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Preliminary 2016 Running Back Redraft Ranking Tiers

July 6, 2016 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Todd Gurley joins Le’Veon Bell at the top of our preliminary RB tiers before a drop-off into the second group of the best backs in fantasy football.

Following up our preliminary quarterback tiers, here are the preliminary running back redraft ranking tiers for the 2016 season.

Note the players are only tiered, not ranked within their groups, so focus on the tiers as opposed to where a player is situated relative to other running backs in their own tier.

Expect detailed player projections and rankings, plus some fantasy football player commentary in the coming weeks. Comment below with your feedback.

Tier 1

Le’Veon Bell
Todd Gurley

Tier 2

Adrian Peterson
David Johnson
Jamaal Charles
Matt Forte

Tier 3

Danny Woodhead
DeMarco Murray
Devonta Freeman
Jonathan Stewart
Lamar Miller

Tier 4

C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin
Eddie Lacy
Ezekiel Elliott ®
Jay Ajayi
LeSean McCoy

Tier 5

Ameer Abdullah
Carlos Hyde
Dion Lewis
Frank Gore
Mark Ingram
Melvin Gordon
T.J. Yeldon
Thomas Rawls

Tier 6

Chris Ivory
Duke Johnson
Giovani Bernard
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Langford
Justin Forsett
Latavius Murray
Matt Jones
Ryan Mathews
Shaun Draughn

Tier 7

Bilal Powell
Charles Sims
Chris Johnson
Darren Sproles
DeAngelo Williams
Isaiah Crowell
Karlos Williams
LeGarrette Blount
Rashad Jennings
Shane Vereen
Spencer Ware

Tier 8

C.J. Spiller
Chris Thompson
Darren McFadden
Javorius Allen
Jerick McKinnon
Ronnie Hillman
Tevin Coleman
Theo Riddick

FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Fantasy Football Player Rankings Second Opinion

July 13, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Even matching his fantasy quarterback ranking from last season at QB16 is too high for San Francisco 49ers Colin Kaepernick, according to Tony’s second opinion of our rankings.

July means summer, barbeques, and enjoying time outside. It also means that NFL training camps start at the end of the month!

With the NFL season right around the corner, fantasy football drafts are already underway. Owners are barreling into an enormous amounts of fantasy football information, trying to make sure they are fully prepared for their draft and the upcoming season.

The most hotly debated topic amongst fantasy football players every year is, of course, player rankings. Fantasy football is a prediction game, and if we all thought the same about the players, it would be a pretty boring game!

Draft Buddy recently rolled out their fantasy football player rankings, prepared by Dave Stringer and Mike MacGregor, for the 2015 NFL season. My job is to analyze those rankings and identify some players that are I feel are currently ranked too high or too low by Dave and Mike.

Got an opinion? Great! Let us know what side of these player rankings you fall on in the comments below, or single out some other players whose rankings you strongly disagree with, and why.

Ranked Too High

Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins

Current Rank: QB6

Tannehill has been jumping up fantasy draft boards the last few weeks. He has the offensive weapons around him, but they are not considered studs like other players on teams with quarterbacks projected below Tannehill. I’d rather have Cam Newton, who has a more proven tight end in Greg Olsen and wide receiver in Kelvin Benjamin, or Matt Ryan who has Julio Jones and Roddy White, or Russell Wilson who is a threat with his legs and has Jimmy Graham. Tannehill finished 2014 as QB10, but all those quarterbacks mentioned earlier finished above Tannehill and should do so again in 2015.

