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Preseason Week 2 Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 19, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Benjamin about to be carted off. Left knee. pic.twitter.com/EBWly497EL

— Joe Person (@josephperson) August 19, 2015

Here is a recap of up to the minute (Kelvin Benjamin!) NFL news and notes since our last update before Week 1 of preseason. We are still a day away from more game action but we’ll call it Preseason Week 2 news and notes. These will factor into our next projections and rankings changes, later today or tomorrow.

Free Agents of Interest

Ray Rice

Arizona Cardinals

The team signed RB Chris Johnson to a one-year contract with minimal guarantees, heavier on the incentives. We’ll slot him in behind Andre Ellington and rookie David Johnson on the depth chart for now. We aren’t that interested in drafting CJ, unless ridiculously cheap with a roster spot to burn perhaps, but it’s a signal to be even less confident in the entire Cards RB corps.

Baltimore Ravens

WR Breshad Perriman continues to miss practice after practice (12 straight as of Tuesday). Twitter reports say he had an MRI and it came back normal, and the Ravens expect him back in about a week. The missed time does not inspire a lot of confidence Perriman will have a significant fantasy impact this season.

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy limped off the field Tuesday with a hamstring injury. MRI results were negative (or should I say results were positive?), but looks like he’s out for preseason and plans to be ready for a Week 1 return.

Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown and the latest, rookie Karlos Williams, are all missing practice due to injuries. Educated guess is Jackson is still the RB2 to own in this backfield. With all of these injuries Ray Rice’s name keeps popping up as a possible signing.

Listened to a Bills reporter Sal Capaccio on the radio Monday say the QB competition is quickly becoming a two-player race between Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. E.J. Manuel is a distant third. None are worth drafting except in deep start two QB leagues at this point, of course.

Carolina Panthers

I apparently can’t get this update written fast enough! Kelvin Benjamin went down during practice this morning (Wednesday) with an apparent knee injury. One of those didn’t touch anyone when it happened injuries, which are usually not good. Waiting initial results. Worst case, torn ACL and out for the year. Best case, simple sprain or tweak of the knee. Outcome could have a major impact on rookie WR Devin Funchess (who also tweaked him hamstring, by the way), Cam Newton and Greg Olsen.

Update August 20: Confirmed, Benjamin tore his ACL and is out for the season. We’ll distribute his hefty targets between rookie Devin Funchess, Jerricho Cotchery and Corey (Philly) Brown plus Greg Olsen, with the remainder falling into a generic “other player” bucket (like Ted Ginn, Jr. or Jarrett Boykin). Do not draft Benjamin. Funchess’ ADP will rise sharply. Cam down. Olsen a slight bump perhaps. He was already projected and ranked pretty high.

Chicago Bears

Rookie WR Kevin White is out for an extended period after requiring surgery on his shin due a stress fracture. He’ll go on regular season PUP at a minimum, missing at least the first six games, and his entire rookie season is in jeopardy. Do not draft.

Alshon Jeffery has a calf injury but it isn’t considered serious. There is a little risk here but on the plus side Jeffery’s targets could be off the charts with White out indefinitely.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Darren McFadden was removed from the PUP list this week, but pretty clear this is Joseph Randle’s job to lose at this point because McFadden is so far behind.

Denver Broncos

Reports are there is no clear backup or handcuff pick for starting RB C.J. Anderson between Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Both looked good in the first preseason game. Hard to imagine it will be Hillman when we hit the regular season.

Emmanuel Sanders is missing practice with the injury du jour, a strained hamstring. He is doubtful for their next preseason game.

Houston Texans

Starting QB watch: Brian Hoyer started the first preseason game. Ryan Mallett will start the second. It is still a coin flip call with no timeline on a decision.

Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Marqise Lee continues to miss practice with a hamstring injury. Allen Hurns should start opposite Allen Robinson at the beginning of the regular season.

Miami Dolphins

DeVante Parker appears 2-3 weeks away from returning to the team. He could make an impact this season and is worth the late pick in redraft leagues he currently costs as your second or third bench WR.

Damien Williams, not rookie Jay Ajayi, holds down the backup RB spot to Lamar Miller at this time. Ajayi only recently returned to practice.

Minnesota Vikings

The team lost RT Phil Loadholt to a torn Achilles’. While this didn’t prevent me from taking Adrian Peterson as the second overall pick in a recent moderate stakes redraft league, it isn’t good news for the Vikings running game and I thought worth mentioning.

