my fellow owner’s team, he might be on to something. There isn’t a whole lot of value or star power outside of the first three rounds.

Worst Ken Giles in the 5th round. “Take your pick from many… probably Ken Giles.” I agree with him. The last time we saw Ken Giles, it was October and he was still tracking the GPS on all the baseballs that the Dodgers and Yankees were hitting all over the field. He did have a good regular season but unfortunately, we tend to remember the last thing a player is known for, which for Giles was the playoffs.

4th pick – Des Moines, Iowa

Best Xander Bogaerts in the 6th round. In the 5th round, this owner actually changed his mind and took Aroldis Chapman but then was able to still get Bogaerts in the 6th. Chapman was a better choice in the 5th no doubt but getting a solid shortstop in the 6th round in Bogaerts was a good value pick.

Worst Javy Baez in the 9th round. I think he’ll have a solid year. However, this team already had a second baseman in Rougned Odor and SS in Bogaerts. Having to put a 75/25/75/15 guy at a utlity infield spot doesn’t excite me, especially without a solid option at third base. It will also be interesting to see where Baez fits in offensively with Ian Happ pushing for time in centerfield and second base.

5th pick – Kansas City, Missouri

Best Josh Reddick in the 15th round. Yahoo listed him as the number 109 player overall. I don’t see it but if he was going on potential based on offensive protection and where he is playing 81 of his home games, he could be a steal in the 15th.

Worst Wilson Ramos in the 14th round. “I needed a catcher,” was the response on why this owner didn’t like this pick. It’s hard to argue against that sentiment until you see that outside of Gary Sanchez and to some extent Buster Posey, the catching position isn’t very strong to begin with.

6th pick – Denver, Colorado

Best Ryan McMahon in the 21st round. It’s tough to gauge what impact a rookie will have on his Major League team, but the Rockies are in win-now mode so they must have thought very highly of McMahon to keep him on the Opening Day roster. A colleague of mine actually boldy predicts him to win the NL Rookie of the Year this year. If Ronald Acuna is moved up and is as good as advertised the award could be over by May. If he isn’t promoted or isn’t able to live up to the astronomical expectations, then McMahon could be a sleeper pick in the light air of Colorado.

Worst Danny Salazar in the 13th round. Salazar is such a tough pitcher to figure out. When he’s on, he’s lights out and has top of the rotation stuff. When he’s not on, he’s a good AAA pitcher. The problem with drafting him is what are you going to get? The 13th round was probably a little high for Salazar and he easily could have been picked in the later rounds or on the waiver wire.

7th pick – Underwood, Iowa

Yours truly, I discussed my picks in part one.

8th pick – Underwood, Iowa

Best Travis Shaw in the 12th round. A 30 HR, 100 RBI, 10 SB guy for a team that will score a ton of runs and really utilize Miller Park’s hitter’s dimensions. Good value for a third baseman in the 12th.

Worst Justin Upton in the 4th round. Characterized as, “the type of pick I told myself I wouldn’t take, and hated it as soon as his name rolled off my tongue”. He’s basically underachieved his entire career except in a walk year. Now he’s got his big deal and legitimate questions exist about his motivation.

9th pick – Kansas City, Missouri

Best Ian Kinsler in the 17th round. Kinsler has always put up solid numbers and that shouldn’t change with his move west. With Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun, adding Kinsler to that offense should help escalate his run totals. He also should be able to run the bases with some ease as pitchers are not going to want to throw fastballs to those 2, 3 and 4 hitters in that lineup.

Worst Fernando Rodney in the 11th round. See Danny Salazar, above. The problem with Rodney is you don’t know if he’s going to be April 2017 Rodney or the Rodney the Diamondbacks had at the end of last year. Taking Rodney in the 11th round was a stretch regardless.

10th pick – Kansas City, Missouri

Best Daniel Murphy in the 13th round. Murphy underwent knee surgery last off season and is just now getting into game shape. When healthy, he’s one of the best hitters in the game and the lineup will provide plenty of opportunities for strong RBI and runs. He was listed as the 5th best second baseman and a Top 50 overall player when he is on the field. Patience will pay off with this draft pick.

Worst Jonathan Villar in the 16th round. Taking Villar probably wasn’t a horrible pick in the 16th round but with Milwaukee’s depth, Villar may not see a lot of at-bats. Granted, he has middle infield eligibility but Orlando Arcia and Eric Sogard seem to have the middle locked up.

11th pick – Kansas City, Missouri

Best Ian Happ in the 14th round. This was a player that I really wanted and couldn’t pull the trigger on earlier. Happ is penciled in as the starting center fielder for a Chicago Cubs team that has World Series aspirations. I think Happ is going to have a huge year.

Worst Billy Hamilton in the 7th round. Hamilton is your one-trick pony. When he gets on, he’s almost guaranteed to get you a stolen base. The problem is him getting on base. Taking him in the 7th round was a stretch for a one category player.

12th pick – Kansas City, Missouri

Best Jonathan Schoop in the 5th round. I think Schoop is an under the radar player who doesn’t get a lot of attention because of teammate Manny Machado and the fact he’s a second baseman. I have him as a Top 3 position player and with him being projected anywhere from 30-31 home runs and 91-99 RBI (Steamer, Zeile and ZiPS), that is a solid 5th round middle infield pick.

Worst Gerrit Cole in the 7th round. This was this team’s first starting pitcher. He took Kenley Jansen in the 4th round. I think Cole will have a good year as a number three or four for Houston but having him as your number one fantasy starting pitcher probably isn’t a good sign for your starting pitcher depth.

So there you have it. The best and worst picks of the draft as selected by my league mates. As always, a fantasy baseball draft is a great time to get together with friends, catch up on life events and, most importantly, ridicule each and every pick. With that said, let’s play ball and see how right or wrong we are with these picks 162 games from now.