Colin Kaepernick, 49ers

Current Rank: QB16

The San Francisco 49ers are going through a major overhaul in 2015. They lost Head Coach Jim Harbaugh, lost veteran starting running back Frank Gore, and their defense has taken a massive hit due to retirements and team changes. The 49ers are going to lean on Kaepernick, who frankly just is not a very good quarterback. In 2014 Kaep finished as QB16. Veteran receivers Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith will try to help Kaepernick, but there aren’t many other threats on this team. I’d rather have Jay Cutler who has Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte, or Teddy Bridgewater who has Adrian Peterson back and young fast receivers.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Current Rank: RB16

After an underwhelming rookie season, Hyde is in line to become the main workhorse for the San Francisco 49ers. The problem is, I do not think his talent and opportunity match the hype he is receiving. As I stated above with Kaepernick, the 49ers do not have any outstanding threats on offense, so defenses will load the box to stop the run and force Kaepernick to throw to his veteran receivers. Also, the 49ers brought in Reggie Bush to be the main pass catching back, which limits Hyde’s workload. Finally, the 49ers drafted a rookie, Mike Davis, who is capable to step in if Hyde struggles, putting Hyde on a short leash. I feel the bullish predictions attributed to Hyde are a bit overboard. I prefer Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, rookie Melvin Gordon and Giovani Bernard, all ranked a tier below, over Hyde.

LeGarrette Blount, Patriots

Current Rank: RB25

Blount changed teams part of the way through the 2014 season and joined the New England Patriots. He was very productive when given the ball, however, with Bill Belichick calling the shots, the running back position will always be a random outcome for the running backs. With Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, Travaris Cadet, and James White all threatening to steal carries, Blount may have to split repetitions more than he’d like. I have a hard time putting so much faith into a New England running back. I prefer Chris Ivory, rookie T.J. Yeldon or Joseph Randle all above Blount.

Golden Tate, Lions

Current Rank: WR25

In 2014, Golden Tate found himself playing opposite the best wide receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson. Or at least, that was the plan going into last season. Through the first 9 games, Calvin Johnson was hobbled and was either limited during play or missed some games. During those games, Tate had 66 catches on 93 targets, 909 yards and three TDs. During the last 7 games when Johnson was healthy, Tate had 33 catches on 51 targets, 422 yards, and one TD. Johnson has had a full offseason to become healthy. Tate’s numbers should not be as bad as the second half of 2014, but will not be near his numbers during the first half of 2014. Proceed with caution when drafting Tate this year. I prefer Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall and Sammy Watkins over Tate.

[Editor’s note: We actually adjusted Tate’s earlier ranking down to 25th after Tony wrote this article, and now he is ranked below each of the receivers Tony mentions here, but instead of striking this section I decided to leave it and give credit where credit is due – we did have him too high.]

Donte Moncrief, Colts

Current Rank: WR60

When the Indianapolis Colts drafted rookie wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the 2015 NFL Draft, Donte Moncrief’s value took a massive hit. I feel Dorsett will overtake Moncrief on the depth chart and be the Colts’ third wide receiver behind TY Hilton and Andre Johnson. It will be quite the battle during training camp between the two. Dorsett has better physical abilities and is a smaller receiver, which could work well in the slot. Regardless of who wins the camp battle, I see a 50/50 time split between the two receivers which hurts both their stats tremendously. I prefer Eddie Royal, Steve Johnson and Victor Cruz over Moncrief.

Martellus Bennett, Bears

Current Rank: TE5

Bennett was a big, popular target for quarterback Jay Cutler in 2014, so much that he vaulted himself into the top five TE last season. However, this offseason, Bennett has been pushing for a new contract from the Chicago Bears, so much that he kept himself out of voluntary OTAs. He did report to the mini camp, but there was still a push for a contract. The Bears have roughly eight tight ends on the team currently, which one might infer they are preparing for a holdout or time without Bennett since they don’t seem likely to offer him a new contract. If Bennett does hold out or is traded to a new team that will pay him, Bennett’s stats might take a hit. It’s worth monitoring in the next few weeks prior to drafts, but Bennett is very risky ranked so high for tight ends currently. I prefer Julius Thomas over Bennett.

Ranked Too Low

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Current Rank: QB20

Bridgewater was arguably the best rookie quarterback in 2014. He will take another big step forward in 2015. With elite running back Adrian Peterson back, some pressure is taken off of Bridgewater, allowing him to focus on the receivers that now have some lighter coverage due to Peterson demanding an 8-man box. Bridgewater could end up as a legit QB1 this season finding himself among the Top 12 quarterbacks in the league. I prefer Bridgewater over Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick and Carson Palmer.