New Orleans Saints

C.J. Spiller had knee surgery recently, described as a “maintenance” procedure to clean things up, and is expected to be out 2-4 weeks. That puts him in line to return for the start of the season, but it is an ominous sign for a RB with a bit of a track record being dinged up, and getting drafted relatively high on a team with other RB options. Moving down and marking Spiller as an “avoid” in our next rankings update. Khiry Robinson is one to watch, perhaps even target.

New York Giants

Rueben Randle is missing practice with knee tendinitis, while reports of Victor Cruz’s recovery continue to be positive. Cruz should be drafted ahead of Randle at this point. If Cruz is healthy enough to start the regular season, and it seems to be trending that way, then might as well leave Randle for the waiver wire in most leagues.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE Zach Ertz required surgery for a sports hernia and will sit out the rest of the preseason. Strangely enough, this happened not long after my last news and notes update in which I expressed buyer’s remorse drafting Ertz. He is expected back for Week 1 (albeit that seems a little optimistic) and we already moved him down our rankings slightly and slapped an “avoid” icon on him.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins TE position is decimated. Niles Paul (ankle) and Logan Paulsen (toe) are both out for the season, while Jordan Reed is, as usual, missing time due to injury (hamstring). Reed is hopeful to play in the team’s third preseason game. He’s a nice late flier pick, but health is a major concern.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Houston Texans Team Report

July 21, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

Houston Texans RB Arian Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy.

QB Ryan Mallett

Acquired from the New England Patriots during the 2014 offseason, Mallett spent most of last season buried on the depth chart behind journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Given an opportunity to start near the end of the season, he played well in one start before suffering a torn pectoral muscle in his next game which landed him on injured reserve. While Fitzpatrick was traded in the offseason, Brian Hoyer was signed in free agency and he will battle Mallett for the starter’s spot. While Hoyer’s experience gives him a slight edge, look for Mallett to win the job based on his higher upside and stronger arm. However, even if he becomes the starter, look for the Texans head coach Bill O’Brien to replicate his winning formula from 2014 which consisted of a strong running attack and solid defense. Mallett should be waiver wire material in redraft formats.

QB Brian Hoyer

Hoyer’s career prospects appeared to be on the rise during the first half of the Cleveland Browns season last year as he guided the team to a 6-3 record to open the year. From that, his performance declined badly as he struggled over his final five games, throwing just two touchdowns with nine interceptions and winning just one game. Benched for Johnny Manziel, Hoyer wasn’t re-signed during the offseason by Cleveland and will spend 2015 in Houston. While Hoyer has more experience for the starting position with the Texans than his competition in Ryan Mallett, it is difficult to predict him winning the job given his lack of upside and poor finish to the 2014 season.

RB Arian Foster

When healthy, Foster rates amongst the top running backs in the league both in real world and fantasy football terms. Equally adept as a runner and a receiver, Foster has proven capable of delivering big plays and of handling a workhorse role. Of course, the caveat there is when he is healthy. He missed eight games during the 2013 season as well as three games last year. Despite the missed time, he was one of fantasy’s most valuable running backs last season totaling 1,246 rushing yards, 327 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. With head coach Bill O’Brien having stated that the Texans will once again lean heavily on Foster in 2015, the only issue with adding him to your fantasy roster is his injury history. At 29 years of age, Foster is worth the risk as a mid to lower tier RB1 due to his workhorse role as a runner/receiver in Houston’s offense.

RB Alfred Blue

Taken in the 6th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Blue emerged as Arian Foster’s main backup in his rookie season, finishing the year with 528 rushing yards, a pair of touchdowns to go along with 15 receptions for 113 yards and another score. Filling in for an injured Foster, the 6’2”, 222 pound Blue played well in games against the Giants (88 total yards) and Browns (156 total yards) but struggled badly against a strong Bengals run defense, gaining just 46 yards on 16 carries. A middling talent, Blue averaged just 3.1 yards per carry which would generally relegate him to low end handcuff status. However, Arian Foster has missed 11 games over the past two seasons and has played in 16 games just twice during his six year career. Did we mention the Texans run the ball a lot? Blue rates as a must have handcuff for Foster owners but we have a hard time rating him as being worthy of a late round flyer if you didn’t draft Foster.