Eli Manning, Giants

Current Rank: QB11

Manning must have loved rookie Odell Beckham Jr. finally making his way onto the field because Beckham provided a big, fast, physical receiving option for Manning that was lost when Victor Cruz went out with season ending tendon tear in his knee. With the addition of Shane Vereen at running back and Cruz likely returning from injury, Manning will be passing a lot more in 2015. Manning finished as QB8 in 2014 and should find himself right there again in 2015. With an improved defense, watch out for the Giants to make a deep run this year. I prefer Manning over Ryan Tannehill and Tom Brady, even if Brady’s suspension is cut in half.

Chris Ivory, Jets

Current Rank: RB27

Ivory is a volume running back meaning he receives the majority of the teams rushing attempts. Even with receiving only 56% of the share of the rush attempts last season, Ivory was able to finish as the RB19. Ivory remains the best running back on the New York Jets, even with the additions of Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy. With Brandon Marshall now in town to help spread the defense out, Ivory should find more holes in defenses. I prefer Ivory over Isaiah Crowell and LeGarrette Blount.

Ryan Mathews, Eagles

Current Rank: RB42

After staying healthy for all 16 games in 2013, Mathews suffered an MCL sprain in Week 2 in 2014. He pushed his way through the injury to only suffer an ankle injury late in the season. A total of 6 games was not in the plan for Mathews in 2014, who is a very good runner when healthy. He now is backup to the best running back in 2014, DeMarco Murray, both of which have relocated to the Philadelphia Eagles. With Murray having logged a lot of miles in 2014, I expect head coach Chip Kelly to lean heavily on the run and have a balanced attack of Murray and Mathews. If I had to guess, I see a 65/35 workload split, which is more than what Mathews is projected now. The Eagles had the best graded offensive line blocking in 2014, even above the phenomenal Dallas Cowboys, who were second ranked. If Mathews can stay healthy, he could a great flex/RB2 option for fantasy leagues. I prefer Mathews over Bishop Sankey, Charles Sims and Ameer Abdullah.

Martavis Bryant, Steelers

Current Rank: WR29

I am all-in on Bryant this year. He only played 10 games in 2014 but finished with 26 receptions for 549 yards for an average of 21.1 yards per reception, which was the highest for a wide receiver scoring over 100 fantasy points for the season. With QB Ben Roethlisberger still able to sling the ball and playing opposite the most consistent wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, Bryant should excel into legit WR2 numbers this season. Also, rumor has it that Bryant trained in MMA this offseason to help improve his handwork for maneuvering around defenders. Bryant is taking his career seriously and as a fantasy player, I want all the Bryant shares I can get. I prefer Bryant over Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace and Jeremy Maclin.

Devin Funchess, Panthers

Current Rank: WR66

In my opinion, Funchess is the most underrated player of the 2015 rookie wide receivers, strongly based on the team/environment he was drafted to. He is now teammates with stud quarterback Cam Newton, sophomore receiver Kelvin Benjamin and veteran tight end Greg Olsen. Funchess provides the Panthers with another tall (6’5”) option at wide receiver opposite Benjamin. If Funchess can grasp this offense quickly (and I believe he can), he has a chance to become Newton’s favorite red zone target. I prefer Funchess over a host of players, including Malcom Floyd, Torrey Smith and Terrance Williams.

Mychal Rivera, Raiders

Current Rank: TE32

The Oakland Raiders have made all the right moves the past two years to help push their team in the right direction. They have sophomore quarterback Derek Carr who showed promise in 2014 and the best rookie wide receiver in Amari Cooper. They also have a young bruising running back Latavius Murray, but also brought in Roy Helu (sleeper alert) to help with the passing downs. Tight end Rivera received 100 targets in 2014, which was the seventh most among tight ends where he finished as a modest TE17. He should continue to be a target hog in Oakland as rookie tight end Clive Walford learns the NFL game. Rookie tight ends rarely pan out their first year. Assuming he improves his catching abilities, Rivera could be a draft day sleeper for a team waiting on tight ends. I prefer Rivera over Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert and Richard Rodgers.