RB Chris Polk

Released by the Eagles in the offseason, Polk joins a crowded running back depth chart in Houston where he hopes to emerge as Arian Foster’s main backup. To do so, he will have to unseat second year player Alfred Blue who is coming off a decent but hardly spectacular rookie season. Polk earned a role at midseason last year working as a short yardage specialist, finishing the season with 172 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. With a nose for the end zone (seven career touchdowns in 14 games over two years), Polk would rate as a worthy handcuff to Foster owners provided he wins that role in the preseason.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

What to make of Hopkins fantasy prospects in 2015? Well, the 2013 1st round pick supplanted future Hall of Famer Andre Johnson as the Texans top wide receiver last season and his emergence resulted in Johnson requesting his release given his expected reduced role in Houston’s offense had he stuck around. In his second season in the league, Hopkins caught an impressive 76 of his 127 targets for 1,210 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 15.9 yards per reception, topping 15 yards-per-reception for the 2nd consecutive year. An emerging talent, the only question marks with Hopkins are whether he is a true number one receiver, capable of maintaining his production with more attention from opposing defenses, along with the Texans subpar quarterback depth chart. Well, the team’s quarterback shouldn’t be much worse (or better) than a year ago and we view Hopkins as having more than enough talent as a team’s leading wide receiver. He rates as an upper tier WR2, albeit one who brings some inconsistency. He had eight games last year with eight or fewer fantasy points.

WR Cecil Shorts

After a solid coming out party in 2012 when Shorts caught 55 passes for 979 yards and seven touchdowns, he has struggled over the past two seasons with injuries, inconsistency and subpar quarterback play as contributing factors in his declining production. With Jacksonville choosing to go with younger players at the wide receiver position, Shorts was left to sign with the Texans this offseason where he will battle Nate Washington and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for playing time. With Shorts having caught barely more than half of his career targets (176 of 350) and his yards-per-reception having declined from 17.8 to 11.8 to 10.5, we aren’t confident that a career resurgence is in store for him in Houston, especially given the team’s issues at quarterback. Even if Shorts emerges as the starter opposite DeAndre Hopkins and given the team’s lack of a proven receiving options at tight end, we still rate him as little more than a WR5.

WR Nate Washington

Entering his 10th year in the league, Washington joins the Texans in 2015 after spending the last six years with the divisional rival Tennessee Titans. After topping 1,000 receiving yards for the 1st time in his career in 2011, over the past three years Washington has reverted to his main role for most of his career, that of a deep threat who occasionally pulls off a big week. With a reduced role last season in Tennessee, he managed just 40 receptions (his lowest total since 2008), 72 targets (lowest since 2007) and two touchdowns (the lowest total of his career). In Houston, Washington will battle fellow free agent signee Cecil Shorts and rookie 3rd round pick Jaelen Strong for a spot in the starting lineup. While Shorts is the favorite to win that role, Washington should emerge as a solid deep threat given his career average of 15.3 yards per reception. With Shorts’ injury history and Strong’s lack of experience, Washington should once again reel off a handful of strong performances. He rates as a potential waiver claim should injuries strike Shorts or DeAndre Hopkins.

WR Jaelen Strong

With the departure of Andre Johnson, the Texans spent the offseason replenishing their depth chart at wide receiver. Part of that equation was drafting Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong in the 3rd round. At 6’4” and 212 pounds, Strong has the size to emerge as a solid blocker in the Texans run heavy offense. However, he lacks top end speed and faces competition from veterans Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington for the starting position opposite DeAndre Hopkins. While we don’t rate Strong as being worthy of a roster spot in redraft formats, he does rate as a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats and a player that could emerge as a starter at some point during 2015.

TE Garrett Graham

After posting career highs across the board in 2013 with 89 targets, 49 receptions, 545 yards and five touchdowns, there was some optimism that Graham would emerge as a low end TE1 last season. However, with the tight ends in new head coach Bill O’Brien’s offense not being heavily utilized in the passing game, and Graham suffering a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss five games, he managed just 18 receptions for 197 yards and a single touchdown. With 2014 3rd round pick C.J. Fiedorowicz nipping at his heels and the Texans going with a tight end unfriendly offensive game plan, Graham shouldn’t be on the fantasy radar until he strings together a few solid performances.

TE C.J. Fiedorowicz

The Texans spent a 3rd round pick to acquire Fiedorowicz in last year’s draft and watched him languish on the bench in his rookie season. Used primarily as a blocker, Fiedorowicz was targeted just seven times but possesses the most upside of the Texans tight ends at 6’6” and 265 pound with decent speed. Due to the Texans lack of size at the wide receiver position, Fiedorowicz could emerge as a weapon in the red zone and that is likely his avenue to being fantasy relevant in 2015. He rates as a waiver wire addition in redraft formats and as a low end dynasty prospect.

Also see: Houston Texans IDP Team Report · Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC South

June 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Can Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles take a big step forward in Year 2 of his NFL career? The Jags appear to be putting the right pieces in place to help him succeed.

Can Jacksonville Jaguars QB Blake Bortles take a big step forward in Year 2 of his NFL career? The Jags appear to be putting the right pieces in place to help him succeed.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Houston Texans

  • Don’t you hate projecting quarterback performance when you are virtually certain the expected starting QB for Week 1 is not going to be the same starting QB for Week 17? (Or if he is there will still be 2-3 switches in between.) The Texans are particularly bad this year. And I like Brian Hoyer as a player. Appeared to be a great leader and teammate with the Cleveland Browns. Hard to imagine Ryan Mallett not getting a chance to show his stuff at some point.
  • Dave pointed out in his early rankings series that Foster had the second most fantasy points per game last season. That is great, and worthy of a high draft pick, but two ways to look at his career in deciding to draft him this season. One, he’s missed time 3 of the past 4 seasons. Two, he’s played 13 or more games 3 of the past 4 seasons. This is one where I’d rank him a little lower than his projections, but don’t discount him too much.
  • Andre Johnson is gone to the Colts, leaving DeAndre Hopkins the heir apparent. He can fill those shoes. Looking at a 90-1,275-6 season on 144 targets, good for Top 12 in PPR. Uncertain QB situation is still okay here given they are veterans, and Cecil Shorts and a rookie won’t command nearly the targets of Hopkins.
  • Positive reports for C.J. Fiedorowicz recently, but the Texans just didn’t pass to their TE position very much at all last season. It would have to be a pretty deep league to draft any of these guys.

Indianapolis Colts

  • Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers as first QB off the board this season? We’ve got Rodgers slightly ahead, but Luck’s got a strong argument in his favour since we’ve projected him for 50 more pass attempts. They run about the same, too. Rodgers is more efficient but wouldn’t argue with you taking Luck.
  • Welcome to the Colts, Frank Gore. There are a lot of bullish opinions on Gore from fantasy players since the signing. Respect where respect is due, but lets not get too crazy over a 32 year old RB who shouldn’t be that far north of 200 carries. We’ve got him sub-1,000 yards, and if anything, I think our 8 TD projection is a little high. Never really a big TD guy, Gore has hit 8 TD five times, only once with under 258 carries. That said, there isn’t much behind him on the depth chart.
  • Is it still T.Y. Hilton’s show or Andre Johnson’s to take over? Luck and Hilton have a great rapport. Don’t see that changing. Johnson is a better receiver than he’s probably given credit for having played with some terrible quarterbacks in his career. If Luck can tap into that early, our AJ projections might be conservative at 77-925-7. Don’t automatically assume Donte Moncrief beats out rookie Phillip Dorsett as WR3.
  • Dwayne Allen is the preferred TE on the Colts, but will never excel as long as Coby Fleener is healthy, and even then it is tough with the receiver depth.
  • Overall, this is an offense you want a piece of on your fantasy team – even edging out Denver at this point – but many mouths to feed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Are we looking at something like a second season Ryan Tannehill or a second season … dare I say? … Blaine Gabbert, from Blake Bortles in 2015? The former. The Jaguars appear to be doing the right things putting talented skill players around Bortles, this offseason signing Julius Thomas and drafting T.J. Yeldon. Still modest projections, nothing that is going to help fantasy teams cruise to the playoffs this season, but one to watch for his progress.
  • It’s a pretty full depth chart at RB to keep track of, but signs indicate Yeldon will be the main ball carrier and someone else like hot prospect Bernard Pierce will be out of a job. Denard Robinson is a dynamic player who should catch a fair number of passes.
  • The wide receiver depth chart is perhaps worse than the running backs in terms or no one really stands out. Justin Blackmon would be but he is out of the picture. Allen Robinson, Marqise Lee
    , Allen Hurns – we’ve got Robinson the top dog but still projected 40th at WR.

  • Thomas takes a big hit in value losing Peyton Manning. His double-digit TD seasons are over but he could keep the receptions and yards up with a lot of targets in a 16-game season (something he’s never done, by the way).

Tennessee Titans

  • Not a lot to say about rookie QB Marcus Mariota. The projections are for redraft. He isn’t a draft consideration in all but the deepest leagues and ones that start two quarterbacks.
  • The Bishop Sankey experiment didn’t last long, as fantasy owners are ready to forget him and anoint rookie David Cobb, “the guy”. A player’s rookie season to second season can make a world of difference. Maybe Sankey falls in that category. We’ve got him projected ahead of Cobb, but its going to be tough for any RB to have sustained success on the Titans, because…
  • … the passing game looks potentially terrible. Rookie QB and young, questionable receivers. Not expecting any receiver to top 900 yards.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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